绿色财务管理的短期均衡分析

当前,生态问题日趋严重,这种状况的形成主要是人类自身行为造成的,人们虽然已经越来越多地认识到其危害性,但是在经济利益的驱使下,人类的这种破坏行为并没有真正停止或减少。作为微观经济主体的企业,它的行为对生态问题的影响非常重要,所以必须改变企业的经济行为。作为经济主体其目标就是为了获取经济利益,只有保证其有一定经济利益的情况下,来改变其行为以利于解决生态问题才是可行的。鉴于此,本文从市场上各类企业的经济行为特点入手,来探讨解决问题的途径。     

金融非均衡状态下的通货膨胀成因与治理

当前我国经济运行中的金融非均衡现象日益突出。金融非均衡发展对货币政策最终目标——控制通货膨胀和金融稳定产生重大影响。本文分析了我国金融非均衡发展及其与通货膨胀相互关系的作用机理,并通过实证检验证明了金融非均衡发展是通货膨胀的格兰杰原因,最后提出了应对金融非均衡的政策策略:一是货币政策事前策略;二是加强金融监管和运用财政政策的策略。     

金融发展与经济增长的多重均衡关系因果模式的再思考

既有研究和特征事实表明,处于不同发展阶段的国家其经济增长与金融发展的互动关系存在多重均衡的可能,这种多重均衡关系又以"需求跟进"和"供给拉动"两种因果模式最为典型.然而,很难对不同国家或者存在性及其转化的亲件,并利用40个国家的面板数据验证了这一结论.文章发现,在不同国家和不同的经济发展阶段,的确存在着不同的均衡形态和因果关系模式;同时,对我国的实证分析表明,自上个世杨50年代以来,中国经济增长和金融发展的关系模式以1978年和1994年为分界岭呈现三个阶段性特征,二者之间的因果关系经历了由平稳到动荡、再由动荡到平稳的历史演变过程.     

分税制财政体制:激励与均衡效应的实证分析

一个科学的财政体制应该兼顾激励与公平。自1994年实行分税制财政体制以来，虽然财政收入增长迅速，但地区间财力差距反而拉大了。本文通过对分税制激励效应与均衡效应的实证分析，认为分税制是激励有余而均衡不足，并就此提出相关的政策建议。     

基于两国一般均衡模型的金融危机诱因研究

美国频繁对外作战导致其财政赤字不断恶化,从战争的视角探析世界金融危机频发的根源,有利于揭示出美元霸权的真正动机。在新开放宏观经济学研究范式的基础上,考虑到美元的中心地位,文章引入一国货币为国际储备货币,构建了具有微观基础的两国一般均衡模型,系统考察了储备货币发行国的财政冲击对世界实际利率和全球经济的影响。结果显示,美国巨额战争开支引致的财政恶化推高了世界利率,当利率上升超出稳定区间所要求的界限时,便会刺破泡沫,诱发危机。美国发动的阿富汗和伊拉克两场战争是本轮金融危机的重要诱因,而潜藏在战争背后的美元霸权才是本轮危机的实质根源。为应对美元霸权,中国应积极推进人民币国际化。     

The Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform and the Financial Strategy of Firms: A General Equilibrium Approach

This paper simulates the effects of the recent Finnish corporate tax reform with a computable general equilibrium model. It shows that the impact of the reform on the capital stock depends on the reactions of firms. If the financial strategy is changed to prefer dividend distribution and share issues, the cost of capital falls and the capital stock increases. On the other hand, if the criterion of financial policy is to minimise the welfare loss of current shareholders, the earlier financial behaviour should be continued. In that case,the induced higher cost of capital leads to a lower capital stock. The overall welfare evaluation of the tax reform is not sensitive to the regime shift: the reform should not have been implemented. This is because the increase in interest income taxation distorts saving decisions, expands the net foreign debt of the economy and weakens the terms of trade.     

基于供求理论的金融监管强度边界及制度均衡解析

金融监管需求函数与供给函数变化决定金融监管的供求关系,均衡的金融监管能够实现金融稳定和金融发展双重效果,但金融监管均衡属偶态而非均衡是常态.从我国金融监管发展的解读中可以发现,当前金融监管体制存在"制度性供给过剩"与"功能性供给不足"的双重失衡.短期内,应加强金融监管的国内协调缓解金融监管制度性供求非均衡矛盾;长期看,要改革金融监管制度,增加功能性金融监管的供给,满足金融发展对金融监管的制度需求,逐步实现制度供求的相对均衡.     

融资激励和融资约束对PPP模式下公共产品提供效率的影响——基于不完全契约理论的一般均衡分析

通过构建不完全契约理论下的一般均衡模型,对比分析了PPP模式中的融资约束和融资激励对公共产品提供效率和社会福利的影响,并探讨了融资约束条件下的效率损失。结果显示:私人融资的专业性可以提高公共产品合意程度,但是私人部门的融资约束会抵消其专业性带来的好处,导致社会福利损失。最后针对民营企业参与PPP项目对政府提出建议:必须打破融资约束和制度歧视,完善和规范金融市场,在公平、竞争的市场环境下引入专业机构参与公共产品提供的各个领域。     

金融危机下中国经济系统的内外部冲击影响——基于虚实两部门一般均衡模型的研究及模拟测算

国际金融危机下的石油价格波动、财政金融政策、结构和技术变化等内外部冲击对中国经济系统的影响越来越受到政府部门和中外学者的密切关注.为了能从数量上把握冲击的直接和间接效果,文章基于一个实物部门与金融部门相统合的金融可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,运用比较静态和比较动态的方法定量分析它们对中国经济的影响,并据模拟结果给出相关政策含义,从而为政策制定提供更充分的理论依据.     

Benefit-Transfer and Spatial Equilibrium

Compelling empirical evidence suggests that people move in response changes in pollution and that firms move in response to regulation. We investigate the problem of benefit estimation and transfer in the context of a simple model where firms and people can move in response to regulation and pollution. Including these margins of adjustment changes the problem of benefit-transfer. It requires the evaluation of policies that affect more than one region at a time. This suggests an important role for evaluation strategies based on easily observable indicators of local welfare like total population, real income net of real estate, or the use of elementary standardized models of spatial equilibrium.     

中国建置经济制度的历史传承与当代竞争

在人类经济史上 ,中国与西欧组织经济的方式有显著的区别 ,其特征与西欧庄园经济的分封方式不同 ,具有独特的“建郡置县”规范。通过数学模型 ,本文说明中国建置经济制度有过辉煌 ,其历史遗产在今天仍然具有生命力。在人类经济发展的今天 ,经济制度之间不是非此即彼的排斥关系 ,它们将相互影响且继续传承下去     

Equilibrium Selection and Consistency

In this paper we show that, for two important classes of strategic games, namely the class of mixed extensions of finite games and the class of games with compact and convex strategy spaces and continuous-concave payoff functions, equilibrium selection is incompatible with One Person Rationality, Consistency and (restricted) Non-Emptiness.     

金融自由化、金融脆弱性与金融监管

金融自由化是我国金融改革发展的主要特征。金融自由化导致金融系统趋向于脆弱,传统金融监管手段明显不足。文章在分析我国金融自由化趋势基础上,探讨金融自由化导致的金融脆弱性,提出我国金融监管改革与发展的路径选择。     

均衡、增长与改革

2001年匈牙利经济偏离了平衡增长的轨道.在过去的6年间,国家财政赤字增长到一个无法承受的水平,经常项目的赤字也非常高.实际工资的增长远快于劳动生产率增长.这些困境以及其他一些宏观经济问题促使匈牙利政府在2006年7月采取了调整计划.本文的第一部分分析当前宏观经济状况和调整措施的预期经济与社会效果.政府准备接受改革的政治代价,特别是必不可少的改革措施降低政府赢得政治选举的可能性,这显示了政府的承诺和决心.本文的第二部分讨论需要立即采取的措施及长期效果和深层制度改革之间的关系.     

Household Decisions and Equilibrium Efficiency

A general equilibrium model is introduced where a household may consist of several members, each with individual preferences and/or resources. When households obey collective rationality, certain intrahousehold externalities can be fully internalized by the respective households so that competitive exchange among households is efficient. As a rule, however, such intrahousehold externalities are not fully internalized by individual household members acting in their personal interest so that competitive exchange among such individuals is only efficient in exceptional cases.     

Evolutionary Drift and Equilibrium Selection

This paper develops an approach to equilibrium selection in game theory based on studying the learning process through which equilibrium is achieved. The differential equations derived from models of interactive learning typically have stationary states that are not isolated. Instead, Nash equilibria that specify different out-of-equilibrium behaviour appear in connected components of stationary states. The stability properties of these components can depend critically on the perturbations to which the system is subjected. We argue that it is then important to incorporate such drift into the model. A sufficient condition is provided for drift to create stationary states, with strong stability properties, near a component of equilibria. Applications to questions of forward and backward induction are developed.     

Nash Equilibrium and Welfare Optimality

If A is a set of social alternatives, a social choice rule (SCR) assigns a subset of A to each potential profile of individuals' preferences over A , where the subset is interpreted as the set of welfare optima. A game form (or mechanism) implements the social choice rule if, for any potential profile of preferences, (i) any welfare optimum can arise as a Nash equilibrium of the game form (implying, in particular, that a Nash equilibrium exists) and, (ii) all Nash equilibria are welfare optimal. The main result of this paper establishes that any SCR that satisfies two properties—monotonicity and no veto power—can be implemented by a game form if there are three or more individuals. The proof is constructive.     

金融全球化与中国金融安全问题

本文分析了金融全球化的实质影响及在当前影响我国金融安全的因素 ,并提出相关的战略措施 ,即寻求必要地合理保护、彻底改革国有商业银行、强化金融监管机制、提高金融宏观调控的有效性、保持宏观经济的稳定健康运行、加强国际金融协作等