On the Use of Intra-Industry Information to Improve Earnings Forecasts

We investigate whether earnings forecasts are improved by earlier earnings disclosures by firms in the same industry. We find improvements for time series forecasts, but not for analysts' forecasts. Considering prior earnings announcements reduces correlations between forecast errors and security price reactions to earnings announcements, even when incorporating these announcements improves forecast accuracy. Our explanation for this anomaly, which is supported by additional analysis, is that intra-industry information facilitates predicting transitory, rather than permanent, earnings components. The question of whether information transfers improve earnings forecasts provides the context for the analysis, but the primary contribution is the documentation of intra-industry information transfers in a setting other than capital markets.     

Intangible Assets, Information Complexity, and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

Abstract:   We examine the relation between analysts' earnings forecasts and firms' intangible assets, including technology‐based intangibles, brand names, and recognized intangibles. We predict that high information complexity of intangible assets increases the difficulty for analysts to assimilate information and increases analysts' forecast error of intangibles‐intensive firms. We find a positive association between analysts' forecast error and the firm's intangible intensity that deviates from the industry norm. We also find that analysts' forecast errors are greater for firms with diverse and innovative technologies. In contrast, analysts' forecast errors are smaller for biotech/pharmaceutical and medical equipment firms that are subject to intangibles‐related regulation.     

签字注册会计师强制轮换制度提高了审计质量吗?——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

本文分析了我国签字注册会计师强制轮换制度对审计质量的影响,并检验了影响制度效果的主要因素。研究发现,强制轮换制度总体上没有显著提高审计质量,其原因一是强制轮换制度执行中存在规避行为,导致审计师变更频繁和过渡审计师的出现,其对应审计质量较低;二是强制轮换制度实施后,新任审计师的平均专业胜任能力下降,导致审计质量下降。而具有原客户审计经验的审计师在被强制轮换后重新审计该客户的审计质量较高,这能在一定程度上抑制上市公司审计质量的整体下滑。本文的发现对进一步完善签字注册会计师强制轮换制度有较好的参考意义。     

The Value Relevance of Management Forecasts and Their Impact on Analysts' Forecasts: Empirical Evidence From Japan

A major financial disclosure feature in Japan is that stock exchanges require firms to provide next year's earnings forecasts. This study investigates the value relevance of Japanese management earnings forecasts and their impact on analysts' earnings forecasts. First, the value relevance of management forecasts is investigated using a valuation framework provided by Ohlson (2001 ), in which firm value is expressed as a function of book value, current earnings and next year's expected earnings. The analysis yields that of the three accounting variables examined, management forecasts have the highest correlation and incremental explanatory power with stock price.
Next, the impact of management forecasts on analysts' forecasts is examined. The results show that more than 90% of changes in analysts' forecasts are explained by management forecasts alone. Further analysis reveals that the heavy dependence of financial analysts on management forecasts in formulating their own forecasts may partially be attributed to the relatively high accuracy of management forecasts. At the same time, financial analysts also somewhat modify management forecasts when certain financial factors indicate that the credibility of management forecasts is in doubt.
Overall, this study presents empirical evidence that Japanese management forecasts provide useful information for the market and have a significant influence on analysts' forecasts.     

Industry Information Transfers: The Effect of Information Environment

This study extends the information environment theory of Atiase (1985) that suggests an inverse relation between the information available about a firm and the security price reaction to its release of earnings. Non-announcing firms' security price responses are found to be inversely related to their market value but directly related to the number of peer firm articles appearing in the Wall Street Journal and the historical earnings correlations within their industry. The results suggest that information environment affects the security price relevance of a firm's own and its peer firms' earnings.     

Abnormal Returns from Predicting Earnings Thresholds

This study examines the performance of a trading strategy based on the prediction of firms concurrently reporting a positive earnings change and meeting analysts’ earnings forecasts. The evidence indicates that a model predicting both earnings thresholds concurrently can yield excess returns that are incremental to predicting only one earnings threshold. Further, I find that the prediction of forecast errors is relatively more important than predicting earnings changes as the incremental benefit from predicting earnings changes concurrently with forecast errors is small relative to a model that predicts only forecast errors. The results hold while controlling for various risk factors and known anomalies.     

Do banks care about analysts' forecasts when designing loan contracts?

We investigate whether banks rely on the information content in equity analysts’ annual earnings forecasts when assessing the risk of potential borrowers. While a long literature finds that analysts provide useful information to market participants, it is not clear that banks, which have access to privileged information, would benefit from publicly available analysts’ forecasts. If, however, banks do rely on this information, then more precise private information in earnings forecasts may inform banks. We focus our analysis on the requirement of collateral because it is a direct measure of default risk, whereas other loan terms such as interest spread and debt covenants can also protect against other risks, such as asset misappropriation. The direct link between collateral and default risk allows us to examine whether information from analysts is relevant to banks when designing loan contracts. Consistent with our predictions, we find that higher precision of the private information in analysts’ earnings forecasts is associated with a lower likelihood of requiring collateral, and this effect is larger when a borrower does not have a prior relationship with the lender or their accounting or credit quality is low. We also find that this association disappears after the implementation of Regulation FD, consistent with this regulation reducing analysts’ access to private information.     

商誉减值与公司业绩预告行为

近年来,商誉减值引发的公司业绩“暴雷”风险成为资本市场的热点话题。本文基于中国A股上市公司数据,考察了商誉减值对业绩预告行为的影响。研究发现,商誉减值提高了公司自愿披露业绩预告积极性,但降低了业绩预告精确度和准确度。机制检验表明,商誉减值通过增加双重代理成本降低业绩预告精确度和准确度;坏消息、卖空机制下,发生商誉减值的公司通过降低业绩预告精确度和准确度以维稳股价的动机更强。进一步分析表明,商誉减值降低业绩预告精确度、准确度的作用在内部控制质量较低、分析师跟踪较少的公司中更显著,在自愿披露公司与强制披露公司之间不存在显著差异。本文结论对政策制定中防范商誉减值风险、完善上市公司信息披露制度提供了实证证据。     

Joint Audits: Does the Allocation of Audit Work Affect Audit Quality and Audit Fees?

Audit quality and cost consequences of joint audits have been continually discussed, especially since the publication of the European Commission’s Green Paper in 2010. We provide new empirical evidence for the French audit market. We show that a more balanced audit work allocation between the engaged audit firms reduces the audit quality and enhances the audit fees as compared to an unbalanced work allocation. We measure the quality effects following the concept of abnormal accruals and the concept of cosmetic earnings management. As unbalanced joint audits have parallels to single audits, our results have interest to those debating the benefits and costs of joint audits as compared to single audits.     

Evaluating the information content of earnings forecasts

This study develops a framework to compare the ability of alternative earnings forecast approaches to capture the market expectation of future earnings. Given prior evidence of analysts’ systematic optimistic bias, we decompose earnings surprises into analysts’ earnings surprises and adjustments based on alternative forecasting models. An equal market response to these two components indicates that the associated earnings forecast is a sufficient estimate of the market expectation of future earnings. To apply our framework, we examine four recent regression-based earnings forecasting models, alongside a simple earnings-based random walk model and analysts’ forecasts. Using the earnings forecasts of the model that satisfies our sufficiency condition, we identify a set of stocks for which the market is unduly pessimistic about future earnings. The investment strategy of buying and holding these stocks generates statistically signi?cant abnormal returns. We offer an explanation as to why this and similar strategies might be successful.     

Can Information Transparency Improve Earnings Quality Attributes? Evidence from an Enhanced Disclosure Regime in Taiwan

Investors demand timely and accurate corporate disclosures in order to comprehend the governance and performance of a firm; they also rely on quality earnings information to assess the intrinsic value of a company. This study links the two using a Taiwan sample because the government of Taiwan has just performed a market-wide corporate-transparency rating. We find significant improvement on four accounting-based earnings-quality attributes, including accrual quality, earnings persistence, predictability, and smoothness. Further, there is a statistically reliable association between the level of information transparency and each of these earnings attributes, implying that a disclosure mechanism design can enhance management accountability in financial reporting.     

盈余管理、信息风险与审计意见

盈余管理和信息风险是影响审计意见的两个重要因素。已有研究主要关注当期盈余管理与审计意见的关系,少有关注信息风险对审计意见的影响。本文运用我国上市公司的数据,同时研究盈余管理和信息风险对审计意见的影响。检验结果表明,公司的信息风险与审计师出具非标意见概率显著正相关,而当期盈余管理与审计师出具非标意见的概率无显著相关性。这表明,审计师出具审计意见时主要考虑信息风险,而没有证据表明审计师出具审计意见时考虑了盈余管理。本文的研究结论深化了已有审计意见和审计质量决定因素方面的研究。