Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research that investigated the relation between U.S. trade flows and the value of the dollar either employed trade data between the United States and the rest of the world or between the United States and her major trading partners. In this paper we use monthly import and export data from 66 industries in the United States SITC Commodity Groupings over the January 1991-August 2002 period as well as cointegration analysis and show that in the long run real depreciation of the dollar stimulates export earnings of many U.S. industries, whereas it has no significant impact on most importing industries.     

The South Africa-U.S. Trade and the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetric Evidence from 25 Industries

Previous studies that assessed the effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of South Africa assumed that the effects are symmetric. In this paper we violate that assumption and assess the asymmetric effects of the real rand-dollar rate on the trade balance of 25 2-digit industries that trade between South Africa and the U.S. We find short-run asymmetric effects in a total of 19 industries but short-run cumulative or impact asymmetric effects only on five industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects on 14 industries. Further analysis revealed industries that will benefit from rand depreciation and those that will be hurt from rand appreciation.     

Exchange Rate Risk and Commodity Trade Between the U.S. and India

Floating exchange rates are said to introduce volatility into the foreign exchange market that could deter trade flows. Previous research employed aggregate import and export trade data and provided mixed results. In this paper we disaggregate the trade data between the U.S. and the emerging economy of India and use the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling to show that in 40 industries that trade between the two countries, exchange rate volatility has negative and positive effects in 40% of industries, in the short run. These short-run effects, however, do not last into the long run in many cases.

评美国贸易代表对人民币汇率调查申请的拒绝

人民币汇率问题已经成为当前中美贸易中的一个非常突出的问题。美国国内,尤其是美国国会内的一些人,经常拿这一问题来说事。近几年来,他们多次以中国操纵货币、中国汇率制度违反1974年美国贸易法301条款为由,向美国贸易代表提出调查申请,但均遭到拒绝。本文以WTO规则为依据,分析301条款的性质、地位和作用,结合中美贸易的实践,特别是近几年来有关301条款的人民币汇率特定争端案件的具体内容,分析了美国贸易代表驳回调查申请的表面理由和内在原因,并提出了应对301条款的一些观点和建议。     

Trade Openness and Vertical Integration: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

The present article aims to empirically examine a relationship between trade openness and the pattern of vertical integration using the six‐digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) of U.S. manufacturing data from 2002 to 2006. We use the index of vertical integration made out of inter‐plant transfers data by the U.S. Census Bureau, and we consider three proxies of trade openness—import penetration, export shares, and trade penetration. The empirical results substantiate 2000 theoretical proposition that trade openness undermines motives for vertical integration.     

人民币汇率对中美双边贸易的影响——基于多边汇率与双边汇率的研究

本文运用协整向量自回归模型(cointegrating VAR)、误差修正模型(VEC)和方差分解等计量方法,研究人民币对美元双边实际汇率、人民币多边汇率变化与中美双边进、出口及贸易差额的关系,并在模型中引入供给弹性和政策变量以提高检验的准确性。研究结果表明:人民币汇率是影响中美双边贸易的重要因素,人民币汇率升值可以改善中美双边贸易不平衡,其效应在短期内即可显现,但对双边进、出口的影响则取决于人民币对美元双边实际汇率变化与多边汇率变化的综合比较,两国经济增长均将扩大我国对美出口和美、中贸易逆差,而贸易政策对双边贸易的影响也不可忽视。     

汇率制度改革以来实际汇率升值对中美贸易影响的实证研究

人民币汇改是一次制度性的变革,在作实证分析时,不能用跨不同制度的数据来解释汇改后的汇率波动对贸易的影响。因此,本文采用人民币汇率制度改革以来的月度数据和Johansen协整检验等计量分析方法,分别对人民币实际汇率如何影响中国对美出口和进口作了实证分析。通过分析发现,人民币实际汇率升值对改善中美贸易收支平衡状况存在显著影响。     

我国出口汇率传递的非对称性:来自中日贸易的证据

文章扩展了Yang（2007）的厂商定价模型,对汇率传递非对称性、特点和成立条件进行理论分析,发现对称传递需要满足严格的条件,而现实中更常见的是非对称汇率传递。在一定条件下,商品需求弹性越大,越可能呈现出口国货币贬值传递率高而升值传递率低的特点。利用2000年1月至2011年12月我国出口日本的966种商品价格数据,发现汇率波动向价格传递具有非对称性：（1）人民币升值时,日元价格上涨较少;而贬值时,价格下降较多。我国出口商品的需求弹性较大,在日本市场上面对的是一个强竞争结构。（2）若月度升值超过一定幅度（测算约为2.43%）,传递率又会有所上升,说明尽管日元价格易跌难涨,但在升值导致成本上涨较多、明显挤压利润时,厂商不得不适当提高日元售价。采用2000年至2018年9月日本从中国进口单位价值指数进行稳健性检验,得出类似结论。现阶段稳定的人民币名义汇率对我国出口企业是更为有利的。     

如何从钉住汇率制度中退出

上世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后,主要西方国家实行了浮动汇率制度。80―90年代,多数发展中国家和转轨国家先后完成了由固定汇率制度向浮动汇率制度的转变。本文将通过对四个案例的分析,说明一个国家或地区从钉住汇率制度中成功退出的可能途径或走向失败的教训。波兰退出:渐进的经典与波兰经济改革采取的“休克疗法”不同,波兰汇率改革选择了“渐进模式”。兹罗提经历了“单一钉住美元”、“钉住一篮子货币”、“爬行钉住”、“爬行区间”和“自由浮动”等几乎所有类型的制度安排,成为渐进改革的一个经典案例。波兰的汇率改革,坚持谨慎…     

Trade Flows,Exchange Rate Uncertainty,and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries

This article investigates the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies, representing 82% of all developing country manufactures exports, and explores the sources of heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects by controlling for the direction of trade (south‐north or south‐south), and the level of financial development of the exporting country. The empirical results show that for more than half of the countries, the uncertainty effect is unidirectional, either south‐south or south‐north, and the median impact is negative. In addition, while we find that financial development augments trade, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. Last but not least, trade among developing economies improves export growth under exchange rate shocks.     

The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters.     

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Provincial Data

Using data for the period 2000–2011, we construct province‐level real effective exchange rate (REER) indices for China and test the effect of REER depreciation on regional economic growth in a generalized method of moments regression framework. Our results show that REER depreciation, in general, promotes regional economic growth, through increasing net exports and lowering FDI costs. After dividing the full sample into coastal and inland subsamples, we find that REER depreciation influences economic growth in inland areas but not in coastal areas. This is due to the fact that the inland areas have more surplus labor or other resources to expand their production capacity when REER depreciation leads to increased world demand. Furthermore, compared to inland areas, processing‐and‐assembly trade comprises a larger share of trade in the coastal areas, where traders import more raw materials and intermediate goods to process and assemble goods. When the exchange rate depreciates, the costs of imported materials and immediate goods increase. In this case, the benefits from REER depreciation in coastal areas are offset to some extent and are thus lower than in inland areas.     

中美贸易对美国就业影响研究——基于美国制造业面板数据的分析

本文通过建立国际贸易对就业影响的理论模型,利用美国制造业面板数据分析中美贸易对美国就业的影响问题。实证结论表明,美国进口中国制成品对美国就业没有显著影响,也不是美国失业的Granger原因;美国制成品出口对增加美国就业虽有显著影响,但作用不大;影响美国国内就业的主要因素是实际工资、企业发展状况等实际因素。这些结论充分说明,美国的失业问题不是由美国进口中国制成品引起的,美国减少中国制成品进口也解决不了美国的失业问题。     

美国制造业就业的影响因素研究——基于人民币实际汇率与美国国内因素的比较分析

本文通过构建劳动力需求和供给模型,考察了影响美国制造业就业的主要因素,并基于最优消费决策条件的经验数据测量模型(K-R),重点研究了人民币实际汇率变动对美国制造业就业的影响;然后通过实证研究全面分析了1981～2011年度人民币实际汇率和美国国内因素对美国制造业就业的影响。研究结果表明:无论短期还是长期,美国制造业技术进步率上升和人均资本存量增加均能够显著拉动制造业就业增长;从长期来看,人民币实际汇率贬值和美国实际利率下降能够在一定程度上促进制造业就业增加;但从短期来看,美国制造业实际工资率上升对制造业就业的正向影响更加显著。     

Trade,Geography, and Industry Growth in U.S. Manufacturing

Much of the recent empirical literature examining the New Economic Geography has focused on how access to markets impacts wages. In this article, we consider an alternative aspect of the theory by examining how access to markets affects industry growth. We develop a model relating the growth of two key measures of market size—market access and supplier access—to growth in industry employment and the real value of industry shipments. We estimate the model using data on U.S. manufacturing industries between 1984 and 1996. We find strong evidence to suggest that access to markets positively affects industry growth.     

美国医改怎么改

在中国百姓看来，奥巴马政府“让人人都能享有医疗保险”的医改方案，值得拍手叫好。但在美国，却招致半数以上的民意反对，原因何在     

Central Bank Intervention and Heterogeneous Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence from the Daily DEM/US-Dollar Exchange Rate

In this paper we propose a generalisation of the noise trader transmission mechanism to examine the impact of central bank intervention on exchange rates. Within a heterogeneous expectation exchange rate model intervention operations are supposed to provide support for chartist or fundamentalist forecasts, which forces portfolio managers to adjust their foreign currency positions. The empirical examination of the hypothesis is done by applying a Markov regime-switching approach to daily DEM/US-dollar exchange rates and intervention data of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1992. It is shown that chartists profits rose whenever these central banks intervened on the foreign exchange market. This is not true for those who follow a fundamentalist approach.JEL Classification Numbers: F31, C32, E58, G15     

日美贸易摩擦:由宏观经济摩擦转向制度摩擦

战后日美贸易摩擦是在经济全球化的背景下和产业结构的转换中产生和发展的.日美贸易摩擦的发展不仅与日本产业结构的变化同步,而且与全球化的进展同步.60年代,产业结构由轻工业转向重化工业化,贸易摩擦也由纺织品转向钢铁、彩电;70-80年代,产业结构由重化工业化转向技术集约化,日美贸易摩擦开始转向汽车、半导体;90年代,日本产业结构由技术集约化开始转向信息化,日美贸易摩擦开始转向金融、通信、流通等领域.     

Exchange Rate Returns and External Adjustment: Evidence from Switzerland

This paper studies the predictive power of external imbalances for exchange rate returns. We focus on Switzerland, a very open economy where exchange rate movements have a strong effect on external imbalances through valuation effects and trade flows. Using a simple modification of the Gourinchas and Rey (J Polit Econ 115(4):665–703, 2007) approach to make their approximation applicable to Switzerland, we find that measures of deviations from trends in Swiss net foreign assets and net exports help to forecast Swiss franc nominal effective exchange rate movements, both in and out of sample.