Endogenous business cycles and dynamic inefficiency

This paper explores how the occurrence of local indeterminacy and endogenous business cycles relates to dynamic inefficiency, as defined by Malinvaud (1953), Phelps (1965) and Cass (1972). We follow Reichlin (1986) and Grandmont (1993) by considering a two-period overlapping generations model of capital accumulation with labor–leisure choice into the first-period of an agent's life and consumption in both periods. We first show that local indeterminacy and Hopf bifurcation are necessarily associated with a capital–labor ratio that is, at steady state, larger than the Golden Rule level. Consequently, paths converging asymptotically towards the steady state are shown to be dynamically inefficient, as there always exists another trajectory that starts with the same initial conditions and produces more aggregate consumption at all future dates. More surprising, however, is our main result showing that stable orbits, generated around a dynamically inefficient steady state through a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, may, in contrast, be dynamically efficient.     

后西方国际体系与东方的兴起

400年的现代国际体系是一个西方国际体系。历史上由于西方的兴起,欧洲或西方的政治制度、国家利益与霸权排他性地塑造了现代国际体系,深嵌的西方权力一直是该体系最重要的特征之一。现在,随着新兴经济体的群体性崛起,现代国际体系已经进入转型的前奏阶段,西方的衰落和东方的兴起预示着即将展开的国际体系是一个后西方国际体系。在后西方国际体系中,国际政治权力正在东移,以金砖国家为代表的新兴大国的群体性崛起,标志着东方正在回归国际体系的中心,美国及其西方盟国的群体性衰落,为西方世界向东方世界的权力让渡创造了条件,虽然权力让渡会导致国际体系产生某种紧张状态,但总体上国际体系不会失序,因为新兴经济体的意图在于和平渐进地改变世界权力的结构,同时反体系的革命会造成争霸战争的历史悲剧重演。显而易见,资本主义性质的世界市场仍然是后西方国际体系的一个遗传基质,西方权力持续弱化和东西方地位渐趋平衡将成为后西方国际体系的一个重要特征。世界正在走向一个没有霸权、力量相对均衡的国际秩序。     

完善我国民间借贷监管的思考

民间借贷在我国有悠久的历史,在古代就有钱庄、票号等民间融资机构,随着改革开放的不断深入,民间借贷在我国的资本市场上快速发展,为"三农"问题的解决和中小企业的发展起到了重要的作用,但同时,民间借贷还存在着大量的问题,今年的"吴英"案将社会对民间借贷的讨论推向了高潮。民间借贷冲击了正常的金融秩序,影响了国家的宏观调控,在发生信用问题的时候容易与黑恶势力相联系,引发社会问题,与高利贷甚至是洗钱犯罪有着密切的联系等等,这些充分暴露出了民间借贷的监管中还存在着大量的不完善的地方。民间借贷市场需要规制,引导其健康发展。本文对民间借贷市场存在的问题进行分析,参考国外的民间借贷监管经验提出一些建议。     

美国“民主联盟”战略对国际政治的影响

美国民主联盟战略与推进民主战略密切相联,它是为维护美国霸权地位而设计的。如果该战略得以实施,其将对国际政治产生诸多方面的影响。首先,它不利于国际秩序朝着更加公正合理的方向发展。这主要表现在联合国的作用将因民主联盟的存在而削弱,或者被迫朝着美国所希望的方向而改革。与之相应,西方国家对国际事务的主导权将进一步加强,发展中国家的话语权将减弱。其次,该战略在中近期内不利于国际安全形势的改善。因为它会干扰民主联盟成员与非民主联盟成员在维护国际安全上展开真诚合作,制约西方大国同其他大国之间关系的健康发展,甚至还有可能刺激某些地区局势动荡乃至发生暴力冲突。最后,民主联盟战略不利于世界政治格局朝着多极化和非极化方向演进,它在客观上只是有利于美国增加其软实力,促使其单极力量增强,而使多极力量与非极力量相对减弱。作者认为,这一战略不符合世界多数国家和人民的利益。     

央行利率政策的门限转换特征及国际证据

本文利用亚太地区15个国家1992~2007年的面板数据研究了央行利率政策的门限转换特征。结论认为,通货膨胀对经济增长的影响存在显著的门限特征,各国央行的利率政策也存在显著的门限转换特征。在低通胀阶段,利率没有对经济增长与通货膨胀做出显著响应;但在高通胀阶段,央行首先致力于维护金融稳定,然后促进经济增长。文章对发达国家与发展中国家进行了比较,发现二者的利率政策表现出相似的特征,但发展中国家的利率政策倾向于更高的门限值;文章最后对中国利率政策的实施提出了相关政策建议。     

国际热钱流入的经济影响与对策

近年来,由于人民币升值预期、美元与人民币利率之差拉大及国内的房地产、股票市场价格高涨,大量国际热钱通过各种渠道进入我国,对我国经济的稳定发展造成了很大的冲击。对此,我国政府应给予高度关注,并积极应对。可考虑的措施是:设法削弱市场对人民币升值的预期,选择适当时机进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制;转变政策导向,实现国际收支的基本均衡;审慎开放资本账户等。     

PATTERNS OF CO‐MOVEMENT BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND GERMANY: EVIDENCE FROM THE PERIOD 1985 TO 2006

This paper examines the co‐movement between Germany and South Africa by applying a dynamic factor model. Because these two countries have a long history of predominant trade ties, they deemed to be suitable proxies to analyse the channels of transmission of positive supply and demand shocks in a developed economy and the effects of these on an emerging market economy. In contrast to general expectations, the paper concludes that a German supply shock has more of a demand‐shock effect on the South African economy, while a German demand shock is transmitted through price in South Africa. This implies that the policy response in South Africa should not necessarily be the same as in Germany.     

International capital flows,debt overhang and volatility

This paper shows how international capital flows originate boom‐bust and sunspot episodes in a neoclassical growth model of a small, open economy. A limit is imposed on how much the economy can borrow from foreign creditors and it is made endogenous by assuming that the debt‐to‐GDP ratio is procyclical. The steady state is locally indeterminate when the credit multiplier is larger than some threshold level, whereas saddle‐point stability prevails when the credit multiplier is low enough. As a consequence, high levels of the credit multiplier lead to both booms followed by busts and sunspot‐driven volatility near the steady state, while, in contrast, low levels ensure monotonic convergence. Compared with saddle‐path equilibria, boom‐bust and sunspot equilibria are associated with both lower welfare and debt overhang, that is, a crowding‐out effect of credit: when the economy is highly leveraged, it uses savings to cut down foreign debt, at the expense of both human and physical investment. Numerical examples show that indeterminacy arises for debt‐to‐GDP ratios that fall within the range of available estimates. Finally, the effects of shocks to the world interest rate on output and consumption are amplified and persistent in the debt overhang regime.     

International Capital Mobility in the Short Run and the Long Run: A Daily Data Study for Japan,Singapore and Taiwan*

Using daily data from between 1993 and 2003, covered interest differential and cointegration tests are applied to examine short‐run and long‐run international capital mobility for Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, and, for comparison purposes, the UK. Despite the high short‐run mobility in Japan (Singapore and Taiwan), being slightly (significantly) lower than in the UK, perfect long‐run mobility exists in all three Asian economies, especially when the Asian currency crisis is excluded. Different short‐run and long‐run mobility implies the existence of a response lag in the financial market. As expected, although the impulse response reaches the significant long‐run equilibrium level shortly after the shock in the UK, lagged responses appear in the three Asian economies, particularly in Singapore and Taiwan.     

Interest rate rules and global determinacy: An alternative to the Taylor principle

A well‐known determinacy condition on interest rate rules is the “Taylor principle,” which states that nominal interest rates should respond more than 100 percent to inflation. Unfortunately, notably because interest rates must be positive, the Taylor principle cannot be satisfied for all interest rates, and as a consequence global determinacy may not prevail even though there exists a locally determinate equilibrium. We propose here a simple alternative to the Taylor principle, which takes the form of a new condition on interest rate rules that ensures global determinacy. An important feature of the policy package is that it does not rely at all on any of the fiscal policies associated with the “fiscal theory of the price level,” which has so far been the main alternative for determinacy.     

Policy Analysis and Development Evaluation of Digital Trade: An International Comparison

As an extension of traditional trade, digital trade is a new type of trade in the era of the digital economy. In this paper, we first analyze the digital trade‐related strategies of eight leading economies through word clouds and dissect China's digital trade‐related policies using the word frequency method by sorting through the digital trade‐related policy documents of 26 economies and Chinese provinces. We then evaluate the status quo of digital trade development in 111 countries and Chinese provinces by building a digital trade index system to determine the development environment and market potential. The results show that all countries attach great importance to digital technology, data and government guidance in the development of digital trade. The results also reveal that “development,” “service” and “construction” are the three most frequently used words in various Chinese documents. The overall level of China's digital trade is at the global vanguard, but is characterized by uneven regional development. In the era of digital trade, traditional international trade theory is also in urgent need of breakthroughs and innovation.     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

Monetary Policy Impulses and Retail Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Asian Banking Markets

This paper considers the integration of financial markets and mutual influences of monetary policies in the USA and Asia based on monthly data from 1994 to 2007. We used panel‐type and time‐series and quantile panel‐type error correction models to test the influences of expected and unexpected monetary policy impulses on the interest rate pass‐through mechanism in the financial markets of 9 Asian countries and the USA. The empirics show that if interest rate integration exists in the financial markets, the following effects are observed: (i) positive impulses of unexpected monetary policy will lead to an increase in the long‐run multiplier of the retail interest rate; (ii) the adjustment of retail interest rates with short‐run disequilibrium will lead to an increase in the long‐run markup; and (iii) the empirical results of quantile regression prove that when the interest variation is greater than the 0.5th quantile and unexpected monetary policy impulses are greater than the expected monetary policy impulses, the short‐run interest rate pass‐through mechanism becomes more unstable.