中国内地银行的外汇风险

本文实证研究使用资本市场法（Capital Market Approach）和14家中资上市银行的股价数据,发现银行规模和其外汇风险之间存在正相关关系。这可能反映了国内大型中资银行更多的外汇操作和交易头寸,以及因人民币汇率变动、对客户风险发生变化所带来的大量间接影响。虽然内地银行对国际市场的参与程度仍低于香港同业,但实证研究结果显示国有商业银行和股份制商业银行的平均外汇风险高于香港银行,而且大银行的外汇风险为负数的情况非常普遍,这意味着人民币升值将降低这些银行的股票价值,从而损害银行业表现。由于股价下跌一般反映违约风险上升,因此应密切监测人民币升值情况对内地银行违约风险可能发生的影响。     

The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Japanese Multinational Corporations

We find that about 25 percent of our sample of 171 Japanese multinationals' stock returns experienced economically significant positive exposure effects for the period January 1979 to December 1993. The extent to which a firm is exposed to exchange-rate fluctuations can be explained by the level of its export ratio and by variables that are proxies for its hedging needs. Highly leveraged firms, or firms with low liquidity, tend to have smaller exposures. Foreign exposure is found to increase with firm size. We also find that keiretsu multinationals are more exposed to exchange-rate risk than nonkeiretsu firms.     

涉外企业汇率风险管理的投资组合视角

Harry．Markowitz于1952年提出的投资组合理论是一个开创性成果，到目前为止对该理论的应用主要集中在资本市场最优证券组合构造上，本文作者将该理论引入涉外企业汇率风险管理中，提出了涉外企业汇率风险管理的投资组合视角。     

企业外汇风险暴露观测的必要性与方法分析

外汇风险暴露是企业日常经营中可能面临的、可对企业价值产生影响的风险之一.本文从企业外汇风险暴露管理的视角出发,在阐释企业外汇风险暴露相关研究文献的基础上,对我国企业进行外汇风险暴露测度的必要性、方法及技术准备进行了分析,以便为企业进行外汇风险暴露监测与管理提供参考依据.     

非银行金融机构外汇管理研究初探

随着我国资本项目可兑换的不断推进,非银行金融机构外汇业务规模、需求日益增长,面对不同类型的非银行金融机构,外汇局应适时调整对其的管理方式、管理重点,并从有利于投融资便利化的角度考虑对其实施管理的制度设计,切实提高管理效率,服务涉外经济发展.     

基于现金流模型的我国旅游业外汇风险暴露研究

汇率变动导致的国际市场需求变化会引起旅游业的外汇风险暴露。通过构建基于需求的经营性外汇风险暴露模型（经营性现金流模型）和旅游业加权汇率指数（TTWI）,采用2005—2011年国内上市旅游公司的数据,对我国旅游公司的经营性现金流进行实证分析。研究发现,有很大比例旅游公司的经营性活动暴露于外汇风险之下,其外汇风险暴露形式呈现出非线性、非对称和滞后性的特征。旅游公司在管理外汇风险暴露时,可通过投资于外币资产或使用外币负债在总现金流上分散汇率风险。     

Financial Distress and Corporate Performance

This study finds that highly leveraged firms lose substantial market share to their more conservatively financed competitors in industry downturns. Specifically, firms in the top leverage decile in industries that experience output contractions see their sales decline by 26 percent more than do firms in the bottom leverage decile. A similar decline takes place in the market value of equity. These findings are consistent with the view that the indirect costs of financial distress are significant and positive. Consistent with the theory that firms with specialized products are especially vulnerable to financial distress, we find that highly leveraged firms that engage in research and development suffer the most in economically distressed periods. We also find that the adverse consequences of leverage are more pronounced in concentrated industries.     

Economic Distress, Financial Distress, and Dynamic Liquidation

Many firms emerging from a debt restructuring remain highly leveraged, continue to invest little, perform poorly, and often reenter financial distress. The existing literature interprets these findings as inefficiencies arising from coordination problems among many creditors or an inefficient design of bankruptcy law. In contrast, this paper emphasizes that creditors lack the information that is needed to make quick and correct liquidation decisions. It can explain the long-term nature of financial distress solely as the result of dynamic learning strategies of creditors and suggests that it may be an unavoidable byproduct of an efficient resolution of financial distress.     

全球新型金融危机与中国外汇储备管理的战略调整

本文针对美国次贷危机之后国际金融格局变化,提出全球新型金融危机的概念,阐明新型金融危机独有的特征,指出全球新型金融危机对中国外汇储备的影响。本文的分析显示,在全球新型金融危机背景下,中国外汇储备管理的战略应该向人民币国际化这一方向调整,尽管目前时机尚未成熟,但近年来相关方面的发展已经为人民币将来走向国际化奠定了有利的基础。文章对人民币国际化的实现路径进行了讨论。     

运用财务信息创新外汇检查案例研究

近年来,外汇管理出台了一系列简政放权的措施,给外汇检查工作提出了新的课题.本文通过对一起运用企业财务信息开展外汇检查的典型案例剖析,阐述如何深度挖掘财务信息,创新检查手段,提高外汇检查的精准性和有效性.     

非银行金融机构外汇业务监管探析

随着我国金融体制改革的不断深入,非银行金融机构得到了较大发展,但我国对非银行金融机构的外汇业务监管尚存在诸多问题.本文对如何完善非银行金融机构外汇业务监管进行了探讨.     

当代大学生财务困境与理财指引

文章剖析了当代大学生的财务现状和面临的财务困境,提出了大学阶段的理财目标和实施的建议。通过理性地、有计划地消费进行节流,通过创建多元化收入来源体系进行开源,从而保持健康的财务状况,并养成良好的理财习惯,最终提高财商。     

Structural Changes in Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates after theAsian Financial Crisis

Regime-shift models of daily returns are estimated for the foreign exchange rates of the Asian currencies that suffered from drastic devaluation during the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and the change points are detectedfor their volatility structures. Furthermore, how the persistence in the volatility of their exchange rates changed after the crisis is examined.     

Determinants of Financial Distress Costs

This paper provides international evidence on financial distress costs. To achieve this aim, we have developed a model where financial distress costs are determined, on the one hand, by making use of a more accurate indicator of the probability of financial distress and, on the other, by a set of variables that, according to financial theory, explain the magnitude of the costs borne by a firm in the case of financial distress. Our results reveal the relevance of our improved indicator of the probability of financial distress, since it positively affects financial distress costs in all the countries analyzed. Furthermore, since our model controls for the probability of financial distress, we can test the trade-off between the benefits and costs of debt. This allows us to verify that the benefits debt outweigh the costs. Our results also indicate that distress costs are negatively related to liquid assets; hence, their benefits more than offset their opportunity costs.     

跨境关联交易、外汇资金流动与外汇管理

跨境关联交易是涉及境内外关联方之间转移资源或义务的交易活动,它与外汇资金的流动密切相关,对一国的外汇管理具有不可忽视的影响。特别是在当前我国国际收支持续大幅双顺差、外汇储备不断增加的形势下,更需要高度关注跨境关联交易的各种风险。     

CDS and the Resolution of Financial Distress

The dramatic growth of Credit Default Swaps (CDS)—contracts that allow creditors to hedge their default exposure or take leveraged credit positions—threatens to complicate the resolution of financial distress in ways that existing reorganization methods and institutions have yet to adapt to. CDS contracts undermine a major premise that underlies current reorganization methods—namely, that the holder of legal rights has, and is motivated by, corresponding economic interests. Because hedging in the CDS markets immunizes creditors from the debtor's financial condition, they effectively separate their legal rights and economic interests. In this article, the authors discuss the challenges this separation poses for the resolution of distress both in and out of bankruptcy, and consider ways in which “on‐ground” realities may be reconciled with the legal structure that underlies the resolution of distress. At a minimum, disclosure of CDS positions in times of financial distress—along the lines of the disclosures presently required of equity investors under the Williams Act—are an essential first step toward a solution.     

全球金融危机对我国外汇储备的影响及对策建议研究

近年来,我国的外汇储备持续快速增加,但2007年8月美国次贷危机的爆发使我国外汇储备大幅缩水,随着国际金融危机蔓延全球,我国外汇储备管理面临着更加严峻的考验。从我国外汇储备投资策略以及风险控制两个方面考虑,我国应注重动态调整的短期化投资策略,实现外汇储备构成的多元化,使用多种工具防范风险,加强对投资标的的风险评价。     

外汇高顺差形势下外汇统计监测应对策略探讨

在当前外汇收支统计监测中，资本项目和经常项目外汇收支相互融合，离岸外汇收支混入在岸外汇收支，个人跨境外汇收支流动增势迅猛。要加强外汇统计监测，就要加快设计和构建外汇信息统计监测体系，加强统计监测，建立各类监测分析的快捷反应机制。     

保本型股票挂钩结构性外汇理财产品定价研究

内容本文首先针对单资产股票挂钩保本型结构性产品的期权特性,在一定的假设前提下,根据风险中性定价原理,借鉴Black-Scholes期权定价方法,对受汇率波动影响的外汇理财产品进行定价研究,并得出定价公式,然后运用中国民生银行非凡理财第四期的两年期产品为案例进行定价分析,结果表明该产品收益率设计是合理的。