英国技术前瞻研究工作全景

英国的技术前瞻研究工作发源于1994年的技术预测计划,现已成为英国政府的一项常规工作。英国技术前瞻研究组挂靠在商业、创新和技能部下属的政府科学办公室,有优秀的研究队伍和稳定的经费支持,其开展的项目涉及新兴科学和技术面临的挑战和机遇以及围绕科技能发挥作用的重大社会问题,例如,全球变化、应对肥胖和洪涝灾害等。技术前瞻研究项目的研究报告和提出的有关建议,不仅对英国政府制定政策提供了重要参考,也对国际社会关于一些重大问题的判断和应对措施产生了较大影响。通过对英国技术前瞻研究工作的由来、已经完成和正在开展的项目、核心研究团队、项目的遴选标准和特点等进行系统介绍,并以案例的形式阐述了其前瞻研究项目对政府部门的影响,旨在为我国开展相关工作提供参考借鉴。     

Firms navigating through innovation spaces: a conceptualization of how firms search and perceive technological,market and productive opportunities globally

The main contribution of this paper is a theory-based conceptual framework of innovation spaces, and how firms must navigate through them to innovate. The concept of innovation systems - at the regional, sectoral and national levels - have been highly influential. Previous literature developing the concept of innovation systems has stressed the importance of institutions, networks and knowledge bases at the regional, sectoral and national levels. This paper primarily draws upon an evolutionary and Schumpeterian economics perspective, in the following three senses. The conceptualization of 'innnovation spaces' focuses upon how and why firm search for innovations is influenced the opportunities within certain geographical contexts. This means that the firm create opportunities and can span different context, but they are influence by the context in term of the access, flow and co-evolution of ideas, resources, technology, people and knowledge, which help stimulate business innovation in terms of products, process and services. The paper concludes with an agenda for future research and especially the need to focus on globalization as a process of intensifying linkages across the globe.     

Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach

In parallel with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value systems (STEEPV), there is a need for a systemic approach in Foresight. Recognizing this need, the paper begins with the introduction of the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) is introduced briefly as a conceptual framework to understand and appreciate the complexity of systems and interdependencies and interrelationships between their elements. Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, which is about how systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme. A methodological approach is proposed with the use of network analysis to show an application of systemic thinking in Foresight through the visualisation of interrelationships and interdependencies between trends, issues and actors, and their interpretation to explain the evolution of systems. Network analysis is a powerful approach as it is able to analyse both the whole system of relations and parts of the system at the same time and hence it reveals the otherwise hidden structural properties of the systems. Our earlier work has attempted to incorporate network analysis in Foresight, which helped to reveal structural linkages of trends and identify emerging important trends in the future. Following from this work, in this paper we combine systemic Foresight, network analysis and scenario methods to propose an ‘Evolutionary Scenario Approach,’ which explains the ways in which the future may unfold based on the mapping of the gradual change and the dynamics of aspects or variables that characterise a series of circumstances in a period of time. Thus, not only are evolutionary scenarios capable of giving a snapshot of a particular future, but also explaining the emerging transformation pathways of events and situations from the present into the future as systemic narratives.     

The exploratory analysis of trade-offs in strategic planning: Lessons from Regional Infrastructure Foresight

The sustainable transformation of infrastructure sectors represents a challenge of prime importance worldwide. Due to long life times of infrastructures, strategic decision making has to explicitly consider uncertainties in context conditions, value considerations and available technological alternatives. However currently, strategic infrastructure planning is often carried out in a very narrow perspective. The present paper argues that foresight informed strategic planning, allows addressing trade-offs related to context uncertainties, value conflicts and sustainability deficits in a structured way. The paper introduces a specific procedural proposal, the Regional Infrastructure Foresight method (RIF) and illustrates its potential virtues through an application to urban water management planning in a Swiss region (Kiesental).     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

The organizational politics of information technology: Studies from the UK financial servies industry

The article critically appraises two recent contributions to studies of organizational change: processual analysis and the firm-in-sector perspective. These studies argue that managerial practice is intensely political. They also attempt to firmly locate that practice in its organizational and environmental or sectoral context. Drawing upon these studies the article examines the management of information technology (IT) in the UK life insurance sector. This examination uses a case study and sectoral research-in-progress. The article argues that organizational IT use and development is a politicla and social process characterized by tension and conflict between managers. This conclusion suggests that organizational studies of IT use need to develop more sophisticated theories of management and managerial practice. By so doing they may then be able to shed a more penetrating light on the relationships between managers, technologies and organizational change.     

Innovation and firm performance in Korea and China: a cross-context test of mainstream theories

We investigate the relationship between innovation and firm performance in two divergent emerging economy contexts: Korea and China. Mainstream innovation theories make disparate claims for how (1) intensity of innovation, (2) scope of innovation and (3) spillovers impact firm performance. Using a comparative institutionalist approach we hypothesise how these relationships apply to firms in Korea and China. Analysis of 897 firm–year data points over a 4-year period provides broad support for our hypotheses. Intensity of innovation (patent intensity) is a strong cross-contextual argument. Scope and spillover arguments appear to be more context-sensitive. Firms with innovation depth in specific technological fields enjoy better performance in Korea, while diversified innovation is more beneficial for firms in China. Spillovers have a stronger impact in Korea than China. The findings underline the importance of incorporating change in institutional context when developing policy and theory relating to firm innovation and performance in emerging economies.     

Adaptation processes in the context of climate change: a social and environmental psychology perspective

An informed multidisciplinary understanding of the ways in which people experience, appraise, adapt, and respond to global climate change is a prerequisite to effectively managing the transition to a sustainable economy. In this paper, we argue that climate science has to date failed to fully appreciate the contribution that social and environmental psychology can make to such an understanding. We draw on findings from two large national Australian surveys to demonstrate how this perspective can contribute to knowledge, understanding, and policy formulation. Central to this perspective are processes of psychological adaptation, that is, processes through which individuals orient towards, make sense of, and ultimately come to terms with, the threat and reality of climate change. Such adaptive processes are shown to mediate relationships between environmental experiences and behavior, and hence provide the foundation for environmentally-friendly lifestyles. Rather than assuming that external sanctions and incentives are sufficient to engender sustainable lifestyle changes, a social and environmental psychology approach recognises and explores the complexities of the transactions that occur between individuals’ internal and external environments, emphasizes the importance of intrinsic motivation and self-determination, and suggests the need for initiatives that promote behaviors that are both environmentally and psychologically significant.     

Reducing the democratic deficit in institutional foresight programmes: A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology

The democratic deficit (the ‘deficit’ hereafter) in present institutional Foresight (‘Foresight’ hereafter) lies in its participation regime. In this paper practical ways to reduce the deficit are proposed that ought to increase the responsiveness of Foresight programmes to society's values, concerns and expectations. The existence of the deficit is examined placing ever more emphasis on the need for the active participation by a balanced but wide spread of stakeholders who will help to shape the future of society through the practical scheme proposed. The notions of ‘situations’ and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) are combined into a metaphor to suggest how the deficit in Foresight might be reduced. The purpose is to ensure, as far as that is possible, that the process of participation is genuine, inclusive and effective: practical steps toward this are suggested. The subjective nature of the metaphors assists the interpretation of these suggestions. The notion of ‘situations’ and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) represents an attempt to provide a metaphorical foundation for inclusive Foresight. At their core, ‘situations’ and CSH consider that problem definitions, proposals for improvement, and evaluations of outcomes depend on prior judgements about the relevant system. The resulting framework that emerges from CSH is a set of boundary concepts usable as a checklist of critical boundary questions. The checklist may be grouped under four issues relating to sources of: (i) motivation, (ii) power, (iii) knowledge, and (iv) legitimization.The current paper discusses the application of the ‘situation’ cum CSH metaphor for the case of nano-science, nano-technology and nano-artifacts that are being widely adopted in areas such as materials, ICTs, and medicine. As a result of the growing interest for nano-field, nano-artifacts are now reaching the consumer markets within a large number of branches. On the other hand there is a growing scepticism about the nano-field regarding the environmental and health risks of nano-artifacts along with the ethical and legal issues arising as a result of the widespread use of these products. A number of processes have been designed and implemented concerning the legal, ethical and social impacts of nano-sciences, -technologies, and -artifacts. The paper suggests that inclusive Foresight, reinforced with the principles of CSH, can be of use in the nano-field providing wider stakeholder representation during the research and development processes. Such processes will contribute to the development of more socially and environmentally responsive nano-artifacts.     

Evaluation of national foresight activities: Assessing rationale, process and impact

The paper addresses the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations. The variety of rationales for foresight is explored, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies. A generational model of foresight is used to show the evolution of key evaluation issues. The generic motivations for evaluation of accountability, justification and learning are discussed in the context of foresight. Evaluation grounded in the concept of behavioural additionality and the systems failure rationale is shown to be more suited as a rationale for foresight as public policy.Assessing the effects of foresight requires an understanding that it is only one of several influences on public policy. To be effective it needs to be tuned into the strategic behaviour and cycles of policy and economic actors. Cases are presented of evaluation of foresight programmes in the United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary. It is concluded that there is no “one-size-fits-all” evaluation approach and that the method selected is conditioned by motivation, timing and the level of aggregation. Foresight cannot be fully evaluated independently from its context. Foresight is being strengthened by the emergence of rigorous and systematic knowledge to assist learning and improvement.     

‘Technology foresight towards 2020 in China’: the practice and its impacts

Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the ‘Technology Foresight towards 2020’ exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.     

'Technology foresight towards 2020 in China': the practice and its impacts

Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the 'Technology Foresight towards 2020' exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.     

21st Century workers: How will they be organized?

The study posits an organizational structure that shows how creative workers will lead in the 21st century. The growing importance of this group shifts the locus of analysis from a product/output physical perspective to a problem defining/solving creative one. The analysis next clearly identifies who is responsible for wealth creation, i.e., creative workers, and how to differentiate value among them, i.e., problem identifiers and solvers are most valuable. It next addresses how these workers are organized (finders, minders and grinders) looking at an emerging knowledge structure rather than the traditional 20th century hierarchical organizational structure. Finally, the firm as a unit of analysis is evaluated in the context of a free agent/creative workers structure and a problem-centric world.     

知识管理中的主动遗忘管理——员工情绪及主管行为的影响

研究了组织中员工的积极情绪和消极情绪在支持环境下相互作用,共同影响组织主动遗忘的过程。在综合前人研究成果的基础上提出以下假设:当主管提供了支持组织主动遗忘的环境以及组织中积极情绪较高时,组织中的消极情绪与组织主动遗忘有强正相关性;当组织提供支持性环境以及组织内积极、消极情绪都很高时,组织主动遗忘水平最高。并提出了提供启发性反馈、互动性公平、为下属所信赖3种支持主动遗忘的组织环境。     

技术预见活动所体现的科学发展观——以《中国未来20年技术预见研究》为例

简述了技术预见活动在全球的开展情况,以《中国未来20年技术预见研究》为例,介绍了技术预见活动的步骤和使用方法,分析了技术预见活动过程所体现的科学发展观。     

Historical reference: Hume and critical realism

The purpose of this paper is to make the case for discussingdevelopments in the history of thought as having the potentialto inform modern discussion. The case is made by means of consideringthe particular relevance of David Hume's thought for criticalrealism, emphasising his use of the concepts of belief and imaginationboth in establishing philosophical foundations and as beingrelevant for theory content. The notion that context is significantis used constructively by suggesting that important elementsin common between the contexts of Hume and of modern discussionsreinforce the potential value of considering Hume's ideas.     

Inter-capital relations and the network organisation: redefining the work and employment nexus

The blurring of organisational boundaries associated with ‘networks’of organisations suggests the need to reconsider how work andemployment are shaped by shifting inter-capital relations. Traditionaltheories of the internalised employment relationship understateits inter-relationship with both the form of inter-capitalistcompetition and the type of inter-capitalist production relations.Also, existing theories of inter-organisational contractingdo not adequately address how these are shaped by employmentrelations, both within and between organisations. An alternativeapproach provides a new perspective for considering forms ofcountervailing power to protect workers' interests in a capitalistsystem continuously shifting from integrated to non-integratedforms.     

Diversity and integration of science and technology policies

This paper discusses recent conceptual approaches to technical change, based on an emerging diversity of policies and increasing “institutional specialization” and clarification of the role of the private and public incentives to support S&T. This fact is reflected in the trend in developed economies towards increasing private investment in science and technology and we argue for the need to promote public policies in modern societies fostering competence building.This broad concept has motivated the work behind the present special issue, which was launched during the 6th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), hold in Monterey, Mexico, in the summer of 2003. Under the broad designation of “Connecting People, Ideas, and Resources across Communities” the Conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology, policy and management in a context much influenced by a dynamic of change and a necessary balance between the creation and diffusion of knowledge. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended and revised contributions to the Monterey conference that are largely grounded on empirical experiences of different regional and national contexts. The aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible views for emerging science and technology policies.     

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

Enabling sustainability transitions in Asia: The importance of vertical and horizontal linkages

The phrase “sustainable development” appears increasingly in national policies in Asian countries and there are many successful ‘sustainability experiments’ documented at local level throughout the region. We explore why, despite the efforts made at the national level and the good practices at local level, underlying trends are away from sustainability. Drawing on the multi-level perspective on system innovation, we argue that linkages between different levels in socio-technical systems are critical to explaining the emergence of sustainable development pathways. The absence of these linkages in many Asian contexts is an important factor obstructing sustainability transitions in Asia. We argue that while the importance of vertical linkages is recognized and theorized in the multi-level perspective, the horizontal and the temporal dimensions are under-explored. We develop a set of propositions for exploring linkages in socio-technical systems, supporting these with empirical examples from the region.