The Impact of Public Works Programme on Child Labour in Ethiopia

Given the conventional wisdom that poverty and associated income shocks are the fundamental causes of child labour, from a policy perspective, there is a perception that social safety net programmes can play a vital role in reducing child labour. While there is extensive evidence that shows the prevalence of child labour is low among beneficiaries of conditional cash transfer programmes, the impact of workfare programs on child labour has been rarely investigated in the economics literature. This paper addresses the issue by evaluating the impact of the public works component of the Productive Safety Net Programme implemented in Ethiopia in 2005. The programme aims to help poor households to build assets and develop resilience to shocks through employment in public projects. Results from child fixed effects estimations show that children in programme beneficiary households are significantly less likely than their counterparts in non‐beneficiary households to be involved in child labour. The findings suggest that, if well targeted, even safety net programmes that do not primarily target child outcomes can be useful in addressing child labour problems.     

Do households care about cash? Exploring the heterogeneous effects of India's demonetization

The recent demonetization exercise in India is a unique monetary experiment that made 86 percent of the total currency in circulation invalid. In a country where the currency in circulation constitutes 12 percent of GDP, the policy turned out to be a purely exogenous macroeconomic shock that affected all agents of the economy. This paper documents the impact of this macroeconomic shock on households. By construction, the policy helped households with bank accounts in disposing of the demonetized cash. We use a new household-level data set to tease out the effects of this policy on households with no bank accounts relative to households with bank accounts. Our results show that the impact of demonetization on household income and expenditure has been transient. We find that households with no bank accounts experienced a significant decrease in expenditure in November and December-2016. We find a slight decline in income in November-2016 but the effect dissipates thereafter. There is significant heterogeneity in the impact across households in different asset quartiles. We also show evidence of recovery of household finances whereby households were able to smooth out consumption during the post-demonetization period. However, this recovery phase is associated with an increase in household borrowing from different sources. In particular, informal borrowing (e.g. money lenders and shops) increased during this period.     

The Impact of Social Safety Net Programs on Household Savings in Colombia

This paper seeks to understand and quantify how social safety net programs impact household savings in developing countries, considering the case of Colombia using two complementary approaches. The first approach explores how the health regime affects savings in the country. The second evaluates the impact on savings of familias en acción, a major antipoverty conditional cash transfer program. The results suggest that the savings of informal households are higher than those of formal households, because, with little incentive to enter the formal job market, informal households need to cover slightly greater non‐covered risks. The results also show that familias en acción recipients save more than non‐recipients because recipients favorably adjust their expenditure patterns.     

Towards adequate and equitable energy provision for farmworker families

Consumption patterns of farmworker households are constrained by limited access and choice. Few households use electricity to any significant extent, most rely on fuelwood for power‐intensive energy applications, and the use of commercial hydrocarbon fuels is generally lower than in other rural communities. An evaluation of energy supply reveals opportunities for improvement, particularly for households on farms with a grid electricity supply and with the potential for fuelwood production. First, problems must be overcome, most of which result from the socio‐economic status of farmworkers and their dependence on their employers.     

HOW DO POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN MYANMAR COPE WITH SHOCKS? COPING STRATEGIES IN A FISHING AND FARMING VILLAGE IN RAKHINE STATE

This paper examines how poor rural households in Myanmar cope with shocks which incur unexpected expenditure, namely, the sickness or death of a household member, using data collected in a fishing and farming village in Myanmar in 2008. The paper analyzes the sequence of coping strategies and the background factors behind the sequence. Self‐insurance, the dissaving of assets or cash, is given priority over intra‐party strategies, such as loans or gifts. The reason for this lies in the persistent severe credit constraints faced by households, both in terms of access and cost (high level of interest rates), and the absence of strong social norms for mutual insurance in the community. Both factors appear to force these households to self‐insure themselves from the outset.     

E-commerce and Consumption Inequality in China

Consumption inequality may impede economic development and hinder the achievement of common prosperity. Using three waves of the China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2018, this paper investigated the impact of e-commerce on consumption inequality, as measured by the Kakwani index. The results indicate that e-commerce can reduce household consumption inequality. A mechanism analysis shows that e-commerce can narrow household income inequality, increase the purchasing power of low-income households, and promote the consumption of households with limited access to offline markets, thereby reducing the consumption gap. A heterogeneity analysis suggests that the positive role of e-commerce in reducing consumption inequality can be more significant among vulnerable households, such as households with elderly members and less-educated households. E-commerce can have varying impacts on consumption inequality across different subcategories of household expenditure, with the greatest impact seen in entertainment and education expenditure. These findings provide new evidence for the role of e-commerce in reducing consumption inequality in the digital economy, and the implications of this are discussed.     

Social Assistance Amidst the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa: A Policy Assessment

In an attempt to minimise the negative economic impacts of COVID-19 on vulnerable households the South African government allocated R50 billion in additional social assistance spending. The cash transfer package included a temporary increase in existing grants and introduced a new “Covid grant.” We assess the chosen package and compare it with an initial proposal to increase the Child Support Grant (CSG). Coverage, cost and welfare effects are calculated to measure the relative impacts in each case. We find that while a significant increase in the CSG delivers resources most progressively, the addition of the COVID-19 grant may potentially reach a much larger group of otherwise uncovered, vulnerable individuals. Critically, this extended coverage comes at a cost to the poorest households, via additional transfers to the upper income deciles. However, we identify several categories of vulnerable household groups which suggests that the workers most negatively affected by the pandemic are not necessarily those in the poorest households. The paper emphasises that social assistance to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 should not be viewed necessarily as a standard poverty reduction exercise, but rather as an attempt to mitigate COVID-19-related income shocks for the vulnerable who were most negatively affected by the pandemic.     

The influence of smallholder labour demand on cultivation of cash crops in northern Mozambique

Labour is one of the most important factors affecting smallholder cultivation of cash crops. Available household labour (AHL), crop labour requirements (CLR) and the ratio AHL:CLR were analysed from data collected from 287 households in the southern Niassa province of Mozambique. The study confirms that, other factors being held constant, crop labour requirements were positively related to the number of households rejecting or discontinuing certain cash crops owing to lack of available labour. Weeding was the most labour-intensive operation, followed by harvesting, preparing soil, transporting produce, clearing land and preparing seedlings. The following labour-dependent factors can be estimated: (i) the total area a household can cultivate, (ii) the area that can be allocated to food crops for consumption, (iii) the area that can be allocated to cash crops, (iv) the proportion of households that can cultivate cash crops, and (v) the proportion of households that are unlikely to produce sufficient food for household consumption.     

我国沿海渔民转产转业研究综述及展望

我国是一个渔业资源十分丰富的国家,渔业历史悠久。近年来由于我国与日本、韩国、越南签订的渔业协定相继生效,另外捕捞过度和环境污染等问题,使沿海渔业资源变得十分脆弱,对渔民的生产、生活造成影响。在此背景下渔民转产转业问题受到学者的广泛关注。本文对近年来诸多学者的研究进展进行了归纳和整理,并对下一步研究方向进行展望。     

Innovation in Africa: Why Institutions Matter

Given the role that innovation plays as an engine for economic development, we examined the enabling factor of institutions in Africa. Particularly, attention was given to determining the equivalent effects of institutional development on innovation. A sample of 40 African countries over the period 1996‐2012 was employed, and our baseline equation was estimated using the system generalised method of moments (SGMM) estimation technique. The empirical result reveals that government effectiveness and regulatory quality are two institutional measures that have the most equivalent impact on innovation. The extent of impact is an indication that institutions matter, especially when considering innovation in Africa. Therefore, to advance the rate of innovation in Africa, improving frameworks to drive regulations and enhance government effectiveness is a necessary instrument. Having these in place, Africa will be able to catch up with advanced economies.     

Asset Accumulation in Rural Households during the Post‐Showa Depression Reconstruction: A Panel Data Analysis*

This paper investigates asset accumulation in Japanese farm households during reconstruction following the Showa Depression. After the Showa Depression, farm households emphasized accumulation of cash and quasi‐money rather than productive assets. The accumulation of cash and quasi‐money is consistent with the buffer stock hypothesis. Evidence regarding accumulation of livestock, which is sometimes used as the buffer stock in modern developing countries, is not conclusive. The presence of well‐developed financial institutions in prewar Japan may have allowed farm households to smooth consumption via cash and quasi‐money.     

Executive Cash Compensation and Corporate Performance During Different Economic Cycles*

Current practice of management cash compensation is based on financial targets. The financial targets for a year may be above, equal to, or below the previous year's publicly available performance measures based in part on the prevailing economic conditions. Accordingly, during economic downturn, a flat relation between changes in management cash compensation and simple changes in corporate performance, like annual profits or return on equity, is predicted, while during economic growth, a positive relation is predicted between changes of management cash compensation and corporate performance measures. The evidence in this study is based on the period 1987‐95. Pooled, cross‐sectional results are consistent with the propositions of no relation between changes in management cash compensation and changes in measures of corporate performance during periods of economic downturn and significant positive relation during economic growth. Further sensitivity analysis of these results with respect to market‐based performance measures, size, and industry classifications confirm the main results.     

Contract Farming in Mozambique: Implications for Gender Inequalities Within and Across Rural Households

This paper analyses the implications of contract farming for gender inequalities in rural Mozambique. Contract farming is often considered one of the major tools of agribusiness development. It broadly includes those arrangements under which producers commit to providing cash crop to a buyer firm. This paper exploits a panel dataset (2002–2005) collected by the Mozambican Ministry of Agriculture among a nationally representative sample of rural households to explore contracts’ implications for gender equality both across and within households. We look at both the participation of female‐headed households in contracts and the impact of establishing a contract on a set of intra‐household women empowerment indicators. Concerning the first, our results confirm a (small though significant) effect of selection out of contracts of households where a woman is the household’s head. With regard to the second, we expect contrasting effects to be at work: on the one hand, increased income may relax budget constraints improving women’s living conditions, and on the other, we may expect a shift in favour of men of the control over the household’s assets. We find different results according to the indicator used; after controlling for selection bias, we find no effect on control over land but a negative effect on women’s access to extension services.     

Economic policy uncertainty and household consumption: Evidence from Chinese households

We find that households reduce their consumption in response to higher economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Compared with lower income households, high income group is more severely affected which can be explained by the portfolio choice of illiquid asset and liquid asset. In addition, the uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, well-educated and urban households. The impact of EPU on household consumption is also persistent. Holding more liquid asset and commercial insurance represent important channels in mitigating the negative effect of EPU on household consumption.     

The challenges facing empirical estimation of household food (in)security in South Africa

This paper sets out to describe current principle theoretical positions in food security research, describe and compare empirical South African food security studies with key international methodologies and pose research challenges for food security research in the country. Scant available food security studies for South Africa seem to indicate that food insecurity and hunger exist and are likely to increase due to increasing food price trends, greater reliance on cash food purchases and spiralling vulnerability as a result of HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality. Empirical research is urgently needed to determine the coping strategies of households under ‘normal’ conditions, identify vulnerable households, and monitor the impact of various shocks and stresses on household food security.     

Agricultural trade liberalization and poverty in China

The overall goal of this paper is to examine the impacts of trade liberalization on China's agriculture, in general, and poverty, in particular. The impacts on agriculture are analyzed by commodity and by region. Because different farmers (especially those in different income brackets) produce diverse sets of commodities, the main part of our paper analyzes the effects on households and their implications for the poverty through the simulation of household production and consumption changes in response to the trade-induced market prices changes on a disaggregated (by province), household-level basis. The results of our analysis lead to the conclusion that, unlike fears expressed in the popular press and by some scholars, the positive impacts of trade liberalization are actually greater than the negative ones. Although other effects on the rural economy from trade liberalization of other subsectors (such as textiles) may be equally large or even larger, this study's focus on the agricultural sector shows that there will be an impact from agricultural trade liberalization and that the net impact is positive for the average farm household in China. However, policymakers still need to be concerned. Not all households and not all commodities will be treated equally. Our findings show that poorer households, especially those in the provinces in the western parts of China, will be hurt. The main reason is that the farmers in Western China are currently producing commodities that are receiving positive rates of protection, rates of protection that will fall with additional trade liberalization. Hence, if policy makers want to minimize the impacts, there needs to be an effort to minimize the effect on these households either by direct assistance or by eliminating constraints that are keeping households from becoming more efficient by shifting their production more towards those commodities that will benefit from trade liberalization.     

Rural Women's Survivalist Livelihoods and State Interventions in Ga‐Ramogale Village,Limpopo Province

Abstract: Women constitute the majority of rural dwellers experiencing the worst effects of poverty while carrying the responsibility of securing a living for their households. Historically, rural women have practised a multiplicity of livelihoods that have always remained survivalist and less effective in generating cash income. However, well‐intended state interventions through Poverty Alleviation Programme (PAP) projects for women's empowerment have instead removed women from their practice of survivalist livelihoods without offering them the necessary enabling conditions to establish independent biographies for practice of ‘modern’ cash generating strategies. Based on a systematic sample of 177 households and interviews with women in Ga‐Ramogale, this article concludes that PAP projects have, rather than empowering women for sustainable participation in rural development, deepened their poverty and deprivation by enticing them away from the practice of livelihoods for which they had developed experience, skills and knowledge over years, and thereby effectively engendering increased reliance on dependency‐oriented livelihoods.     

Can Social Capital Reduce Poverty? A Study of Rural Households in Eastern Bhutan

This study examines the impact of social capital on the poverty of rural households in eastern Bhutan, with a particular focus on households' participation in community groups, which can be a proxy for the structural aspect of social capital. Using a two‐stage probit least squares simultaneous equation model, the present study reveals that social capital positively contributes to poverty reduction in Bhutan. This study also finds that non‐farm income is important for poverty reduction in rural areas. Our results, however, indicate that poor households in remote areas are discouraged from participating in community groups.     

基于农户感知的森林碳汇扶贫效应分析

伴随着集体林权制度改革的深化和森林碳汇项目时间的深入,项目实施区域农户在森林碳汇项目实施、持续发展中的主体作用日益突出。农户对实施森林碳汇项目开发的价值评判决定其行为态度,在实现应对气候变化与减贫双赢中起着关键性作用。文章借鉴感知价值理论构建了农户森林碳汇扶贫效应感知价值理论模型,基于典型民族地区抽样调查数据,运用结构方程模型实证检验了农户对森林碳汇项目开发扶贫效应感知价值与其支持项目后期运营意愿的关系。研究结果显示,（1）大规模造林再造林项目开发取得较为明显的扶贫效应,包括正面影响和负面影响。（2）农户对森林碳汇扶贫开发利大于弊的赞成率为72.56%,农户愿意支持森林碳汇项目后期运营的赞成率为69.82%,利大于弊的感知价值对农户支持项目后期运营的意愿具有显著正向作用。（3）感知利益和感知风险直接影响森林碳汇扶贫效应感知价值。其中,感知利益具有显著正向影响,影响程度依次为感知经济利益 > 感知社会利益 > 感知生态利益,农户对触及自身切身利益的森林碳汇扶贫开发经济利益感知最高,尤其是对森林碳汇项目开发对外来投资引入的最为敏感。感知风险具有显著负向影响,影响程度依次为感知情境风险 > 感知心理风险 > 感知经济风险,鉴于长期、大面积的林业生态建设衍生负面影响日趋扩大和农户对近期、客观风险感知的敏感性使得农户对情景风险的感知最为强烈。     

高铁开通的微观治理效应——基于现金持有的实证研究

随着中国高铁建设进入黄金期,高铁开通给企业带来的经济效益日益凸显。本文基于2005-2016年沪深两市上市公司的面板数据,以其办公所在地城市是否开通高铁作为外生冲击,采用双重差分(Differences-in-Differences)方法实证检验了高铁开通对企业现金持有水平的影响以其作用机制。研究发现,高铁通车以后,沿线上市公司的现金持有水平显著降低,进一步机制检验发现,当公司面临较为严重的融资约束以及处于较弱的外部治理环境时,高铁开通对现金持有水平的降低效应更显著,表明高铁开通对企业现金持有水平的影响主要通过缓解企业的融资约束与降低代理成本来实现。本文的研究丰富和拓展了高铁开通及现金持有等领域的相关文献,同时提供了交通基础设施建设影响公司微观行为的经验证据。