要素禀赋、贸易成本与中国出口产品多元化的目标国差异——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

文章基于2005-2014年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家HS-6出口产品数据,采用洛伦兹曲线和固定效应面板数据分别从理论和实证两个层面考察了要素禀赋和贸易成本对中国出口产品多元化的影响,在此基础上,进一步考虑了近年来中国对外直接投资（OFDI）的迅速增加对出口产品多元化的交互性影响。结果表明,中国与目标国之间的要素禀赋差异越小、地理距离越近、贸易一体化程度越高,中国出口到目标国的产品多元化水平越高;有形资本对出口产品多元化的影响最为显著,远远超过了人力资本和土地等其他要素禀赋;而OFDI的快速增长在一定程度上抑制了出口产品多元化水平的提高,意味着中国“走出去”战略应充分权衡出口多元化与OFDI的关系。     

中国出口产品的国际分工地位研究——基于产品内分工的视角

在同一产品内部,出口产品价格高的国家处于国际分工高端;反之,处于低端。基于此,本文从中国出口产品价格与世界价格比较的角度,分析了中国国际分工地位。结论认为:中国出口产品绝大多数处于低端位置;随着产品技术含量增加,中国分工地位逐渐恶化;加入WTO促进出口增加的同时降低了中国分工地位,中国出口存在一定程度的"悲惨增长";相对于中国经济发展水平而言,中国国际分工地位偏低,两者不匹配。     

出口企业竞争强度是中国出口低价格的主要因素吗?

利用匹配的工业企业微观数据与中国出口六分位数据,本文实证分析了出口企业竞争强度对出口低价格的影响方向和影响程度。结论发现:尽管出口企业竞争强度降低了中国出口价格,但是其影响程度不到1%;相反,进口国价格水平这一"非中国因素"却解释了中国出口产品价格变化的50%以上。因此出口企业竞争强度以及中国自身行业特征并非中国低价出口的主因,这意味着获得"出口定价权"是解决中国低价出口的根本之道。     

贸易风险与价格离散:基于企业-产品级别的验证北大核心CSSCISSCI

同一企业的同一产品在相同年份出口到不同目的地的价格会有所不同,我们将其称为价格离散。贸易风险作为一种隐性交易成本,能够从供给和需求两个方面影响产品的出口价格,从而出现价格离散现象;出口产品种数多的企业更加具有风险意识和区别市场差异的能力,因而更倾向于依据目的地差异来调整价格,即价格离散的程度更大。文章基于国家贸易风险与我国2000～2006年海关数据的匹配数据。在“企业-产品-目的地”的细致层面上对以上观点进行了实证检验。研究结果发现：（1）贸易风险对进口方的影响大于出口方;（2）在企业特征方面,企业的出口产品种数、目的地数越多,其价格离散程度越大;（3）在目的地特征方面,目的地之间的差异化程度越大,价格离散程度越大;（4）在高复杂度产品上,更易产生依据目的地信息调整价格的现象;（5）相比中西部地区,东部地区企业更倾向于依据目的地差异调整价格,即风险意识更强。     

企业出口模式与出口产品质量:微观理论与经验证据

文章借鉴Khandelwal et al.（2013）扩展的产品质量异质性模型,构建了一个两国之间产品贸易的一般均衡模型,并推导企业出口模式选择影响产品质量升级的理论框架,再利用2000-2013年中国工业企业和海关数据构建双重差分模型对理论假说进行系统检验。结果发现：（1）直接出口企业对产品质量的提升效应明显高于间接出口企业,"反事实"检验和安慰剂检验的结果依然稳健。（2）通过异质性分析发现,东部地区企业出口的产品质量提升效应显著高于中西部地区企业,而且中西部地区的间接出口抑制出口产品质量提升;民营、外资企业直接出口和间接出口对产品质量提升效应均高于国有企业。（3）进一步研究企业出口模式的动态转换效应发现,企业由间接出口转向直接出口显著提升了出口产品质量,并且生产率较高的企业通过提升出口固定成本效率而加速出口产品质量升级。     

中国出口中间产品市场集中度:质量竞争还是价格竞争?

文章利用2000~2006年中国海关微观数据,采用产品的单位价格和赫尔芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)分别测度产品的质量和市场集中度,考察了中国出口中间产品的质量对其市场集中度的影响。实证研究表明,单位价格测度的中间产品质量对市场集中度有显著的负向影响,这意味着宏观上中国中间产品出口企业没有采用质量竞争策略提高市场份额,而是采用价格竞争策略来获得市场份额。实证研究还发现,进口中间产品质量、双边中间产品贸易规模、出口企业数量和贸易国收入水平对中国出口中间产品市场集中度有负向影响,而中国行业平均工资和行业人均固定资产对中国出口产品市场集中度具有正向影响。     

东亚经济体的汇率稳定与出口结构因素

本文从理论视角描述了汇率对出口价格传递机制:在进口的投入品比例高时,或出口产品与外国产品相似、竞争激烈时,出口变化对汇率的变动不敏感。而东亚地区出口结构符合这一特性。对于不可避免地增加汇率弹性的中国,也只有使出口结构高级化,才是人民币升值坚实的基础。     

注意力配置与企业出口产品技术含量——来自中国加入3G网络的证据

文章基于2006-2013年中国工业企业数据库、海关数据库和百度指数数据库,借助2009年中国加入3G网络这一外生政策冲击构造准自然实验,采用双重差分法评估注意力配置对企业出口产品技术含量的因果效应。研究发现：（1）注意力配置对企业出口产品技术含量产生了显著的促进作用,即使考虑了识别假设条件和一系列其他可能干扰估计结果的因素后这一结论依旧稳健。（2）从影响机制看,注意力配置会通过提高企业创新效率、降低企业信息搜索成本来促进企业出口产品技术含量的提升。（3）从企业、行业以及国家异质性看,注意力配置更容易促进一般贸易型、高技术产品行业以及面向发达国家出口企业的出口技术含量提升。文章的结论为我国进一步扩大无形市场开放、提高企业出口产品技术含量提供了经验证据。     

内部地理位置与国别出口强度:基于广义线性模型的微观企业研究

文章探讨企业的国内地理位置对出口到不同目的国出口强度的影响,利用广义线性模型(GLM)研究企业空间布局对其产品出口到邻近国家和遥远国家影响的差异性。研究发现:企业与海港之间的距离对出口到遥远国家的出口强度具有显著正向影响,但是对出口到邻近国家无显著影响。企业与城市中心的距离对企业出口到邻近和遥远国家的出口强度具有显著负向影响。目的国的收入高低对企业出口到邻近和遥远国家的出口强度具有显著影响,但方向相反。目的国所在地区产生的区域效应对中国企业的出口强度影响不同,亚洲和非洲对中国企业出口强度影响显著为正;但是,欧洲、北美洲和大洋洲对中国企业出口强度影响显著为负。纯出口企业对内部地理的依赖性更强,且更有可能布局在距离港口较近的地区。     

内部地理位置与国别出口强度:基于广义线性模型的微观企业研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章探讨企业的国内地理位置对出口到不同目的国出口强度的影响,利用广义线性模型(GLM)研究企业空间布局对其产品出口到邻近国家和遥远国家影响的差异性。研究发现:企业与海港之间的距离对出口到遥远国家的出口强度具有显著正向影响,但是对出口到邻近国家无显著影响。企业与城市中心的距离对企业出口到邻近和遥远国家的出口强度具有显著负向影响。目的国的收入高低对企业出口到邻近和遥远国家的出口强度具有显著影响,但方向相反。目的国所在地区产生的区域效应对中国企业的出口强度影响不同,亚洲和非洲对中国企业出口强度影响显著为正;但是,欧洲、北美洲和大洋洲对中国企业出口强度影响显著为负。纯出口企业对内部地理的依赖性更强,且更有可能布局在距离港口较近的地区。     

How the Internet Promotes China's Exports: A Firm‐level Perspective

The development of information and communications technology (ICT), particularly the Internet, has reduced trade costs. However, it remains unclear whether these reduced costs are reflected in the “extensive margins” of firms’ exports (which refer to the probability of firms exporting) or the “intensive margins” (which refer to the value of firms’ export). To test this, we used the concepts of information cost and binary margins, an augmented trade model of firm heterogeneity, a two‐stage Heckman estimation, and data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey of Chinese firms in 2012. The results revealed that reduced trade costs from the use of ICT were positively related to extensive margins but that the connection with intensive margins was not significant. The results lead to the conclusion that reduced information costs related to a firm's exporting behavior were primarily reflected in variable trade costs. This study offers theoretical and empirical evidence for China's policies towards the Internet, which are relevant for the export of manufactured goods. The government should encourage the use of ICT to enhance firms’ export opportunities while facing current trade policy uncertainty.     

生产率是出口决定因素吗?——基于中国企业的实证分析

本文使用1999～2003年全国制造业企业调查数据实证分析影响中国企业出口的因素,特别是企业生产率对出口的贡献。为了得到有效的实证结果,我们采用了OP方法及动态面板GMM估计,特别控制了零贸易观测值产生的估计偏差。研究发现:企业规模、企业出口经验和企业生产率是影响中国企业出口行为的3个重要因素,其中企业规模是最重要的因素,企业生产率对出口的贡献要小于企业规模和企业出口经验,企业区位和外资企业虚拟变量也是影响企业出口的因素。研究表明,中国的出口扩张依赖于资源和劳动力投入而非依赖于企业生产率的提高,中国出口的增长是一种粗放型增长。     

Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries

The literature shows that openness to trade improves long-term growth but also that it may increase exposure to high output volatility. In this vein, our paper investigates whether exporting and export diversification at the firm level have an effect on the output volatility of firms. We use large representative firm-level databases from Estonia, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia over the last boom–bust cycle in 2004–2012. The results confirm that exporting is related to higher volatility at the firm level. There is also evidence that this effect increased during the Great Recession due to the large negative shocks in export markets. We find that export diversification mitigates volatility only in some cases. Exporting more products or serving more markets does not necessarily result in higher stability of firm sales.     

中美贸易失衡的三元边际——基于广度、价格与数量的分解

本文探讨了中美贸易失衡的结构特点。本文首先创建了贸易失衡的三元分解框架,将贸易失衡分解为广度、价格与数量失衡;利用1992～2008年中美HS92版本六分位贸易数据分析了中美贸易失衡的三元边际。结论发现:中国对美国数量顺差,广度与价格却是逆差;这一结论对于不同技术和行业均成立。这说明中美分工格局中,美国占据高端,中国占据低端;美国出口少量、高价、多种类商品,中国出口大量、低价、少种类商品,这是中美贸易失衡的结构特点。这一结构特点反映了中美双方发展水平的差异,短期内很难改变。     

Does environmental regulation affect firm exports? Evidence from wastewater discharge standard in China

This paper examines the effect of water pollution regulation on polluters' exporting decisions and exporting structure. Using a detailed firm-by-product level dataset, we employ a difference-in-differenceds model to identify the causal relationship between environmental regulation and firms' exporting performance. We find that stringent environmental regulation decreases both export likelihood and export values. Moreover, we examine the channels that the environmental regulation could affect firms' exporting performance through entry-exit of the export market, price transmission, adjustments of exporting destinations, and product switch. The tightening wastewater discharge standard appears to deter the new polluters rather than incumbents to enter the export market. Productive polluters could gain the relative larger export market by lowering down exporting prices and selling more products overseas. In response to this water pollution regulation, polluters would make substantial adjustments in their exporting destinations, exporting products, and exports value via different trade modes.     

我国服务贸易与经济增长关系研究

服务贸易在对外贸易中的作用越来越重要。对1982—2011年相关数据进行协整检验和Granger因果检验,发现服务贸易进出口与我国GDP之间的关系不对称：服务贸易进出口是我国GDP增长的Granger原因,而GDP增长只是服务贸易进口的Granger原因,世界GDP总量是服务贸易出口的Granger原因,这说明我国服务贸易出口增长更多得益于全球经济增长。     

Global production networks and China's processing trade

This paper unveils a systematic pattern in China's processing trade. In a cross-section of Chinese provinces, the average distance traveled by processing imports (import distance) is negatively correlated to the average distance traveled by processing exports (export distance). To explain this pattern, we set up a three-country industry-equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms from two advanced countries, East and West, sell their products in each other's markets. Each firm can use two modes to serve the foreign market. It can directly export its products from its home country. Alternatively, it can indirectly export to the foreign market by assembling its product in a third low-cost country, China, which is located in the vicinity of East. Our model establishes two theoretical predictions relating China's geographical location to its processing trade patterns. First, China's processing exports are negatively affected by both an increase in import distance and a rise in export distance. Second, China's processing exports to East Asian countries are more sensitive to export distance and less sensitive to import distance than its processing exports to non-Asian countries. We find empirical support for both predictions.     

Using export market performance to evaluate regional preferential policies in China

We evaluate the effectiveness of two types of preferential regional policy programs in China’s manufacturing sector. The primary goal of the Economic and Technological Development Zones (ETDZs) is to facilitate internationalization strategies, while Science and Technology Industrial Parks (STIPs) aim to generate technology spillovers. Various dimensions of export market performance are used as objective indicators for the upgrading of product quality and firm operations. We compare startups that locate into one of these zones with startups on the outside, while controlling for self-selection using treatment evaluation methods. The results indicate that firms locating in an ETDZ achieve much higher export values, driven by higher volumes of trade and numbers of destinations. Firms locating in a STIP perform best on quality dimensions. In particular they fetch higher export prices and have more success exporting to high-income countries.     

Marginal Distance: Does Export Experience Reduce Firm Trade Costs?

Are the costs of exporting to a market reduced if a firm has experience of exporting to a neighbouring market? If so, does this effect operate through reducing entry barriers or by increasing sales once the firm is operating in the market? This paper examines linkages between current export destinations and entry, sales and exit for new markets. We find that measures of exporting experience in geographically nearby markets increase the probability of entry into a market and reduce the probability of exit. However, these same measures have very limited effect on the firm’s export sales in the market. The effect of related experience on sales tends to be negative for recently entered firms. We interpret this result in the context of the Melitz heterogeneous-firm model of trade by showing that lower fixed costs reduce the entry threshold, but this lower threshold has the effect of allowing lower-sales marginal firms to be present in the market.