对外开放、基础设施规模与经济增长

本文采用主成分分析法构建了一个综合考虑国际贸易和FDI因素的对外开放指标和综合考察4类基础设施的基础设施规模指标。在此基础上利用中国28个省份1995—2008年的面板数据,以工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)研究基础设施规模、对外开放与省区经济增长之间的关系,并检验了基础设施规模是否提高了对外开放对省区经济增长的促进作用。本文的实证结果表明:对外开放和基础设施规模都显著地促进了省区经济增长,对外开放和基础设施规模每提高1%,将导致人均实际GDP提高0.379%和0.251%;基础设施规模提高了对外开放对省区经济增长的促进作用,在基础设施相对发达的地区,其对外开放对省区经济增长的偏效应明显地高于基础设施相对落后的地区;最后从动态过程看,对外开放对各省区经济增长的边际影响都有不同程度提高,而基础设施规模对省区经济增长的边际影响在部分地区出现下降。     

贸易开放与经济增长的内生性研究新进展

关于贸易开放和经济增长的关系在经济学界一直存在分歧,尤其表现在Rodriguez和Rodrik(2000)的评论中。在过去的十年中,数据的丰富和数据质量的提高,新的工具变量的发现以及新的计量方法的运用,使得该领域成为国际经济学的热点领域之一。本文首先介绍了贸易开放的内生性表现,然后从工具变量法、倍差法、配对法和其他识别方法等四个部分展开介绍近年来在这些领域中控制贸易开放的内生性方法,重点关注新的工具变量的构造。应用这些控制内生性方法的研究表明,贸易对于人均收入具有显著地正效应,并且实证结果具有稳健性。全球化对收入的总体影响中,约有一半的效应是来自于纯粹的货物贸易的影响,另一半是来自于全球化的其他因素,如自然人的流动、FDI等。寻找贸易开放的时变的工具变量是该领域未来研究的一个方向。     

External Openness and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

This paper investigates empirically the relationship between two channels of external openness: international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and the rate of economic growth implied by the leader–follower model. The predictions of the theory are tested for the group of 97 developing countries in the period of 1974–2006 using static and dynamic panel data estimation methods. The estimation results show that both international trade and FDI positively contribute to growth.     

出口开放、地区市场规模和经济增长

报酬递增是跨国或区域经济增长发散的重要动因,而市场范围的大小则决定了报酬递增的程度。本文的实证研究发现,地区市场规模和出口开放程度显著地影响了1970—2000年各省区人均收入的增长速度;在地区差距的形成和演进过程中,国外和地区市场是相互替代的,而一旦控制了市场规模因素,各个省区即呈现明显的收敛趋势。本文根据地理特征构造工具变量,有效地控制了变量的内生性问题。     

能源价格变动对经济增长与通货膨胀的影响——基于我国1996～2005年间的数据分析

基于1996~2005年的时间序列数据,本文就中国能源价格变动对经济增长与通货膨胀的影响进行了实证研究。实证结果表明在中国实际GDP、能源价格以及通货膨胀之间存在着长期均衡关系;能源价格变动对经济增长短期呈现负向冲击,它引起的成本推动是本轮通货膨胀的主要原因。     

Township and Village Enterprises,Openness and Regional Economic Growth in China

The authors argue that under the current political and economic conditions the restructuring of Russian enterprises on a mass scale is impossible, because the aims and methods of the restructuring programme often get in the way of the interests of different groups who in fact prosper on the inefficiency of private enterprise. These groups pay lip service to the restructuring process but do everything possible to slow down and block the process when their interests are threatened. The only group which is truly interested in restructuring of an enterprise is the middle managers. However, they are the least influential and least organised to affect enterprise restructuring. The article also addresses the legislation and especially the new law on bankruptcy, which potentially could speed up the restructuring process to a considerable extent. However, owing to the activities of some of the interest groups analysed, the law is failing to achieve its original aim. The occasional success stories have a very limited impact on Russian industries and in fact confirm the argument.     

价格下降的增长意义

理解经济增长的过程不但要从产业发展着手,而且要深入到企业行为层面。而标准的企业行为的理论没有考察其对经济增长的意义,为此文章研究了价格下降对于经济增长的作用,从而在此方面进行一定的努力。文章认为价格下降能从两方面促进经济增长,一方面能直接带来经济增长,另一方面能通过优化市场环境间接促进长远的经济增长。因此,应该鼓励企业进行价格竞争行为,这对于垄断行业的改革、经济持续增长以及收入分配问题的改善有着积极意义。     

论扩大消费需求在促进经济增长中的作用

改革开放以来，我国的市场形式发生了重大变化，由原来的卖方市场转化为买方市场，这是社会主义市场经济发展的结果。买方市场的形成带来了一系列新的问题，突出地表现在消费需求不足成为制约经济增长的主要因素。因此，深入探讨消费需求不足的成因，采取积极的对策，促进经济增长，就显得尤为重要。     

广东省经济开放度对经济增长的长期均衡效应研究

引进外资与对外贸易是广东省外向型经济发展的主要形式.运用协整分析技术和Granger因果关系检验,分析广东省经济开放度对经济增长的长期均衡效应,结果表明经济开放度各项指标与经济增长均存在正向的协整关系,增长是其外资依存度和实际关税率提高的原因,而外贸依存度的提高促进了增长;同时,广东省经济增长与粤港贸易依存度互为因果关系,相互之间存在较强的协整关系.因此,大力提高吸引外资的质量和水平,转变对外贸易增长方式,推进区域经济合作的全面发展,是广东省外向型经济实现持续稳定增长的主要途径.     

金融稳定与物价稳定、经济增长的动态关联性

本文基于2002年第1季度至2014年第4季度的数据,构建中国金融稳定综合指数,并采用带有随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型,对金融稳定与物价稳定、经济增长之间的动态关联性进行实证考察.结果表明:(1)自2002年第1季度以来,中国金融稳定性不断提升.(2)总体而言,各经济变量的脉冲响应强度随着滞后期的延长而逐渐减弱.(3)短期内,经济增长和物价稳定有利于金融稳定;中长期内,经济持续过热不利于金融稳定,物价上涨对金融稳定的负向影响强度逐渐减弱,并可能由负转正.(4)金融稳定对经济增长和物价稳定的影响随着经济环境的变化而发生变化.(5)与金融稳定对经济增长和物价稳定的影响相比,经济增长和物价稳定对金融稳定的影响强度更大、持续时间更长.     

经济运行与增长中的中小企业作用机理

如果偏重于发展大工业企业 ,由于资本利润率下降和工资成本逐年上升规律 ,其资本有机构成随之要提高 ,就业的劳动力相对就越来越少 ,会发生严重的失业和消费不足 ;农业的土地资本有机构成也是一个提高的过程 ,也要逐年挤出大量的劳动力来。中小企业的资本有机构成低 ,其变动不遵从于大工业资本有机构成的变动规律。因此 ,大力发展中小企业可以转移和吸收大工业和农业由于资本有机构成提高而剩余出来的劳动力 ,使资本、就业和消费达到平衡 ,避免出现严重的失业和生产过剩现象。从经济增长看 ,中小企业发展不足 ,将会导致民间投资渠道不畅而使相当一部分储蓄不能正常转化为投资需求。发展中小企业 ,疏通投资渠道 ,变劳动力过剩劣势为劳动力密集便宜竞争优势 ,以及城市化中中小企业在地理上的集中带来的聚集效应 ,将是未来 1 0— 1 5年中国经济高速增长的重要推动力。     

对外开放和经济波动的关联性检验——中国和东亚新兴市场国家的案例

本文运用研究非对称性冲击问题的实证方法考察和比较了东亚4国(韩国、印尼、泰国和中国)在经济开放过程中内外金融资源的相对价格——实际利差的变化及由此引起的宏观经济(产出、货币和银行信贷)的波动特征。这一研究的政策意义在于通过区分外部因素的基本面(mean)变化和突发性的波动(volatility)对本国经济所产生的不同性质的溢出效应(spillover),为政府制定不同的针对性措施提供理论根据。通过引入非对称“时变波动”(asymmetrictimevaryingvolatility)特征的二元EGARCHVAR实证模型,论文得到了三个主要结论第一,虽然为维持名义汇率的稳定,各国政府都积极地干预外汇市场,由此影响了当期内外利差的收敛,但包括中国在内的4个国家金融的实际开放程度都在不断加大。第二,除上世纪90年代国际资本移动的鼎盛阶段外,各国的经济波动并不是由外部冲击直接带来的,而是国内经济的不确定因素导致的。第三,比较各国经济波动特征,可以发现汇率制度、金融市场的开放程度以及资本市场的发展状况对经济波动有很大的影响。     

The Role of State Fiscal Policy in State Economic Growth

Do state policy makers have the ability to affect a state's rate of economic growth? This article examines one possible source of growth and per capita output level disparities by studying the role that state taxation and public expenditure decisions play in fostering economic development. Using pooled annual U.S. state‐level data from 1972 to 1998, a fixed‐effects model is employed to examine the effects of changing tax rates on both state per capita output levels and growth rates. The results indicate that higher tax rates negatively influence short‐run state economic growth, which lowers state output levels. However, long‐run growth is unaffected by changes in state tax rates, even after adjusting for the effects of initial per capita output levels, state expenditures, and aid from the federal government. Nor do changes in state public spending rates and federal aid permanently alter state growth rates, implying that state fiscal policies have only transitory effects on state growth. (JEL H71, O40, R11)     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: the Role of Financial Intermediation

This paper analyzes the impact of public debt on financial efficiency in an overlapping‐generations model. We argue that public debt may reduce intermediation costs by increasing the collateral of entrepreneurs. This effect is stronger, the stronger the non‐Ricardian component of public debt, i.e. the more it is associated with intergenerational redistribution. This effect can be interpreted as future generations acting as a guarantee for the loans provided to the entrepreneurs of the current generation. Furthermore, multiple growth paths may arise as low taxes increase private collateral, which in turn boosts growth via financial efficiency, while higher growth allows to maintain the same debt/GDP ratio with reduced taxes.     

Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers*

Recent empirical findings attribute a central role to the degree of economic openness to determine the size of the fiscal multiplier. See, for instance, Ilzetzki et al. (2013) [How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254]. However, traditional macroeconomic models have difficulties to account for this evidence. By introducing ‘deep-habit’ formation into a New Keynesian small open economy model, this paper provides a theoretical framework which is able to attest for the new empirical evidence. Deep habits give rise to counter-cyclical firm markups, which are crucial to generate effects of openness on the fiscal multiplier as found in the data. We study three dimensions of economic openness: exchange rate flexibility, trade openness, and capital mobility. In line with the empirical findings, we report a negative relationship between measures of economic openness and the fiscal multiplier.     

外商直接投资与经济增长:对金融市场角色的分析

外商直接投资(FDI)可以促进东道国的经济增长,但这种促进作用的实现受到东道国金融市场的影响.金融市场会影响东道国对FDI的吸收能力,从而影响FDI对东道国经济增长的贡献.实证研究结果表明,金融市场是FDI发挥经济增长促进作用的重要影响因素;金融深化、金融市场资源配置效率的提高以及地方金融市场信贷规模的扩大,有助于增强FDI对经济增长的促进作用.     

The Role of Political Instability in Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Greece

This article examines empirically the relationship between stock market development, political instability and economic growth in Greece. We measure socio-political instability by constructing an index which captures the occurrence of various phenomena of political violence using time-series data. The main advantages of analysing political instability in a case study framework using time-series, in contrast with the widely used cross-country empirical studies, are: (a) a more careful and in-depth examination of institutional and historical characteristics of a particular country; (b) the use of a data set comprised of the most appropriate and highest quality measures; and (c) a more detailed exposition of the dynamic evolution of the economy. The empirical results indicate the existence of a strong negative relationship between uncertain socio-political conditions and the general index of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) and support the theoretical hypothesis that uncertain socio-political conditions affect economic growth negatively, is true for the Greek case.
(J.E.L.: G10, G14, O40, C32)     

中国劳动力市场一体化与经济开放

本文从理论和经验上分析了中国劳动力市场一体化及经济开放对该进程的影响,表明:两个劳动力市场的均衡工资差距在受到外生冲击后回到均衡水平的能力是衡量我国区域劳动力市场一体化的一个较好标准;经济开放对我国区域劳动力市场一体化的程度具有显著促进作用,其主要机制是减少或消除劳动力迁移过程中的各种障碍性因素、推进我国地区劳动力市场的开放等;我国各区域劳动力市场一体化进程不同,华北、华东、华南区域劳动力市场一体化的程度更高.