New evidence on the incremental information content of earnings reported using the LIFO inventory method

This study extends prior research by comparing the relative information quality of LIFO earnings and non-LIFO earnings using updated data and methodology. Results suggest LIFO earnings are incrementally informative independent of tax reporting implications. In addition to shedding light on why the results of prior studies present conflicting evidence about the relative information content of LIFO, these findings are important in light of international accounting standards convergence efforts, under which LIFO is currently prohibited.     

Quality of reported earnings by Chinese firms: The influence of ownership structure

This paper examines the influence of ownership structure on earnings quality of firms listed on the Chinese Stock Exchanges. We empirically test four contemporary earnings quality measures, including volatility of earnings, variability of earnings over cash flows, correlations between accruals and cash flows, and level of discretionary accruals, for 1438 firms listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange. We find that although state-owned firms are bigger in size and appear more profitable based on reported earnings; privately-owned firms, foreign-owned firms and society-owned firms outperform the state-controlled firms in earnings quality; and foreign-owned firms have the highest earnings quality among all types of ownership groups. We find that there is not much difference in earnings quality between collectively-owned firms and state-owned firms and employee-owned firms exercise least discretion in earnings management. The findings in particular will have direct policy implications for the China Securities Regulatory Committee (CSRC).     

The incremental information content of replacement cost earnings

The study explores the incremental explanatory power of replacement cost earnings variables (derived from ASR 190 data) with respect to explaining cross sectional differences in security returns. As such, the study is a natural extension of previous research, including analyses of the effect of security returns of ASR 190 data at the time of disclosure, investigations of cross sectional relationships between security returns and historical cost earnings, and studies of multiple signals. The basic finding is that pre-holding gain net income provides no incremental explanatory powerm given knowledge of historical cost earnings. However, the converse does not hold. Taken together, the findings are consistent with the contention that pre-holding gain net income is a garbled version of historical cost earnings. The basic finding is robust under several extensions of the initial research design. The research design incorporates a two-stage approach which permits a determination of the incremental explanatory power of collinear variables. The findings are in contrast to those of a previous study by Easman et al. (1979). The nature of the difference in research design inducing the difference is identified. Potential reasons for the difference in findings are provided.     

The effect of earnings surprises on information asymmetry

We examine the effect of earnings surprises on changes in information asymmetry. We hypothesize and find that asymmetry is lower (higher) in the quarter following positive (negative) earnings surprises compared to firms that meet the consensus analyst earnings forecast. The relations between earnings surprises and information asymmetry are stronger when the surprises are more likely to capture investors’ attention. Examining the source of these changes, we show that decreased information search activities is the most important factor for asymmetry declining after positive surprises; for negative surprises, decreased uninformed trading plays a dominant role increasing asymmetry.     

Evaluating the information content of earnings forecasts

This study develops a framework to compare the ability of alternative earnings forecast approaches to capture the market expectation of future earnings. Given prior evidence of analysts’ systematic optimistic bias, we decompose earnings surprises into analysts’ earnings surprises and adjustments based on alternative forecasting models. An equal market response to these two components indicates that the associated earnings forecast is a sufficient estimate of the market expectation of future earnings. To apply our framework, we examine four recent regression-based earnings forecasting models, alongside a simple earnings-based random walk model and analysts’ forecasts. Using the earnings forecasts of the model that satisfies our sufficiency condition, we identify a set of stocks for which the market is unduly pessimistic about future earnings. The investment strategy of buying and holding these stocks generates statistically signi?cant abnormal returns. We offer an explanation as to why this and similar strategies might be successful.     

Intertemporal variation in the information content of aggregate earnings and its effect on the aggregate earnings-return relation

Review of Accounting Studies - We develop and test explanations for sources of intertemporal variation in the information content of aggregate earnings and how that variation explains variation in...     

The effect of target managerial ownership on the choice of acquisition financing and CEO job retention

In this paper we report on our investigation into whether the level of target managerial ownership has an effect on acquisition financing choice and target CEO job retention. We find that cash is more likely used to finance acquisitions when target management ownership levels are high. This result is consistent with a reduced monitoring hypothesis, where bidding firm managers seek to avoid the formation of a large block holder that may become an active monitor. We also find evidence specific only to stock deals that the probability of target CEO job retention increases with the level of target managerial ownership. In these cases, it appears the potential benefits associated with retaining certain target managers outweighs any negative consequence associated with creating a new monitoring block.     

The information content of annual earnings announcements and mandatory adoption of IFRS

This study examines whether the information content of earnings announcements – abnormal return volatility and abnormal trading volume – increases in countries following mandatory IFRS adoption, and conditions and mechanisms through which increases occur. Findings suggest information content increased in 16 countries that mandated adoption of IFRS relative to 11 that maintained domestic accounting standards, although the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption depends on the strength of legal enforcement in the adopting country. Utilizing a path analysis methodology, we find evidence of three mechanisms through which IFRS adoption increases information content: reducing reporting lag, increasing analyst following, and increasing foreign investment.     

The effect of voluntary disclosure,ownership structure and proprietary cost on the return–future earnings relation

This study examines the effect of voluntary disclosure on the relation between current annual return, contemporaneous annual earnings and future earnings, and the influence of both ownership structure and proprietary cost on this relation. Regression analyses reveal that firms with higher voluntary disclosure levels contain more information about future performance in their current stock return. This positive association is weaker if (1) management holds a higher proportion of share ownership in the company, (2) proprietary cost is present and (3) government ownership exists. However, the existence of outside block ownership significantly decreases managers' ability to limit voluntary disclosure. Our findings remain significant after controlling for the usual factors (size, growth, etc.) in the return–earnings regression, and a series of sensitivity and robustness checks.     

The real-time information content of macroeconomic news: implications for firm-level earnings expectations

This paper investigates the usefulness of the real-time macroeconomic news-flow as a leading indicator of firm-level end-of-quarter realized earnings. Using recent advances in macroeconomics, I develop a nowcasting model for quarterly earnings and provide two main findings. First, I show that my model provides out-of-sample expectations that are as accurate as analysts’ forecasts. Second, macroeconomic news embedded in my nowcasts is not fully incorporated into investors’ earnings expectations and predicts future abnormal returns around earnings announcements. These findings have three main implications for capital markets research. First, real-time macroeconomic news can be used to update earnings expectations in real-time. Second, there are economic benefits of doing so, as evidenced by the magnitude of risk-adjusted returns around earnings announcements. Third, after three decades of almost nonexistent research on time-series models for quarterly earnings, the door is open again for fruitful research in this area.     

The ownership structure of UK firms and the informativeness of accounting earnings

This paper provides evidence that in the UK, a firm's ownership structure is related to the informativeness of its accounting earnings for price. Evidence is reported that concentrated outside ownership is negatively related to the contemporaneous price-earnings association. This is interpreted as indicative of more non-accounting information being collected and disseminated for firms whose ownership includes large outside (non-managerial) blocks and a consequential loss of informativeness of contemporaneous accounting earnings. Having controlled for the information environment, we provide evidence that the overall relation between return and earnings is attenuated for firms with diffuse outside ownership. This is interpreted as evidence of the market anticipating opportunistic managerial manipulation of earnings when outside ownership is diffuse.     

The incremental information content of non-US GAAP earnings disclosures: Evidence from UK firms

This paper examines price and trading volume responses in the US equity market to the preliminary earnings announcements (PEAs) in the UK of UK firms listed on US exchanges (e.g., NYSE and AMEX). The inquiry focuses on whether the return forecast error (absolute and squared values) and volume residual (standardized and unstandardized) for each day were significantly different from the average on the day of the earnings announcements (PEA). The most significantly unexpected return occurred the day prior to the Financial Times (FT) announcement. The results suggest prompt volume and price responses to the UK PEAs in the US security market. Excess trading volume occurred the day prior to and the day of the FT release price response occurred on the day subsequent to the PEAs. This may suggests that investors possess differential prior beliefs or likelihood functions in evaluating public disclosure. Consistent with Frost and Pownall [Frost, C., & Pownall, G. (1996), Interdependencies in the global markets for capital and information: The case of Smithkline Beecham plc. Accounting Horizons, 1, 38-57], US investors seem not to be confused by US/UK generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) differences, and in fact use information about UK GAAP earnings in their valuations and trading decisions. This implies that traders correctly use UK accounting output to the determination of values in setting security prices and arriving at trading decisions. Broadly, these findings support the assumption that disclosures by UK-listed firms in their domestic market influence share liquidity and trading in the US market.     

The influence of CEO and CFO power on accruals and real earnings management

In this study, we examine the effect of CEO and CFO power on both accruals and real earnings management (AEM and REM, respectively), and the extent to which CEO and CFO power mitigate the effect of one another on AEM and REM. We further examine whether the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) altered these effects. In the pre-SOX period, we find that AEM (REM) is greater when the CEO (CFO) is powerful relative to the CFO (CEO). In the post-SOX period, however, we find that the effect of relative CEO power on AEM subsides, whereas the effect of relative CFO power on REM persists. Additionally, we find evidence to suggest that powerful CFOs inhibit the AEM preferences of powerful CEOs in both the pre- and post-SOX periods. Finally, we find evidence to suggest that powerful CEOs inhibit the REM preferences of powerful CEOs in the pre-SOX period, but not in the post-SOX period. Collectively, our results suggest that the power of the CEO relative to the CFO is an important factor in the both the type and magnitude of earnings management.

     

The information content of earnings announcements: new insights from intertemporal and cross-sectional behavior

This study examines the information content of quarterly earnings announcements, measured as the magnitude of stock price revision at earnings announcements relative to price revision at other times. We investigate whether quarterly earnings announcements are informative using a nonparametric approach and 1971–2011 sample period. The findings affirm prior evidence on earlier sample periods that significantly more information is conveyed to investors in the three days around earnings announcements than in randomly chosen three-day periods. Next, we examine the behavior of information content over our sample period and document four key findings. First, there is a dramatic increase in information content at earnings dates from 2001 onward. Second, the market reaction to loss firms is substantially less than that for profitable firms. Third, there is a significantly greater reaction to larger firms. Fourth, reaction at earnings dates is significantly increasing in analyst coverage, and once analyst coverage is controlled, the association with size becomes less significant.     

Is CEO certification of earnings numbers value-relevant?

On June 27, 2002, the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States ordered the CEOs and CFOs of 688 large firms to certify the earnings numbers of their companies by 5:30PM EST, Aug 14, 2002. This paper uses this natural experiment to find that certification was not only a non-event for the certifiers around their certification date, but it was also a non-event for the non-certifiers around Aug 15, 2002. Further tests make us conclude that CEO certification of earnings numbers is not value-relevant.     

Value maximization and the information content of corporate investment with respect to earnings

In this paper we study the dynamic nature of the relationship between earnings and investment. If managers act as wealth maximizers, we would expect that new investments should lead to increased earnings. However, past research has found that investment is not causally prior to earnings. Using recent developments in time-series econometrics, we show that the dynamic nature of the relationship between earnings and investment exhibits bi-directional causality. Our results are consistent with managers investing in positive NPV projects, but managers appear to face financing constraints because investment decisions are driven by the availability of internally generated earnings.     

The information content of financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency

The paper assesses the information content of revisions in financial analysts' forecasts of earnings by analyzing the relation between the direction of these revisions and stock price behavior. Abnormal returns during the months surrounding the revisions in analysts' forecasts are computed and evaluated. The results strongly indicate that information on revisions in forecasts of earnings per share is valuable to investors. It is also suggested that market reaction to the disclosure of analysts' forecasts is relatively slow and gives rise to potential abnormal returns to investors who act upon this type of publicly available information.     

CEO career concerns and the precision of management earnings forecasts

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We extend the research on how CEOs address career concerns during their early tenure in firms and we argue that CEOs use a forecast precision...     

The effect of earnings quality and country-level institutions on the value relevance of earnings

This study investigates the relationship between the value relevance of earnings and earnings quality across countries. We find that there is a stronger relationship between earnings quality and the value relevance of earnings in countries with high investor protection than in countries with weak investor protection. We also find that the association between the value relevance of earnings and earnings quality is higher when a country’s information environment is less opaque. Overall, our study documents evidence on international differences in the ability of stock prices to capture useful accounting information, consistent with the notion that the returns-earnings association reflects not only the quality of accounting earnings but also the informativeness of stock prices.