INCENTIVES AND THE COST OF FIRING IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LABOR MARKET MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LAYOFFS*

I study the effects of firing costs in an equilibrium model of the labor market with moral hazard. Layoff is an incentive device, modeled as termination of the optimal long‐term contract. When the economy’s stock of firms is fixed, firing costs could reduce layoffs and increase worker welfare. In the long run when firms are free to enter and exit the market, firing costs generate not only lower employment, longer unemployment durations, and lower aggregate output, but also lower welfare for both employed workers and new labor market entrants.     

EXISTENCE OF STATIONARY EQUILIBRIUM IN AN INCOMPLETE-MARKET MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LABOR SUPPLY

In this article, I first study an income fluctuation problem with endogenous labor supply. Let β be the agent's time discount factor and be the constant gross rate of return on assets. For , I show that the agent's wealth either approaches infinity almost surely or converges to a finite level almost surely. For , I prove the existence, uniqueness, and stability of the stationary distribution of state variables. I then show the existence of the stationary general equilibrium in an incomplete-market model with endogenous labor supply.     

SOCIAL INVESTMENT AND YOUTH LABOR MARKET PARTICIPATION

In this paper, we first rely on small area techniques to derive from EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU‐SILC) survey new indicators of compensatory and social‐investment policies at regional level. While compensatory policies have mainly the goal of protecting individuals from “old” risks (e.g., old‐age), investment‐related social policies tend to focus more on “new social risks” (e.g., skill deficits). We rely on these new indicators to perform a data‐driven structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis to investigate the causal relationships between youth labor market outcomes and these two types of spending. Our results support the view that social‐investment policies are effective for tackling new social challenges. (JEL C18, C54, E02)     

LABOR MARKET EQUILIBRIUM WITH REHIRING

Consistent with the empirical evidence, this article analyzes a labor market in which separations are not permanent and reactivated firms prefer to rehire former employees instead of seek new ones. Workers engage in job search due to the uncertain prospects of rehiring. If firms can commit to wages contingent on rehiring, they backload wages to provide incentives for workers to reduce their unobservable search effort. Under risk aversion and incomplete markets, if productivity at reactivation is sufficiently high, the tension between wage backloading and consumption smoothing leads to excessive search in equilibrium.     

非均衡劳动力市场的真实经济周期模型

真实经济周期(RBC)模型通常以市场出清的一般均衡为其理论框架。这使我们无法有效的将这一跨时期的动态优化模型应用于现实的经济环境,因为现实的世界里普遍存在着各种非均衡的状况。本文将劳动的供给和需求分离开来,从而允许非均衡的劳动力市场存在。利用美国的数据,我们对该模型进行了实证检验,结果表明该模型能够更好的解释劳动力市场的波动及消费和就业间的关系,同时说明该模型在数据的拟和上比标准RBC模型更好。     

劳动力市场分割的可持续性研究

本文借鉴经济学中的内生技术进步理论,从历史变迁的视角对劳动力市场分割的可持续性进行了研究。研究结果表明,我国劳动力市场分割持续存在的原因在于我国劳动力市场分割存在一个局部正反馈的循环系统。我国劳动力市场分割导致劳动密集型产业快速发展,而劳动密集型产业的快速发展又导致我国人力资本收益的减小和人力资本投资量的不足,从而进一步加剧劳动力市场分割程度。因此,退出这个循环是缓解我国劳动力市场分割程度的关键。     

EFFICIENCY AND LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS IN A MODEL OF LABOR SELECTION

This article characterizes efficient labor market allocations in a labor selection model. The model's crucial aspect is cross‐sectional heterogeneity for new job contacts, which leads to an endogenous selection threshold for new hires. With cross‐sectional dispersion calibrated to microeconomic data, 40% of empirically relevant fluctuations in the job‐finding rate arise, which contrasts with results in an efficient search and matching economy. The efficient selection model's results hold in partial and general equilibrium, as well as with sequential search.     

THE LABOR MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF TEENAGE CHILDBEARING

This paper provides estimates of the impact of an unanticipated child during adolescence on labor supply and earnings using data for women who gave birth between 1976 and 2015 drawn from 1990 and 2000 censuses and the American Community Surveys. Twins at first birth are used as an instrument to avoid the problems of fertility endogeneity. Estimates from our instrumental variable models indicate that the arrival of a second‐born twin had severe economic consequences for adolescent women over most of our data. (JEL J13, J31, J16)     

A MARKET WITH A SOCIAL CONSUMPTION EXTERNALITY*

We model a spatial market in which the utility of each consumer is affected by the consumers who buy precisely the same product. The marginal contribution of consumers x's purchase on consumer y depends on |x–y|, which declines as |x–y| increases. Such modelling of preferences fits goods that signal a consumer's place in society—clothing styles, automobiles and jewellry are examples. For 2n + 1 firms we find the unique symmetric equilibrium and derive comparative statics on the optimal number of firms, the largest number of firms the market can support, and the behaviour of profits per firm as n increases.     

劳动分工取代自给自足的演化分析

劳动分工取代自给自足面临着两个主要挑战:分工的协调问题和自给自足策略的风险占优问题。进行制度分析和演化博弈分析后我们可以得出如下结论:分工的协调问题可以通过优胜劣汰的自然选择自动解决;自给自足的风险占优问题则要通过建立"城市"、"集市"等制度来解决。     

分工与农业组织化演进:基于间接定价理论模型的分析

本文在适当扩展间接定价理论模型基础上,运用它对改革开放以来中国农业组织化沿着集体经济→家庭经营→农业商业化→农业产业化→农民团队化的演进路线进行了统一的理论解释:这是改革开放提高交易效率,促进分工演化的结果,是农民对中间产品、最终产品及劳动的交易效率与风险进行综合比较后,选择剩余权利赖以实现的最优组织结构的结果。     

HETEROGENEITY IN A CURRENCY UNION WITH SOCIAL MARKET OBJECTIVES

In this paper, we explore whether heterogeneity among union members could threaten the stability of the European Monetary Union. The types of heterogeneity we consider are (1) asymmetries in the transmission of monetary and fiscal policies, and (2) differences in national preferences for price stability, output growth, and income redistribution. Our results show that the costs of membership can be significant for countries whose transmissions, structure, or preferences deviate from those underlying the common monetary policy. In part, these costs arise because monetary policy imposed by an independent central bank automatically constrains the use of fiscal policy by national governments.     

LABOR MARKET ASSIMILATION OF IMMIGRANTS: THE IMPORTANCE OF LANGUAGE SKILLS

The pending Immigration Reform and Control Act (Simpson-Mazzoli) would require current illegal aliens to demonstrate minimal proficiency in English or to enroll in an English language class to attain permanent-resident status. This paper examines the importance of English language skills in the assimilation of immigrants. Data on 1975 earnings for men from 11 language /ethnic groups are used. English skills are found to play an important role in determining the earnings of immigrant and minority-language men in the U.S. Costs of deficiencies in English are substantial for most immigrants—more than $1,000 per year for eight of the 11 groups.     

THE PARALLEL MARKET IN CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES

This paper presents some general-equilibrium models of the parallel market in centrally planned economies. The models are based on the hypotheses that private firms can operate more efficiently than bureaucratically-run state enterprises and that Soviet-type economies are characterized by price controls and quantitative allocations. The state's enforcement policy is explicitly modeled. Although the welfare implications of the parallel market for workers are ambiguous in general, under a variety of circumstances they turn out to be negative. For instance, responding to the shortage created by price controls, illegal firms divert resources from the official economy into the parallel market. The result is a higher price in the parallel market without any increase in the total supply of the good.     

经济发展、地区分工与地方贸易保护

本文运用新兴古典经济理论从分工演进和经济发展角度对地方贸易保护问题进行了系统的理论分析。在对经济发展的一般机制及其与地区分工相互关系进行论述的基础上,我们利用对引入交易费用的李嘉图模型的超边际分析来研究地方贸易保护行为。文章认为,中央政府打破和消除地方贸易保护目标的实现应当围绕引导地方政府特别是落后地区政府决策从短期向长期转变为中心而采取相应措施。     

THE DIVISION OF LABOR AND ROUNDABOUT PRODUCTION: ALLYN YOUNG REVISITED

Abstract.  This paper investigates Allyn Young's two important doctrines concerning the division of labor and roundabout production. First, apart from advancing the state of knowledge, the progressive division of labor that can occur within a given population encourages the adoption of more specialized, differentiated intermediate goods in the production process. Second, the level of division of labor and the extent of the market depend on each other. Using a general equilibrium model with increasing returns to specialization, economies of complementarity between intermediate goods, and transaction costs, we demonstrate that the level of division of labor and the number of intermediate goods increase concurrently as transaction conditions are improved.     

THE EFFECTS OF ENDOGENOUS MARKET ENTRY OF PHYSICIAN‐OWNED HOSPITALS ON MEDICARE EXPENDITURES: AN INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES APPROACH

This study examines the effect of physician‐owned hospitals (POHs) on Medicare per enrollee expenditures at the metropolitan area (MSA) level nationwide, spanning the 8‐year time period from 1998 to 2005. The study uses fixed effects panel data estimation with instrumental variables to account for the bias introduced by endogenous POH market entry (i.e., POHs may be more likely to open in high‐growth/high‐demand markets with high levels of Medicare per enrollee expenditures). After controlling for other variables that are likely to affect expenditures (especially the age and sex distribution of the MSA), we find no association between POH presence and Medicare expenditures per enrollee at the MSA level. The results are robust to changes in model specification, estimation technique, and definition of geographic market. These findings suggest that the “demand inducement” aspects of physician ownership of acute care hospitals (if any) have no meaningful impact on market‐level Medicare expenditures per enrollee. Current policies based on an assumption that POHs are associated with significant increases in total expenditures may need to be reassessed. (JEL I11, L10, C33)     

基于买方市场的劳工标准移植研究

市场的竞争促使越来越多发展中国家的企业成为劳工认证供应链的一部分。本文基于买方主导型市场结构,运用信息租模型分析劳工标准在中国移植状况。研究表明,高劳工标准的存在,是供应商追求信息租金和采购商追求真实剩余博弈的均衡;当供应商类型分布不满足单调风险率性质时,会出现低标准混同均衡,也是采购商借助买方市场势力极大化真实剩余的结果;当采购商风险偏好属于规避型时,最后均衡劳工标准较之风险中性时要高,同时买卖双方福利都会提高。