IS THERE A ROLE FOR TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS IF WE VIEW FIRMS AS COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS?

This article assesses the usefulness of transaction cost economics when we view economic organizations, such as firms, as complex adaptive systems. Modern complexity science is radically different in orientation to neoclassical economics, which deals with decision making in contexts that are presumed to be simple and, therefore, disconnected from complex reality. However, transaction cost economics can be related to aspects of modern complexity science: bounded rationality, opportunism, and asset specificity are all associated with behavioral complexity. Furthermore, the emphasis of transaction cost economics on hierarchy and organizational rather than technological considerations is also consistent with complexity science. Drawing on literature in psychological economics, this article synthesizes transaction cost economics with aspects of complexity science in a manner that offers a new research agenda, not only in the context of the organization of production but in economics generally. Such theoretical developments are vital if policy makers are to have at their disposal analytical perspectives that are coherent and applicable in complex historical settings.     

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY: WHAT WE KNOW AND WHAT WE DON'T KNOW*

In this article, I examine the current state of knowledge about optimal monetary policy. I distinguish between two literatures, basic and applied. The basic literature is explicit about the frictions that generate a positive value for money and make it socially beneficial. The applied literature is not. I describe the recent lessons about monetary policy that we have learned from each literature and discuss how the two distinct approaches may be usefully combined.     

中国的城乡移民-我们知道什么,我们还应该知道什么?

该文综述了中国农村到城镇迁移问题的经济学研究.综述主要的关注点有四个:(1)城乡分割和移民的演化;(2)对于农村到城镇迁移的解释;(3)迁移与劳动力市场演变的互动关系,特别是劳动力市场的分割、劳动力市场的柔性和工资差距;(4)今后进一步研究的方向.     

中国的城乡移民-我们知道什么,我们还应该知道什么?

该文综述了中国农村到城镇迁移问题的经济学研究.综述主要的关注点有四个:(1)城乡分割和移民的演化;(2)对于农村到城镇迁移的解释;(3)迁移与劳动力市场演变的互动关系,特别是劳动力市场的分割、劳动力市场的柔性和工资差距;(4)今后进一步研究的方向.     

ARE WE ALL SUPPLY-SIDERS NOW?

The term "supply-sider" has come to mean someone who believes that an x percent cut in tax rates walkthrough its effect on the incentive to work, to save and invest, and to avoid and evade taxes–lead to much less than an x percent cut, and perhaps even to an increase, in tax revenues. Not all economists are supply-siders in this sense, but many more are now than were during the 1970s. The reason for the switch is the evidence that has accumulated on the incentive effects of taxes. Many studies have shown that cuts in tax rates for the highest-income taxpayers actually have increased the government's revenue. A key reason for this effect is not a large elasticity of labor supply but rather a large elasticity of tax avoidance with respect to tax rates. The most important policy implication of this evidence is that the government cannot increase its revenue substantially without taxing the non-rich.     

对我国产业安全若干问题的看法

从宏观整体开放水平、产业竞争力、外资并购以及产业升级等四个方面分析,我国产业安全面临严峻的形势,我国在解决产业安全问题的过程中必须注重六个方面的问题。     

论我国电子商务立法的选择

在对国际电子商务立法进行分析的基础上,提出了我国电子商务立法的目的、原则、程序,并具体设计了我国电子商务法的基本框架。     

我国双星式城市研究

双星式城市是城市空间分布的一种类型。本文阐述了我国双星式城市的基本特点和成长机制,针对一些典型城市进行了具体分析,随后提出了优化调整的对策措施。     

我国公共财政制度的完善

消费与投资增长不协调是我国当前宏观经济中的重要问题,这个问题已成为我国经济社会协调发展的严重障碍,公共财政制度不完善是这一问题产生的财政体制根源。所以, 加快公共财政体制建设就成了解决这一问题的根本途径。就我国当前来说,公共财政应该加大对义务教育、公共卫生、社会保障、"三农"问题、收入分配和就业问题的支持力度和调控力度。     

预期对我国消费信贷的影响

预期是个人对未来经济发展情形的一种判断,它对我国消费信贷有着重要的影响。虽然我国近年来为了扩大内需,将消费信贷作为一项重要措施推出,但由于受居民预期因素的作用和影响而发展缓慢。因此,政府应从多方面制定政策以解决预期对我国消费信贷的干扰。     

DIVIDED WE STAND,UNITED WE FALL: THE HUME‐NORTH‐JONES MECHANISM FOR THE RISE OF EUROPE*

The “great divergence” between Europe and the rest of the world occurred relatively recently. What enabled Europe, with all its laggards, to dominate the previously successful Eastern economies? This article emphasizes one important mechanism, highlighting the contrast between the European states system and Eastern empires. Political competition for a mobile tax base in a states system forces rulers to provide relatively more secure property rights. By effectively limiting the “exit” options of the ruled, an empire rewards its ruler with a captive tax base that can be subjected to higher levels of expropriation. As a result, the states system encourages faster capital accumulation and growth.     

HOW WELL DO WE MEASURE EMPLOYER-PROVIDED HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE?

Using data from the Current Population Survey and a new matched survey of employers and employees, this paper investigates error in the measurement of employer-provided health insurance. The often-used March CPS gives lower coverage estimates than the April/May CPS, which focuses on employer-provided coverage. In addition, individuals who are in both the March CPS and April/May CPS often give inconsistent responses on their health insurance status, perhaps due to differences in the wording of the health insurance questions. A new survey shows that workers tend to report higher rates of coverage than do firms and that many individuals also disagree with their employers about their coverage. The differences in the firm and worker reports of coverage are uncorrelated with standard worker and firm characteristics, suggesting classical measurement error that does not bias the parameters of models explaining health coverage. When health insurance is used as an explanatory variable, however, measurement error results in significant bias toward zero.     

我国上市公司选择可转换债券的融资偏好研究

对2001—2004年相关上市公司的实证研究结果表明:公司规模、资产负债率、净资产收益率、流通股比重和每股净资产值五个变量,对公司是否选择可转换债券融资有显著性影响,其中净资产收益率和资产负债率的影响是负向的,其他三个变量的影响是正向的,这一结果表明我国上市公司对可转换债券的选择基本上是理性的。     

基于仿真交易的股指期货定价效果研究

本文通过研究我国仿真股指期货和沪深300指数之间的关系,发现仿真股指期货价格与现货价格在一定滞后阶数上构成单向的Granger因果关系:期货价格在统计意义上是现货价格的Granger原因,反之并不成立.另一方面,尽管现货与期货价格之间的基差不稳定,但通过计算现货与期货收益率基差发现其存在稳定的关系,而且收益率基差的异常值有助于预测未来沪深300指数和股指期货的相对趋势.     

HOW LARGE A FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT CAN WE SUSTAIN?

Governments may be unable to sustain large budget deficits indefinitely. Investors may impose limits on the amount of government debt—relative to gross national product (GNP)—they are willing to hold and thus limit the size of the deficit a government can sustain. The size of sustainable nominal deficits, then, would depend on the growth rate of nominal GNP. Reasonable assumptions regarding the GNP growth rate imply that the federal government can main tain its debt/GNP ratio at historically typical levels if it runs deficits of $175 billion in the near term and even larger amounts during future years.     

入世与我国企业资本运营

入世将引发我国企业第三次资本运营高潮,并将对我国资本市场、对外投资、资本运营中介组织以及企业资本运营行为产生重大影响。由这些影响和我国企业资本运营的现状所决定,入世后我国企业资本运营将呈现出一些新特点。