国际经济调整中的民营企业走出去战略思考

在经济危机导致各国贸易保护势头日益强化的情况下,我国产品试图通过贸易的方式继续进入美国及其他国家市场,将会变得异常困难。同时,资本及产业输入和输出比例的严重失衡,也让国际资本挤占了国际市场的盈利空间。借助本次危机所形成的国际经济结构调整与洗牌,企业要将直接出口面临的挑战转变为对外直接投资的机遇,这是转型时期企业发展的最佳选择。企业在"走出去"的过程中,要注意抓住特殊时期对企业投资的有利因素,规避各种风险,选择好对外投资的主体、渠道、领域及对象,逐步完成出口为主向出口和投资双向驱动为主的战略转变。     

全球价值链、对外直接投资与我国出口的空间差异性研究

研究我国出口在不同经济体间的分布以及对外直接投资对出口的影响,对于转变我国对外贸易增长方式、塑造对外开放新优势具有重要意义。本文采用贸易增加值方法测算我国对发达国家和发展中国家增加值出口差异,并探讨对外直接投资对我国增加值出口差异性的影响。研究发现：对外直接投资有利于缩小我国出口空间差异,主要是对外直接投资在发达国家和发展中国家的贸易创造效应,而非贸易转移效应发挥作用。基于此,应发挥对外直接投资在提升我国全球价值链地位中的重要作用、加强与发展中经济体合作、持续深化高水平对外开放。     

后危机时代对外直接投资的机遇与战略设计

后危机时代的贸易竞争将更趋激烈,贸易摩擦已从传统的商品贸易摩擦转向了广义的经济摩擦。发达国家重振制造业的进口替代新战略直接对我国目前大批量产品出口战略造成冲击。解决这一问题的根本办法就在于将商品出口为主的贸易方式逐步转向对外直接投资,而对外直接投资的关键又在于准确把握国际产业结构调整的趋势,进行全方位的对外直接投资战略设计。     

后危机时代出口信用保险的功能创新研究

出口信用保险是各国政府以国家财政为后盾,为企业在出口贸易、对外投资和对外工程承包等经济活动中提供风险保障的一项政策性支持措施,是世界贸易组织补贴和反补贴协议原则上允许的支持出口的政策手段。对各国的出口信用保险模式以及各国特别是我国在应对国际金融危机中出口信用保险所发挥得作用进行了分析。     

后危机时代国际国内经济贸易新情况和新特点

受国际金融危机及国内频繁调整的影响,2008年下半年以来,国际国内经济贸易形势发生了较为复杂的变化,出现了一些新情况和新特点,比如,我国工业经济发展前景不容乐观,产能过剩问题突出,进出口总值下降明显,非金融类对外投资快速增长,外商直接投资减少,国际国内需求不足,反对和遏制贸易保护主义成为全球共同的任务.     

广东省对外直接投资对贸易出口的影响研究

本文主要研究广东省对外直接投资对贸易出口的影响,除了通过理论分析外,还利用广东省2003年到2014年的时间序列数据,进行实证分析。通过协整检验得出,对外直接投资对贸易出口存在正相关关系。同时,本文结合实证结果(广东省的对外直接投资及居民消费对贸易出口有促进作用),提出相应的对策建议。     

后危机时代河北省出口企业发展战略研究简

自2009年下半年以来,全球渡过金融危机的恐慌,进入到经济走向复苏、但经济形势依然复杂的“后危机时代”这一时期,河北省出口企业的发展面临诸多挑战,也获得了一定的机遇.作为深受金融危机影响、后危机时代复苏情况并不稳定的出口大省,河北省出口企业和金融机构等相关部门应结合当前复杂的经济形势,了解所面临的挑战和机遇,制订合理的发展战略,从拓展出口市场、应对贸易保护主义、提高产品竞争力、规避汇率风险、推动对外直接投资、调整结算方式、拓宽融资渠道等方面,促进出口企业的持续健康发展.     

影响中国企业国际市场进入模式选择的因素分析——以出口模式与对外投资模式为例

本文从我国的对外出口贸易与对外直接投资的现实状况出发,利用进入国际市场模式影响因素相关理论对我国企业出口模式与对外投资模式进行探讨,通过比较分析,为我国企业从出口型向直接投资型的转变提供建议。     

出口市场份额、FDI流入与中国制造业出口技术复杂度

为了考察外部因素对中国制造业出口技术升级的影响,本文从双边贸易的视角构造"中国—贸易伙伴"双边出口技术复杂度指标,并将出口市场因素纳入考虑,分析中国在贸易伙伴的出口市场份额与贸易伙伴外商直接投资对中国制造业出口技术升级的作用。研究结果表明:中国与57个主要贸易伙伴的双边出口技术复杂度顺贸易伙伴出口技术复杂度梯度增长;贸易伙伴市场份额的提升和外商直接投资流入对中国制造业出口技术复杂度的总体作用为负,该结论存在出口市场与行业的异质性; OECD经济体和非OECD经济体出口市场份额的提升对劳动密集型行业出口技术复杂度提升产生了抑制作用;非OECD经济体出口市场份额的提升有利于中国资本技术密集型行业的技术升级; OECD经济体出口市场份额和外商直接投资流入对资源密集型行业出口技术复杂度提升产生了积极影响。     

浅析中国对外直接投资与出口的关系

随着我国经济融入全球经济一体化进程的加快,中国对外直接投资与贸易,尤其是与出口之间的联系越来越密切,已表现出相互促进和相互补充的交叉发展特征,从未来发展趋势来看,我国对外直接投资与我国出口的联系将会得到进一步加强,并且作为经济全球化的两种重要表现而具有越来越强的不可分割性。本文重点从我国目前以对外产业内垂直型投资为主的投资特点所带来的出口引致效应分析了我国对外投资与出口的关系,提出了相应的对策建议。     

新时期中国对外贸易及战略调整分析

国际金融危机对全球经济格局的影响是广泛而深远的。正确判断后危机时代全球经济格局的变动趋势,及金融危机对我国经济结构的动态性长远影响,对于我国在外贸出口锐减、国际贸易壁垒高企、发达经济体"制造业回归"等不利因素冲击下更好地参与经济全球化具有重要的意义。本文对扩大内需突破口的寻找、内需主导型经济模式的创设、奢侈品消费市场的回流、一般生活必需品的必须消费逐渐向非必须消费转变、非生活必需品的个体消费逐渐向群体消费转变等问题进行了探讨。     

Supply Chains,Global Financial Shocks and Firm Behaviour towards Liquidity Needs

Driven by the increasingly important role of supply chains in global production, this paper studies empirical association between global credit‐market shocks and firm behaviour towards liquidity needs across countries and industries. Focusing on the adjustment of working‐capital financing, we find two pieces of supporting evidence from international firm‐level panel data covering the period 2002:I–2012:IV. First, for industries where specific investment in the input supplier–customer relationship is large, firms are more exposed to credit‐market shocks. We find that measures of global credit‐market shocks are negatively associated with trade receivables, trade payables and inventories, conditional on the level of contract intensity in the industries where firms operate. Second, firms in emerging markets are more vulnerable to credit‐market shocks than are firms in developed countries. We are also able to verify the economic significance of sales growth, operating cash flows, cash stock and firm size in the overall adjustment. Our findings highlight the importance of balance‐sheet contagion along supply chains during the 2007–09 global financial crisis.     

Stock markets in the new world order

The dramatic expansion of capital markets in emerging economies the world over is far from a recent, isolated occurrence. As David Hale observes, this is less a new development, and much more akin to the international financial environment that flourished prior to the First World War. It is a phenomena resulting from the rebirth of liberal economic ideas in many developing countries, the expanded role of securitized forms of financial intermediation everywhere and a search for higher asset returns by investors in the mature industrial countries. These developments provide further confirmation that the 1990s will ultimately be remembered not only as the era of emerging markets, but as the decade in which global capitalism returned to its pre-1914 frontiers.     

外资非正常撤离法律对策的探讨

外资非正常撤离是指未履行在中国的纳税和清算义务的外资退出行为。频繁发生的外资非正常撤离,不仅给中国相关利益方造成了严重的经济损失,而且对中国的投资环境和社会稳定也带来了消极影响。国际金融危机的爆发在很大程度上诱发了外资撤离,但从深层次角度分析,地方政府部门过度追求"经济财政"却是外资非正常撤离的根本原因。在客观认识外资非正常撤离原因的基础上,有必要研究应对外资非正常撤离的法律对策,包括完善和建立外资信用机制、监管清算机制、紧急联动机制、法律追究机制等行之有效的补救机制,减少外资非正常撤离的负面影响,不断完善外商投资法律体制。     

后金融危机时期湖北外贸出口的战略选择

作为美国的重要贸易伙伴和世界贸易大国的中国不可避免地受到由美国次贷危机引起的国际金融危机的影响,而作为拉动湖北经济增长＂三驾马车＂之一的湖北外贸出口同样在国际金融危机影响下形势严峻,举步维艰。后金融危机时期湖北为了提高外贸出口的长期竞争力,一方面政府应该加大政策扶持,强化服务,营造良好的企业发展环境;另一方面企业应加快出口品牌建设,科技兴贸,提高国际市场竞争力。此外,行业商会也要努力协调,开拓新兴市场,寻求产品进入国际市场的突破口。     

Shift‐contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets

As part of a broader financial development reform agenda, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have successfully expanded and revitalised their stock markets over the last decade. Whereas previous contributions have investigated efficiency, international integration and portfolio diversification opportunities, very little is known about these markets’ vulnerability to external financial crises. In this paper, we investigate shift‐contagion to the MENA region using a comprehensive battery of econometric tests for a number of different crises episodes: the 1997 Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian virus and its Brazilian sequel, the 2000 Turkish collapse, the 9/11 turmoil, the 2001 Argentinean crisis, the 2002 Enron/WorldCom scandal and the 2007–09 global financial crisis. We found that Turkey, Israel and Jordan were the most vulnerable markets over the 1997–2009 period, followed by Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Lebanon. Our results also highlight heterogeneous but increasing levels of sensitivity to external financial shocks, especially during the recent global financial crisis. From a financial point of view, this suggests that MENA‐based diversification strategies may be relatively inefficient during periods of global turmoil. From an economic point of view, our results suggest that stock market development also involves potential destabilisation costs. This issue should be acknowledged and addressed by policymakers if these countries are to ensure a smooth transition towards international financial integration.     

国际金融危机与世界经济前景

国际金融危机目前已经发展到第二阶段,其影响从发达国家扩展到发展中国家,从金融领域蔓延到实体经济。2008年发达国家经济已经陷入衰退,全球经济增长率大幅放慢。鉴于国际金融危机还在继续恶化,2009年全球经济增长率会进一步降低。但我们认为,房地产市场2009年下半年可能会趋于走稳,油价下跌,通货膨胀压力减轻,由于主要大国采取政府干预措施以及经济政策的国际协调,全球经济发生20世纪30年代那样大萧条的可能性不大。除了短期内经济衰退之外,这场国际金融危机的中长期影响将是深远的。     

Financial Globalisation and Emerging Markets Volatility

The volatility of capital flows to emerging market (EM) countries and frequency of financial crises have imposed high welfare costs on the countries involved. The empirical literature provides, at best, a mixed picture on the relationship between long‐run EM country growth and financial integration. Meanwhile, the prevailing policy discourse regarding reform of the international financial system remains incomplete: the focus has largely been on either institutional and policy measures required of EM countries or international crisis‐resolution procedures. The role played by private financial markets and institutions in the developed world has not received adequate attention. This paper describes some of the structural features inherent in today's financial markets that directly contribute to the instability in EM capital flows.     

Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention.