Heterogeneous Background Risks and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from Micro‐level Data

We construct a set of household‐level background risk variables to capture the covariance structure of three nonfinancial assets and two financial assets. These risks are in general statistically significant and economically important for a household's stock market participation and stockholdings. A one‐standard‐deviation increase in background risks reduces the participation probability by 11% and the stockholdings‐to‐wealth ratio by 4%. The volatilities of labor income, housing value, and business income reduce a household's participation and stockholdings. A household with labor income highly correlated with stock (bond) returns is less (more) likely to invest in stock.     

Long‐Run Consumption Risk and Asset Allocation under Recursive Utility and Rational Inattention

We study the portfolio decision of a household with limited information‐processing capacity (rational inattention [RI]) in a setting with recursive utility. We find that RI combined with a preference for early resolution of uncertainty could lead to a significant drop in the share of portfolios held in risky assets, even when the departure from the standard expected utility setting with full‐information rational expectations is small. In addition, we show that the equilibrium equity premium increases with the degree of inattention because inattentive investors with recursive utility face greater long‐run risk and thus require higher compensation in equilibrium.     

Housing,consumption and asset pricing

This paper considers a consumption-based asset pricing model where housing is explicitly modeled both as an asset and as a consumption good. Nonseparable preferences describe households’ concern with composition risk, that is, fluctuations in the relative share of housing in their consumption basket. Since the housing share moves slowly, a concern with composition risk induces low frequency movements in stock prices that are not driven by news about cash flow. Moreover, the model predicts that the housing share can be used to forecast excess returns on stocks. We document that this indeed true in the data. The presence of composition risk also implies that the riskless rate is low which further helps the model improve on the standard CCAPM.     

Saving and Portfolio Allocation Before and After Job Loss

We investigate the development of household labor income, financial wealth, and asset holdings over a 9‐year period around job loss, using unique administrative panel data from Norway. Consistent with predictions from theory, the data show additional saving and a shift toward safer assets in the years leading up to unemployment, and depletion of savings after job loss. In the years after job loss, the households' after‐tax labor income is reduced by about USD 12,500. Over the same time period, households deplete USD 3,000 of their financial assets, of which one third is accumulated prior to the job loss. This suggests that at least some households can foresee and prepare for the upcoming unemployment, which indicates that private savings can, to some extent, serve as a substitute for publicly provided unemployment insurance.     

EXPECTED VOLATILITY,UNEXPECTED VOLATILITY,AND THE CROSS‐SECTION OF STOCK RETURNS

The existing literature finds conflicting results on the cross‐sectional relation between expected returns and idiosyncratic volatility. We contend that at the firm level, the sample correlation between unexpected returns and expected idiosyncratic volatility can cloud the true relation between the expected return and expected idiosyncratic volatility. We show strong evidence that unexpected idiosyncratic volatility is positively related to unexpected returns. Using unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns, we find expected idiosyncratic volatility to be significantly and positively related to expected returns. This result holds after controlling for various firm characteristics, and it is robust across different sample periods.     

Financing Decisions along a Firm’s Life‐cycle: Debt as a Commitment Device

We analyse the life‐cycle patterns of a firm’s financing decisions and their interaction with future growth and development decisions. We derive different financing sequences which we link to existing empirical research as well as derive new testable hypotheses regarding differences in firms’ financing decisions to project, firm, market and country characteristics. We provide a rationale for the importance of (external) start‐up debt financing as observed in recent empirical studies. Furthermore, we argue that equity financing at both development stages is more likely for closely‐held firms and in countries in which entrepreneurs face high stigmatisation costs.     

Experimental Evidence on Portfolio Size and Diversification: Human Biases in Naïve Security Selection and Portfolio Construction

We conduct an experiment in which individuals select securities to reproduce the well‐known relationship between portfolio risk and the number of securities. The standard result occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of whom effectively de‐diversify as they add seemingly random securities. Moreover, only slightly better results are achieved using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of securities are required for diversification and shows that it is applicable only to a large sample. The implications are important given that many individual investors hold very few stocks in their portfolios.     

Expected Time Value Decay of Options: Implications for Put‐Rolling Strategies

Assuming the underlying asset price remains constant, previous studies show that the time value of an option decays gradually at a rate that accelerates over time and peaks at the expiration date. Thus, a significant portion of time value is lost in the four weeks leading up to expiration. This paper shows the time value of currently at‐ or near‐the‐money options should be expected to decay at a rate that decreases over time. The time values of options that are currently deep‐in‐ or deep‐out‐of‐the‐money are expected to initially rise and then resume the normal decay pattern.     

The Performance of Characteristics‐based Indices1

This paper analyses a set of characteristics‐based indices that, it has been argued, outperform market cap‐weighted indices. We analyse the performance of an exhaustive list of these indices and show that i) the outperformance over value‐weighted indices may be negative over long time periods, and ii) there is no significant outperformance over equal‐weighted indices. An analysis of the style and sector exposures of characteristics‐based indices reveals a significant value tilt. When this tilt is properly adjusted for, the abnormal returns of these indices decrease considerably. Moreover, it is straightforward to construct portfolios with higher Sharpe ratios than characteristics‐based indices through factor or sector tilts.     

Investment Irreversibility,Cash Flow Risk,and Value‐Growth Stock Return Effects

We simulate results from a simple real options model to provide insight into the value‐growth stock return anomaly. In our model, firms possess either single (“value” firm) or multiple (“growth” firm) investment opportunities. Our model predicts that growth firms: (1) invest sooner, (2) exhibit greater continuity in capital expenditure over time, (3) have lower book‐to‐market ratios, and (4) generate lower rates of return than value firms.     

美国房地产周期与经济衰退的可预测性研究

本文对房地产周期与收益率曲线反转对经济衰退的预测两个变量的联合预测进行了理论探讨和实证检验。实证结果表明,房地产周期和收益率曲线反转的联合预测力远大于单变量预测力。将本文实证结果应用于2006年以来经济数据的分析表明,从预测角度看美国经济将在2007-2008年间进入衰退。     

Tactical Industry Allocation and Model Uncertainty

We use Bayesian model averaging to analyze industry return predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. The posterior analysis shows the importance of inflation and earnings yield in predicting industry returns. The out‐of‐sample performance of the Bayesian approach is, in general, superior to that of other statistical model selection criteria. However, the out‐of‐sample forecasting power of a naive i.i.d. forecast is similar to the Bayesian forecast. A variance decomposition into model risk, estimation risk, and forecast error shows that model risk is less important than estimation risk.     

The Equity Premium: Consistent with GDP Growth and Portfolio Insurance

We find that the long‐term equity premium is consistent with both GDP growth and portfolio insurance. We use a supply‐side growth model and demonstrate that the arithmetic average stock market return and the returns on corporate assets and debt depend on GDP per capita growth. The implied equity premium matches the U.S. historical average over 1926–2001. Separately, we find that the equity premium tracks the value of a put option on the S&P 500. Our theory predicts a smaller equity premium in the future, assuming that the recent regime shifts in dividend policies, interest rates, and tax rates are permanent.     

Suppliers’ and customers’ information asymmetry and corporate bond yield spreads

This study investigates the information asymmetry effects of suppliers and customers on a firm’s bond yield spreads by employing American bond market data from 2001 to 2008. This study finds that both suppliers’ and customers’ information asymmetry effects significantly explain a firm’s bond yield spreads. Besides, the information asymmetry effects of more important suppliers and customers are more significant than those of less important ones. The results are robust even after controlling for other well-known firm specific and economic variables.     

Closed‐End Fund Discounts and Expected Investment Performance

This article provides empirical support for the theory that closed‐end fund discounts reflect expected investment performance. Evidence is presented to explain how equity closed‐end fund initial public offerings (IPOs) can sell at a premium when existing funds sell at a discount and why the initial IPO premiums decay after the IPO. Relative premium decay data are presented. Tests on (1) the relation between relative premium changes and investment performance following IPOs, (2) relative premium mean‐reversion following management changes, and (3) net redemptions following closed‐end fund open‐endings for funds trading at pre‐open‐ending announcement discounts individually support and collectively strongly support the theory.     

Endogenous leverage and expected stock returns

This note clarifies conditions under which endogenous choice of debt induces a negative relation between leverage or default risk and expected stock returns. In the context of the model of George and Hwang [2009. Journal of Financial Economics 96, 56–79], we correct the contention that variation in bankruptcy costs across firms is sufficient. Variation in asset risk parameters can lead to the desired relation, but may not when also controlling for variation in book-to-market ratios. A simple parameterization of cross-sectional heterogeneity in risk and profitability implies a negative association of expected return with leverage and distress risk and a positive association with book-to-market.     

The Post‐Cost Profitability of Momentum Trading Strategies: Further Evidence from the UK

This paper examines the post‐cost profitability of momentum trading strategies in the UK over the period 1988–2003 and provides direct evidence on stock concentration, turnover and trading cost associated with the strategy. We find that after factoring out transaction costs the profitability of the momentum strategy disappears for shorter horizons but remains for longer horizons. Indeed, for ranking and holding periods up to 6‐months, profitable momentum returns would not be available to most average investors as the cost of implementation outweighs the possible returns. However, we find post‐cost profitability for ranking and/or holding periods beyond 6 months as portfolio turnover and its associated cost reduces. We find similar results for a sub‐sample of relatively large and liquid stocks.     

Exchange‐Traded Fund Introductions and Closed‐End Fund Discounts and Volume

Exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), like closed‐end funds (CEFs), are managed portfolios traded like individual stocks. We hypothesize that the introduction of an ETF in an asset class similar to an existing CEF results in a substitution effect that reduces the value of the CEF's shares relative to that of its underlying assets. Our event studies show that upon the introduction of a similar ETF, CEF discounts widen significantly and relative volume declines significantly. Single‐equation and systems estimation models show that the widening in discounts and reduction in volume are related to returns‐based measures of the substitutability of ETFs for CEFs.     

Strategic Interactions and Portfolio Choice in Money Management: Theory and Evidence

I study portfolio choice of strategic fund managers in the presence of a peer‐based underperformance penalty. While the penalty generates herding behavior, correlated trading among managers is exacerbated when a strategic setting is considered. The equilibrium portfolios are driven by the least restricted manager, who may vary according to the realization of returns. I compare model predictions to evidence from the Colombian pension fund management industry, where six asset managers are in charge of portfolio allocation for the mandatory contributions of the working population. These managers are subject to a peer‐based underperformance penalty, which is known as the minimum return guarantee (MRG). I study trading behavior by managers before and after a change in the strictness of the MRG in June 2007. The evidence suggests that a tighter MRG results in more trading in the direction of peers, a behavior that is more pronounced for underperforming managers. I show that these findings are consistent with the qualitative and quantitative predictions of the theoretical model.     

Style investing,comovement and return predictability

Barberis and Shleifer (2003) argue that style investing generates momentum and reversals in style and individual asset returns, as well as comovement between individual assets and their styles. Consistent with these predictions, in some specifications, past style returns help explain future stock returns after controlling for size, book-to-market and past stock returns. We also use comovement to identify style investing and assess its impact on momentum. High comovement momentum portfolios have significantly higher future returns than low comovement momentum portfolios. Overall, our results suggest that style investing plays a role in the predictability of asset returns.