港澳珠大桥的方案选择与财务可行性分析

首先介绍了港澳珠大桥的主要方案及分歧所在,然后从区域经济角度进行客货量预测,根据客货量预测和区域基础设施的发展规划,探讨大桥的功能定位并选择最佳方案——中线方案,最后根据客货量预测探讨了大桥的财务可行性,得出结论,港澳珠大桥财务可行。     

铁路产业投资基金：控股权、收益权与制度补偿

本文研究了铁路产业投资基金有关控股权、收益权与制度补偿等问题,运用实证分析法,对铁路投融资模式的选择及未来融资能力进行了探讨。本文的结论认为,铁路现有的投融资能力已难以支撑铁路大规模的建设需要,设立铁路产业投资基金势在必行。铁路行业的社会公益性、产权的单一性以及管理体制改革的滞后性,使得铁路产业投资基金具有一定的特殊性。发展铁路产业投资基金,首先需要优化基金的控股权,并通过相应的制度性补偿破解基金的收益瓶颈,实现以少量铁路资金带动数倍于己的社会资本投资铁路项目建设的目标。     

FROM ONE TO MANY ISLANDS: THE EMERGENCE OF SEARCH AND MATCHING MODELS

The notion of frictional unemployment failed to grow into a full‐fledged theory in the writings of Beveridge, Pigou and Hicks, as these economists were unwilling and/or unable to go beyond the then‐prevailing Marshallian approach. Here, first we make explicit the trade organization assumptions underpinning Marshall's equilibrium theory. Next we examine Beveridge's, Pigou's and Hicks' early works on wages and unemployment. Finally, we look at the seminal papers that paved the way for search literature: McCall, Lucas and Prescott, Mortensen and Pissarides. We show that they succeed in providing an unemployment result, because they indeed depart from the Marshallian trade organization.     

DECIDING WHEN TO DECIDE: COLLECTIVE DELIBERATION AND OBSTRUCTION

We study the impact of deliberation rules on collective learning and decision making in committees. In contrast to much of the existing literature, this article makes a distinction between the final votes over policy proposals and the cloture votes that bring them about. We show how deliberation rules can cause Pareto-inefficient outcomes and failures to bring good proposals to a final vote, and how they affect the distribution of power among committee members in the deliberative process. We further show that deliberation rules are dynamically stable, even when they generate Pareto-inefficient outcomes.     

WTO规则与大国开放竞争的后发优势战略

尽管我们无法从国外引进尖端核心技术,但是可以引进中间技术,较快地提升我国的技术水平。自主创新能力是在技术引进和模仿的过程中通过边干边学逐渐培育起来的。受WTO规则的约束,韩国式保护主义的发展已无可能,只能实施开放竞争的发展战略。大国优势的存在,使得开放竞争不会导致依附性的发展。给民营企业公平竞争的待遇,创造一个激烈竞争的市场环境,是自主创新战略成功的关键。     

市民化过程中土地退出 问题与制度改革的新思路

本文认为市民化过程是一个综合性的、全局性的系统工程,仅仅依靠户籍制度改革是不能解决问题的,还必须同步推进土地制度改革。本文从农村集体成员定义角度提出了解决土地制度改革和户籍制度改革的新思路。本文的观点是,把静态集体成员变为动态的集体成员,就能同时解决市民化过程中农村的衰落和农民工有偿退出承包地的双重困境。     

劳动分工的起源和制约-从斯密困境到广义斯密原理

"斯密困境"指斯密理论(看不见的手)与斯密定理(劳动分工受到市场规模的限制)的不能兼容。本文用生态文化的非线性动力学模型描写市场竞争和劳动分工。斯密困境可以用稳定性和复杂性之间的消长关系来解释。"广义斯密原理"即劳动分工受市场规、资源种类和环境涨落的三重限制,可解释历史上劳动分工发展的多样性。     

劳动分工的起源和制约-从斯密困境到广义斯密原理

斯密困境指斯密理论(看不见的手)与斯密定理(劳动分工受到市场规模的限制)的不能兼容.该文用生态文化的非线性动力学模型描写市场竞争和劳动分工.斯密困境可以用稳定性和复杂性之间的消长关系来解释.广义斯密原理即劳动分工受市场规、资源种类和环境涨落的三重限制,可解释历史上劳动分工发展的多样性.     

集体决策中的理性模型和政治模型-关于中国农地制度的案例研究

该文以中国农村为背景,试图发展一种可以检验集体决策过程是理性模型还是政治模型的方法.这一检验的新颖之处在于,它将集体决策与要素的相对稀缺性相联系.该文为两个模型推导出了不相容的假说,并用中国83个村庄的面板数据进行了经验检验.结果表明,两个模型均未被拒绝,但在更高级的检验中,政治模型略胜一筹.这表明中国农村的真实决策过程可能是理性模型和政治模型的混合体.     

集体决策中的理性模型和政治模型-关于中国农地制度的案例研究

本文以中国农村为背景,试图发展一种可以检验集体决策过程是理性模型还是政治模型的方法。这一检验的新颖之处在于,它将集体决策与要素的相对稀缺性相联系。本文为两个模型推导出了不相容的假说,并用中国83个村庄的面板数据进行了经验检验。结果表明,两个模型均未被拒绝,但在更高级的检验中,政治模型略胜一筹。这表明中国农村的真实决策过程可能是理性模型和政治模型的混合体。     

新一轮集体林权改革评价:林地分配平等性视角——基于福建调查的实证研究

总体来看,新一轮集体林权改革使林地分配状况变差,但是对于初始林地面积较低的林户而言,林地的分配状况是改善的。总体状况变差主要是由于初始林地面积较高的林户得到了更多的林地。另外,林地面积的变化与林户改革前所拥有的林地面积之间是"U"型关系。这主要是由改革的自上而下和制度变迁的路径依赖共同造成的。     

预算约束与金融制度选择的新理论:文献述评

本文的考察发现,在预算约束与金融制度结构之间存在着十分紧密的逻辑联系,而且国内外不少文献已经围绕于此展开了广泛而深入的讨论。针对预算约束与金融制度选择的关系,现有文献的理论发现大致包括三个层面:第一,虽然缓解乃至消除软预算约束是任何一种金融体系共同面临的挑战,但软预算约束的消除并非一定有利于长期经济增长;第二,分权的或者集权的金融体制都具有"内生性",因此,至少在理论上无法对其进行孰优孰劣的直观评判,同时也无法在它们之间进行简单的复制和移植;第三,金融体系应对预算约束问题的能力要远弱于企业制度,因此,当一个国家面对预算约束问题时,应当首先着手改善微观经济基础的金融需求结构,而不是调整金融供给结构。     

QUALITY CHOICE AND MARKET STRUCTURE: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF NURSING HOME OLIGOPOLIES

This article develops a dynamic model of entry and exit to analyze quality choice and oligopoly market structure in the nursing home industry. I find significant heterogeneity in the competitive effects across market structures: Firms of similar quality levels compete more strongly than dissimilar firms. Sunken entry costs are extremely large, and quality adjustment behavior is governed by significant fixed adjustment costs. A proposal to eliminate low‐quality nursing homes is found to cause a large supply‐side shortage, and another proposal to lower entry costs has offered a perverse incentive to provide low quality of care.     

NON-SEPARABLE CONSUMPTION-LABOR CHOICE AND THE INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS: A NOTE

This paper derives in the model developed by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) a steady state that is stationary in the presence of monetary policy shocks. To this end, the impact of monetary policy shocks on the current account is shut off by assuming that the preferences of households exhibit a particular non-separability between consumption and labor supply. [F31, F41]     

RISK AVERSION AND FIELD OF STUDY CHOICE: THE ROLE OF INDIVIDUAL ABILITY

Does the choice of field of study depend on individual risk aversion? The direction of the relationship between individual risk attitudes and type of university degree chosen is potentially ambiguous. On the one hand, risk averse individuals may prefer degree courses which allow high returns in the labour market; on the other hand, if these degrees expose students to a higher probability of dropping out, those who are more risk averse may be induced to choose less challenging fields. Using data from a sample of students enrolled at a middle‐sized Italian public university in 2009, we find that, controlling for a large number of individual characteristics, more risk averse students are more likely to choose any other field (Humanities, Engineering, and Sciences) rather than Social Sciences. We interpret this result bearing in mind that some of these fields, such as Humanities, involve a reduction in the risk of dropping out, while others (such as Engineering and Sciences) involve a lower risk in the labour market. It also emerges that the effect of risk aversion on degree choice is related to student ability. Risk averse students characterized by high abilities tend to prefer Engineering, while the propensity of risk averse students to enrol in Humanities decreases when ability increases, suggesting that the attention paid to labour market risks and drop‐out risk varies according to student skills.     

全球经济调整与中国的选择:一个历史演进视角

历史地看,中国曾经遗憾地错过了融入并主导16世纪以来全球化进程的机遇,作为其直接结果,晚明以来中国的经济贸易在外部因素的撞击下由盛而衰。目前,中国经济正在迅速融入全球化进程,合理的政策选择是走出传统的"天下主义"窠臼,确立平等而积极的角色,在全球经济竞争的新平台上,促使国家利益与民族经济利益的有机结合,以推动中国经济的迅速崛起。     

DISCRETE CHOICE AND RATIONAL INATTENTION: A GENERAL EQUIVALENCE RESULT

This article establishes a general equivalence between discrete choice and rational inattention models. Matějka and McKay (2015) showed that when information costs are modeled using the Shannon entropy, the choice probabilities in the rational inattention (RI) model take the multinomial logit form. We show that, for one given prior over states, RI choice probabilities may take the form of any additive random utility discrete choice model (ARUM) when the information cost is a Bregman information, a class defined in this article. The prior information of the rationally inattentive agent is summarized in a constant vector of utilities in the corresponding ARUM.     

政治关联、并购战略选择与企业价值*

本文以2010年发生并购的上市公司为初始样本,实证检验了企业政治关联对并购当年（2010年）和并购后连续五年（2011—2015年）企业价值的影响,并进一步分析这种影响在并购企业采用不同并购战略选择时是否存在显著差异。本文研究发现,并购企业中央政治关联和地方政治关联均对并购后企业短期价值和长期价值具有显著的正向影响。进一步研究发现,从总体上看,在一定条件下,跨地并购战略在企业中央政治关联与企业价值（短期/长期）间有正向的部分中介效应,即中央政治关联企业通过跨地并购战略的实施进一步增强了对企业价值的提升作用;企业地方政治关联可以显著地促进多元化并购战略的实施,而实施多元化并购战略进一步增强了对企业价值（短期/长期）的抑制作用,即多元化并购战略在企业地方政治关联对企业价值的影响机制中发挥部分中介效应,并且对直接正效应具有抑制作用。