完善农发行内控机制的思考

为确保农业政策性金融安全．控制和化解由业务经营的政策性和农业金融业务经营的脆弱性带来的风险，农业发展银行(以下简称农发行)逐步建立了一套加强内部管理，防止收购资金流失．防范和化解金融风险的内控制度本就农发行如何进一步建立和完善内控机制问题进行了调研．以期抛砖引玉     

农业发展银行商业性贷款业务可持续发展问题探讨——以南平为例

为促进农业政策性银行商业性贷款业务的良性运转和有效拓展,本文基于“管风险”的监管理念,对此项业务的潜在风险点和内部控制的有效性进行调查剖析,提出了完善内控建设、推动金融创新、构建风险补偿机制、健全风险管理等对策建议。     

政策性农业保险对农户贫困脆弱性的影响研究——以地方特色农产品保险为例

农业保险作为农业风险管理的重要手段,对提高农户风险应对能力、降低农户返贫风险发挥了重要作用.本文基于苹果主产区2255户苹果种植户的微观调查数据,运用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)和Ⅳ-Probit方法检验农户的政策性农业保险参与行为以及农业保险保障程度对其贫困脆弱性的影响.研究发现,参加农业保险以及提高农业保险保障程度均能够显著降低贫困脆弱性.进一步地,按照贫困脆弱性的主导因素不同,将贫困脆弱性分为风险型贫困脆弱性和资本型贫困脆弱性两种类型.农户参保及提高保障程度均能显著降低这两种类型的贫困脆弱性,并且对风险型贫困脆弱性的作用力度更强.政策性农业保险对农户贫困脆弱性的影响具有收入结构异质性,政策性农业保险显著降低了"纯种植收入农户"和"以种植收入为主农户"的贫困脆弱性,而对"以种植收入为辅农户"贫困脆弱性的减缓作用并不显著.     

新农村建设中政策性金融支持研究

社会主义新农村建设与农业政策性金融发展是一个互动共进的过程。一方面,新农村建设对农业政策性金融发展提出新的要求;另一方面,农业政策性金融发展对新农村建设提供强大的政策和金融支持。本文通过对我国政策性支农投入和新农村建设所取得的成果进行调查和分析,综合得出政策性金融所起的影响,进一步突出政策性金融在新农村建设中的重要作用,以及对我国政策性金融的未来发展提出一些基本建议。     

农村小型金融机构的脆弱性与创新发展

截至2011年6月底,我国共组建了615家农村小型金融机构,促进了农村金融市场的建立和农村金融的发展。但农村小型金融机构由于受到各种现实和潜在的风险因素影响,其金融脆弱性严重。解决农村小型金融机构的脆弱性必须依靠创新发展,即在金融制度与政策、金融服务产品、融资渠道、服务理念与服务方式、经营管理与激励约束机制、风险控制和内控制度等方面不断进行创新,才能保证农村小型金融机构健康稳定发展。     

创新特色企业文化实现政策经营目标

农业发展银行作为我国的农业政策性金融,在国家经济发展的新形势下和没有现存运作经验可供借鉴的前提下,要圆满完成国家赋予的农业政策性金融任务,必须以创新的精神在工作实践中走出一条路来,特别是要积极创新农业政策性金融的特色企业文化,从而以农业发展银行的特色企业文化建设为强大的精神动力支撑,来更好地履行农业发展银行的政策金融职能.     

农业政策性不良贷款证券化初探

中国农业发展银行作为支持我国粮棉油等农副产品收购的农业政策性银行，在信贷资金运用的过程中，沉积了大量的不良贷款。如何利用金融资产证券化这一金融创新工具盘活和化解农业政策性不良政策，这也是亟需研究和探索的课题。     

农业政策性金融与农村经济发展的实证分析

建设社会主义新农村的首要内容是发展现代农村经济,而现代农村经济的核心是农村金融.建立现代农村金融制度就要加快商业性金融、合作性金融、政策性金融的结合.本文从农业金融的需求和农业政策性金融的特点出发,实证分析了农业政策性金融在我国农村经济发展中的重要性,阐述了农业政策性金融对农村经济发展的特殊贡献,并就农业政策性金融在农村经济建设中的着力点提出了建议.     

浅谈调整金融结构与促进不良贷款下降的关系

银行不良贷款的出现,在某种程度上极大的加大了金融体系与银行的脆弱性。可以说无论是发展中国家、还是发达国家,如何有效解决不良贷款一直都是银行界不容回避的重要金融难题,中国银行自然也不例外。因为,本文笔者结合个人多年实践工作经验,从金融结构与不良贷款之间的关系入手,提出调整金融结构,促进不良贷款下降的设想,以期为降低不良贷款的研究做出有益参考。     

浅议我国农业政策性金融诚信体系建设

本文从二个层面讨论了我国农业政策性金融诚信体系建设问题。首先,立足于农业发展银行信贷业务已面临的一些问题讨论农业政策性金融诚信体系建设的必要性;其次,在前面分析的基础上对农业政策性金融诚信体系建设提出了一些对策和建议。本文认为,从监控、诚信教育、制度等方面着力,是我国农业政策性金融诚信体系建设的较好的选择。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…