Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Based on a new daily data set for 20 emerging markets over the period 1992–2006, we examine the reactions of foreign exchange markets, domestic stock markets, and sovereign bond spreads to central bank governor changes. We find that the replacement of a central bank governor negatively affects financial markets on the announcement day, which is in line with the hypothesis that newly appointed central bank governors suffer from a systematic credibility problem at the beginning of their tenure. We also find some evidence that changes in perceived central bank independence affect markets.     

Do Analysts Influence Corporate Financing and Investment?

We examine whether abnormal analyst coverage influences the external financing and investment decisions of the firm. Controlling for self-selection bias in analysts' excessive coverage, we find that firms with high (low) analyst coverage consistently engage in higher (lower) external financing than do their industry peers of similar size. Our evidence also demonstrates that firms with excessive analyst coverage overinvest and realize lower future returns than do firms with low analyst coverage. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that analysts favor the coverage of firms that have the potential to engage in profitable investment-banking business.     

Foreign Investment in Emerging Markets: International Diversification or Familiarity Bias?

This study empirically tests whether foreign investors take advantage of international diversification when investing in emerging Asian markets. Using the 2007–2008 financial crisis as identification, we find that firms with higher foreign ownership had better stock returns during the financial crisis. Moreover, the diversification effect exists in five out of the eight emerging markets and is stronger in markets with a lower dynamic conditional correlation with the global market index. We also find that foreign investors prefer firms with a lower international sales ratio. In conclusion, the evidence consistently suggests that foreign investors take advantage of diversification effects.     

Rumor Clarification and Stock Returns: Do Bull Markets Behave Differently from Bear Markets?

This paper analyzes the effects of official rumor clarification on Chinese stock returns under different market conditions. The results show that the average cumulative abnormal return after the clarification event is significantly positive in a bull market, and significantly negative in a bear market. The results are robust across various types of rumors, including rumors of mergers and acquisitions, asset restructuring, and positive changes in a firm's operations. Moreover, in both bull and bear markets, investors are unable to distinguish between rumors that prove true and those that prove false, or between strong and weak rumor denial. Furthermore, investors are also unable to adjust their strategies accordingly.     

What Do Investment Banks Truly Bring to the Table?

This paper investigates the role of intermediaries in the initial public offering (IPO) process. In the U.S. market, investment banks have traditionally been involved in a firm‐commitment or best‐efforts underwriting capacity. However, in the Australian IPO market, investment banks are increasingly being named in association with new issues in diverse roles such as issue managers, sponsoring brokers and corporate advisers. Using a sample of 468 IPOs over the 1996 to mid‐2006 period, we examine the influence of investment banks across these different engagements. In support of the signalling and information production roles of intermediaries, we find that issuers choosing high intermediary involvement are typically older, retain more capital, seek to raise larger amounts of capital and are without independent expert certification. We find mixed support for the certification hypothesis when testing for the effect of intermediary reputation on IPO issuer wealth loss. Further, the impact of intermediary involvement on underpricing is not significantly different for the different levels of intermediary involvement once issue characteristics have been accounted for. This is puzzling since these different roles by definition do not provide the same level of issue quality assurance.     

Do Markets Like Frozen Defined Benefit Pensions? An Event Study

An increasing number of North American companies are freezing or terminating their traditional defined benefit (DB) pension plans. In this article we document a positive announcement effect when a publicly traded company discloses that it has partially or fully frozen its DB plan and replaced it with—or enhanced—the 401(k) defined contribution (DC) plan. This positive risk‐adjusted return is greater for firms with higher beta and/or lower return on equity (ROE) prior to the freeze. In other words the positive impact is more pronounced for firms that are likely to face financial distress if they maintain their traditional pension plan and the associated long‐term promises.     

Why Do Foreign Firms Leave U.S. Equity Markets?

Foreign firms terminate their Securities and Exchange Commission registration in the aftermath of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) because they no longer require outside funds to finance growth opportunities. Deregistering firms’ insiders benefit from greater discretion to consume private benefits without having to raise higher cost funds. Foreign firms with more agency problems have worse stock‐price reactions to the adoption of Rule 12h‐6 in 2007, which made deregistration easier, than those firms more adversely affected by the compliance costs of SOX. Stock‐price reactions to deregistration announcements are negative, but less so under Rule 12h‐6, and more so for firms that raise fewer funds externally.     

Do US Corporate Governance Standards Effectively Discourage Risk in the Emerging Markets?

This study provides an examination of the effect of various corporate governance factors on the management of the risks inherent in business and the potential divergent impact of these factors on US firms and firms in emerging countries. In particular, the study scrutinises corporate governance and corporate risk‐taking behaviour across different political and socioeconomic environments. In a cross‐sectional time‐series setting, two‐step generalised least squares regression outcomes reveal that the impact of corporate governance on corporate risk taking demonstrates similar implications for US and emerging markets firms in several ways. Nonetheless, the findings also indicate that although some of the US governance standards are effective in the emerging markets, further strengthening of governance standards may be required. Specific governance aspects of the emerging markets, such as board and committee composition, are still lacking when compared to those of the US. Regardless of these differences, the outcomes reveal that those US governance standards adopted by the firms in the emerging markets strengthen governance structures and discourage corporate risk‐taking behaviour.     

Do Inventories Matter in Dealership Markets? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

Using London Stock Exchange data, we test the central implication of the canonical model of Ho and Stoll (1983) that relative inventory differences determine dealer behavior. We find that relative inventories explain which dealers obtain large trades and show that movements between best ask, best bid, and straddle are highly correlated with both standardized and relative inventory changes. We show that the mean reversion in inventories is highly nonlinear and increasing in inventory levels. We show that a key determinant of variations in interdealer trading is inventories and that interdealer trading plays an important role in managing large inventory positions.     

Do Financial Markets Care about Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure? Further Evidence from China

Corporations increasingly define their corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities as a part of their business. However, is this trend beneficial to investors? Based on an event study methodology and a sample of Chinese listed companies, we extend the literature on voluntary disclosure by exploring the role of CSR disclosure in reducing stock market information asymmetry, as proxied by share price volatility and liquidity. Our results show that the share price volatility after CSR disclosure is lower than before CSR disclosure; however, the trend is that it decreases first and then increases for three months following disclosure. Stock liquidity also significantly improves after CSR disclosure; however, it increases first and then decreases. Additionally, by dividing CSR disclosure into economic (hard) disclosure and generic (soft) disclosure, we find that the reduction in information asymmetry is higher for hard disclosure than soft disclosure, suggesting that although CSR disclosure does indeed have an impact on investors’ behaviour in China, an economic‐based disclosure contributes more substantially. Finally, to better understand the characteristics of the Chinese financial market, we also explore the role of marketisation with results that show that the effect in reducing information asymmetry is greater for companies located in a region with a higher degree of marketisation.     

Incomplete Markets and Security Prices: Do Asset-Pricing Puzzles Result from Aggregation Problems?

This paper investigates Euler equations involving security prices and household-level consumption data. It provides a useful complement to many existing studies of consumption-based asset pricing models that use a representative-agent framework, because the Euler equations under investigation hold even if markets are incomplete. It also provides a useful complement to simulation-based studies of market incompleteness. The empirical evidence indicates that the theory is rejected by the data along several dimensions. The results therefore indicate that some well-documented asset-pricing puzzles do not result from aggregation problems for the preferences under investigation.     

How Do Investment Ideas Spread through Social Interaction? Evidence from a Ponzi Scheme

A unique data set from a large Ponzi scheme allows me to study word‐of‐mouth diffusion of investment information. Investors could join the scheme only by invitation from an existing member, which allows me to observe how the idea spreads from one person to the next based on inviter‐invitee relationships. I find that the observed social network has a scale‐free connectivity structure, which significantly facilitates the diffusion of the investment idea and contributes to the growth and survival of the socially spreading Ponzi scheme. I further find that investors invest more if their inviter has comparatively higher age, education, and income.     

How Do Investment,Fundamentals, and Stock Prices Relate Around the World?

We assemble a novel data set of industry panel data for the corporate sector and the entire economy across a number of countries to explore the connection between investment and stock prices. The link is present in all samples, in both the aggregate and industry dimensions, and increases with stock market development. Fundamentals are less related to prices in underdeveloped markets but are similarly related to investment everywhere. Thus, the active informant interpretation does not seem to be the main force behind the stock market–investment relationship. In addition, industries that are more dependent on equity finance, and where investors are strongest, exhibit higher sensitivity to prices, especially in developed markets.     

What Moves Investment Growth?

We use accounting identities to decompose unexpected changes in investment growth into surprises to current cash‐flow growth and stock returns, and revisions of expectations about future cash‐flow growth and future discount rates. Using a vector autoregressive model we find that current cash‐flow surprises account for the largest element of the variance decomposition. Investment growth and current cash‐flow surprises are negatively correlated with news about future cash‐flow growth, which can be expected from persistent productivity shocks and decreasing returns to scale. We find little evidence of a discount rate channel for investment since return terms are small and have unintuitive signs.     

Do Public Banks Compete with Private Banks? Evidence from Concentrated Local Markets in Brazil

We measure the competitive effect of public banks in concentrated local markets in Brazil using branch location patterns. We employ variation in market size, number, and identity of competitors to determine how the conduct of private banks is affected by the entry of a public bank. We find that the market size needed to sustain a private bank branch is 35% larger if a private competitor is present and is not significantly affected by the presence of a public bank. These results suggest that the presence of a public bank does not affect conduct of private banks.     

Why Do Price Limits Exist in Stock Markets? A Manipulation‐Based Explanation

Numerous stock market regulators around the world impose daily price limits on individual stock price movements. We derive a simple model that shows that price limits may deter stock market manipulators. Based on our model's implications, we predict that regulators impose price limit rules for markets where the likelihood of manipulation is high. We present empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis. Our study is the first to formally propose a manipulation‐based rationale for the existence of price limits in stock markets.     

How Do Foreign Banks Affect Private Credit Flows? A Global and Emerging Markets Perspective

This study examines how foreign banks affect private credit flows in 135 nations, including 57 emerging markets for 1995–2013. Employing different econometric techniques, I find both higher share of foreign banks and foreign assets to significantly reduce credit flows. Such decline in credit is highest in nations with more than 50 percent foreign banks. The findings support the view that foreign banks face informational asymmetries that hamper them from lending to the more informationally opaque firms. The results call for strengthening accounting standards, disclosure rules in host markets and for prospective foreign banks to modify their credit risk evaluation methods.     

Do Voting Rights Affect Institutional Investment Decisions? Evidence from Dual‐Class Firms

We examine whether, and to what extent, shareholder voting rights affect institutional investment decisions. We find that institutional ownership in dual‐class firms is significantly lower than it is in single‐class firms after controlling for other determinants of institutional investment. Although institutions of all types hold fewer shares of dual‐class firms, this avoidance is more pronounced for long‐term investors with strong fiduciary responsibilities than for short‐term investors with weak fiduciary duties. Following the unification of dual‐class shares into a single class, institutional investors increase their shareholdings in the unifying firm. Overall, our results suggest that voting rights are an important determinant of institutional investment decisions.     

Do Investment Banks Have Incentives to Help Clients Make Value‐Creating Acquisitions?

Many have long suspected that investment banks, when advising corporate clients on potential acquisitions, have strong incentives just to “get the deal done” with little if any motive for urging clients to walk away from “bad” deals. The incentive to complete deals comes from compensation arrangements in which the bulk of the bankers' fees depend upon completion of the deals. Several earlier studies have provided support for this suspicion by reporting findings that show banks' market shares of advisory services depending mainly on two variables—their previous market shares and their deal completion rate—with little if any connection to the value created (or destroyed) for their clients' shareholders. In their recently published study, the authors revisit that relationship and reach a number of different conclusions: (1) advisors in acquisitions that create more value for clients are more likely to be chosen for future deals; (2) the changes in bankers' advisory market shares are strongly related to the value created for prior clients; and (3) the changes in banks' market values are positively correlated with the value created for their acquirer clients. In sum, the findings suggest that banks have significant market‐related incentives to advise their clients to pursue value‐creating acquisitions and to avoid deals likely to reduce their market values.     

How Do Extreme Global Shocks Affect Foreign Portfolio Investment? An Event Study for India

Foreign portfolio flows in and out of India are relevant for policymakers, and are often portrayed in the media as having a destabilizing effect on the domestic market. We use an event study approach to examine whether extreme global shocks trigger abnormal responses in foreign equity flows in and out of India, or abnormal responses in the Indian stock market. We do not find strong evidence of abnormal responses, even for the case of the global crisis of 2008.