THE ESTIMATION OF PENSIONER EQUIVALENCE SCALES USING SUBJECTIVE DATA

This paper uses panel data on pensioners' subjective evaluations of their financial positions to construct equivalence scales for pensioners. A pensioner couple is estimated to require an income 44 percent higher than a comparable single pensioner to reach the same standard of living. This is significantly less than the equivalence scale value implied by the ratio of state pension rates, the McClements equivalence scale value, and the scale value derived from Engel curve estimation for food expenditure using the same data source. The estimated equivalence scale value is robust to variations in the definition of the pensioner sample, the measurement of income, and the econometric model used.     

THE ESTIMATION OF PENSIONER EQUIVALENCE SCALES USING SUBJECTIVE DATA

This paper uses panel data on pensioners' subjective evaluations of their financial positions to construct equivalence scales for pensioners. A pensioner couple is estimated to require an income 44 percent higher than a comparable single pensioner to reach the same standard of living. This is significantly less than the equivalence scale value implied by the ratio of state pension rates, the McClements equivalence scale value, and the scale value derived from Engel curve estimation for food expenditure using the same data source. The estimated equivalence scale value is robust to variations in the definition of the pensioner sample, the measurement of income, and the econometric model used.     

海洋新区政策对沿海地区经济效率的影响研究——以舟山海洋新区为例

经济发展的质量可以通过经济效率进行评价。为探讨舟山群岛新区的设立对该地区经济发展质量的影响,将数据包络分析与反事实分析相结合,首先通过收集1995-2015年江浙皖 21个地级城市的投入产出经济数据,利用数据包络分析方法测算这些城市在上述 21年间的经济效率;然后根据测算结果,以 “反事实”分析方法量化研究舟山群岛新区的设立对舟山经济效率的影响。研究表明,舟山群岛新区设立在一定时期内提高了该地区的经济效率,但作用时间有限,今后还需要对舟山现有经济增长方式及时加以改进。     

Application of Multivariate Statistical Analysis for Valuation of Copyrights in the Hotel Industry

The aim of this work was to identify comparable markets for the hotel industry in Europe and to compare the fees incurred by hotels for using copyrighted and indirect rights for copyright management organizations. The study covers 21 European countries. Using multivariate statistical analysis methods, these countries were grouped, taking into account gross domestic product per capita and the average daily rate for a hotel room. A detailed comparison of the fees that hotels pay for using music and audiovisual works was conducted for the Central and Eastern European countries characterized by the lowest income and hotel prices. The analysis identified wide variation in the methods for calculating fees, fee amounts, and the relationship to hotel revenues among the various countries.

     

除湿消疹饮治疗湿热证急性湿疹36例疗效观察

目的探讨除湿消疹饮治疗急性湿疹的疗效。方法 66例皮肤科门诊患者,采取随机数字表法分为治疗组和对照组,对照组采用常规西药治疗,治疗组采用经验方除湿消疹饮治疗,比较两组疗效。结果从治疗后EASI评分分析,两组比较治疗组优于对照组。结论采用我科经验方除湿消疹饮的患者急性湿疹的症状明显好转或痊愈,效果较好。     

苏州外资与民营制造业同构与协调的关系分析

首先利用结构重合度指数测算了苏州外资与民营制造业的同构度。其次利用结构熵模型测算了该地区外资与民营制造业的结构协调度。最后基于时间序列分析中的单位根检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析技术,对苏州外资与民营制造业同构与协调之间的动态关系进了分析。结果表明,近年来该地区外资与民营制造业是在趋同中逐步呈现出了协调发展的态势。     

土地利用总体规划实施的多维评价指标体系的构建及其应用

通过选取土地利用总体规划实施的多维评价指标,采用文献资料法、层次分析法(AHP)构建一套量化、操作性较强的土地利用总体规划实施的多维评价指标体系和评价方法,运用此多维评价指标体系对康乐县上一轮土地利用总体规划的实施进行了评价。研究表明:康乐县土地利用总体规划实施评价的综合评分值为89.43,土地利用总体规划在实施中社会、经济、生态各方面协调良好,效果明显;土地利用总体规划实施的多维评价指标体系的构建是合理的,评价方法是科学、严密的,为其他市、县及乡镇的土地利用总体规划实施的评价提供了重要的参考。     

探析现代产品设计中的通感现象

以通感在审美欣赏、艺术创作中的重要性为启示,分析了通感的类型、特点、感官相通的模式等,并结合日常生活、诗词赏析中的各种通感现象,论述了通感对艺术创作的启发与启迪,以及应用通感带给作品的飞跃与提升。在此基础上,提出了通感在产品设计中的重要性,并结合具体案例论证通感的巧妙应用给产品带来的感性诉求、人文情怀以及体验的乐趣。     

The use of bootstrapped Malmquist indices to reassess productivity change findings: an application to a sample of Polish farms

This article assesses the extent to which sampling variation affects findings about Malmquist productivity change derived using data envelopment analysis (DEA), in the first stage by calculating productivity indices and in the second stage by investigating the farm-specific change in productivity. Confidence intervals for Malmquist indices are constructed using Simar and Wilson's (1999) bootstrapping procedure. The main contribution of this article is to account in the second stage for the information in the second stage provided by the first-stage bootstrap. The DEA SEs of the Malmquist indices given by bootstrapping are employed in an innovative heteroscedastic panel regression, using a maximum likelihood procedure. The application is to a sample of 250 Polish farms over the period 1996 to 2000. The confidence intervals’ results suggest that the second half of 1990s for Polish farms was characterized not so much by productivity regress but rather by stagnation. As for the determinants of farm productivity change, we find that the integration of the DEA SEs in the second-stage regression is significant in explaining a proportion of the variance in the error term. Although our heteroscedastic regression results differ with those from the standard OLS, in terms of significance and sign, they are consistent with theory and previous research.     

中国区域环境效率及其影响因素

本文基于DEA方法运用2000—2008年省级面板数据计算了我国30个省市的环境效率,同时使用Tobit模型分析了该环境效率的影响因素。研究表明:(1)2000—2008年,中国30个省区的环境效率基本保持在0.7～1之间波动,各省区平均环境效率刚开始时呈下降趋势,但在2004年或2005年出现明显拐点。(2)我国环境效率地区差异明显,东部发达地区在效率水平上优于中西部地区,中西部地区环境效率的敏感性高。另外,2005年以来西部与东部的效率差距趋于缩小,而中部的情况则不乐观。(3)加大对从业人员、能源、用水等投入要素的利用程度,能有效提高环境效率。(4)经济水平、外贸依存度、人口密度都会对我国环境效率产生显著的正面影响,其中人均GDP和进出口贸易额对环境效率影响较大,而工业污染治理投资占GDP比重对环境效率影响不显著。     

Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes

Background Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer in the world and is associated with significant mortality. Nivolumab demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were previously treated. The cost-effectiveness of nivolumab has not been assessed in Canada. A contentious component of projecting long-term cost and outcomes in cancer relates to the modeling approach adopted, with the two most common approaches being partitioned survival (PS) and Markov models. The objectives of this analysis were to estimate the cost-utility of nivolumab and to compare the results using these alternative modeling approaches.

Methods Both PS and Markov models were developed using docetaxel and erlotinib as comparators. A three-health state model was used consisting of progression-free, progressed disease, and death. Disease progression and time to progression were estimated by identifying best-fitting survival curves from the clinical trial data for PFS and OS. Expected costs and health outcomes were calculated by combining health-state occupancy with medical resource use and quality-of-life assigned to each of the three health states. The health outcomes included in the model were survival and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs).

Results Nivolumab was found to have the highest expected per-patient cost, but also improved per-patient life years (LYs) and QALYs. Nivolumab cost an additional $151,560 and $140,601 per QALY gained compared to docetaxel and erlotinib, respectively, using a PS model approach. The cost-utility estimates using a Markov model were very similar ($152,229 and $141,838, respectively, per QALY gained).

Conclusions Nivolumab was found to involve a trade-off between improved patient survival and QALYs, and increased cost. It was found that the use of a PS or Markov model produced very similar estimates of expected cost, outcomes, and incremental cost-utility.     

以德治税--对依法治税的进一步支持和补充

与“依法治税”的强调相比,税收思想道德建设确实显得相形见绌。也正因为这样,我们依法治税尽管取得了一定的成绩,但离我们预期的目标却相差甚远。通过论证“德”在税收工作全过程(税收立法、税收征纳、税款使用)中存在的重要性来说明“以德治税”是对“依法治税”的支持和补充,从而要求我们在进一步强化依法治税的同时,必须倡导“以德治税”观念。     

Cellular telephones in the Israeli market: the demand,the choice of provider and potential revenues

This study presents the methodology, the estimates and a scenario for forecasting the demand for cellular telephones and their use in Israel. The analysis was based on the integration of three sub-models. The estimate of the consumer's decision on whether to purchase a cellular telephone and what type was obtained by using a discrete choice model of the multinomial logit type. The total number of cellular telephone purchases to be made in Israel during the years 1998–2008 was estimated using a logistic growth model employing aggregate data over time. The anticipated demand for airtime was based on findings of a survey carried out on a national sample, and on actual usage data on the various consumers during the years prior to the survey. The research shows the substantial economic potential of Israel's cellular telephone market.     

The determination of the promotion process in organizations and of earnings differentials

The paper attempts to investigate the earnings distribution using Japanese male individual data. The model was estimated by applying a recursive multinomial logit framework. Much emphasis has been placed on investigating both the influence of hierarchy on the determination of earnings and the promotion process in hierarchical organizations. It was found that hierarchical position was very significant in determining the level of earnings. At the same time, hierarchical position (in other words, promotion) is largely determined by education, experience and unrecognized factors. It is proposed that education is used as a screening device in the promotion process.     

Educational growth: An analysis of distribution among Brazilian municipalities

This study analyzes the distribution of education in terms of quality and quantity in Brazilian municipalities during the first decade of 2000 to investigate how educational improvement was distributed to municipalities with different levels of income and education. Given the considerable educational heterogeneity and the lack of studies at the municipal level, the aim is to contribute to this debate by (1) applying the pro‐poor growth measurement methodology to indicators of educational quantity and quality (2) using the Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis, and (3) conducting estimations using the Growth Incidence Curve. The results indicate that there was an improvement in the quantity and quality of education and that, on average, educational growth can be considered pro‐poor.     

基于产出存在偏好的废弃物利用策略研究

废弃物利用能为参与企业带来经济效益和环境效益的双重提高,是实现低碳经济的重要途径之一。文章在消费者对以废弃物为原料的产品(简称产品B)和以原生材料为原料的产品(简称产品R)存在需求偏好的条件下,首先分析了废弃物交换具备经济性的条件,然后构建了一个"单一产生企业—单一利用企业"废弃链决策优化模型,通过对模型的求解发现了成本节约函数的4个临界值。接着通过案例,详细探讨了废弃物的废弃率、产品B对产品R的替代系数,以及产品R的价格弹性变动对企业决策的影响。最后,得出了以下结论:第一,当废弃物可能存在剩余时,产生企业的价格决策和产量决策与利用企业的生产决策无关。第二,当利用企业只生产产品B时,产生企业的价格决策和产量决策、利用企业的价格决策和产量决策均与产品B对产品R的替代系数无关。第三,随着废弃物废弃率的变动,交易企业策略将发生变化。文章为相关企业决策提供了理论依据。     

Volatility spillovers and connectedness among credit default swap sector indexes

This article studies volatility spill-over effects and market connectedness using daily data of credit default swap spreads for U.S. companies over a period from 2007 to 2012. We quantify volatility spillovers by means of an unconditional analysis performed using the entire sample, and a conditional analysis which estimates the model using a rolling window. As our database contains the global financial crisis (GFC), we are able to determine how volatility spillovers spread in the economy during the recent market turmoil. Our unconditional results confirm that the Financials sector was a main contributor to the overall market volatility along with the Consumer Goods, Consumer Services and Basic Materials sectors. The conditional analysis clearly identifies that the Financials was the major feeding sector of volatility spill-over effects, and that the market volatility was successively driven by Technology and Basic Materials over a rather short period of time, followed by Consumer Goods and Consumer Services over a prolonged period of time. Our results illustrate indirect linkages between the sectors that conveyed shocks during the GFC.     

关于魁奈宏观经济学理论的研究

魁奈以实现国民收入最大化为研究目标,以发现支出的自然规律以及如何使支出符合自然规律作为研究任务,以社会总资本作为研究对象,以再生产总量为研究出发点,运用抽象分析、总量分析、均衡分析等方法详细研究了影响农业支出进而影响农业再生产总量的各种因素以及这些因素与支出和再生产总量关系,并将这些因素和关系统一于经济表中,建立了以国民收入为核心的早期古典宏观经济学体系。     

环境效率评价及其影响因素的区域差异

本文基于SBM模型运用2000-2009年省级面板数据,测算了我国各省区环境效率,同时利用面板数据模型对影响环境效率的因素进行实证检验。结果表明:全国环境效率整体水平呈现下降的趋势,各区域环境效率差异较大;经济规模、产业结构、对外开放程度、政府规制和地区因素对我国环境效率均有显著影响,并且发现这些因素对于不同区域的影响程度存在差异;最后探讨我国环境投资对环境效率影响的区域性差异。     

基于中部地区崛起战略的河南省地域空间组织研究

河南省在中部地区崛起战略中占据重要的战略区位,不仅要注重自身发展,还应积极争取与邻近省份市县地域的有效对接,合力并举助推中部地区崛起战略的顺利实施。首先采用分形理论以及空间分析方法研究了河南省的地域结构特征,发现城市分布格局以郑州市为中心进行自组织演化,市县分布多沿交通干线,"轴带+圈层"的复合型地域结构显现;然后采用统计分类、城市规模分级方法,分析了河南省的经济、城镇以及交通发展现状,发现经济发展区域差异显著,城镇规模序列结构不完善,陆路综合交通网络发达;最后基于河南在中部地区崛起中的战略地位,提出了改善河南地域结构的结点优化、轴带组织和面域扩展相结合的系统化空间组织路径。