The long-run decline in the share of agricultural and food products in international trade: a gravity equation approach to its causes

The objective of this study is to determine the causes of the loss of share of agricultural products and food in international trade. The article compares, using a gravity model, the impact of various factors upon bilateral trade in agricultural products, in manufactures and in total trade, between 1963 and 2000 for a representative sample of 40 countries. The results clearly demonstrate how the low demand elasticity for agricultural products and food, the high degree of protectionism to which they were subjected and their meagre share in intra-industrial trade are the principal causes of their relatively slow growth.     

Widowhood and health of elderly in India: examining the role of economic factors using structural equation modeling

Evidence on the association between widowhood and health is widely available in the literature. However, there is a dearth of analysis on the mechanism through which widowhood affects the health status of an individual, particularly in old age, specifically whether widowhood among the elderly affects their health through their economic conditions. This paper purports to establish both the direct and indirect effects of widowhood on self-reported health status among aged Indians. We examine the mediating effect of economic factors such as income, labor force participation, extent of economic independence and other economic factors in the relationship between widowhood and health status. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is employed to test specific hypotheses. We use unit level 60th round data for the year 2004 surveyed by the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO). The results confirm that poor economic conditions have a mediating effect on the relationship between widowhood and health and, therefore, any policy to reduce the effect of widowhood on health must be based on economic factors.     

The role of product market regulations in the process of structural change

The sectoral allocation of labor differs considerably across developed economies, even in the presence of similar patterns of structural change. A general equilibrium model that captures the stylized facts of structural change is presented. In this framework, economy-wide product market regulations hinder the development of dynamic sectors such as service industries. This is consistent with the negative cross-country relationship between product market regulations and the service employment share, discussed in the paper. Additionally, the model suggests that higher service prices and rents in regulated economies reduce labor supply, providing a rationale for the negative association between product market regulations and the employment rate previously found in the literature.     

A categorical modeling approach to analyzing new product adoption and usage in the context of the building-materials industry

A high proportion of non-adopters is prevalent in any market where the product under consideration is relatively new or has a low acceptance rate. This results in a low proportion of adopters in a representative sample. In adoption or product usage modeling such high proportion of zeros in the dependent variable may be addressed by zero-inflated models, by modeling the product adoption and usage as a function of two latent processes. This paper considers a zero-inflated ordinal-probit model for investigating adoption and usage of innovative wall-cavity insulation materials among residential homebuilders in the US. This study assumes a three-step adoption process of innovative housing materials, namely, trial adoption, intermediate adoption and complete adoption. The study uses 5757 responses from a combined ‘Annual Builder Practices Survey’ dataset comprising ten cross-sectional yearly surveys, undertaken by the NAHB Research Center, from 1996 to 2005. The research results indicate that though a higher proportion of large firms are more likely to adopt innovative insulation material, they continue using established products while slowly increasing their use of the innovative material over time. However, when smaller homebuilders adopt an innovative insulation material, it replaces the existing product from their material usage portfolio at a faster rate.     

Heterogeneous returns to personality: the role of occupational choice

We analyze the role of personality in occupational choice and wages using data from Germany for the years 1992 to 2009. Characterizing personality by use of seven complementary measures (Big Five personality traits, locus of control, and a measure of reciprocity), the empirical findings show that personal characteristics are important determinants of occupational choice. Associated with that, identical personality traits are differently rewarded across occupations. Hence, breaking down the analysis on the level of occupational groups provides more detailed results of returns to personality. By evaluating different personality profiles, we additionally estimate the influence of personality as a whole. The estimates establish occupation-specific patterns of significant returns to particular personality profiles. These findings underline the importance to consider the occupational distribution when analyzing returns to personality due to its heterogeneous valuation.     

Strategic R&D and the innovation of products: understanding the role of time preferences and product differentiation

We evaluate the effects of innovation on competition using an optimal control approach that incorporates firms' time preferences. Using a model where firm(s) innovates by investing in research and development to create a more appealing product for heterogeneous consumers, we examine conditions that maximize social welfare. When firm(s) choose discount rate regardless of market structure, a monopoly will develop more innovative products. However, we show that duopolies may increase innovation if competition alters firms' outlook. Finally, we identify firm incentives to behave myopically, which in the context of collusion may impede industry-wide innovation.     

Rational inattention and revealed preference: The data-theoretic approach to economic modeling

Beliefs have as pervasive a role as utility functions in economic models of choice, and are no more visible to the naked eye. This suggests the value of a data-theoretic approach to imperfect information along the lines of Samuelson's “revealed preference” approach to utility maximization. I introduce a recently developed approach of this nature (Caplin and Martin, 2013a, Caplin and Dean, 2013a, Caplin and Dean, 2013b). I highlight the broader potential of the data-theoretic approach to answer questions of an inter-disciplinary nature and to discipline an oncoming flood of behaviorally-relevant data.     

New product and service launching in new ventures: a multilevel approach to innovation antecedents

Macro-economic policies such as public financing seek to push the development and introduction of innovations; however, entrepreneurs also need support in their ‘day-to-day’ activities to improve their capability to launch innovations. As this micro-level perspective is rarely studied, we analyze both the micro and macro levels by examining the effects of the entrepreneurs’ individual intention to innovate and public financing. Additionally, we include the meso level, representing entrepreneurs’ network. Entrepreneurs are embedded in social spheres in which they capture resources and identify opportunities. But not all entrepreneurs are equally well supported, and some tend to be completely isolated. We thus focus on multilevel factors explaining new product or service launching in new ventures. Drawing on data of 48,251 French new ventures, we reveal that innovation intention and public financing positively impact new ventures’ product and service innovation launching, while entrepreneurs’ isolation has a negative effect. We also highlight two interaction effects that enhance the multilevel effects of innovation antecedents.     

The role of personality traits in pension decisions: findings and policy recommendations

Many countries need to stimulate pension participation and contribution to ensure their citizens are prepared adequately for retirement. Identifying at-risk groups with tendencies of not joining pension plans will help governments target strategies to improve pension awareness and participation. This study investigates the role of personality traits in pension decision making using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. Our results demonstrate that Extraversion significantly correlates with non-participation in private pensions, including both employer run and personal pensions. Individuals who are high in Conscientiousness are more likely to participate and pay more into personal pensions. Openness to experience is negatively correlated with saving via personal pensions. Agreeableness and Extraversion correlate inversely with the amount contributed to personal plans. This paper discusses our findings in detail and offers policy implications which may help promote pension participation and ease the problem of old age poverty.     

The changing role of consumers and suppliers in a food safety event: the 2006 foodborne illness outbreak linked to spinach

This article provides a means for testing whether buyers or sellers are responsible for a drop in sales following a market shock. We show that suppliers’ responses dominated the market reaction to the 2006 US Food and Drug Administration warning to avoid fresh spinach contaminated with potentially deadly bacteria Escherichia coli O157:H7. A modified Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for temporary price endogeneity is developed and used in a leafy green vegetable demand model. Test results indicate the price of bagged spinach was exogenous before the announcement but endogenous for approximately 12 weeks afterward. We show these results are consistent with the notion that suppliers temporarily limited the availability of spinach to consumers. Instead of consumers choosing the quantity purchased given exogenous prices, it was suppliers who limited the quantity marketed and consumers’ choices established the market price.     

Intertemporal substitution in import demand and the role of habit formation: an application of Euler equation approach for Pakistan

Introduction

The study examines the importance of intertemporal substitution in import demand considering the role of habit formation. A two-goods version of the permanent income model is used in which time-non-separability in consumers’s preferences is assumed. The model is estimated using annual data for Pakistan at disaggregated level covering the period from 1977 to 2017.

Objectives

The objective of the study is to estimate elasticities of substitution along with parameters of habit formation for consumption goods at a disaggregated level.

Method

The study employs co-integration for the estimation of parameters of elasticities of substitution and generalized method of moments (GMM) for the estimation of the parameters of habit formation from Euler equations.

Findings

The estimates of intertempral elasticity of substitution suggest that the nature of commodity group (necessity/luxury) plays an important role when consumers are making intertemporal choices. Moreover, the study finds that intratemporal elasticity of substitution is larger than intertempral elasticity of substitution in almost all cases in Pakistan, suggesting that imported and domestic goods are best described as substitutes in Edgeworth-Pareto sense. In addition, the inclusion of habit formation delivers results with plausible signs and the habit formation process seems significant for certain commodity groups including tea, beverages, tobacco products and drugs.

Conclusion

The study concludes that there is a possibility of crowding out effect on domestic consumption and the depreciation of local currency may improve Pakistan’s balance of trade.

     

Estimation of the efficiency of structural funds: a parametric and nonparametric approach

This article seeks to perform an analysis of the efficiency of the application of the structural funds in the regions classified as Objective 1 over the period 2000 to 2006, applying the techniques known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier. In the first place, we are going to identify which are the most efficient regions. Finally, we will analyse the extent to which certain factors have repercussions on the efficiency such as country, geographical location and contribution of agriculture of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the result indicates that some of these variables have significantly influences of technical efficiency.     

The impact of incentives on the intention to try a new technology

Persuading users to try new technologies continues to be a problem confronting organisations and technology vendors alike. To better understand the process of new technology trial and adoption, several theoretical models have been proposed, of which the Technology Acceptance Model has gained significant support. However, research concerning tangible extrinsic rewards has not been explored. The primary goal of this research is to study the impact of tangible extrinsic rewards on various aspects of an intention to engage in an initial trial of a new technology. The theoretical model was tested on 284 students as subjects in a trial of a new technology. Results suggest that such incentives may be effective in increasing the behavioural intention to try a new technology. Results also identify that when incentives are provided, perceived ease of use and usefulness are the primary drivers towards intentions to try a new technology.     

Hindsight,insight, and foresight: a multi-level structural variation approach to the study of a scientific field

In this article we introduce a multi-level structural variation approach to the study of a scientific field. The approach is motivated by an explanatory and computational theory of transformative discovery and novel structural variation metrics derived from the theory. We integrate the theoretical framework with a visual analytic process that enables an analyst to study the literature of a scientific field across multiple levels of aggregation and decomposition, including the field as a whole, specialties, topics and predicates. We demonstrate the use of this approach through a study of regenerative medicine.     

The CAP and comparative advantage changes: The case of processed food and agricultural products

Conclusion This empirical study has analysed the implications of the CAP for member countries' net trade performance: To this effect it has attempted to distinguish supply and demand effects appropriately reflected in the comparative advantage concept and specific to a product, from factors related to national environment, specific to the country. Our findings have shown unambiguously that national environment effects have been relatively modest in general, compared to comparative advantage effects which have played a dominant role in determining trade performance. On the other hand, the comparative advantage gains over the period under consideration have been secured through a deliberate community policy choice and accentuated by the tendency of national governments to renationalize the CAP.This policy has undoubtedly been successful in bringing about an efficient agricultural sector for EC members and in reducing the gap in terms of comparative advantage between these countries, particularly to the benefit of the less favoured among them. However, since the CAP is basically founded on the manipulation of the price system which largely determines the present pattern of comparative advantage, a serious question could be raised as to whether this pattern will remain unaffected in the event that the support price system should come to an end, or at least be severely reshaped, in the face of the growing burden imposed on the community and the pressing need for the latter to sell the surpluses, with the aid of subsidies, on world markets. If the gains in comparative advantage could not be considered as definitively acquired, we should obviously challenge the wisdom of continuing to endure the cost of the policy.On a conceptual level, since the price system prevailing in the community has been policy determined, an investigation into the major determinants of comparative advantage for the protected products in following the Heckscher-Ohlin line which emphasizes the influence of factor endowments, whatever these factors may be, would appear to be in our opinion, irrelevant.This paper is an extension of a research on International Specialization in Differentiated Products carried out with the financial support from the Commissariat Général du Plan. The views expressed here are attributable solely to the author, who wishes to express his thanks to Olivier Gaussens for his computer assistance, and to Luc Bauwens for his helpful comments. For lack of space, the detailed computation will be sent on request.     

The estimation of a hedonic asking and offer rent equation model: An EM algorithm approach

In this paper we claim that modeling housing markets, specifically the rental housing market, should be based on some sort of disequilibrium framework. We posit a model of asking and offer rents in the spirit of a sample selectivity model. This approach allows us not only to test whether landlords and tenants agree upon the marginal evaluations of unit attributes, but also to estimate the impact on rental demand of tenant specific attributes such as family income and race. Since estimators obtained from this procedure are consistent, but not efficient in this two equation context, we employ an EM algorithm in our estimation in order to obtain MLE equivalent estimators. We have found that our data support the use of this disequilibrium approach in that the coefficient estimates for the asking rent equation, under the assumptions of a sample selectivity model, are not coincident with those obtained from an uncorrected equation.     

A naturalistic approach to the theory of the firm: The role of cooperation and cultural evolution

One reason why firms exist, this paper argues, is because they are suitable organizations within which cooperative production systems based on human social predispositions can evolve. In addition, we show how an entrepreneur, given these predispositions, can shape human behavior within a firm. To illustrate these processes, we will present a model that depicts how the biased transmission of cultural contents via social learning processes within the firm influence employees’ behavior and the performance of the firm. These biases can be traced back to evolved social predispositions. Humans lived in tribal scale social systems based on significant amounts of intra- and even intergroup cooperation for tens if not a few hundred thousand years before the first complex societies arose. Firms rest upon the social psychology originally evolved for tribal life. We also relate our conclusions to empirical evidence on the performance and size of different kinds of organizations. Modern organizations have functions rather different from ancient tribes, leading to friction between our social predispositions and organization goals. Firms that manage to reduce this friction will tend to function better.     

The role of identity and authority from anarchy to order: Insights from modeling the trajectory of dueling in Europe

The economics literature usually assumes order in terms of a Weberian state with monopoly over the means of violence. In this paper, we study historical situations in which such an order is absent and violent conflict namely duel of honor is an institution. Anarchy or the absence of state rules in managing violence does not imply the absence of private rules and arrangements (such as codes of dueling). Our focus is on the possible ways that a Weberian order can emerge from anarchy. We endeavor to capture this transition by introducing a computational model in which a simulated agent represents a social individual who considers both economic and political factors and interacts with other individuals as well as institutions to make a decision. We then use the trajectory of dueling in England, France, and Germany to validate our approach. The paper demonstrates how a complex, aggregative historical process over three centuries may be consistently explained on the basis of rational choices among heterogeneous agents conditioned by their group identity and State authority.     

The interest elasticity of household savings: a structural approach with German micro data

This paper empirically investigates the effects of changes in the interest rate as well as in the current and expected future consumer price levels on households’ consumption–savings decision. In a structural demand model applied to German consumption data, we use cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in prices and tax rates to construct individual after-tax interest rates and cluster-specific consumer prices. We find that the compensated own-price elasticities for savings as well as consumption are significantly negative, while the theoretical model implications of homogeneity and symmetry must be rejected. Importantly, we estimate the uncompensated interest rate elasticity of savings, in line with the literature, at around zero. Some heterogeneity in this elasticity is found along the savings and wealth distribution. We conclude that short-term policy-induced variation of net returns to savings is expected to have no significant effects on the level of compound savings.