Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US

We examine the FED’s monetary policy rule with financial stability considerations and under asymmetry. We use the National Financial Conditions Index constructed by the Chicago FED in order to test whether financial stability concerns enter monetary policy formulations in the US. We model nonlinearity in monetary policy by a Markov regime-switching model. The results show that the monetary policy implemented by the FED can be characterized as a two-state Markov process and financial instability significantly increases the likelihood of regime-switching from a “tranquil” to a “distressed” regime. Moreover, the likelihood of a switch in the FED’s monetary policy regime between tranquil and distressed seems to increase when a certain threshold level of the financial conditions index is reached. Finally, our results seem to be robust to alternative specifications of the reaction function and different forms of non-linearity.     

The (de-)anchoring of inflation expectations: New evidence from the euro area

Well-anchored inflation expectations are a key factor for achieving economic stability. This paper provides new empirical results on the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area. In line with earlier evidence, we find that euro area inflation expectations have been anchored until fall 2011. Since then, however, they respond significantly to macroeconomic news. Our results obtained from multiple endogenous break point tests suggest that euro area inflation expectations have remained de-anchored ever since.     

希腊国债危机对欧洲银行业信息披露的动态影响

本文探讨了希腊国债危机对银行信息披露的动态影响。经过对173家欧洲银行2009和2011年年度报告的数据统计,分析显示:自危机爆发以来,欧洲银行增加了其年度报告的长度,尤其是年度报告中的风险管理部分的长度。经过实证分析还发现,不管是银行的年度报告还是其风险管理报告长度的增加都与银行的资本成本所受到的外源性冲击相联系。而这种对资本成本的外源性冲击主要是希腊危机引起的。最后研究还发现,2011年风险管理报告部分的增加在一定程度上缓解了之前银行资本成本所收到的冲击,而年度报告的增加与此没有明显的关联。     

Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach

We make an assessment of the current account and price competitiveness of the Central Eastern European countries that joined the EU, using data up to 2016. Foreign capital flows, fiscal balance and relative output growth seem to play a crucial role in explaining the current account balance. The real effective exchange rate gaps behave in accord with the current account misalignments, which clearly display cyclical behaviour. When foreign direct investments are introduced as a determinant, the misalignments are larger in boom periods (positive misalignments), whereas the negative misalignments are smaller in magnitude. Overall, the countries have moved closer to their equilibria since 2010.     

HR department professionalism: a comparison between the UK and other European countries

Although HRM professionalism in terms of the competence of individual HR practitioners receives considerable attention, the collective professional behaviour of HR departments in organizations is more frequently overlooked. This paper, based on Europe-wide survey data, attempts to bridge this gap in our understanding by examining HR department professionalism in terms of strategic involvement in corporate activities. Findings for the UK indicate that HR departments as a whole demonstrate limited professional behaviour and that this situation has remained largely stable over the last decade. However, variations between national contexts are notable. A key observation is the consistently significant positive correlation in the UK between board membership and the department's level of strategic involvement.     

Specification of Distance Functions Using Semi- and Nonparametric Methods with an Application to the Dynamic Performance of Eastern and Western European Air Carriers

In this paper we examine the productive performance of a group of three East European carriers and compare it to thirteen of their West European competitors during the period 1977–1990. We first model the multiple output/multiple input technology with a stochastic distance frontier using recently developed semiparametric efficient methods. The endogeneity of multiple outputs is addressed in part by introducing multivariate kernel estimators for the joint distribution of the multiple outputs and potentially correlated firm random effects. We augment estimates from our semiparametric stochastic distance function with nonparametric distance function methods, using linear programming techniques, as well as with extended decomposition methods, based on the Malmquist index number. Both semi- and nonparametric methods indicate significant slack in resource utilization in the East European carriers relative to their Western counterparts, and limited convergence in efficiency or technical change between them. The implications are rather stark for the long run viability of the East European carriers in our sample.     

广义泰勒规则与中央银行货币政策反应函数估计

本文在扩展基准泰勒方程的前提下,构建了包含金融深化指标、外汇储备变化变量以及中国金融状况指数(FCI)在内的广义泰勒规则函数,并对相关模型进行估计。研究发现,前瞻性反应函数更好地拟合了中国货币政策变动的产出绩效;货币政策规则在一定程度上约束了货币当局的相机抉择行为,可以稳定公众的通货膨胀预期,并为货币政策的操作提供一个名义锚;中国货币当局的利率调控呈现出逆周期与顺通胀的特征;中央银行的利率调整缺乏弹性,对广义货币供给的绝对数量并不敏感。     

基于中部崛起的湖北城乡物流衔接模式研究

中部地区具有承东启西、纵贯南北的区位优势和综合资源优势,在我国经济社会发展全局中占有重要地位。论文主要研究了中部崛起战略下湖北城乡物流的衔接模式:在简要分析了中部崛起战略的重要战略意义的基础上,分析了湖北经济和物流业的发展所带来的机遇;之后简要介绍了湖北省的三大物流圈,重点分析了武汉物流圈,进而研究了基于中部崛起的武汉市城乡物流的三种衔接模式;同时分析了这些衔接模式在湖北城乡物流的衔接上面的可行性与适用性。论文的观点希望能为湖北城乡物流的有效衔接,为促进湖北地区物流与流通业的迅速发展提供参考。     

A comparison of the ratio of variances in distance-based and classical multivariate analysis

In multivariate analysis, the measure of variance accounted for plays a central role. In this paper, we show that an alternative approach, distance-based multivariate analysis, also yields solutions that can be summarized by a ratio of variances. For classical multivariate analysis, this ratio is equal to the variance accounted for (VAF) and in distance-based multivariate analysis it equals distance accounted for (DAF). We show that DAF in distance-based multivariate analysis can always be made higher than VAF in classical multivariate analysis. This property is illustrated for principal components analysis, multiple correspondence analysis, multiple regression, and analysis of variance.     

人民币汇率与中美贸易关系

近年来,在人民币汇率问题上,美国不断向中国施压,要求人民币升值。最近,该问题的争论愈演愈烈。本文从此问题的背景入手,随后分析人民币汇率与对外贸易的相关理论,弄清影响人民币汇率的因素以及汇率变动的经济效应。再具体分析当前情况下,人民币升值的对中美双方的利与弊。权衡利弊后,给出政策建议。     

Risk spillover between the US and the remaining G7 stock markets using time-varying copulas with Markov switching: Evidence from over a century of data

This paper analyses the risk spillover effect between the US stock market and the remaining G7 stock markets by measuring the conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) using time-varying copula models with Markov switching and data that covers more than 100 years. The main results suggest that the dependence structure varies with time and has distinct high and low dependence regimes. Our findings verify the existence of risk spillover between the US stock market and the remaining G7 stock markets. Furthermore, the results imply the following: 1) abnormal spikes of dynamic CoVaR were induced by well-known historical economic shocks; 2) The value of upside risk spillover is significantly larger than the downside risk spillover and 3) The magnitudes of risk spillover from the remaining G7 countries to the US are significantly larger than that from the US to these countries.     

非货币性资产交换新旧准则的差异及其应用

随着经济的发展和会计制度的进一步完善,财政部于2006年2月制定了新的会计准则。其中,会计准则第七号规范了非货币性资产交换的确认、计量和相关信息的披露。由此,引发了新旧准则的差异分析。通过理论与实例相结合,加深对新准则下非货币性资产的认识。     

我国房地产价格与宏观经济变量关系的实证分析

在对住宅服务流量模型进行修正的基础上,运用回归分析方法对我国房地产价格与宏观经济变量的长期关系进行了实证分析,研究结果表明:利率对我国房价影响较小,降息对房地产市场的刺激作用有限;房地产市场长期均衡需要人均可支配收入快速增长作保证;为控制房价稳中有降,银行应适度增加房地产信贷,但不能过度。在当前房地产市场出现"拐点"的形势下,政府要根据房地产市场的变化情况来制定相应的宏观调控政策,恢复市场信心,促进房地产市场健康发展。