A nested test of the Barten model of equivalence scales

The Barten model, as the principal equivalence scale model, has considerable policy importance. It has, however, never been subjected to a statistically satisfactory test. This note proposes a simple modelling artefact that allows the Barten model to be nested and tested in the conventional way. Illustrative estimation is, then, carried out on U.K. budget data.     

On the income dependence of equivalence scales

Household consumption exhibits economies of scale as the number of household members increases. We collect survey data from two countries, Germany and France, in order to obtain direct subjective estimates of household consumption economies of scale, and, in particular, to examine an additional dimension: whether household consumption economies of scale change as living standards go up. Our data from both countries indicate strongly that household economies of scale increase as the living standard goes up. We discuss the robustness of our survey method and compare our results to these of alternative estimation methods in the literature.     

Equity-regarding poverty measures: differences in needs and the role of equivalence scales

Abstract .  The paper investigates the definition of equity-regarding poverty measures when there are different household types in the population. It demonstrates the implications of a between-type regressive transfer principle for poverty measures, for the choice of poverty lines, and for the measurement of living standard. The role of equivalence scales, which are popular in empirical work on poverty measurement, is clarified.     

Participants' response to the Delphi method: An attitudinal perspective

The processes involved in an individual's response to the Delphi method are conditioned by a number of psychological affects. This paper examines aspects of two of these processes: the basis for changing opinions, and the factors related to continued participation in subsequent Delphi rounds. The attitudinal perspective is shown to be promising in explaining an individual panelist's response in the Delphi method. Cognitive dissonance apparently has a significant role to play in bolstering the assimilation of nonconforming respondents. This is, however, complicated by the respondents' perception of the credibility of the feedback received. Careful choice of panels may reduce dropouts, presumably by selecting those with a high degree of ego involvement. Nonetheless, elements of cognitive dissonance apparently lead certain panelists to abandon the Delphi process. It is evident that numerous parallels exist between psychological explanations of attitude change and the behavior of Delphi panelists.     

Selden's model of inflation: A reexamination

Selden has presented a model which appears to offer strong support for a monetary explanation of inflation. Using bivariate regression to relate percentage changes in quarterly prices to percentage changes in M1 in previous quarters, he finds values of R² from 0.70 to 0.88 and t-statistics of 12 or more when using data for the U.S., Canada, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Unfortunately, the unreported DW statistics for the regressions range from 0.30 to 0.46. Reestimated with a correction for autocorrelation, the t-statistics collapse, values of rho are almost unity, and there is little evidence to support a monetary explanation of inflation.     

On the equivalence of weak dominance and sequential best response

In this paper, we identify the conditions under which a strategy is weakly dominated if and only if it is not sequential best response. In addition, we explore the implication for extensive form rationalizability.     

动态可采储量计算方法在超稠油油藏开发早期的应用

通过应用产量增长率模型、油汽比曲线和经验公式3种动态可采储量计算方法,对超稠油开发早期区块(杜84块)兴隆台油层动态可采储量进行计算,得到了与油藏标定可采储量相近的结果,从而找到了适合超稠油油藏开发早期进行动态可采储量计算的方法,对其它超稠油油藏开发早期的动态可采储量计算具有一定参考价值.     

A progress report on Kelly's majority conjectures

LetC(m, n) be the proportion of n-voter profiles on m alternatives that have a majority winner. Jerry Kelly conjectured that C(m, n) > C(m + 1, n) for m ? 3 and n = 3 and n ? 5, and C(m, n) > C(m, n + 2) for m ? 3 and n ? 3. We prove these for special cases.     

On the equivalence of preferences

Preference relations that agree on the ranking of elements of the space on which they are defined necessarily agree on all the conditional rankings of pairs of components of these elements. In this note we show the converse statement is also true.     

A test for the policy ineffectiveness theory for Austria

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird die Politikineffizienzthese für die Geldpolitik in Österreich getestet. Dabei wird der Testmethodologie von Barro gefolgt. Die bisher vorliegende Studie von Driscoll et al. hat die Hypothese abgelehnt, da sich die Annahme der rationalen Erwartungen über den Geldangebotsprozeß als statistisch nicht erfüllt herausgestellt hatte. Dies überrascht insofern, als gerade der Geldangebotsprozeß eher dürftig diskutiert wurde. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird daher der Geldangebotsprozeß eingehend analysiert und aufgezeigt, wie sensitiv die Ergebnisse hinsichtlich geringfügiger Veränderungen der Geldmengengleichungen sind.Im Gegensatz zu Driscoll et al. kommt die vorliegende Arbeit zu dem Schluß, daß die Politikineffizienzthese nicht verworfen werden kann. Auf Grund der observational equivalence sind sowohl keynesianische Modelle als auch die Politikineffizienzthese mit diesen Ergebnissen vereinbar. Das Resultat reicht daher nicht aus, keynesianische Politik als unsinnig zurückzuweisen.Als interessanter Aspekt der empirischen Analyse zeigt sich, daß die strikte Lucas-Angebotsfunktion die Berücksichtigung laufender Information ausschließt, für Österreich keine Geltung hat. Die Residuen der Geldmengengleichung besitzen nämlich nur dann Erklärungswert, wenn die laufende Zinssatzdifferenz zwischen Österreich und der BRD in die Geldmengengleichung eingeht.Weiters ergibt sich auf Grund eines CUSUM-Tests, daß es keineswegs unproblematisch ist, zur Bestimmung der Parameterwerte der Geldmengengleichung die gesamte Stützperiode heranzuziehen, anstatt jeweils nur die Datenmatrix bis zum Zeitpunktt-1 heranzuziehen.     

A simple proof of Nataf's theorem on consistent aggregation

In this paper we present a simple and short proof of Nataf's theorem on consistent aggregation for the case that all functions involved have non-zero first derivatives.     

A new test for normality

Burr (1942) type XII distribution $\text{?(u)=kc u}{}^{\mathrm{c?1}}\text{(1+u}{}^{\mathrm{c}}\text{)}{}^{\mathrm{-(k+1)}}\text{u?0, k > 0, c > 0}$ is considered. Particular values of k and c give β₁ ? 0 and β₂ ? 3. Using this fact tests for normality of observations and regression disturbances are constructed.u.1. Introduction     

A method for estimating the effect of a subsidy on the receiver's resource constraint: with an application to U.S. local governments 1964–1971

Most studies of the effects of subsidies or recipient behavior accept the nominal legal provisions of a grant as defining the actual effective resource constraint faced by the receiver. This paper argues that to the contrary the true effect of a subsidy on the receiver's resource constraint can not be read from nominal administrative requirements. Therefore, an indirect statistical method is required to discover the shape of the post subsidy budget line. This paper develops such a method, which is then applied to U.S. local government expenditure decisions on education for the period 1964–71.     

A small-sample correction for the likelihood ratio test

Anderson's (1958, p. 208) asymptotic expansion of the likelihood ratio criterion for testing linear hypotheses about regression coefficients in the multivariate linear model is used to derive a small-sample correction factor that may be applied in a more general context.     

A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data

Abstract.  The paper tests Hotelling's prediction that scarcity rent for a non‐renewable resource will rise at the rate of discount in a market equilibrium. We perform the test using data for old‐growth timber, a resource that is effectively non‐renewable. In contrast to previous studies, for this resource a measure of scarcity rent is directly observable in the form of stumpage price bids in timber auctions. We construct a model that allows for replanting and captures the institutional framework of the western U.S. timber market. The modified Hotelling rule that we derive is not rejected in several of our specifications.