CANADIAN FARM INCOME SAFETY NETS AND U.S. COUNTERVAIL LAW

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors explaining U.S. countervail action. Factors that indicate changes in the political economic environment are incorporated into a logit model to explain the propensity to initiate a countervail suit. These factors, augmented by variables representing foreign subsidy specificity, are used in a logit model to explain the propensity to levy a countervail duty, once a suit is initiated. Evidence indicates that factors that would lead to political lobbying are significant in the initiation of a countervail suit. However, these variables are not significant in explaining the propensity to actually levy a duty; rather, the analysis finds that subsidy specificity criteria are the significant variables.     

FAMILY SAFETY NETS AND ECONOMIC TRANSITION: A STUDY OF WORKER HOUSEHOLDS IN POLAND

Can Eastern European families most severely impoverished during the transition to capitalism rely on private family safety nets? This question is likely critical for the transition's success, but little is known about family networks in Eastern Europe. We analyze newly available Polish household surveys, conducted both before and after Poland's economic transition, which measure private inter-household transfers. Such transfers are large and widespread in Poland, and in many ways appear to function like means-tested public transfers. They flow from high to low-income households and are targeted to young couples, families with many children and those experiencing illness. Private transfer patterns also suggest that they are responsive to liquidity constraints. Our results from 1987 data indicate that private transfers could fill a non-trivial portion of the income gap left by unemployment. However, we also find evidence from 1992 data suggesting that family networks weakened somewhat after the transition.     

金融安全网:基于信息空间理论的分析

在美国新金融改革法案颁布以及世界各国正着手进行金融监管体系重塑的背景下,针对金融安全网信息机制的构建,本文运用信息空间理论分析框架,结合复杂性学科的相关内容,分析了信息空间理论与金融安全网之间的适用性,探讨了构建金融安全网宏观信息空间、中观信息空间和微观信息空间与金融安全网适应能力、吸收能力、决策能力以及防护能力之间的关系,阐述了金融安全网信息机制的有效性及其对预防和管理银行危机的直接影响。     

金融包容：新型危机背景下金融地理学视阈的新拓展

新型危机背景下,金融空间结构由于路径依赖而呈现的刚性开始松动,金融包容成为实现社会公平、协调、增长、共赢的必需手段。它是金融排斥理念的拓展与深化,也是动态、多层次、复合维度理念,不仅包括微观供求主体的包容,也涵盖了区域层面的包容共生,即各区域经济、金融、社会的协调、城乡金融协调以及区际金融协调。影响金融包容的因素包括需求、供给与社会三个方面,其作用渠道与强度随国别、文化、历史、经济、社会的不同而有所差异,深度包容比宽度包容更为重要,不能将其简单理解为金融普惠。包容的精髓在于充分信息下所有参与主体的机会均等、自主选择与互利共赢。     

金融中心形成和金融人才聚集

金融人才聚集是金融中心形成的必要条件。首先,本文提出了金融人才的二元分布规律,即金融人才的聚集和分散规律。然后,本文从金融人才的数量、占就业人员的比重、空间聚集度和人才密度等角度,对世界和我国的主要金融中心的金融人才分布特点进行了分析。最后,从人才的角度分析,上海、北京和深圳建设国际金融中心,成都、西安和武汉建设区域金融中心,杭州建设特色金融中心的条件,并提出相关建议。     

金融能力、金融决策与贫困

本文利用2013年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据,通过因子分析法构建居民金融能力指数,运用Probit模型、工具变量法和中介效应模型实证分析了金融能力对贫困的影响以及金融能力、金融决策与贫困之间的作用机理。研究发现：（1）无论是绝对贫困还是相对贫困,金融能力能够显著抑制贫困的发生,且城镇地区相较农村地区更明显。（2）金融能力对贫困的影响既存在“抑制效应”,也存在“偏离效应”,两者之间呈现正“U”型关系。（3）经中介效应模型计算可知,在“抑制效应”下,金融能力可以通过改善金融决策来缓解居民贫困状况。具体而言,在三种不同的贫困状况衡量方式下,金融决策的中介效应占比分别为2542%,2296%和2160%。     

PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN THE AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL SERVICE INDUSTRY

This paper looks at the ability of a relatively new technique, a non-linear extension of the Granger thick model concept, hybrid ANN's, to predict failure of financial service firms in Australia. These models are compared with traditional statistical techniques and conventional ANN models. The results suggest that hybrid neural networks outperform all other models in predicting failure for up to two years prior to the event. This suggests that for researchers, policymakers and others interested in early warning systems, hybrid network may be a useful tool for predicting firm failure.     

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION AND FINANCIAL INNOVATION IN A CHARACTERISTICS FRAMEWORK

This paper shows that the characteristics model provides a unifying framework for analysing both financial intermediation and the process of financial innovation. The role of the financial intermediary is to buy-in the primary liabilities of the firm, unbundle and repackage the characteristics contained in them and issue a set of ultimate assets to households. Assets exist because the balance between the supply of and demand for asset characteristics indicates an interior equilibrium. Financial innovations arise whenever changes in supply and demand induce movements from a corner solution to the interior. A number of existing explanations of financial innovation can be expressed using this framework.     

银行理财的那些事

提及理财,普通人能想到的无外乎就是两点：一是投资,二是赚钱。实际上,理财的范围很广,理财是理一生的财,也即个人一生的现金流量与风险管理。与余额宝、理财通等互联网理财产品日渐走低的收益率不同,收益率不断上涨的银行理财产品似乎更具吸引力,本期《新经济》就将告诉你与银行理财相关的几件事。     

金融中心和金融中心体系识别方法

金融中心和金融中心体系的识别是金融地理学研究的难点,也是金融地理学持续研究的重要内容.传统识别方法采用规模指标、层次指标,或者规模和层次相结合的综合指标.由于自身的局限性加之中国区域发展条件复杂、区域差距大,传统指标在用于中国实践时不能准确揭示金融中心的范围和层次.对不同金融部门跨区域配置资金模式的分析可以定性确认金融中心的范围和层级,是对传统识别方法的补充.     

ARE FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICIES EFFECTIVE IN DEEPENING THE MALAYSIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM?

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the effects of financial sector policies on development of the financial system in Malaysia over the period 1959–2005. The technique of principal component analysis is used to construct a summary measure of interest rate policies in order to account for the joint influence of various interest rate controls imposed on the Malaysian financial system. The results show that economic development, interest rate controls, and capital liquidity requirements positively affect the level of financial development. However, greater trade openness, higher statutory reserve requirements, and the presence of directed credit programs appear to be harmful for development of the Malaysian financial system. The results provide some support to the argument that some form of financial restraints may help promote financial development. (JEL E44, E58, O16, O53)     

论金融危机中财政救助的成本与收益

作为应对国际金融危机的主要力量,财政救助是促进全球经济企稳回升的关键,但与此同时也会带来财政赤字加重、道德风险上升等潜在成本。本文认为,政府在关注财政救助收益的同时,更要关注其风险及成本,以实现财政救助效用的最大化。     

FINANCIAL RISK AND UNEMPLOYMENT

There is a strong correlation between corporate interest rates, their spreads relative to Treasuries, and the unemployment rate. We model how corporate interest rates affect equilibrium unemployment and vacancies, in a Diamond–Mortesen–Pissarides search and matching model. Our simple model permits the exploration of U.S. business cycle statistics through the lens of financial shocks. We calibrate the model using U.S. data without targeting business cycle statistics. Volatility in the corporate interest rate can explain a quantitatively meaningful portion of the labor market. Data on corporate firms support the hypothesis that firms facing more volatile financial conditions have more volatile employment.