Investment decisions and the soft budget constraint

This paper investigates the investment behaviour of a large panel of Hungarian firms in the period 1989–99, in order to assess the impact of institutional and regulatory changes on the efficiency of credit allocation. We find that the role of financial factors for investment decisions has changed significantly after the introduction of major financial reforms, and that firms were affected differently depending on their ownership type. Reforms have hardened the budget constraint of private domestic firms, particularly small ones, and reduced informational problems for foreign‐owned firms. State‐owned firms remained subject to a soft budget constraint. In particular, small state firms became more sensitive to financial conditions, whereas large state firms were unaffected and kept operating under a soft budget constraint.     

Trade liberalization, heterogeneous firms and the soft budget constraint

We analyze the interaction between the soft budget constraint (SBC) and international trade by placing Segal’s (1998) SBC model within Melitz’s (2003) framework of international trade with heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. As in Segal’s model, SBC may result in moral hazard. The opening to international trade adds another sort of inefficiency. Some firms that would have become exporters in the absence of SBC choose to apply low effort and not export in order to extract a subsidy from the government. This effect takes place when the trade costs are sufficiently low. Overall, however, trade liberalization reduces inefficiencies generated by SBC. The number of firms subject to moral hazard SBC decreases, aggregate effort level increases and aggregate profits lost due to SBC-induced sub-optimal effort decline as trade costs decrease.     

全球金融危机对台湾决策思维的影响

2008年全球金融海啸使得发达国家面对自上世纪30年代以来最大的衰退，但是发展中国家如金砖四国却依然持续发展。许多经济学家严厉地警告，家计单位及企业的消费支出减少，而对产出的影响更为严重，此举迫使台湾不得不通过扩大消费的方式，来挽回疲弱的经济力。本文针对此次全球金融危机对于台湾当局在因应策略上，关于全球金融体制的崩溃分析、有关当局的处理布局、国际经济组织及先进国家处理经验及建立新的清算机制等因应之道做分析与探讨，提供政策建议，希望封尔後的金融布局有所帮助。     

Effects of financial constraints on export performance of firms during the global financial crisis: microeconomic evidence from Korea

This study uses a manufacturing firm-level panel data set of South Korea for 2006–2013 to investigate the effect of financial constraints on the export performance of firms, with particular emphasis on the corporate ownership structure. The empirical results show that foreign multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries are not affected by financial constraint during both crisis and noncrisis periods, implying advantages of foreign ownership. However, domestic firms suffer more from financial constraints on exports during crisis years. In particular, domestic firms without parent firms are financially constrained during both crisis and noncrisis periods. However, those with parent firms do not experience financial constraints during noncrisis periods, although they too suffer from them during crisis periods. Thus, parent–subsidiary linkage among domestic firms plays an important role in alleviating financial constraints on export activity in noncrisis years but not as much during crisis years. Therefore, domestic parent firms exhibit less resilience to the global financial crisis, in comparison to foreign MNC parent firms.     

Soft budget constraints and the property rights theory of ownership

Modeling the government make-or-buy decision, Hart and colleagues [Hart, O., Shleifer, S. and Vishny, R.W., 1997, The proper scope of government: Theory and an application to prisons, Quarterly Journal of Economics 112, 1127–1161] assume government providers are exogenously more replaceable than private providers. Instead, we posit government managers' soft incentives arise endogenously from their lack of control rights, because of rationally softer budget constraints.     

财务危机预测模型的构建

基于Logistic回归模型,选取中国制造业上市公司作为样本对财务危机预测进行研究。从企业的盈利能力、营运能力、偿债能力、成长能力、现金流量等方面出发,选取了10个财务预警指标,经过回归分析得出,总资产收益率、总资产周转率、资产负债率、主营业务增长率、经营活动现金净流量对负债的比率五项财务指标对上市公司发生财务危机有重要影响。从而提出要从提高盈利能力、提升营运能力、增强偿债能力、提高成长能力、保障现金流的充足几方面来应对财务危机。     

美国金融危机成因分析及对中国的警示

美国金融危机引发全球金融市场动荡。这场金融危机从美国的房地产市场开始，以惊人的速度蔓延，波及至信贷市场、资本市场，封全球尤其是西方金融机构和金融市场造成重大冲击，短期内升级为全球金融风暴。中国目前正处于资产价格上涨、信贷投放过度的经济环境之中，美国的金融危机给中国敲响了警钟。本文通过描述此次危机的发展脉络，在分析美国金融危机背景的基础上，从强化房地产按揭贷款业务风险管理，审慎推进资产证券化等六个方面得出了对中国的警示。     

The financial fragility and the crisis of the Greek government sector

The purpose of this paper is to develop Minskyan financial fragility indices for the government sector and to examine the financial structure of the Greek government before and after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis in 2009. We provide empirical evidence that clearly shows the growing financial fragility of the Greek public sector in the 2000s. We also assess the effectiveness of the implemented bailout adjustment programmes in Greece and claim that the conducted austerity measures and fiscal consolidation have not significantly improved the financial posture of the Greek government sector. We argue that the implementation of fiscal and wage austerity in an economy that lacks structural competitiveness produces prolonged recession and unemployment with adverse feedback effects on the financial fragility of the government.     

高校财务预算资金管理现状与提升策略研究

加强高校财务预算资金的管理和监督,提高资金使用效益,对于促进高等教育事业健康发展有着重要意义。通过分析新《高等学校财务制度》下高等学校财务预算管理中存在的问题,并提出相应的解决对策,以推动高校财务预算管理工作的进一步开展。     

R&D investment,cash holdings and the financial crisis: evidence from Korean corporate data

This article examines the real effects of the financial crisis in 2008 on corporate R&D investment by analyzing firm-level panel data from 2005 to 2011 obtained from KIS-VALUE, a Korean corporate finance database. I estimate a dynamic panel model of R&D investment that includes an after-crisis dummy to reflect the effects of the external finance supply shock after the financial crisis, an interaction term of the dummy and cash holdings to measure the marginal effect of cash holdings after the crisis, investment opportunities (sales and the q ratio) and financial positions as the debt-equity ratio. The estimation implies a negative yet relatively small impact of the credit supply shock from the financial crisis on R&D investment and the mitigation of the negative impacts by cash holdings after the onset of the financial crisis, whereas the data show decreasing R&D investment and sales for the whole period. Based on the data and the estimation, I find that firms were able to lessen the pressure from diminishing market demand before the crisis using external finance, but they had to use internal financial sources after the crisis smooth R&D investment.     

The countercyclical role of Italian local banks during the financial crisis

The article analyses the role of local banks in Italy during the 2008–2009 crisis from the perspective of the relationship lending model. During the crisis, the risk of cascading failures of financial organizations has dramatically increased, thus causing a return of attention to local banking as a possible source of countercyclical behaviours in the financial markets thanks to their ability to establish fiduciary long-term relationships with small businesses.

The purpose of this article is to test this hypothesis and to disentangle the response of local banks during the financial turmoil according to their governance structure and location. Our results show that non-independent local banks and, to a limited extent, cooperative banks located in the rural area actually played a significant countercyclical role across the crisis. Policy implications suggest that prudential supervision should rethink the indicators of systemic risk in order to differentiate banks according to their capability of mitigating it.     

Long-term investment sensitivity to cash flow and financial crisis

This study examined investment–cash flow sensitivity in unconstrained and constrained firms from 1980 to 2010 in a sample of Italian manufacturing firms. Investment sensitivity to cash flow decreased over time, and financially constrained firms showed little difference in the decline compared with unconstrained firms. Last, investment sensitivity to cash flow increased during the financial crisis of 2008.     

全球金融危机中消费型增值税对我国经济的影响

实行消费型增值税是我国的一项重大减税政策,是应对世界金融危机的积极财政政策的重要组成部分,是增加企业利润的有利因素,对刺激投资和经济回暖起到了一定的积极作用。     

中国金融危机法构建的探讨

本次震撼全球的美国金融危机给世人敲响了金融危机不定时爆发的警钟。全球化背景下金融危机的传染性更强、金融风险更大。中国相对脆弱的金融体系需要探索如何防范金融系统性风险,如何健全金融监管体系的制度与法制建设。随着人民币国际化过程深入,制定并颁布《金融危机法》能克服目前金融监管纵向监管体系缺陷,对提高我国金融监管机构应对金融危机能力、稳定金融市场与保增长具有重要意义。     

Investment and financial constraints in Hungarian agriculture

We investigate credit market imperfections in Hungarian agriculture. Farmers with low debts and using mainly rented land are liquidity constrained. We find also evidence for the presence of soft budget constraint for high debt and corporate farms.     

The global financial crisis and protectionism: Substitution from tariffs to non-tariff measures

This study empirically investigates the relationships between tariffs and non-tariff measures before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). The panel analysis is based on traded products of 70 countries from 1997 to 2015. For developed countries, we find that tariffs and non-tariff measures were complementary before the crisis, but they became substitutional afterward. We do not find such shift for developing countries. We also run the analysis by income levels and by types of products and observe differential effects of the GFC on the relationship between the two trade policies.     

Sovereign credit ratings,growth volatility and the global financial crisis

Using monthly data from January 1996 to May 2010 for a panel of 76 developed and emerging economies and adopting an instrumental variable (IV) estimation technique by correcting for both heterogeneity and endogeneity with the generalized two-stage least squares (G2SLS, EC2SLS) procedure method suggested by Balestra and Varadharajan-Krishnakumar (1987) and Baltagi and Li (1995), this article provides empirical evidence that volatility of per capita GDP growth is reduced when there are positive changes in credit ratings; in other words when sovereign credit risk improves. To deal with potential simultaneity between sovereign credit ratings and output volatility, a system (3SLS) approach is undertaken, and our findings remain robust. By weakening the volatility dampening effects of ratings changes, it is found that the global financial crisis (GFC) has enhanced macroeconomic volatility. One of the channels via which sovereign rating changes affect growth volatility is the financial markets’ repricing of sovereign default risk that is reflected in sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads and its volatility.     

Soft budget constraint theories: From centralization to the market

This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the effect of soft budget constraints on economies in transition from centralization to capitalism; it also reviews our understanding of soft budget constraints in general. It focuses on the conception of the soft budget constraint syndrome as a commitment problem. We show that the two features of soft budget constraints in centralized economies – ex post renegotiation of firms' financial plans and a close administrative relationship between firms and the centre – are intrinsically related. We examine a series of theories (based on the commitment-problem approach) that explain shortage, lack of innovation in centralized economies, devolution, and banking reform in transition economies. Moreover, we argue that soft budget constraints also have an influence on major issues in economics, such as the determination of the boundaries and capital structure of a firm. Finally, we show that soft budget constraints theory sheds light on financial crises and economic growth.     

Economics of the crisis and the crisis of economics

Abstract

The macroeconomic instability revealed in the recent deep recession steams from the condition of balance sheets. Generally high leverage and strained maturity mismatches build up slowly but generate a financial structure so brittle that the impulse that eventually sends it crashing is hard to identify. The US financial system had been rendered more vulnerable by the financial reforms that swept away the Glass-Steagall regulations. The crisis made the inadquancies of the ruling macroeconomic paradigm painfully obvious. DSGE models generally did not include a financial sector and did not take the possibility of dramatic instability seriously. Unanticipated violations of budget constraints do not fit easily into general equilibrium models.