重启国债期货市场的必要性和可行性分析

1995年"3.27"国债期货事件之后,我国的国债期货市场暂停了近20年。目前,随着我国经济的发展,重启国债期货市场具有必要性和可行性。一方面,国债期货交易有利于管理利率风险,发展我国国债市场,完善我国金融体系并推动我国市场利率化进程,重启国债期货市场有其必要性;另一方面,我国市场利率化已经取得了一定成果,国债现货市场越来越壮大,并且期货交易法律法规和监管制度逐渐完善,为重启国债期货市场提供了可能性。     

重大风险事件对中国商品期货市场的冲击效应——基于学生分布的随机波动模型

为检验重大风险事件对我国商品期货市场的冲击效应,本文在构建基于重大风险事件的随机波动模型的基础上,运用贝叶斯MCMC推断技术对中国商品期货市场进行了实证研究。实证结果表明:经济事件、政治事件和自然灾害对中国商品期货市场的收益和波动均存在显著的冲击,并且,"利好事件"和"利空事件"对收益和波动的影响均具有显著的不对称特征;相对而言,各类事件对期货市场影响的显著性、程度和方向既存在一定共性,也具有个体差异。     

健全期货市场的风险管理机制

健全期货市场的风险管理机制杨铁良一、期货市场风险的种类：１、交易过程中的风险。主要体现于价格风险和交易规模失控的风险。价格风险来源于各类现货市场上的产、供、需等矛盾的变化及政策性因素，有时造成期货市场的价格波动剧烈，瞬间可能导致投资者因判断错误而发生...     

金融期货市场风险管理研究

风险并不等于危险。金融期货市场充满了风险,但金融期货市场又可以是安全的。关键在于我们能否将风险控制住、管理好。风险性与安全性的统一,是现代规范化金融期货市场的特性,同时也是金融期货市场发挥其特有功能的基础和保障。     

论个人投资理财的风险控制和防范

个人投资理财是一项充满风险的经济活动，风险是指事物发生结果的多变性或者损失的不确定性，个人虽然面临潜在的损失，但是却不知道这些事件会在何时以何种方式发生，因此，个人需要进行风险管理以避免损失的发生，因为这种损失有时候会是毁灭性的。风险管理就是指发现个人面对的风险缺口，并对其进行管理以消除这些缺口产生的损失或使之最小化的一种合理方法，风险管理过程的目的就是中和或者使类似事件的影响最小化事先采取措施避开风险，如买房不买交通不便的期房，不购买那些信用不好的企业债券，不在股票市场和期货市场上投机等等。避免风险能使人们避开可能发生的损失或伤害，增加家庭的安全程度，因此，正确地认识理财风险，采取以下方法合理地控制和防范风险。     

期货交易纠纷法律问题研究

我国期货市场产生与发展,存在着与现实需求错位的问题,导致期货业中存在许多难以解决的法律纠纷,严重扰乱中国经济秩序和法制的进程。因而,依法解决期货纠纷,加强期货市场的法制化,有效规避非市场风险,从而完善期货市场的运行机制,才能促进我国金融行业蓬勃发展。     

述评大宗农产品商品电子交易平台

许多地方政府存在着"重生产,轻流通"的错误态度。农产品安全性无法得到保证流而且通过程中价格风险巨大,出现问题越来越严重。在农产品批发市场的基础上建立起统一的期货市场来解决农产品的标准化、品牌化和流通中价格风险题。我国的期货市场不够完善,品种缺乏,新的品种上市要通过审批程序非常困难,难以形成一个完善的定价体系。     

谈套期保值在中小企业防范存货风险中的应用

存货风险是当前有色中小企业不可忽视的一个问题,随着上海期货交易所对有色金属商品期货交易的开设,使得有色中小企业在国内期货市场套期保值成为了可能,但期货市场的投机气氛也使得企业的存货风险越来越大.本文以株洲冶炼集团股份公司为例,分析在当前市场环境下企业的存货风险,给出了有色中小企业合理运用商品套期保值防范存货风险的方法和措施.     

关于企业财务管理中套期保值的风险分析

目前我国期货市场还不成熟,投机交易量和套期保值交易量的严重失衡就是很好的例证,再加上期货市场的交易规则不是很完善,所以,一方面鼓励企业参与套期保值交易;另一方面也提醒套期保值者要清楚的知道套期保值中的各种风险。尤其那些参与者因为忽视套期保值的风险而遭损失的,更值得企业去分析研究,以便企业更好地利用期货市场。     

论期贷市场的经济功能

期货市场是市场经济发展到一定历史阶段的必然产物，是市场体系高级化和完善的重要标志。自1848年美国芝加哥谷物交易所（CBOT）诞生以来一百多年的时间里，期货市场和期货交易迅速传播到世界各地，形成了成熟的期货市场体系和运行机制，期货市场独特的作用和功能也逐渐为人们所认识和利用。期货市场不仅是商品交易发展的产物并反过来推动了商品交易的发展，更重要的是，期货市场提供了一个有效转移市场价格风险的场所，从而为市场经济的发展和深化开辟了极其广阔的前景。期货市场的产生、发展的历史，表明了期货市场是多种经济功能的统一…     

Modelling the iron ore price index: A new perspective from a hybrid data reconstructed EEMD-GORU model

As iron ore is the fundamental steel production resource, predicting its price is strategically important for risk management at related enterprises and projects. Based on a signal decomposition technology and an artificial neural network, this paper proposes a hybrid EEMD-GORU model and a novel data reconstruction method to explore the price risk and fluctuation correlations between China’s iron ore futures and spot markets, and to forecast the price index series of China’s and international iron ore spot markets from the futures market. The analysis found that the iron ore futures market in China better reflected the price fluctuations and risk factors in the imported and international iron ore spot markets. However, the forward price in China’s iron ore futures market was unable to adequately reflect the changes in the domestic iron ore market, and was therefore unable to fully disseminate domestic iron ore market information. The proposed model was found to provide better market risk perceptions and predictions through its combinations of the different volatility information in futures and spot markets. The results are valuable references for the early-warning and management of the related enterprise project risks.     

金融期货交易中的套期保值和基差风险分析

论述了金融期货的内涵、金融期货市场中的套期保值理论、基本操作方法和期货交易中存在的基差风险以及基差的变动对套期保值效果的影响。     

我国沪深300股指期货价格发现功能的实证分析

我国股指期货的推出对证券市场产生了巨大的影响,改变了股票市场缺乏规避系统性风险工具的现状,给金融市场带来新的生机与活力。本文采用协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解和脉冲响应函数实证分析了我国股票市场和期货市场的价格发现功能。研究发现股指期货在价格发现上占主导地位,表明我国股指期货的推出,增强了市场效率,使市场信息能够更快捷的传达。     

基于分形理论的原油期货高频交易风险测度研究

为了捕捉原油期货高频波动规律,采用WTI原油期货五分钟数据,基于分形理论分别构建GED分布和Skew-t分布的FIGARCH、FIAPARCH和HYGARCH模型,分析其波动特征并对风险进行测度。结果显示：三种模型均较好地刻画出WTI原油期货波动的长记忆特征;基于Skew-t分布的HYGARCH模型在度量原油期货高频交易风险时尤为精确;多头与空头头寸的VaR呈现非对称性;套期保值者或高频交易者可依据模型预测波动率,防止短期波动率过大导致保证金不足而被强制平仓。高频交易在提高市场流动性和拓宽市场深度方面具有一定的作用,因此,在风险可控的条件下,政府应该鼓励高频交易,促进我国衍生品市场繁荣发展,并增强衍生品市场稳定性和国际竞争力。     

Testing the stabilization hypothesis in the UK short-term interest rates: Evidence from a GARCH-X model

The objective of this paper is to examine the validity of one of the recurring arguments made against futures markets that they give rise to price instability. The paper concentrates on the impact of futures trading on the spot market volatility of short-term interest rates. The analytical framework employed is based on a new statistical approach aiming to reconcile the traditional models of short-term interest rates and the conditional volatility processes. More specifically, this class of models aims to capture the dynamics of short-term interest rate volatility by allowing volatility to depend on both scale effects and information shocks. Using a GARCH-X and asymmetric GARCH-X model four main conclusions emerge from the present study. First, the empirical results suggest that there is an indisputable change in the nature of volatility with evidence of mean reversion after the onset of futures trading. Second, the information flow into the market has improved as a result of futures trading. Third, a stabilization effect has been detected running from the futures market to the cash market by lowering volatility levels and decreasing the risk in the spot market. Finally, trying to capture the leverage effect the findings suggest that positive shocks have a greater impact on volatility than negative shocks.     

Tax asymmetry and futures hedging under liquidity constraints

This paper examines the optimal futures hedging decision of a firm facing uncertain income that is subject to asymmetric taxation with no loss‐offset provisions. All futures contracts are marked to market and require interim cash settlement of gains and losses. The firm is liquidity constrained in that it is forced to prematurely close its futures position on which the interim loss incurred exceeds a threshold level. The liquidity risk created by the interim funding requirement of a futures hedge is shown to proffer the firm perverse incentives, thereby making an under‐hedge optimal. This under‐hedging result holds irrespective of whether the firm is risk neutral or risk averse. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arbitrage,speculation and futures price fluctuations with boundedly rational and heterogeneous agents

This paper proposes a dynamic model for the futures market with three types of investors. The bounded rationality and heterogeneity of investors are taken into consideration. The equilibrium of the system and its stability conditions are derived with mathematical analysis. In the equilibrium, the futures price and the spot price converge to the equilibrium simultaneously. The equilibrium is determined by many factors, including the risk appetite and the rationality of investors, the trading costs, the arbitrage basis price and the fundamental price. When the stability conditions are violated, complex dynamics will emerge in the market. As shown by the simulations, the arbitrage is likely to destabilize the market. Moreover, when investors have the high degree of rationality, the equilibrium will become unstable and the futures market is inefficient. Statistical analysis indicates that the model can reproduce the stylized facts observed in the futures market, such as long memory, volatility clustering and fat tail of returns.

     

Corporate hedging and input price risk

Input price variability is an important source of risk for corporations that process raw commodities. Models of optimal input hedging are developed in this paper based on the maximization of managerial expected utility. The relationship between hedging strategies and output decisions is examined to assess the impact of the ability to set output prices on futures market participation. As a firm's ability to set output prices diminishes in the short run, input futures positions increase although the optimal hedge ratio may either increase or decrease. For a perfectly competitive firm, however, shifts in output price caused by input price changes provide a natural cash market hedge of input price risk and reduce the firm's optimal input futures position.     

期货市场程序化交易研究

随着我国金融市场的繁荣发展,期货市场也呈现出快速发展的趋势,但是由于期货市场分布比较散乱,交易的种类和程序存在着很大的差异,导致期货市场风险居高不下。     

Dynamic spillover and connectedness between oil futures and European bonds

This paper examines the spillovers and connectedness between crude oil futures and European bond markets (EBMs) having different maturities. We also analyze the hedging effectiveness of crude oil futures-bond portfolios in tranquil and turbulent periods. Using the spillovers index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014), we show evidence of time-varying spillovers between markets under investigations, which varies between 65% and 83%. Moreover, three-month, six-month, one-year, three-year and thirty-year bonds and crude oil futures are net receivers of risk from other markets, whereas the remaining bonds are net contributors of risk to the other markets. Crude oil futures receive more risk from long-term than short-term bonds. Moreover, the magnitude of risk transmission is low for the pre-crisis and economic recovery periods. Crude oil futures market contributes significantly to the risk of other markets during the oil crisis and Brexit period. A portfolio risk analysis shows that that most investments should be in oil rather than bonds (except the short-term bonds). The hedge ratio is sensitive to market conditions, where the cost of hedging increases during GFC and ESDC period. Finally, a crude oil futures-bond portfolio offers the best hedging effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic period.