开放式基金业绩与VaR风险持续性比较研究

分别采用列联表和横截面回归方法,选择基金净值收益率、Jensen指数度量基金业绩,VaR度量基金收益风险,分析2004年1月～2008年4月间我国开放式基金中的股票型基金与混合型基金业绩和风险的持续性,及其在牛市和熊市阶段的不同表现,发现仅在2004年～2005年期间基金经过风险调整的业绩具有持续性,在其它阶段,基金业绩和风险均没有显著持续性;当市场从牛市转为震荡调整阶段后,基金业绩出现反转现象,而风险具有显著的持续性。     

VaR在我国开放式基金绩效评价中的应用研究

通过按照开放式基金的种类,选取一级市场上30只开放式基金为样本,采用基于VaR的RAROC方法,运用统计学软件Eviews中处理厚尾现象著称的GARCH模型进行统计分析,得出的结论是:成长型基金的绩效低于股票基金标准;平衡型基金和收入型基金的RAROC值相对较高,超过了股票基金标准;指数型基金的绩效超过股票标准(市场数据);在债券种类中,债券基金的绩效最高。     

如何选择基金投资

正银行利率太低,民间理财风险太高,基金作为风险小,比定期存款高的理财产品受到很多人的追捧,如何选择基金成为很多人关注的话题。现在我国的基金主要有以下四种:货币型基金、债券型基金、股票型基金、混合型基金。货币型基金指的是全部资产都投资在各类短期货币市场上的基金;债券型基金指的是债券投资比例占基金资产80%以上;股票型基金指的是股票投资的比例占基金资产60%以上;混合型基金指的是投资于股票、债券和货币市场工具,但是投资股票和债券的比例又不满足股票型基金和债券型基金要求的基金。     

基金主动性、投资者类型与收益的相关分析

文章选取2005——2015年作为时间窗口,以混合型基金和股票型基金为研究对象,通过对基金主动性做出定义给出其衡量指标,得到如下结论:第一,基金主动性管理的确能够带来超额回报。第二,与熊市相比,当市场为牛市时这种超额回报现象会更加明显。第三,基金规模越大,会影响到基金的流动性以及基金经理的决策,对收益造成不利影响;基金相对成立的时间越长,越可能积累相关的投资经验和投资技巧,使基金有更优的收益。第四,基金类型与基金收益有着较强烈的关系,表现在普通股票型基金作为投资产品的多样性会低于混合股票型基金,从而相对收益也较低。     

基于詹森阿尔法的开放式基金业绩评价

本文运用基于CAPM模型的詹森阿尔法业绩评价方法对我国股票型开放式基金的业绩进行评价，得出如下结论：（1）以詹森阿尔法值表示的开放式基金业绩超越了证券市场收益；（2）开放式基金在不同时期内的业绩不稳定；（3）指数型基金在检验期内的詹森阿尔法值排名明显落后于积极型基金，从一个侧面反映出我国证券市场的效率不高。（4）CAPM模型本身可能易受异常因素的影响。     

股票、债券和基金市场间的收益率联动关系

文章对股票、债券、基金三市场对数收益率建立向量自回归(VAR)模型结果表明在2007—2014年无论是熊市、牛市还是震荡,债券市场对股市有负的影响,基金市场对股市产生正的影响。而近两年来,债券市场对股市出现了正的影响,基金对股市的影响出现了正负交替的现象。     

债市近期走势好于股市 投资债券基金注意3点

<正>进入2008年以来,有汇添富增强收益、华夏希望债券、广发增强债券基金、易方达增强回报、交银施罗德增利和工银瑞信信用添利等多只债券型基金陆续发行。从市场的反馈看,华夏希望债券基金发行数日就募集超过70亿。     

超额需求对基金交易行为及股价波动的影响分析

以基金对股票交易量的超额需求为视角,选取2011年第四季度至2012年第四季度的交易数据为样本,测度了证券投资基金羊群行为的存在程度,并探讨了基金在股票交易时所采取的反馈策略,最后实证分析了超额需求与股价变化的关系。通过对超额需求度的实证分析,我国证券投资基金羊群行为是显著存在的,基金在进行股票交易时遵循正反馈交易策略。     

基于心理账户理论的开放式基金分红策略研究

本文基于心理账户理论,对我国开放式基金分红状况进行了分析,发现具有分红的基金比例低,满足分红要求的基金数量少,分红的金额不合理等特点。并分别对股票型基金、债券型基金、混合型基金、货币型基金的分红策略提出建议。     

林园炒股8大秘籍

<正>秘籍5:熊市策略与牛市策略大多数股民在熊市的时候,能不赔钱就已经算好的了,而林园在熊市的时候也能赚钱。林园认为牛市最大的风险就是赚不到钱。林园在实战中总结出了一套熊市和牛市     

机构投资者的交易行为研究:来自中国台湾股市的证据

文章以中国台湾股市为研究对象,主要研究机构投资者的交易行为。文章构建了机构投资者交易不平衡性指标——净交易,在此基础上研究机构投资者的交易行为。研究结果表明:台湾股票市场中以外资和投信基金为代表的金融机构投资者表现为正反馈的交易策略,并且交易的信息含量较高;一般法人的交易表现为负反馈的交易策略,并且交易的信息含量不足;而自营商由于交易动机复杂,交易的信息含量不明确。可见不同的机构投资者的交易行为并不相同。     

惯性或反转策略会提升投资绩效吗?——以开放式基金为例的实证分析

运用面板模型,将交易策略指标纳入Sharpe指数多因素门限模型,分别考察在前期Sharpe指数为正和为负的情况下,惯性和反转交易策略对基金绩效的影响。对2006年第一季度至2010年第三季度中国开放式基金面板数据的分析表明:惯性策略在总体上会对投资绩效产生负面影响,而反转交易策略对投资绩效的影响则始终是不显著的。     

风格漂移与基金绩效

基于收益率的风格分析模型,对国内36支开放式基金进行动态分析,将基金的实际投资风格和宣称的投资风格进行比较。研究发现绝大多数的基金在此研究期间发生了"风格漂移"现象,牛市行情中发生"风格漂移"的基金绩效要优于固守宣称风格的基金绩效,熊市行情中发生"风格漂移"的基金绩效要低于未发生"风格漂移"的基金绩效。     

The Canadian Hedge Fund Industry: Performance and Market Timing

We analyze the risk and return characteristics of Canadian hedge funds based on a comprehensive database we compiled. We find that Canadian hedge funds have higher risk‐adjusted performance and different distributional characteristics relative to the global hedge fund indices. We investigate market timing by Canadian hedge funds and find that they do not time the Canadian or global stock and bond markets, but hedge funds in the Managed Futures strategy group time the commodity market. These results are robust to parameter instability and structural changes in the model. We also illustrate the impact of using local and global risk factors to analyze the performance of local investment firms.     

我国开放式基金投资者流动性交易行为与基金业绩关系的实证研究

本文考察开放式基金由于投资者的申购和赎回而产生的流动性交易行为及其与基金业绩的关系,得出如下结论:(1)我国开放式基金投资者对单个基金认同程度很不一致,导致了对不同基金的申购和赎回差异悬殊;(2)投资者热衷于炒作小盘基金,使得其流动性交易远比大盘基金活跃,小盘基金更容易被少数大额持有人操纵而从中牟利;(3)我国开放式基金的业绩与其申购率成正向关系,但与赎回率没有明显的负向关系;(4)国外学者的早期研究发现,投资者倾向于购买业绩好的基金,但却不一定赎回业绩差的基金,这种业绩—流量的不对称性现象在我国基金市场同样存在。     

RUNNING FOR THE EXIT: DISTRESSED SELLING AND ENDOGENOUS CORRELATION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

We propose a simple multiperiod model of price impact from trading in a market with multiple assets, which illustrates how feedback effects due to distressed selling and short selling lead to endogenous correlations between asset classes. We show that distressed selling by investors exiting a fund and short selling of the fund’s positions by traders may have nonnegligible impact on the realized correlations between returns of assets held by the fund. These feedback effects may lead to positive realized correlations between fundamentally uncorrelated assets, as well as an increase in correlations across all asset classes and in the fund’s volatility which is exacerbated in scenarios in which the fund undergoes large losses. By studying the diffusion limit of our discrete time model, we obtain analytical expressions for the realized covariance and show that the realized covariance may be decomposed as the sum of a fundamental covariance and a liquidity‐dependent “excess” covariance. Finally, we examine the impact of these feedback effects on the volatility of other funds. Our results provide insight into the nature of spikes in correlation associated with the failure or liquidation of large funds.     

A note on closet-indexing

Actively managed equity mutual funds with returns that are highly correlated with popular stock market indices like the S&P 500 often are accused of “closet-indexing”. We ask whether a trading strategy that shorts these funds and buys “true” index funds makes money for investors. Using a sample of high-R² growth-and-income funds from the CRSP survivor bias free mutual fund file, we document that the Sharpe ratio of this trading strategy and the market Sharpe ratio are statistically indistinguishable in the 1991–2000 sample period. The result is consistent with the view that widespread closet-indexing does not exist in the mutual fund industry.     

Bond Fund Performance During Recessions and Expansions: Empirical Evidence from a Small Market

This paper provides the first investigation about bond mutual fund performance during recession and expansion periods separately. Based on multi‐factor performance evaluation models, results show that bond funds significantly underperform the market during both phases of the business cycle. Nevertheless, unlike equity funds, bond funds exhibit considerably higher alphas during good economic states than during market downturns. These results, however, seem entirely driven by the global financial crisis sub‐period. In contrast, during the recession associated to the Euro sovereign debt crisis, bond funds are able to accomplish neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the debt crisis seems to be related to more conservative investment strategies, which reflect an increase in managers' risk aversion.     

PROFIT SHARING IN HEDGE FUNDS

In a new scheme for hedge fund managerial compensation known as the first‐loss scheme, a fund manager uses her investment in the fund to cover any fund losses first; by contrast, in the traditional scheme currently used in most US funds, the manager does not cover investors' losses in the fund. We propose a framework based on cumulative prospect theory to compute and compare the trading strategies, fund risk, and managers' and investors' utilities in these two schemes analytically. The model is calibrated to the historical attrition rates of US hedge funds. We find that with reasonable parameter values, both fund managers' and investors' utilities can be improved and fund risk can be reduced simultaneously by replacing the traditional scheme (with 10% internal capital and 20% performance fee) with a first‐loss scheme (with 10% first‐loss capital and 30% performance fee). When the performance fee in the first‐loss scheme is 40% (a current market practice), however, such substitution renders investors worse off.