Do Mergers Improve Information? Evidence from the Loan Market

We examine the informational effects of M&As by investigating whether bank mergers improve banks' ability to screen borrowers. By exploiting a data set in which we observe a measure of a borrower's default risk that the lenders observe only imperfectly, we find evidence of these informational improvements. Mergers lead to a closer correspondence between interest rates and individual default risk: after a merger, risky borrowers experience an increase in the interest rate, while nonrisky borrowers enjoy lower interest rates. These informational benefits appear to derive from improvements in information processing resulting from the merger, rather than from explicit information sharing on individual customers among the merging parties. Our evidence suggests that part of these informational improvements stem from the consolidated banks using "hard" information more intensively.     

Can Islamic injunctions indemnify the structural flaws of securitized debt?

Securitization enhances liquidity of debt contracts. However, its structural deficiency at origination has led to the freezing of its secondary market and failure of institutions holding the collateral. This paper builds on key cultural (i.e., Islamic) rulings to rectify flaws entrenched in securitized debt stemming from asymmetric information and agency issues. These injunctions help in the efficient underwriting of debt contracts across the globe to: (i) redeem its ‘toxicity’; (ii) guarantee liquidity; (iii) alleviate fragility of the financial system; and (iv) promote economic growth. Finally, this study promotes a rethink of the current ‘Islamic’ financial system from a narrow literalist juridical perspective to one that is grounded in financial economics.     

What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space,CDS spreads and market pricing of risk

We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for fifty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005–10. We focus in particular on five countries in the South-West Eurozone Periphery, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Dynamic panel estimates show that fiscal space and other macroeconomic factors are statistically and economically important determinants of sovereign risk. However, risk-pricing of the Eurozone Periphery countries is not predicted accurately either in-sample or out-of-sample: unpredicted high spreads are evident during global crisis period, especially in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis swept over the periphery area. We match the periphery group with five middle income countries outside Europe that were closest in terms of fiscal space during the European fiscal crisis. Eurozone Periphery default risk is priced much higher than the matched countries in 2010, even allowing for differences in fundamentals. One interpretation is that these economies switched to a “pessimistic” self-fulfilling expectational equilibrium. An alternative interpretation is that the market prices not on current but future fundamentals, expecting adjustment challenges in the Eurozone periphery to be more difficult for than the matched group of middle-income countries because of exchange rate and monetary constraints.     

Can material asset reorganizations affect acquirers’’ debt financing costs?——Evidence from the Chinese Merger and Acquisition Market

In this paper, we investigate whether material asset reorganizations (MARs), a special form of merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions, can affect the acquirers’ cost of debt financing. Further, we examine the effect of acquiring firms’ accounting information quality on the cost of debt and on the association between MARs and debt costs. We predict that compared to conventional M&As, large-scale acquisitions through MARs can generate a much greater influx of assets from target firms. This raises the acquirers’ asset collateral and thus reduces the cost of debt. Because the quality of accounting information is a key factor affecting the cost of debt, we suggest that it has a spillover effect on the debt-cost effect of MARs. Using M&A transactions by listed companies in the Chinese A-share market from 2008 to 2014 as our sample, we find that MARs are associated with a higher asset collateral and lower ex post cost of debt than conventional M&As. Furthermore, we show that the acquiring firms’ accounting information quality has a significant negative effect on debt costs, and the negative association between MARs and the cost of debt is more pronounced when accounting information quality is higher.     

Does foreign competition affect corporate debt maturity structure? Evidence from import penetration

This paper examines an unexplored issue of how a firm's competitive environment, proxied by import penetration, affects its debt maturity structure. We document a significant, positive relationship between foreign product competition and the proportion of short-term debt. Our results are robust to a series of sensitivity tests and endogeneity concerns. Utilising large, unexpected reductions in import tariffs as exogenous shocks to foreign competition, we validate the positive effect of import penetration on short-term debt. Our results hold more strongly for firms with high information asymmetry and weak external monitoring. These findings indicate that lenders offer short-term debt to prospective borrowers when they exhibit higher information asymmetry in response to increased foreign competition. Additional tests reveal that short-term debt in a firm's financial structure, contingent upon foreign competition, encourages managers to engage in tax avoidance as an alternative funding source. Our study provides novel evidence of the consequential impact of foreign product competition in debt contracting, giving us insights into its practical implications for corporate strategies and the ramifications of trade liberalisation for policymakers.     

Can media deter management from manipulating earnings? Evidence from China

This study examines the influence of media exposure on managers’ earnings management behavior using China’s publicly traded firms during 2001–2009. We find that firms with more media exposure (both negative and non-negative) manage their earnings less than firms with less media exposure. We also find that “suspect firms” (being specially treated or with refinancing plans like seasoned equity offerings or right offerings) with more media exposure engage in more accrual-based earnings management relative to other firms. These results suggest that Chinese media serve as an external monitor to the majority of firms and place excessive pressure on suspect firms. This paper contributes incrementally to the literature by emphasizing the conflicting role media exposure plays in managerial decisions in earnings management. The findings of this study have practical implications for regulators, auditors, financial analysts, as well as other information intermediaries.     

Do subordinated debt holders discipline bank risk-taking? Evidence from risk management decisions

I test the market discipline of bank risk hypothesis by examining whether banks choose risk management policies that account for the risk preferences of subordinated debt holders. Using around 500,000 quarterly observations on the population of U.S. insured commercial banks over the 1995–2009 period, I document that the ratio of subordinated debt affects bank risk management decisions consistent with the market discipline hypothesis only when subordinated debt is held by the parent holding company. In particular, the subordinated debt ratio increases the likelihood and the extent of interest rate derivatives use for risk management purposes at bank holding company (BHC)-affiliated banks, where subordinated debt holders have a better access to information needed for monitoring and control rights provided by equity ownership. At non-affiliated banks, a higher subordinated debt ratio leads to risk management decisions consistent with moral hazard behavior. The analysis also shows that the too-big-to-fail protection prevents market discipline even at BHC-affiliated banks.     

Does Poor Performance Damage the Reputation of Financial Intermediaries? Evidence from the Loan Syndication Market

We investigate the effect of poor performance on financial intermediary reputation by estimating the effect of large‐scale bankruptcies among a lead arranger's borrowers on its subsequent syndication activity. Consistent with reputation damage, such lead arrangers retain larger fractions of the loans they syndicate, are less likely to syndicate loans, and are less likely to attract participant lenders. The consequences are more severe when borrower bankruptcies suggest inadequate screening or monitoring by the lead arranger. However, the effect of borrower bankruptcies on syndication activity is not present among dominant lead arrangers, and is weak in years in which many lead arrangers experience borrower bankruptcies.     

Do Business Borrowers Benefit from Bank Bailouts?: The Effects of TARP on Loan Contract Terms

We investigate benefits to business borrowers from bank bailouts, specifically the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Applying difference‐in‐difference methodology to loan‐level data, we find more favorable borrower contract terms in five dimensions, spread, amount, maturity, collateral, and covenants, suggesting increased credit supply at the intensive margin by bailed‐out banks. Findings are robust to dealing with endogeneity and other issues. Riskier borrowers benefit more, consistent with moral hazard exploitation. Small and unlisted borrowers benefit less, suggesting fewer benefits for financially constrained firms. Benefits accrue to both relationship and nonrelationship borrowers. Results contribute to the research and policy debates on bank bailouts.     

Information asymmetry and bank regulation: Can the spread of debt contracts be explained by recovery rates?

We investigate whether the spread of corporate debt contacts can be explained by their ultimate recovery rates. Using the actual realized recovery rates of defaulted debt instruments issued in the US from 1962 to 2007, we find that recovery rate is reflected in the spread at issuance, and that this relationship has become more significant since commercial banks were allowed to underwrite corporate securities. Our further investigation indicates that the enhanced informativeness of recovery rate can be attributed to the lowering of information asymmetry of individual firms. Besides, the relation between the spread at issuance and the recovery rate is stronger for weak corporate governance and non-investment grade issuers. Our conclusions are found to be robust to endogeneity issues, potentially omitted variables and alternative model specifications.     

Can compulsory liability insurance reduce agency costs? Evidence from China

This paper discusses the impact mechanism of compulsory liability insurance on agency costs. Studying the companies listed in China’s food manufacturing industries in 2011–2018, we find that compulsory liability insurance significantly reduces the two types of agency costs, namely, alleviating the principal-agent problem and the principal–principal problem. Robustness tests confirm this finding. The reduction of information asymmetry and the improvement of internal control quality are the mechanisms leading to this result. Compulsory food safety liability insurance plays a significant role in reducing agency costs when company ownership is concentrated or when media coverage is high. This paper provides empirical evidence for joint regulation by the public and private sectors, also provides theoretical reference for further optimizing food safety governance mode.     

Can CFOs resist undue pressure from CEOs to manage earnings?

Building upon the premise that, under certain conditions, the ability of the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) to pressure the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) is limited, we develop a measure of CFO resistance that captures the ability of the CFO to resist undue pressure from the CEO to manage earnings. In doing so, we consider various sources of power for both the CEO and CFO, and a market setting where CFO resistance is perceived to be high. We find that firms with resistant CFOs are less likely to engage in earnings management than firms with non-resistant CFOs, ceteris paribus. Additionally, while confirming prior evidence that CEOs with strong incentives are more likely to manage earnings, we show that this effect is significantly less pronounced in the presence of resistant CFOs. Overall, our findings suggest that firms can improve the quality of financial reporting by creating conditions that enable CFO resistance.     

Does the marginal child increase household debt? – Evidence from the new fertility policy in China

This paper investigates the effects of the number of children on household debt. Using data from the China Household Finance Survey in 2015 and 2017, this paper finds a positive relationship between the number of children in a family and household debt. To obtain a causal explanation via further analysis, this paper creates a natural experiment based on the new fertility policy implemented in China since 2016, and the results show that a marginal child significantly increases a family's household debt. Moreover, heterogeneous analysis reveals that the marginal child's effect on debt is larger both in households without a child before the marginal child's birth and in households located in urban areas. Finally, the results of this paper partly explain why the fertility rate has been low in China in recent years. The paper suggests feasible policies to raise the fertility rate.     

Can corporate governance deter management from manipulating earnings? Evidence from related-party sales transactions in China

This study investigates whether good governance structures help constrain management's opportunistic behaviors (in the form of transfer pricing manipulations) in one of the world's most dynamic economies. Our data are a unique sample of 266 companies listed on the Shanghai stock exchange that disclose gross profit ratios on related-party transactions. We find that firms with a board that has a higher percentage of independent directors or a lower percentage of “parent” directors (i.e., directors who are representatives of the parent companies of the listed firms), or have different people occupying the chair and CEO positions, or have financial experts on their audit committees, are less likely to engage in transfer pricing manipulations. Overall, our research findings reveal that the quality of corporate governance is important in deterring the use of manipulated transfer prices in related-party sales transactions.     

Can Companies Use Hedging Programs to Profit from the Market? Evidence from Gold Producers*

In this article, the authors summarize the findings of their recent study of the hedging activities of 92 North American gold mining companies during the period 1989‐1999. The aim of the study was to answer two questions: (1) Did such hedging activities increase corporate cash flows? (2) And if yes, were such increases the result of management's ability to anticipate price movements when adjusting their hedge ratios? Although the author's answer to the first question is “yes,” their answer to the second is “no.” More specifically, the authors concluded that:

• ? During the 1989‐1999 period, the gold derivatives market was characterized by a persistent positive risk premium— that is, a positive spread between the forward price and the realized future spot price—that caused short forward positions to generate positive cash flows. The gold mining companies that hedged their future gold production realized an average total cash flow gain of $11 million, or $24 per ounce of gold hedged, per year, as compared to average annual net income of only $3.5 million. Because of the positive risk premium, short derivatives positions did not generate significant losses even during those subperiods of the study when the gold price increased.
• ? There was considerable volatility in corporate hedge ratios during the period of the study, which is consistent with managers incorporating market views into their hedging programs and attempting to time the market by hedging selectively. But after attempting to distinguish between derivatives activities designed to hedge and those designed to profit from a view, the authors conclude that corporate efforts to time the market through selective hedging were largely if not completely futile. In fact, the companies' adjustments of hedge ratios appeared to consistently lag instead of leading the market.

     

Can Losses Caused by Wind Storms be Predicted from Meteorological Observations?

This paper contains a study of the extent to which aggregate losses due to severe wind storms can be explained by wind measurements. The analysis is based on 12 years of data for a region, Ska § ne, in southern Sweden. A previous investigation indicated that wind measurements from six recording stations in Ska § ne was insufficient to obtain accurate prediction. The present study instead uses geostrophic winds calculated from pressure readings, at a regular grid of size 50 kilometres over Ska § ne. However, also this meteorological data set is seen to be insufficient for accurate prediction of insurance risk. The results indicate that currently popular methods of evaluating wind storm risks from meteorological data should not be used uncritically by insurers or reinsurers. Nevertheless, wind data does contain some information on insurance. risks. There is a need for further research on how to use this information to improve risk assessment.     

Can non-executive equity incentives reduce internal control ineffectiveness? Evidence from China

Using data from Chinese listed firms for the period 2012–2018, we provide new evidence that the intensity of non-executive equity incentives can reduce the likelihood of internal control weaknesses and improve internal control effectiveness. We also find that internal control weaknesses are more likely to be remedied in firms that implement strong non-executive equity incentive polices. Besides, we document novel results that employee equity incentives for non-executives can optimise the internal environment, improve the internal supervision system, and thereby reduce the operational-level weaknesses of a company’s internal controls.     

Can VPIN forecast geopolitical events? Evidence from the 2014 Crimean Crisis

We study the recent Crimean Crisis and the sequence of outcomes that led to the intervention by the Russian Army, which directly affected equity prices in Russia, to investigate how informed traders may have used their advantage to trade prior to the moment markets fell. We compute the Volume-synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) for the Russian RTS equity index and for individual stocks, documenting that levels of informed trading increased considerably between one and three trading days before market prices reflected the invasion. We also investigate the predictive power of the cumulative distribution of VPIN on future stock prices, showing a statistically significant (negative) relation during the period of elevated tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Last, we investigate the levels of VPIN measured for global depositary receipts of Russian firms, documenting a similar increasing pattern prior to the invasion date but generally subsequent to the spikes obtained from the corresponding securities locally traded in Russia. Overall, our results provide additional support for the use of VPIN as a tool for monitoring the likelihood of undesirable geopolitical events.     

Can corporate governance save distressed firms from bankruptcy? An empirical analysis

We examine financially distressed firms and document how governance characteristics affect (1) a firm’s ability to avoid bankruptcy and (2) the power of financial/accounting information to predict bankruptcy. Overall, our findings indicate that a distressed firm’s governance characteristics significantly affect its probability of bankruptcy. We find that smaller and more independent boards with a higher ratio of non-inside directors and with larger ownership stakes of inside directors are more effective at avoiding bankruptcy once distress is indicated. These results are consistent with the belief that these types of governance structures induce more effective monitoring. The results are also consistent with the view that the inclusion of governance characteristics enhances the power of financial accounting models in predicting bankruptcy.

Can SRI funds better resist global financial crisis? Evidence from Japan

This paper compared Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) funds and conventional funds in the Japanese market with respect to the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008. Taking the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers as a particular event, we estimated the average cumulative abnormal returns of both funds by event study methodology using a Fama–French three-factor model and EGARCH model. Our results suggest that SRI funds better resisted the bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers than conventional funds. We also found that this result can be attributed to the existence of international funds, possibly because investors might evaluate the CSR activities of international firms more than those of domestic firms. Alternatively, it can be interpreted that the universe of domestic SRI funds is too limited to enjoy risk diversification.