Japan

Recent data suggest that economic growth remained uneven in Q4 2016. Monthly trade data imply the recovery in exports in Q3 has continued, with volumes up 4% on the year in October–November. The elevated number of housing starts suggests that residential investment remained firm. But offsetting these positives is the likelihood that business investment contracted for the second consecutive quarter, with the latest Tankan pointing to lower investment intentions amid weaker operating profits. Meanwhile, the recent deceleration in real earnings growth and subdued consumer confidence will have weighed on household spending.     

Japan

GDP likely contracted very sharply in Q2 2020 as household and business spending fell amid the state of emergency in effect from April to May. While we expect growth to bounce back in Q3 as activity and spending regain lost ground, the subsequent recovery will likely be very gradual as external demand stays weak and concerns over the virus linger. A renewed pick-up in infections and a return to restrictions on activity are downside risks. We forecast GDP to shrink 6% in 2020, before growing 2.8% in 2021.     

United States

Real GDP rose by 2.2% on an annualized basis in Q4 2014, as final sales advanced 2.4% while inventories imposed a 0.1 percentage point drag on growth. Consumer spending grew by 4.4% – the strongest since 2006 – contributing 3.0 percentage points to GDP growth. Business investment growth was revised slightly lower to a still solid 4.7% on downward revisions to equipment and intellectual property spending. Lastly, net foreign trade and government spending were drags on growth, subtracting 1.0 and 0.4 percentage points respectively. The economy grew by 2.4% in 2014 and we expect GDP growth will accelerate to 2.7% in 2015.…     

Japan

An acceleration in global trade helped to boost Japanese GDP growth to 1.7% in 2017. But an expected slowdown in demand from China in 2018 means that the contribution from external trade will be lower this year. And while we expect growth to continue to become more broad‐based, with investment playing a prominent role, given the recent increase in protectionist tensions, we have revised down our forecast for GDP growth in 2018 to 1.5% (from 1.7% three months ago). With an expected slowdown in construction and a planned consumption tax hike in 2019, we forecast that GDP growth will ease further to 0.9% next year. The short‐term outlook is influenced by the following factors:

• Export growth easing over 2018 : exports grew by 6.6% y/y in yen terms in January–February 2018 combined, down from 13% growth in Q4 2017. While the slowdown was less marked in volume terms, with real exports up 5.2% y/y and imports 7.8% higher (in January–February), we see a smaller contribution to growth from net trade in 2018 than in 2017, as external demand cools. The recent easing in export growth is in line with our expectations following last year's acceleration. Our baseline is for trade momentum to ease through 2018 as Chinese import demand moderates. While US protectionist measures threaten the outlook, we believe that the overall impact of the likely US tariffs will be limited, as Japanese trade continues to shift towards Asia.
• Solid investment growth to continue : we expect the momentum behind business investment to remain solid in 2018, with growth of 2.9% little changed from the 3% recorded in 2017. Overall investment will be supported by strong corporate profits, construction for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and high levels of confidence. Although dropping among large enterprises recently, overall business sentiment (and among SMEs) remains healthy and planned capex for fiscal year 2018 got off to a good start. Protectionism is also a downside risk to the investment outlook, but we believe that the actual impact on Japan will be limited.
• Weak wage growth to weigh on consumer demand : monthly data suggest that consumption has continued to edge higher this year. Moreover, rising employment in Q1 may provide additional upside momentum. However, despite a tight labour market, wage growth has been disappointing and we expect sluggish wage growth to constrain household demand and inflation going forward.

     

United States

Real GDP grew at a robust 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 2018, following even stronger 4.2% annualized growth in Q2. A strong gain in consumer spending was partially offset by the weakest increase in business investment in nearly two years and a third straight quarterly decline in residential investment. In a reversal from Q2, net trade exerted a 2.0 ppt drag in Q3. Real GDP is now trending at a very solid 3.0% y/y – the fastest pace since early 2015.     

Japan

Growth is set to struggle this year against a background of weak exports and a cyclical deceleration in capex spending. Weak demand from Asia (particularly China) and a slowdown in IT continue to cloud the external outlook. Sluggish industrial production and a loss of momentum in business investment will weigh on growth in 2019. We now expect real GDP to register a slight decline in Q1. For 2019, we forecast GDP to grow only 0.5% (down from 1.0% previously) before slowing to 0.4% in 2020 due to the consumption tax hike in Q4.     

United States

Annualised real GDP growth was revised to a staggering 5% in Q3 2014, the strongest reading since 2003, as final sales advanced 5% while inventories were neutral for growth. Consumer spending growth was revised up from 2.2% to 3.2%, mostly on stronger services spending, while business investment grew by 8.9%. Net foreign trade was a significant positive factor driving GDP growth in Q3, contributing 0.8 ppt, while government spending was revised up modestly to 4.4%. We expect the economy to have grown by around 3% in Q4, resulting in GDP growth of 2.4% in 2014 overall, with a 3.3% expansion forecast for 2015…     

United States

The US economy was slow out of the gates in 2018, recording GDP growth of only 2.0% on a quarter‐on‐quarter annualized basis in Q1. The softness was primarily driven by weaker consumer spending (up 1.0%), though business investment grew at its fastest pace since 2014, up 10.4%. This kept momentum quite solid, with real GDP up by 2.8% year‐on‐year in the first quarter.     

Housing slump could cut world growth to decade‐low

• ? A combined slump in house prices and housing investment in the major economies could cut world growth to a 10‐year low of 2.2% by 2020 – and to below 2% if it also triggered a tightening in global credit conditions.
• ? In such a scenario, inflation would remain well below target in the main economies, and US Fed rates would be up to 100 basis points lower than in our baseline by 2021.
• ? Signs of a global house price downturn are already visible, with around a third of our sample of economies seeing falling prices and world residential investment starting to decline. High house price valuations add to the risk that this downturn will deepen in the coming quarters, hitting consumer spending.
• ? Using the Oxford Global Economic Model, we find that a 10% fall in house prices and an 8% fall in housing investment both cut growth by around 0.3%‐0.4% across regions. Adding a sharp Chinese downturn, such as that seen in 2015, has a large additional impact on growth in Asia .

     

United States

Real GDP rose by 2.1% on an annualised basis in Q4 2016, with consumer spending up 3.5% and inventories contributing 1.0pp to growth. Despite solid “soft” data in Q1 2017, we see GDP growth slowing to less than 1.0% as back‐to‐back monthly declines in real consumer outlays constrain activity. Business investment and trade flows are firming only gradually, while rising inflation is taking a greater bite out of real income and spending.     

Japan

The final Q2 GDP growth estimate was revised up slightly to 0.2% quarter‐on‐quarter. This was slightly higher than the initial estimate of zero but it still represents a slowdown from the 0.5% growth in Q1. Household spending held up better than projected. Private residential investment also surprised on the upside, surging 5% in the quarter, while public spending made another solid contribution to GDP growth. However, export volumes fell 1.5% on the quarter, with both goods and service exports falling.     

THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE RECOVERY

In the run up to the key Christmas period the talk is again of renewed weakness in consumer spending. Last month saw the volume of retail sales rise by only 0.1 per cent, and the annual rate of growth has now slowed to a shade over 3 per cent, down from its peak of 4.4 per cent back in July this summer. This weakness in consumer demand is also clearly being reflected in retail prices; with retailers discounting their prices to boost sales, headline inflation fell to 1.4per cent in October, while the underlying rate dropped to its lowest level for 25 years. This forecast release looks at the wider determinants of consumer spending, especially developments in the housing market. We argue that the slowdown in high street sales is a forbear of sluggish growth to come and that lower interest rates, if they materialise, are unlikely to have much of an impact. While consumer spending has been the driving force out of recession, for the recovery to be sustained, requires that exports and investment spending now take up the running.     

World Economic Prospects Monthly

Overview: Outlook darkens as coronavirus spreads

• ▀ What began as a supply shock in China has morphed into something much more serious. The effects of financial market weakness and the disruption to daily life around the world will trigger lower consumer spending and investment on top of the disruptions to the global supply chain. We now expect global GDP growth to slow to 2.0% this year from 2.6% in 2019, before picking up to 3.0% in 2021. But a global pandemic would lead to a far bigger slowdown this year.
• ▀ China seems to have made progress in containing the spread of the coronavirus, but the slow return to business as normal has prompted us to cut year-on-year GDP growth in Q1 from 3.8% to 2.3%, the weakest in decades. But we expect a healthy growth rebound in Q2 which will also provide Asian economies with a lift.
• ▀ It is isolation policies not infection rates that determine the economic impact. Outbreaks around the world are leading authorities to announce a growing list of measures to curb the virus spread. At a global level any Q2 rebound will thus be small at best. We expect investment in the advanced economies as a whole to contract on a year-on-year basis in Q2 for the first time since the global financial crisis, while annual household spending growth may slow to its lowest since the eurozone crisis.
• ▀ Our baseline assumes that the global economy will return to business as usual in Q3 and that some catch-up will result in robust H2 GDP growth. Combined with favourable base effects in early-2021, this is expected to result in world GDP growth averaging about 3% in 2021.
• ▀ Since January, we have cut our 2020 global GDP growth forecast by a hefty 0.5pp. But larger revisions may be required if the disruption triggered by shutdowns and other responses to coronavirus proves longer than we assume currently or if more draconian actions are needed in the event of a global pandemic. Our scenarios suggest that the latter could push the global economy into a deep recession.

     

United States

Real GDP grew by 1.4% on an annualised basis in Q4 2015, with final sales rising by 1.6% and inventories shaving 0.2ppt from growth. Consumer spending rose by 2.4%, while residential investment capped off a strong year with a 10.1% advance. The major drags on growth came from net trade and business investment. We have revised down our 2016 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% on expectations of a weaker Q1, while our view on 2017 remains at 2.4%. The picture is still one of solid domestic fundamentals being constrained by global headwinds.     

World trade recovering but still reasons for caution

• ? World trade has picked up in recent months, expanding at the fastest pace in six years in the first quarter, with the rise fairly evenly split between advanced and emerging markets. Stronger activity in China and a broader upturn in global investment have been key factors. But there are still reasons for caution. Although the ‘cyclical’ element in world trade is improving, the ‘trend’ element is not thanks to changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation.
• ? World trade growth looks set to reach about a 4% annual rate in Q1 2017, the fastest pace since 2011. Alternative freight‐based indicators confirm the upturn. This suggests some modest near‐term upside risk to our world growth forecasts.
• ? Recent growth has been evenly split between advanced countries and emerging markets (EM). In EM, the end of deep recessions in Russia and Brazil and an upturn in China have been key factors. China directly added 0.5 percentage points to annual world trade growth over recent months and firmer growth there has also pushed up commodity prices and the spending power and imports of commodity exporters.
• ? Another important positive factor is an improvement in investment, which is a trade‐intensive element of world GDP. Rising capital goods imports across a range of countries suggest the drag on world trade from weak investment is fading.
• ? The decline in the ratio of world trade growth to world GDP growth over recent years has both cyclical and structural elements. But while the cyclical component now seems to be improving, there is little evidence that the structural part – responsible for between a half and two‐thirds of the recent decline – is doing likewise.
• ? Key factors behind the structural decline in world trade growth are changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation/protectionism. Both are likely to remain a drag over the coming years. Meanwhile, a levelling‐off of growth in China and drop back in commodity prices could curb the recent cyclical uptick.

     

United States

The unique feature of the global coronavirus recession is its speed. Economic conditions are evolving at such a rapid pace that the final Q1 GDP report now seems very stale. The 5% annualised contraction – the worst drop since 2008 – confirmed the onset of the GCR, with consumer spending and business investment falling 6.8% and 6.4% respectively. We estimate a plunge of 30% in Q2 GDP, driven by a collapse in consumer outlays, severely constrained business activity and stalled trade flows. The peak-to-trough decline in GDP should be around 10% – 2.5 times as bad as the financial crisis.     

United States

Real GDP grew at a slower 2.2% annualized pace in Q4 2018, marking a substantial slowdown from 4.2% in Q2 and 3.4% in Q3. While consumer spending cooled to 2.5% growth, business investment picked up to 5.4% and residential investment remained depressed with a 3.5% contraction in Q4. Net trade exerted a 0.1 ppt drag on growth in Q4, offsetting the contribution from inventories.     

United States

Real GDP growth cooled to 2.0% (annualised) in Q2, following a deceptively strong 3.1% advance in Q1, but the softer headline print masked diverging trends across subsectors. The 4.7% consumer spending splurge was the largest in almost five years. Meanwhile, residential and business investment contracted – the latter for the first time since 2016. But trade and inventories also dragged on growth by 0.7ppt and 0.9ppt, respectively.     

United States

Real GDP rose by 2.0% on an annualized basis in Q3 2015, with final sales up 2.7% and inventories exerting a 0.7pp drag on growth. Consumer spending grew a solid 3.0%, contributing 2.0 percentage points to GDP growth. Business investment advanced 2.6%, led by growth in equipment spending, while residential investment rose by 8.2%. Net foreign trade posed a 0.3pp drag, but was offset by a boost from greater government spending. We see the economy growing by 2.2% in 2016, down from 2.4% in 2015. The picture remains one of solid domestic fundamentals constrained by global headwinds.     

United States

Annualised real GDP growth was revised up from 2.4% to a final reading of 2.6% in Q4 2013. The growth mix was more positive than initially estimated with final sales posting a solid 2.7% advance and inventories neutral for growth. Consumer spending and business investment trends remain favourable, while the government spending drag was offset by a boost to growth from net trade…