Tax system reform in India: Achievements and challenges ahead

Indian tax system has come a long way from the narrow based, complicated and confiscatory to the one that is far more efficient. Over the years, the thrust and direction of reforms have been to improve revenue productivity while minimising distortions. The reform to convert the state level sales tax into VAT this year is a major initiative. The recent focus on tax administration promises rich dividends.Despite reforms since 1991, much remains to be done to make the tax system broad-based, productive and efficient. In corporate tax, excise, customs and sales taxes, revenue concentration on diesel and petrol has high efficiency costs. The personal income tax continues to be narrow based. Reform in the sales tax has only just begun and a lot remain to be done to evolve destination-based retail VAT. The reforms in tax administration promise increased revenues and, hopefully, that will provide the elbow room necessary for calibrating future reforms.     

Trade and Tax Reforms in a Cash‐in‐Advance Economy

We examine the effects of both tariff‐only and coordinated trade‐tax reforms on market access, government revenue, and welfare for a small monetary economy, under the assumption that a certain fraction of purchases of each good must be financed with cash held in advance. We show that if the cash requirement ratio in the exportable sector is greater than that in the importable, then, contrary to previous results, (i) a uniform radial reduction of tariffs has ambiguous effects on both welfare and market access, (ii) tariff and consumption tax reforms that leave consumer prices unchanged may be more efficient in improving market access and welfare than a reform that involves only tariffs, and (iii) export and production tax reforms that keep producer prices unchanged may be welfare deteriorating.     

Comparing marginal commodity tax reforms in Japan and Korea

We examine the impact of the marginal commodity tax reforms in Japan and Korea, using data from the official household surveys of the two countries. Based on the estimations of two demand systems (linear expenditure system (LES) and almost ideal demand system(AIDS)), we compare the marginal costs of taxing major commodity groups, examine distributive gains from tax reforms based on concentration curves, and assess the impact on poverty based on consumption dominance curves. In particular, we find that revenue-neutral marginal tax reforms incorporating a reduced tax on food and beverages are more likely to face an efficiency–equity trade-off in Korea than in Japan.     

A politically feasible social security reform with a two-tier structure

This paper investigates the welfare implications and political feasibility of social security reforms with a two-tier structure in Japan. We evaluate social security reforms from two points of view: (i) the ex-ante expected value of future generations, and (ii) whether current generations prefer reform to the status-quo system, which we call political feasibility. To evaluate the reforms, we use a large-scale overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic income risk and a two-tier structure. The first tier guarantees a basic pension and the second tier consists of the earnings-related part. Calibrating the parameters of the model to the Japanese economy, we compute the transition path and the two welfare criteria. We find that, given the two-tier structure in Japan, an increase in the basic pension and the abolition of the earnings-related part of the social security system improve the welfare of future generations, and ensures political feasibility when a consumption tax is the source of revenue.     

Volatility of Tax Payments and Dividend Payouts*

Dividends are a key mechanism for shareholders to discipline managers and mitigate agency conflicts. This study examines whether the volatility of tax payments is associated with dividend payouts. Consistent with the predictions, results suggest that firms with more volatile tax payments are less likely to pay dividends overall and their dividends are lower in magnitude when doing so. These effects are economically significant and incremental to a firm's operating risk. The link between volatile tax payments and the likelihood of dividend payouts is weaker for firms that distribute dividends to alleviate agency conflicts. Similarly, the link between volatile tax payments and the amount of dividend payouts is weaker for firms that hold more cash for tax reasons. Taken together, these findings add to our understanding of the economic consequences of volatile tax payments and the determinants of dividend payouts.     

Rebalancing in China: A taxation approach

The rebalancing of the Chinese economy is analyzed through a heterogeneous taxation of various types of firms. Based on a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper applies tax reforms to raise consumption, reduce some firms' overinvestment (overcapacities) and maintain a high level of welfare.To rebalance consumption and investment, taxation may allow reallocating a part of the labor force to firms that are not overinvesting (via business taxes and social security contributions). Moreover, the correction of distortions in production factor costs (capital and labor) is necessary during certain reforms applied in the model; that is, on the one hand, higher credit costs for firms that face soft budget constraints (via financial transactions taxes) and, on the other hand, a catch-up of foreign firms' wages by domestic firms (via social security contributions).These tax reforms bring welfare benefits to households and stabilize the welfare reaction to productivity shocks. Another interesting result is that in this framework, the rebalancing of the domestic demand in China does not require the readjustment of the external financial position. Indeed, the aggregate savings rate remains high and the supply of domestic assets is reduced.Finally, another model proposes a heterogeneous taxation of consumption across home and foreign goods to enhance consumption.     

我国税式支出政策优化的几个误区

近年来,我国税收优惠政策执行中所暴露出的问题再次引起了人们的重视,税式支出政策优化的探讨也成为财税改革的关键。我国财税改革的重心侧重于税收管理方面,而税收管理成效又或多或少地取决于税收优惠的有效管理。为避免陷入税式支出的误区之中,本文从税式支出政策优化的角度出发,切实对我国税式支出政策优化可能出现的模糊认识进行辨析和阐述,以便在我国实践过程中更好地发挥税式支出管理制度有效作用。     

Unanticipated vs. Anticipated Tax Reforms in a Two-Sector Open Economy

We use a two-sector neoclassical open economy model with traded and non-traded goods to investigate the effects of unanticipated and anticipated tax reforms. First, an unanticipated tax reform produces an expansion of GDP, labor, and investment, while an anticipated tax reform has opposite effects before the implementation of the labor tax cut. Quantitatively, if the traded sector is more capital intensive, GDP increases by 1.6 percentage points or declines by 2.7 percentage points after three years, depending on whether the tax cut is unanticipated or anticipated. Second, we find that GDP change masks a wide dispersion in sectoral output responses. As long as investment is both traded and non traded, a tax reform substantially raises the relative size of the non-traded sector after three years while traded output always drops. Third, a tax reform improves welfare in all scenarios, more so if the markup is endogenous, but less so if the shock is anticipated. Importantly, we find that welfare gains in a two-sector economy with capital accumulation and perfect access to external borrowing are between 39 % and 89 % higher than those in an economy without physical capital.     

股利所得税差别化征收的市场效应研究——基于金融市场税收运行机制视角

财政部、国家税务总局、证监会于2012年11月16日颁布了《关于实施上市公司股息红利差别化个人所得税政策有关问题的通知》,此次税收调整的目的是通过有针对性的税收优惠政策进行结构性减税,确保资金的合理配置和股票市场的正常运行。通过事件研究法,从金融市场税收运行视角分析发现,此次股利所得税调整对过去一年发放股利的公司具有正向影响并且该影响具有时效性,同时由于持有过去一年股利发放公司股票的投资者大多属于长线投资者,此次税改对该类投资者而言是一种实质上的减税,因此本次税改在短期内产生了显著的微观经济效应,达到了政策设计的初衷,为大盘蓝筹股的价值提升了市场地位,为公司的直接融资提供了市场基础。     

EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE TAX AND TRANSFER SCHEMES WITH ENDOGENOUS EARNINGS

This paper compares a linear income tax with a modified minimumincome guarantee that uses means-testing The schemes are evaluatedin terms of both their ability to reduce poverty and their influenceon social welfare (defined in terms of individuals' utilities)The comparisons involve a lexicographic approach whereby povertyreduction is regarded as the primary objective. Using a rangeof poverty measures and social welfare functions, simulationsshow that the linear income tax dominates the minimum incomeguarantee.     

The Triple Taxation of Corporate EquityProfits

In the absence of liquidations and share repurchases, the value of corporate equity is the net present value of all future dividends. This net present value is subject to three taxes: the corporate income tax, the dividend income tax, and the capital gains tax. Algorithms are developed for calculating the aggregate tax rate on corporate equity net present value. Although the lowest aggregate tax rate occurs when all earnings are paid as dividends, corporations increase shareholder value by reinvesting earnings whenever the after-tax returns of doing so exceed the discount rate. It is these high return investments that are subject to the highest aggregate tax rates, potentially exceeding 90 percent of pre-tax value under current law.The author would like to thank Stephen Shmanske for his insights and support in the preparation of this paper. The author is also grateful to Donald Wort and Gary McBride for their comments. All remaining errors and omissions are the responsibility of the author.     

Shareholder Income Taxes and the Relation between Earnings and Returns*

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether and how shareholder‐level taxes affect earnings response coefficients (ERCs). Our tests indicate that when the tax rate on dividends increases, ERCs decrease for firms with high levels of dividend yield and whose marginal investor is likely to be an individual. For firms with high levels of share repurchase yield and whose marginal investor is likely to be an individual, an increase in dividend tax rate has no discernible effect on ERCs. These results are consistent with the notion that the tax penalty on dividends, relative to capital gains, reduces the earnings‐return relation.     

Marginal and non-marginal commodity tax reforms with rank two and rank three demographic demand systems

This paper shows that the insensitivity of marginal commoditytax reforms to demand specification does not extend to the non-marginalcase. The size of the tax change has a sharp impact on commoditytax reforms. Unlike price effects, neither household compositionnor quadratic Engel curves alters significantly the directionof tax change. The first order approximation overestimates thewelfare cost of tax change, and the bias increases sharply withthe size of the change. The quality of the approximation alsodeteriorates with increasing inequality aversion making a Rawlsianless likely than an utilitarian to use the marginal framework.     

国外税收结构的收入分配效应研究新进展

目前国外关于税收结构的收入分配效应研究的新进展主要表现在三个方面。第一,税收总量不变情况下一种税收对另一种税收的替代往往存在公平和效率的权衡。一般来说,一种税收对另一种税收的替代在改善收入分配的同时往往不利于经济增长,或者加剧了收入分配但却往往有利于经济增长。第二,不同赶超经济税收结构的收入分配效应存在一些共同点也存在差异。普遍上,"形式上"累进的税收结构在实际过程中并没有改善收入分配,累进所得税因存在大量的逃税而效果有限。第三,税收结构的收入分配效应研究开始应用一些新的分析方法。Bewley模型和CGE模型已经成为了研究税收替代收入分配效应的主流方法,同时,不同的税收累进程度指标选取,收入分配的纵向与横向分解和政府税率结构决策可能受现有收入分配格局影响这三个方面都可能使得研究者重新考察现有分析框架和分析结论。     

International Capital Competition and Environmental Standards

This paper examines the welfare effects of capital taxation and environmental standards with and without a government spending constraint or international tax credits. This analysis delineates the intricate linkages of the two policy measures to both private income and government welfare. Loosening environmental control leads to more capital tax revenue for the government. The optimal capital tax rate may be of any sign, depending upon the ranking of the weights of government objectives and private utility. The same criterion also applies in determining how stringent the optimal environmental standards should be.     

Tax reforms and stock return volatility: The case of Japan

Although global financial turmoil in recent years has resulted in renewed interest in taxing financial markets, the existing evidence is inconclusive regarding the effect of stock transaction taxes (STT) on stock return volatility. In this respect, Japan provides an excellent opportunity to address the issue, as the country enacted major tax reforms during the long recession beginning in the early 1990s, not only abolishing STT in 1999, but also reducing the capital gains and dividend taxes in 2003. The present paper exploits these tax reform episodes and examines whether and how they affected stock return volatility. In so doing, it employs GARCH-type models using standard daily stock data, as well as HAR models based on realized volatility constructed from high-frequency, intraday data. The estimation results are consistent with the views that, in line with some earlier findings, the STT abolition in 1999 reduced volatility, and that the tax reforms in 2003 also reduced volatility through a cut in the dividend tax, but not in the capital gains tax.     

The poverty implications of alternative tax reforms: Results from a numerical application to Pakistan

This paper presents results from four simulations of the impact of potential tax reforms in Pakistan on poverty, shared prosperity, and inequality. The simulations are carried out in the context of a dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates endogenous tax evasion. The simulations link the CGE model to household survey data that is incorporated in a micro simulation model. The combined models suggest that equal yield increases in sales and corporate tax rates differ mildly in their impacts on consumption and poverty. Endogenously modeled tax evasion plays an important role in the results.     

我国房地产税制的现状、问题及改革建议

我国的房地产税制在促进房地产资源的合理配置和有效利用、公平社会财富的分配、组织财政收入等方面发挥了重要的作用。但也存在税制繁复、税负不公、重流通、轻保有、费重于税、配套制度不完善等诸多问题。有必要通过进一步的改革,简化税种,完善税制和相关的配套措施,促进房地产市场健康有序地发展。     

Seebohm Rowntree and the postwar poverty puzzle

In his third social survey of York carried out in 1950, Seebohm Rowntree reported a steep decline since 1936 of the percentage of households in poverty. He attributed the bulk of this decline to government welfare reforms enacted during and after the war. This article re‐examines the survivingrecords from the 1950 survey, using a revised poverty line and looking more closely at the measurement of income. It also re‐assesses the impact of welfare reforms on working‐class poverty, and finds that poverty in York was significantly higher, and the contribution of welfare reform substantially less, than was originally reported.     

利用公益性捐赠进行税收筹划对税务管理的影响

当今,公益型捐赠正与一些新的税收现象一起参与到税收筹划活动中,这对我国现行的税务管理系统提出了严峻的挑战。本文以此为例来说明利用公益性捐赠进行纳税筹划对税务管理产生的影响,并对现行税务管理方案提出有针对性改善建议。