Evaluation of USDA's Broadband Loan Program: Impacts on broadband provision

Since 2002 the USDA's Broadband Loan Program has directed more than $1.8 billion in subsidized loans to help expand broadband access in under-served rural communities. Program eligibility criteria included having a population of 20,000 or fewer, having no prior access to broadband, and providing a minimum matching contribution of 15% by recipients of the loan. Loans were extended mainly to small telecommunications services firms at varying (subsidized) interest rates. We evaluate on the effectiveness of the Loan Program in increasing broadband availability in target locations. Specifically, we analyze whether loan receipt increases the number of broadband providers in a particular location, using various count panel methods. Our analysis is conducted at the ZIP code level over the period 1999–2008; it uses broadband provider data from the FCC's Form 477, and loan data from the Rural Utility Service (the implementing agency for the Broadband Loan Program). Results indicate that ZIP codes receiving broadband loans did in fact experience modest, statistically significant increases in the number of broadband providers vis-à-vis non-recipient locations; that average marginal effects on treated ZIP codes were approximately 0.092 additional broadband providers annually; and that these benefits accrued more towards rural locations than urban locations, in conformance with the intent of the program.     

Who is left behind? Exploring the characteristics of China's broadband non-adopting families

China has made significant progress in broadband development. As of September 2018, 95% of China's population was covered by 4G networks. However, our estimates show that nearly 30% of China's families did not use broadband that year. This study attempts to investigate the characteristics of China's broadband left-behind families. Overall, consistent with the findings for other countries, families with a lower socioeconomic status are more likely to be broadband non-adopters. In the information society, older, poorer, rural and less educated families are left behind. It is recommended that the Chinese government shift from a top-down investment-driven policy to a user-centered demand-driven policy to address the digital divide.     

The Internet of Things as an accelerator of advancement of broadband networks: A case of Thailand

The advanced development of broadband access is an inevitable step toward supportive daily lives and sustainable economic growth. However, the decisive outcome of the development relies heavily on the demand side. Consumer choice among advanced Internet broadband technologies will determine the achievement of the development. This study aims to illustrate that consumer decisions on choices of advanced Internet access are influenced by the emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) applications. A bivariate probit model is applied to examine the effects of IoT, consumer's individual characteristics, and their current use of networks on their decision pertaining to the choice of advanced Internet access. Using Thailand as a case study, the result indicates that the emergence of IoT applications accelerates the adoption of both advanced mobile broadband (5G) and advanced fixed broadband (FTTH). This finding may help policy makers to optimize the future direction of the Internet infrastructure development in Thailand, and also countries in a similar stage.     

Price elasticity of demand for broadband: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

In this study the authors analyze fixed broadband retail prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and provide estimates about the effect of price changes on broadband adoption. The analysis is based on a survey of plans and tariffs conducted by the authors during Q2 2010. Their results suggest that fixed broadband services in LAC are generally expensive and of poor quality when benchmarked against Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, although there is significant variance between markets in the region. In order to isolate the effect of prices on broadband adoption they use an instrumental-variable approach. Their findings show that broadband demand is relatively elastic to price in LAC but not in the OECD. They estimate that an average price reduction of 10% would result in an increase of almost 22% in the penetration rate in LAC, equivalent to almost 8.5 million additional broadband connections. Several policy implications result from these findings. First, national broadband policies in LAC should pay a closer attention to a deficit of competition in fixed broadband services, as households and firms face high prices for poor quality services, thus deterring adoption. Second, while their findings generally suggest that price reductions could significantly increase penetration, they elasticity estimates reveal that price effects might not be sufficient to achieve the penetration goals set in national broadband plans. This validates the need for complementary policy strategies that affect other determinants of broadband demand. The example of Brazil is used to illustrate this finding.     

Estimating willingness-to-pay for broadband attributes among low-income consumers: Results from two FCC lifeline pilot projects

Recent studies have confirmed that broadband adoption (as opposed to simply having access to broadband infrastructure) is positively linked with economic growth. In light of this, federal policy efforts have switched from focusing mainly on the provision of infrastructure to more explicit adoption-oriented efforts. One of those efforts was the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC’s) Low-income Broadband Lifeline Pilot Projects, which ran from 2013 to 2014. The program worked with 14 private telecommunications firms to subsidize household broadband adoption for low-income households by providing discounted monthly and equipment costs. Low-income households are an important component of the broadband adoption puzzle: between 2003 and 2013, the adoption gap between low-income and high-income households actually increased by 5% points. This paper focuses on two specific FCC Broadband Lifeline Pilot projects that allowed consumers to make choices among different options, such as data allowance, speed, and wireless vs. wired connections. Conditional logit models are used to develop estimates of consumer’s willingness-to-pay for specific broadband attributes. The results indicate that low-income consumers have a preference for smartphone connections (versus aircards) – and that this effect is even more pronounced for those households earning less than $20,000; that low-income consumers have a preference for wired connections (versus wireless); and that there is evidence that low-income consumers are willing to pay for an extra GB of data each month – but not for the speed of their connection.     

An estimate of the average cumulative royalty yield in the world mobile phone industry: Theory,measurement and results

An influential literature argues that dispersed patent ownership may lead to royalty stacking and excessive running royalties, thus increasing the long-run marginal cost of manufacturing phones and their prices. One set of estimates claims that the royalty stack is on the order of 20–40 percent of the value of the average phone. In order to assess this claim, we estimate the average cumulative royalty yield—the sum total of patent royalty payments earned by licensors, divided by the total value of mobile phones shipped— in the world mobile phone industry between 2007 and 2016.We “follow the money” and identify, with varying accuracy, 39 potential licensors in the smartphone value chain. We find that, of these, only 29 charged royalties in 2016, running from a low of $1.6 million to a high of $7.7 billion, summing to $14.2 billion in total, which compares with $425.1 billion in mobile phone sales. The average cumulative royalty yield in 2016 was 3.3 percent or $7.20 per phone. If we restrict this only to smartphones, the result would be $9.60 per phone, roughly 3.4 percent of the average selling price. A sensitivity analysis shows that even under a very restrictive set of assumptions, the average cumulative royalty yield on a smartphone would not exceed 5.6 percent.     

An evaluation of China's evolving broadband policy: An ecosystem’s perspective

Although it is generally agreed that governments should have some roles in the development of broadband, questions about the specific role of governments remain unanswered, particularly from the perspective of developing countries. This paper evaluates China’s evolving broadband policy by developing a two-dimensional analytical framework, with the different stages of broadband development represented by columns and the four components of broadband ecosystem represented by rows. Generally speaking, China's telecommunications development has been driven by investments from government-allied entities and features a strong industrial policy. However, the Chinese government has chosen a somewhat soft-intervention approach in broadband development and relied on the market itself to grow by creating a competitive market structure. As the market has recently evolved to a certain degree of saturation, there is a seemingly shift of emphasis in China's broadband policy from infrastructure buildup and service provision to application creation and user demand stimulation. However, China’s broadband future is uncertain due to unsettled but important institutional and financial issues. Policy changes appear not to keep up with the broadband ecosystem evolution.     

A retrospective study on the regional benefits and spillover effects of high-speed broadband networks: Evidence from German counties

This study aims to assess the economic benefits of high-speed broadband within and across neighboring counties in Germany. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset of 401 German counties with data from 2010 to 2015 as well as different panel estimation techniques, we find that an increase in average broadband speed has a significantly positive effect on regional GDP in the average German county. Furthermore, we find that broadband deployment in German counties induces not only substantial economic benefits in terms of direct effects within counties but also positive regional externalities across counties. According to our estimation results, an increase in average bandwidth speed by one unit (1 Mbit/s) induces a rise in regional GDP of 0.18%. This effect is almost doubled if we also take regional externalities into account (0.31%). Moreover, we find that regional agglomeraton effects are of particular relevance for rural counties. Our cost-benefit analysis of subsidies based on conservative estimates suggests efficiency gains, as the total economic per capita benefits (€164) of subsidy programs to encourage broadband expansion exceeded their associated per capita costs (€114).     

Efficiency in broadband service provision: A spatial analysis

With the 2008 Federal Communications Commission (FCC) order amending both the definition of broadband and its data collection practices, the problems associated with data integrity and ZIP code aggregations in the United States will soon be forgotten. However, between 1999 and 2007, FCC Form 477 data remain the only viable, nationwide database of broadband provision in the United States. While broadband data from 1999–2004 and 2005–2007 are not directly comparable due to a modification in collection procedure, there is an absence of objective empirical analysis for the latter time period. Interestingly, although the FCC made the 2005–2007 data publically available on the Internet, password protected files largely prevented analysts from accessing, manipulating and analyzing these data. The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, the process utilized for liberating these data from their protected format and integrating them into a geographic information system (GIS) is outlined. Second, the spatial distribution of broadband provision in the United States for 2005–2007 is explored. A mathematical programming approach is also utilized for comparing the relative efficiencies of ZIP code areas in acquiring broadband service given their demand-side socio-economic and demographic determinants. Finally, implications for public policy, particularly those associated with developing local and regional benchmarks for broadband provision, competition and access, are addressed.     

Is broadband the future? An analysis of broadband technology potential and diffusion

This paper examines the policy issues surrounding residential broadband technology, discusses how broadband extends Internet capabilities and at what cost, and makes recommendations for future applications of broadband. It focuses on residential broadband access, and in examining the future of broadband, it identifies three areas of concern: regulatory tendencies and tensions in the US, international diffusion of broadband, and the overall consumer appeal of broadband content. Specific policy recommendations center on providing regulation that guarantees open access, enforces reasonable pricing plans, and encourages innovative content.     

Universal service and the Telecommunications Act of 1996. The fact after the act

Three goals of the 1996 Telecommunications Act are competition, efficiency, and explicit mechanisms to further universal service. The new universal service policies violate these goals. I review the policies (support for highcost and rural areas, low-income subscribers, and educational and medical institutions, and the funding mechanism) and detect the influence of various interest groups and the regulators' desire to protect their policies from public scrutiny. The new policies will require $4–12 billion per year to fund and create inefficiency of $1.2–4.0 billion per year from revenue taxation. A more efficient tax scheme would increase total surplus.     

Population grid-based assessment of the impact of broadband expansion on population development in rural areas

This paper estimates the effect of the expansion of broadband infrastructure, which enables high-speed Internet, on population development in panel of Finnish areas in the period 2010–2018. The study differs from previous studies in that it uses accurate statistics on the availability of broadband in 1 km * 1 km population grids. Therefore, the impact of broadband availability on rural development is evaluated more accurately than previously. The results of the Difference-in-difference (DiD) regression analysis show that the availability of broadband reduces depopulation of remote and sparsely populated rural areas. In this respect, the telecommunication policy in Finland has been successful, and the findings encourage the expansion of broadband infrastructure in rural areas.     

MEASURING THE BUSINESS STEALING,CANNIBALIZATION AND MARKET EXPANSION EFFECTS OF ENTRY IN THE U.S. MOTION PICTURE EXHIBITION MARKET*

Using a large and comprehensive theater level database covering over $18 billion in theater revenues over a five year period, I document the extent and nature of business stealing, revenue cannibalization and market expansion that occurred during the height of the 1990's boom in movie theater construction.     

The Marginal Revenue Product of a Women's College Basketball Player

This paper estimates the marginal revenue product of a premium women's college basketball player. Ordinary least squares estimates indicate that acquiring another one of these players generates nearly $250,000 annually for her team. Quantile regression estimates, however, show that these quantitative effects vary substantially across teams: Players at less successful programs generate little revenue for their team, while those at the elite programs generate considerable revenues. The results provide empirical evidence that schools may have the ability to capture economic rents from the best players at the top women's basketball programs.     

Human milk supply in Australia

This paper aims to place a monetary value on the actual and potential supply of human milk in Australia. It estimates the quantity of milk produced in 1992. It considers different bases for determining a `shadow price' for breastmilk, and uses the method established by Oshaug and Botten (Food Policy 19(5), (1994), 479–482). It also calculates scenarios for different prevalences of breastfeeding, looking at the implications on the human milk supply of Australia achieving its National Health Targets, of all mothers breastfeeding according to the optimum regime recommended by the WHO and UNICEF in the Innocenti Declaration of 1990, or of a return to the `human milk famine' of the early 1970s. It concludes that Australian women supplied 33 million kg of breastmilk in 1992, compared to 16 million kg in 1972. Valued at A$67 per litre (the price of expressed human milk) the 1992 production level was worth $2.2 billion. This is around 0.5% of GDP, or 6% of private spending on food. Achieving international standards for `optimal' levels of breastfeeding, with breastfeeding continuing up to age two and beyond, would nearly triple the supply of human milk.     

Spatial data constraints: Implications for measuring broadband

The accurate determination of where broadband telecommunication services are available in the United States continues to be a significant challenge. Existing data regarding broadband provision, such as that provided by the Federal Communication Commission (FCC) simply designate ZIP codes with at least one high-speed Internet subscriber. As ZIP code areas vary greatly in size and shape, the lack of geographic specificity as to exactly where broadband is available, particularly within ZIP code areas, confounds communications policymaking. Further, there are a number of additional geographic nuances concerning broadband availability that also inhibit empirical examination and policy generation, including the spatial limitations of digital subscriber line services. The purpose of this paper is to briefly review the issues concerning broadband measurement in the United States and provide an empirical analysis of several spatial data constraints that must be accounted for when interpreting and constructing public telecommunications policy.     

Estimating the Effects of Movie Piracy on Box-office Revenue

Piracy is one of the most challenging problems faced by the motion picture industry. The Motion Picture Association of America estimates that US studios lose more than $3 billion annually in box office revenue from piracy. They have launched a major effort to prevent these losses. Yet their efforts are hampered by the ex post, counterfactual, and indirect methods by which losses are usually estimated. This paper addresses these issues directly. We develop and estimate a statistical model of the effects of piracy on the box-office performance of a widely-released movie. The model discredits the argument that piracy increases sales, showing unambiguously that Internet piracy diminished the box-office revenues of a widely released motion picture. The model overcomes a major weakness of counterfactual or “but for piracy” methods widely used to estimate damages. These counterfactual methods violate the “nobody knows” principle because they forecast what the movie would have earned in the absence piracy. The model we present does not violate this basic principle of motion picture uncertainty. We estimate that pre-release and contemporaneous Internet downloads of a major studio movie accelerated its box-office revenue decline and caused the picture to lose about $40 million in revenue.      

The impact on broadband access to the Internet of the dual ownership of telephone and cable networks

In Portugal, until recently, the telecommunications incumbent offered broadband access to the Internet, both through digital subscriber line and cable modem. We estimate the impact on broadband access to the Internet of the structural separation of these two businesses. Using a panel of consumer level data and a random effects mixed logit model, we estimate the price elasticities of demand and the marginal costs of broadband access to the Internet. Based on these estimates, we simulate the effect of structural separation on prices and social welfare. Our estimates indicate that structural separation would cause a substantial welfare increase. These results raise questions about the policy of some countries of allowing the dual ownership of telephone and cable networks.