Is a Futures Market Viable in Turkey? The Case of a Cotton Futures Market

Abstract

Many countries as they reduce price controls develop an interest in futures markets as a way to manage risk. This article explores the potential of using existing futures markets to hedge cotton in Turkey. Futures prices in New York and Liverpool are not cointegrated and only weakly correlated with cash prices in Izmir. Thus, existing futures markets have limited ability to reduce the risk faced by the cotton industry in Turkey. While there are obstacles to overcome, there does appear to be a potential demand for a cotton futures market in Turkey.     

Deregulation of the Australian Wheat Export Market: What Happened to Wheat Prices?

ABSTRACT

This report investigates whether deregulation of the Australian wheat export market induced a structural change in the price data generation process. We analyze the unit root properties of Western Australian wheat price series by testing for the possibility of single and double structural breaks. Daily spot prices for the period of May 20, 2003, to September 14, 2010 are used. We find the wheat price series has a unit root with two structural breaks but neither breaks coincides with the time when the Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 came into effect on July 1, 2008. The implication of our results is that deregulation was not the main cause of structural breaks in the price series in the sample period.     

From researcher to farmer: partnerships in integrated aquaculture—agriculture systems in Malawi and Cameroon

The potential for integrating aquaculture with agriculture has been widely recognized as a means of improving the use of inputs, diversifying output and economic opportunity, and enabling smallholder producers to maintain and strengthen livelihoods. This paper describes the outcomes of this approach and explains the extent to which it has been taken up and has led to sustained and self-generated capacity. Based in particular on experience in Malawi, Ghana and Cameroon, it also considers implications more widely in the region. The overall picture is that this is a partial and still emerging success story, linked as much with the social and economic drivers surrounding smallholder farmers as with the development support approach adopted.     

Central versus local states: Which matters more in affecting China's urban growth?

To date, many geography studies have identified GDP, population, FDI, and transportation factors as key drivers of urban growth in China. The political science literature has demonstrated that China's urban growth is also driven by powerful economic and fiscal incentives for local governments, as well as by the political incentives of local leaders who control land use in their jurisdictions. These parallel but distinct research traditions limit a comprehensive understanding that can result in partial and potentially misleading conclusions of urbanization in China. This paper presents a spatially explicit study that incorporates both political science and geographic perspectives to understand the relative importance of hierarchal administrative governments in affecting urban growth. We use multi-level modeling approach to examine how socio-economic and policy factors – represented here by fiscal transfers – at different administrative levels affect growth in “urban hotspot counties” across three time periods (1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2008). Our results show that counties that are more dependent on fiscal transfers from the central government convert less cultivated land to urban use, controlling for other factors. We also find that local governments are becoming more powerful in shaping urban land development as a result of local economic, fiscal, and political incentives, as well as through the practical management and control of capital, land, and human resources. By incorporating fiscal transfers in our analysis, our study examines a factor in the urban development of China that had previously been neglected and provides an improved understanding of the underlying processes and pathways involved in urban growth in China.     

Domestic or Imported Beer Brands? Analysis and Assessment of Brand Equity in the Spanish Market

The Spanish brewing industry is a main economic sector and a major activity in the agrifood area; however, there are few studies regarding the analysis of brand equity in this product. This study aims to analyze brand equity for both a domestic beer brand—Estrella Galicia—and an imported beer brand—Carlsberg. For this purpose a quantitative study is carried out among consumers in order to assess the sources or dimensions of brand equity and its consequences, comparing the 2 brands present in the Spanish market. Results obtained suggest a better evaluation of the domestic brand and reveal that brand loyalty and perceived quality are the dimensions with a higher relevance in beer brand equity.     

From coping to adaptation to economic and institutional change – Trajectories of change in land-use management and social organization in a Biosphere Reserve community,Mexico

Smallholder farming communities are increasingly affected by local impacts of international market dynamics, and (inter)governmental economic and nature conservation policies to which they respond through coping or adaptation. Although the attributes that underpin the capacity to adapt are widely agreed upon in literature, empirical evidence on how rural communities can develop adaptations are still scarce. Here, we provide such evidence based on a comprehensive driver-response reconstruction of a community in the buffer-zone of a Biosphere Reserve in Chiapas, Mexico. We found that coping (between 1990 and 2000) was gradually replaced by adaptations (1995–2010) based on: (i) diversification of land-use, (ii) improved social organization, (iii) improved communal decision-making, and (iv) more sustainable forms of land management. The diversification of local farming systems through inclusion of organic forest-based palm and coffee cultivation and the establishment of associated organizations, formed the basis of these changes. These adaptations were mainly supported by improved social, institutional and political capital. Communal forest resources, long-term support of an NGO and a highly motivated population, were essential circumstances that allowed these trajectories to develop. However, current unequal land and power distribution could undermine and debilitate adaptive capacity. Communities and supportive organizations need to be aware and capable to adjust continuously to prevent today's adaptation strategies from becoming tomorrow's coping responses.     

What's in a Name? Defining New Entrants to Farming

New entrants to farming are eligible for CAP targeted supports. The intention of these supports is to promote innovativeness and sustainability in the agricultural sector through generational renewal. However, new entrants (successors or those completely new into the industry), still face multiple barriers above other longstanding farmers, including lack of access to necessary capital, land and housing. There is also ambiguity about the success of new entrant supports in achieving their stated objectives. We draw on results from an online survey distributed to anyone involved in farming in Europe, including European new entrants and those working in new entrant support services. Survey respondents were asked how they would define a ‘new entrant farmer’. A clear majority of respondents indicated that new entrants should be new to the industry; that is, not successors to existing farm businesses. A substantial minority of respondents indicated that new entrants should be establishing innovative new businesses, with an overlapping cohort emphasising sustainability. Very few respondents identified age as an important criterion. We argue that the new entrant definition utilised in policy supports could be more targeted towards policy objectives, distinguishing social justice supports (enabling newcomers to enter the sector), from supports for innovation (e.g. venture capital funds) and sustainability (greening the CAP).     

From neoliberalism to national developmentalism? Contested agrarian imaginaries of a postneoliberal future for food and farming

This review examines three recent books that address the relationship between neoliberalism and agribusiness, on the one hand, and the demise of smallholder farming, traditional diets and the rise of diet‐related chronic illness, on the other. The first, by Timothy Wise, adopts what may be characterized as an ‘agrarian populist’ stance, constructing a universal binary between trans‐nationalizing agribusiness and a unified family farm sector. Protagonists from the latter are seen to embody the future, using agroecology to feed the world sustainably in a time of climate crisis. This is not a consistently propeasant stance, however; Wise seems rather to advocate a ‘farmer road’ to national capitalist development. The other two books, by Alyshia Galvez and Gerardo Otero, cover quite similar ground to one another, looking explicitly at the rise of neoliberalism, the decline of traditional farming and diets and the rise of processed food‐related diseases. Unlike ‘agrarian populists’, both authors privilege the state and ‘class struggle’ (sensu lato) in analysing the dynamics of neoliberalism, free trade agreements and food policies. Normatively, both see the state as pivotal in generating policies centred around smaller scale farming and the production of nutritious food for all. For Otero, like Wise, these policies seem to be tied to a form of national developmentalism as an escape route from neoliberalism. For Galvez, the future is less clear‐cut—although by inclination ‘propeasant’, she does not exclude elements of national developmentalism in envisioning a postneoliberal world.     

Does It Pay to Increase Competition in Combinatorial Conservation Auctions?

Conservation auctions allow landholders to propose conservation projects and associated payments (bids) for consideration by a conservation agency. Recently, the application of iterative combinatorial auction designs has been proposed to improve outcomes of conservation auctions. In combinatorial auctions, landholders are allowed to offer projects each of which involves activities aimed at providing one or multiple services. An iterative format allows bidders the opportunity to gradually explore the type of projects they want to offer, with this process being facilitated through price feedback provided based on intermediate auction round results. Auction designs vary with the type of feedback and respond differently to market conditions. At present there is a lack of information about their performance in markets with varying degrees of competition (in terms of number of bidders and level of target). Therefore, using an agent‐based simulation model, we evaluate a number of iterative auction designs. We observe that a higher degree of competition leads to a higher auction efficiency. In a high competition environment, efficiency outcomes tend to be less sensitive to auction design choices. Therefore, an auctioneer could enjoy freedom in design choice if adequate competition could be ensured. In weak competition environments, however, some auction designs perform better than others.     

Is a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth contributing to the rise in commodity prices?

A slowdown in the rate of agricultural productivity growth is thought by many observers to be contributing to the recent rise in agricultural prices. In this article I decompose sources of output growth in global agriculture into aggregate input and total factor productivity (TFP) components and examine whether productivity growth slowed substantially in the years leading up to the recent rise in commodity prices. Contrary to widely held perceptions, I find no evidence of a general slowdown in sector‐wide agricultural TFP, at least through 2006. If anything, the growth rate in agricultural TFP accelerated in recent decades. However, the results do show a slowdown in the growth of agricultural investment. Accelerating TFP growth largely offset decelerating input growth to keep the real output of global agriculture growing at about 2% per year since the 1960s. Regionally, however, agricultural productivity performance has been uneven. These findings have important implications for the appropriate supply‐side policy response to the current agricultural price crisis.     

Can life cycle assessment be used to evaluate plant breeding objectives to improve supply chain sustainability? A worked example using porridge oats from the UK

The challenge for agricultural production in the 21st century is to produce sufficient high-quality food whilst minimizing impact. Life cycle assessment (LCA) can help by identifying the parts of a supply chain with the greatest environmental impact, and to determine which technologies – for example plant breeding – may be most appropriately employed to minimize negative impacts. A ‘plough-to-plate’ LCA of a porridge oat production chain was undertaken using data that corresponds to the inputs and outputs of an indicative supply chain. The greatest environmental impact of the porridge oats life cycle occurs in crop production and cooking. There are traits for oats that are available for manipulation by plant breeders, which can influence these areas; these include yield, nitrogen use efficiency and beta-glucan content. Therefore plant breeding may be a useful strategy for improving the sustainability of the crop. However LCA cannot be a definitive tool to guide plant breeding and therefore this approach needs to compliment others. Nevertheless this study highlights that porridge oat supply chain sustainability would benefit from an integrated effort stretching from the geneticist to consumer; a finding that is likely to be relevant to other food supply chains.     

Meat demand in China: to include or not to include meat away from home?

This study examines meat consumption in China, the world's largest meat consumer and producer, by considering both meat consumed at home and away from home based upon a diary‐based household survey. The results indicate that income growth leads to beef, poultry, other meat and pork away from home consumption to grow more than proportionally to total meat consumption. We also find that meats consumed away from home grow faster than at home counterparts due to higher income elasticities, suggesting that ignoring meat away from home could significantly underestimate current and future meat consumption.     

Boys' versus Girls' Schooling in Nepal: Does It Vary by the Extent of Mothers' Autonomy?

This paper hypothesises that resource allocation affecting the decisions relating to sons' versus daughters' schooling in Nepalese households is dependent on the extent of the mother's autonomy. Here, we posit that women's autonomy is a relative concept as a woman has degrees of decision-making power within her household. The results indicate that daughters' education is more likely to benefit when mothers solely make the decisions, but when decisions are made jointly with her spouse then the decisions are more likely to be in favour of sons' education. Our results indicate a marked gender difference in parental decisions over children's education, in the direction posited above, and less than 10% of mothers in the sample have complete autonomy over such decision-making. These results are important for policy-makers wishing to decrease gender bias in children's educational outcomes.     

An actor-oriented approach to understanding dairy farming in a liberalised regime: A case study of Ireland’s New Entrants’ Scheme

With the abolition of dairy quotas in 2015 major change in Europe’s dairy industry is anticipated at the level of individual farms, with consequences for how land is utilised and managed. Critical questions in this context are how farmers react to the myriad challenges coming forth from changed policy circumstances and, more specifically, the factors that influence their responses to these challenges at farm level. As part of a broader multi-disciplinary research project, this paper presents a narrative analysis of dairy farmers participating in Ireland’s New Entrants’ Scheme, an initiative that has facilitated the establishment of over two hundred new dairy farms. Salient with an increasing literature on Agriculture Knowledge and Innovation Systems (AKISs) within agriculture, the paper focuses specifically on the actors who influence the decisions of the New Entrants (NEs) at this critical juncture in the transformation of dairy policy. Led by Norman Long’s actor-oriented approach, we examine social interfaces involving NEs and different categories of actors. We found that interfaces conditioned by coercive behaviour on the part of actors had a narrow scope of influence on farmers’ decisions compared to interfaces characterised by relatively equal power relations. The latter interfaces had the capacity to be strongly influential on broad habitual production and management decisions. Interfaces involving family members, however, had ultimate influence on major strategic decision-making, including decisions to establish new enterprises. Overall, our analysis suggests that NEs are empowered decision-makers in their social interfaces with other AKIS actors and our biographical approach to the analysis indicates that quota deregulation itself has not led to radical changes in who influences NEs’ decision-making.     

Cash Transfers in Nepal: Do They Contribute to Social Inclusion?

It is often assumed that social protection leads to social inclusion and other well-being indicators. Yet evidence of this impact is weak. Cash transfers are a social protection tool designed to reduce poverty which can also have an impact on human development indicators such as health and education. In the district of Sarlahi, Nepal, cash transfer amounts are too low to improve health and education opportunities or productive pursuits and thus to break the inter-generational cycle of poverty. However, the transfer allows beneficiaries to participate more in community activities, increases their access to information and social networks, and enhances the social contract and people's relationship with the state. This breaks down some of the invisible barriers that perpetuate exclusion. Paying cash transfers in Nepal kick-starts other processes of inclusion and well-being that are hard to overcome by other means because they are invisible, denied and relational. The findings reveal that universal transfers generate perceptions of equality for beneficiaries who value receiving the same thing from the state as the rich. Yet being treated the same as the well-off will not necessarily lead to equal opportunities, poverty reduction or improved local governance. Cash transfers can facilitate social inclusion but are not enough alone to achieve substantive inclusion.     

Does Market Structure Influence Price Transmission in the Agro‐food Sector? A Meta‐analysis Perspective

There exists a large literature on price transmission in agro‐food sectors. However, a great majority of empirical studies focus on the existence of asymmetry and, by and large, do not investigate the reason for its presence or absence. This is in sharp contrast to the theoretical literature that provides a number of explanations of why we should expect (a)symmetry. In response, this paper investigates the reasons for asymmetric price transmission in the agro‐food chain, using meta‐analysis of existing studies. Our focus is on the organizational and institutional characteristics of the agro‐food supply chain. Our findings suggest that asymmetric price transmission in farm–retail relationships is more likely to occur in sectors/countries with more fragmented farm structure, higher governmental support and more restrictive regulations on price controls in the retail sector. On the other hand, more restrictive regulations on entry barriers in the retail sector and the relative importance of the sector tend to promote symmetric farm–retail price transmission. The latter is also more likely in the presence of a strong processing industry.