Regional integration,international liberalisation and the dynamics of industrial agglomeration

This paper presents a 3-region footloose-entrepreneur new economic geography model. Two symmetric regions are part of an economically integrated area (the Union), while the third region represents an outside trade partner. We explore how the spatial allocation of industrial production and employment within the Union is affected by changes in two aspects of trade liberalisation, regional integration and globalisation, conditional to the skill endowment and the market size of the outside region. Our main contribution pertains to the analysis of the local and global dynamics of the specified factor mobility process. We show that significant parameter ranges exist for which an asymmetric distribution of economic activities is one of the possible long-run outcomes which may allow a smooth transition to agglomeration (in contrast to the NEG typical catastrophic scenario). In addition, we show that multistability is pervasive and that some attractors are Milnor attractors. Both results reinforce the NEG narrative on the importance of initial conditions for the long-run location of industrial activity.     

TRADE AND FACTOR FLOWS IN A DIVERSE EU: WHAT LESSONS FOR THE EASTERN ENLARGEMENT(S)?

Abstract.  This paper reviews the neoclassical and new economic geography (NEG) theoretical frameworks used to analyse the effects of integration on trade and factor flows, and the empirical work carried out within those theoretical frameworks for the European case. The European Union (EU) is of particular interest because it is illustrative of the tensions between deepening of the integration process and widening membership: whereas deepening requires homogeneity, widening has made the EU increasingly diverse. The orthodox framework saw trade and factor flows as substitutes, thus separating their analysis, and was mainly concerned with efficiency issues of trade integration. The NEG framework saw trade and factor flows as complements, and analysed them jointly, looking mainly at distribution issues such as disparities in industry location and wages arising from a single market for goods and factors. The main lesson for the Eastern enlargement(s) is that integration in its various forms leads to an uneven distribution of gains across member countries when these have very diverse economic structures.     

The Location of Comparative Advantages on the Basis of Fundamentals Only

We propose a new way to locate the comparative advantages of two economies linked by international trade. We construct a competitive benchmark based only on the fundamentals of the two economies: endowments, preferences and technologies. The direction of trade is endogenously determined by a linear program with an input-output core. The factor contents of that trade are compared with factor endowments to test the Heckscher-Ohlin model in the presence of different technologies and preferences. We can also evaluate the gains of free bilateral trade. The model is applied to a customs union between Europe and Canada. The Heckscher-Ohlin factor abundance specialization hypothesis is supported by the data.     

Institutions and International Trade: A Reconsideration of Comparative Advantage

Abstract. Persistent inconsistency between predictions of standard theoretical models and empirical evidence of international trade dynamics suggests that the traditional understanding of the determinants of actual international trade patterns is incomplete. What is missing? A recent literature suggests paying more attention to the role of the domestic institutional environment. The level and nature of development of the relevant institutions may be shown to affect competitiveness, by altering both production and transaction costs. In the extreme case, alternative institutional architectures that emerge in different countries may be interpreted as the cause of relative advantage/disadvantage even if technological levels, factor endowments and tastes are identical everywhere. Although in standard international trade models institutions remain implicit, it is hard to explain trade patterns and international competitiveness without taking institutions explicitly into consideration. By reviewing and reorganizing the most interesting contributions on this issue, this survey discusses how institutional diversity affects comparative advantage and international trade dynamics.     

National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany

Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany`s export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger.     

Transaction costs and a redundant security: divergence of individual and social relevance

This paper shows that, in markets with transaction costs, even if a redundant security does not even save individual investors' total costs for their security trading, the prices of the other securities may well be different were it to not be available for trade, resulting in a different equilibrium consumption allocation. In this sense, a redundant security may give rise to the divergence of individual and social relevance in markets with transaction costs. We then show that this divergence may also be a robust phenomenon with respect to perturbations in utility functions, initial endowments, and transaction costs.     

On the structure of the set of fixed price equilibria

Working in the framework suggested by Drèze, this paper studies the number of fixed price equilibria and their continuity with respect to the price system. In an exchange economy, the concept of a rationing scheme is introduced, which specifies how shortages are shared among agents. For given utility functions and a given rationing scheme, under standard assumptions, an existence theorem is recalled, and it is shown that the graph of the equilibrium correspondence, when prices and initial endowments vary, is a piecewise continuously differentiable manifold. Moreover, generically, the number of equilibria for an economy, at given prices, is finite and the set of equilibria varies continuously with the price system and the initial endowments.     

Does Skill Content Explain Total Trade and Intra‐Industry Trade?*

This study compares the results of skill content tests for types of trade flows under alternative assumptions about the technologies used to produce imports and exports. For trade between high‐ and middle‐income countries, we show that the match between the actual skill content of trade and that predicted by endowments in a Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek framework improves substantially if technological heterogeneity across countries is allowed for and if the factor content of intra‐industry trade is included with that of inter‐industry trade. Endowment differences are important in explaining net trade and vertical intra‐industry trade, but not horizontal intra‐industry trade.     

Rational expectations equilibrium and the strategic choice of costly information

This paper studies costly information acquisition in one-good production economies when agents acquire private information and prices transmit information. Before asset markets open, agents choose the quality of their private information. After this information stage, agents trade assets in sequentially complete markets taking into account their private information and the information revealed by equilibrium prices (rational expectations equilibrium, (Radner, R., 1979. Rational expectations equilibrium: generic existence and the information revealed by prices, Econometrica 47, 655–678.)). An overall equilibrium in asset and information market is defined as a Nash equilibrium of the information game in which agents’ actions are information choices and their utility payoffs are the ex-ante expected utilities of the corresponding rationale expectations equilibrium. This paper shows that for a generic set of economies parameterized by endowments and productivity shocks, an overall equilibrium in information and asset market (a Nash equilibrium of the induced information game) with costly information acquisition and fully-revealing prices exists. In other words, informational efficiency is in general consistent with costly information acquisition.     

Constrained suboptimality when prices are non-competitive

The paper addresses the following question: how efficient is the market system in allocating resources if trade takes place at prices that are not competitive? Even though there are many partial answers to this question, an answer that stands comparison to the rigor by which the first and second welfare theorems are derived is lacking. We first prove a “Folk Theorem” on the generic suboptimality of equilibria at non-competitive prices. The more interesting problem is whether equilibria are constrained optimal, i.e. efficient relative to all allocations that are consistent with prices at which trade takes place. We discuss an optimality notion due to Bénassy, and argue that this notion admits no general conclusions. We then turn to the notion of p-optimality and give a necessary condition, called the separating property, for constrained optimality: each constrained household should be constrained in each constrained market. If the number of commodities is less than or equal to two, the case usually treated in the textbook, then this necessary condition is also sufficient. In that case equilibria are constrained optimal. When there are three or more commodities, two or more constrained households, and two or more constrained markets, this necessary condition is typically not sufficient and equilibria are generically constrained suboptimal.     

A note on the structural stability of the equilibrium manifold

In a smooth pure exchange economy with fixed total resources we investigate whether the smooth selection property holds when endowments are redistributed across consumers through a continuous (non-local) redistribution policy. We show that if the policy is regular then there exists a unique continuous path of equilibrium prices which support it.     

General Equilibrium Analysis of International TFP Growth Rates

The paper presents a study of the total factor productivity (TFP) performance among developed countries between 1985 and 1990. The analysis includes the three large economies: the US, Japan and Europe. A general equilibrium model of these economies is used to estimate TFP growth at the sectoral and at the aggregate levels. The model is based on the fundamentals of the economies and employs only data on input-output flows, factor inputs across sectors, consumption and trade patterns and endowments. Prices are endogenous in the model. They are obtained as shadow prices from the model's linear program and then used to measure TFP growth and decompose it in a technical change effect, a demand effect and a terms-of-trade effect. The technical change effect is highly correlated with the conventional Solow residual measure. This result lends support to the standard measure of technological change.     

Smooth preferences and the regularity of equilibria

To study equilibria we describe an economy by its distribution of consumers' preferences and endowments. All preferences are smooth and weakly convex. Demand of an economy need not be single valued, but there is an open dense set of economies for which demand is a C¹-function in a neighborhood of the equilibrium prices. We call an economy regular if its excess demand is transversal to zero. A regular economy has locally unique equilibria. It is shown that regular economies form an open dense set on which the equilibrium price correspondence varies continuously and the number of equilibria is locally constant.     

Transport costs, intermediate goods, and localized growth

This paper presents a dynamic, two-regional, general equilibrium model in which interregional production and trade patterns are endogenously determined. Localized growth stems from the geographical concentration of an industrial sector exhibiting permanent productivity increases. Geographical concentration is a result of the interaction between local market size and local competition in the differentiated input industry. Regional factor endowment with an immobile factor is decisive for the long-run specialization, trade and growth patterns between the regions if large endowment differences prevail. With equal-sized regions, multiple equilibria exist. Furthermore, we argue that integration might lead to increasing regional concentration of production and innovation.     

The real exchange rate and the structure of aggregate production

This paper proposes a new, production theory approach to the determination of the real exchange rate, which is defined as the relative price of traded to nontraded goods as is common in the international trade literature. Using a Translog real GDI function that describes the aggregate technology of an open economy as a starting point, the real exchange rate can be formally derived as a function of domestic excess savings, the terms of trade, relative factor endowments and technological progress. Empirical results for Switzerland suggest that the main drivers of the real exchange rate are the terms of trade, followed by relative factor endowments. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Balassa-Samuelson effect does not seem to play a significant role in explaining the long-term real appreciation of the Swiss franc.     

Equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping-generations exchange economy

An extension to the Yaari (1965)–Blanchard (1985) continuous time overlapping generations model for an endowment Arrow–Debreu economy with an age-structured population is presented. It is proved that Arrow–Debreu equilibrium prices are represented by a double linear integral equation, and depend on the age-distributions of population and endowments. For an economy with a balanced growth, and logarithmic utility, we prove that bubbles may exist if endowments are distributed earlier than some critical age.     

Technology and endowments as determinants of comparative advantage: Evidence from Mexico

We analyze whether the pattern of Mexico's comparative advantages in manufacturing trade flows, vis-à-vis its closest competitors, are related with productivity differentials (Ricardian hypothesis) or with differences in factor endowments (Heckscher–Ohlin hypothesis). The results suggest that Heckscher–Ohlin determinants tend to be more relevant than labor productivity differentials to explain the differences in the export patterns between Mexico and its competitors. This result holds even when we restrict the analysis to Mexico and other countries with relatively small differences in factor endowments, although in this case Ricardian comparative advantages gain some relevance.     

Accounting for growth in retail trade: an international productivity comparison

In this paper we argue that the standard approach for measuring output and productivity in the trade sector has become obsolete. The key problem is that changes in prices of goods purchased for resale are not accounted for. We outline a consistent accounting framework for measuring trade productivity and provide new estimates, taking into account purchase prices of goods sold in a double deflation procedure. We find strong productivity improvements in the UK and US compared to France, Germany and The Netherlands since the mid-1990s. This finding is robust for various productivity measurement models.

Equilibrium in incomplete markets: I : A basic model of generic existence

This paper demonstrates the generic existence of general equilibria in incomplete markets. Our economy is a model of two periods, with uncertainty over the state of nature to be revealed in the second period. Securities are claims to commodity bundles in the second period that are contingent on the state of nature, and are insufficient in number to span all state contingent claims to value, regardless of the announced spot commodity prices. Under smooth preference assumptions, equilibria exist except for an exceptional set of endowments and securities, a closed set of measure zero. The paper includes partial results for fixed securities, showing the existence of equilibria except for an exceptional set of endowments.     

Outsourcing and trade in a spatial world

This paper provides an analysis of outsourcing and trade in a spatial model à la Hotelling. In this setting, we discuss the trade-off between transport-cost-related disadvantages and outsourcing-related production cost advantages of a large economy and we investigate how the existence of national transport costs influences both the structure of industrial production and the pattern of final goods trade. In addition, the model gives a rich picture of the possible welfare effects of trade liberalization. In particular, we show that a final goods exporting country definitely gains from economic integration, while a final goods importing country may lose. Finally, when lowering domestic outsourcing activities, trade liberalization may reduce world welfare, even if pro-competitive effects lead to a decline in consumer prices.