The Fisher hypothesis: examining the Canadian experience

In this study the validity of the Fisher hypothesis is investigated for Canada under both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. An empirically distinction is drawn between the weak and strong form of the Fisher hypothesis. The Johansen-Juselius (JJ) multivariate cointegration methodology is applied to test the weak form while the Phillips–Hansen fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) technique is used for the strong form hypothesis. The caninical correlations (JJ) methodology has the smallest bias and dispersion and hence is the best among the alternative testing procedures available. The FM-OLS procedure, on the other hand, allows for an unrestricted cointegration test correcting for both endogeneity in the data and asymptotic bias in the coefficient estimates. The Fisher hypothesis is soundly rejected.     

Non-linearity and Expectations in Niche-Development Trajectories: Ups and Downs in Dutch Biogas Development (1973-2003)

Non-linearity and changes in the direction of technological trajectories, are related to changes in cognitive rules and expectations that guide technical search and development activities. To explain such changes, the article uses the literature on niche development, which highlights interactions between learning processes, network building and expectations. A long-term case study on Dutch biogas development illustrates how these interactions explain non-linearity, but the case study also shows the importance of external regime dynamics. It is concluded that non-linearity and changes in niche expectations are related to both internal learning processes and external developments.     

Models of technological development and their relevance to advances in transportation

This study presents a general theory of technological development. In essence, two factors play an important role in the process of innovation. One is “learning” or acquisition of relevant production skills; the other is scale of operations of technology. The theory is applied to a variety of cases of innovation in the locomotive, tank ship, and aircraft technology over the course of time. It is suggested that the role of learning is far more important than hitherto recognized. In particular, development of new techniques is based on the rules of thumb rather than on the search for an objective optimum. The empirical results of the study further indicate that the process of learning in the development of transportation technology appears to have taken place largely in the capital-producing rather than in the capital-using sector. This confirms a conjecture of long-standing: at least in some sectors of the economy, all investment has the character of investment in R&D. Further, the role of learning is found to have been comparable to growth of scale. Thus, acquisition of production skills may well be an important alternative to large-scale technology. It is concluded that the process of technological change is appropriately viewed from the inside out rather than exclusively from the outside in.     

Measuring technological trends: A comparison between U.S. and U.S.S.R./Russian jet fighter aircraft

Measuring and forecasting technological change is a crucial issue from various points of view. This is particularly important in the case of weapon systems as this would enable technological performance and operational capabilities to be assessed in relation to potential threats. This paper measures and compares technological trends in U.S. and Soviet Union/Russian jet fighter aircraft by estimating the relationship between the first flight date and a set of performance and technical characteristics of these aircraft. From the point of view of technological advantage, we find that U.S. jet fighters were, on average, approximately 2 years ahead of the former Soviet Union/Russian jet fighters during the entire jet fighter era. Nevertheless, the technological advantage has swung from one side to the other during specific periods as particular models have been introduced. Finally, the development of 5th-generation jet fighters, in particular the development of the F-22 Raptor, has placed American technology about 20 years ahead of Russian technology, a difference that has never occurred before. This finding casts doubt on the ability of Russia, as the inheritor of the former Soviet Union aircraft industry, to match American technological progress in jet fighter aircraft.     

Diffusion of environment-saving technological change— a petroleum refining case study

This paper attempts a theoretical model (Section I) of a dynamic relationship, brought about by environment-saving technological changes over time, between output and water pollution. The improvement in environmental quality is studied in terms of adoption of relatively environment-saving processes in petroleum refining industry. This is done (Section II) by empirically fitting the Gompertz function or the growth rates of diffusion of the processes by the use of multiple regression equations. Social desirability of substituting the relative environment-saving process is examined in terms of social benefit-cost analysis (Section III). Thereafter, (Section IV) an attempt is made to find social policy variables which could be used in order to accelerate diffusion of environment-saving processes. The analysis concludes that both “carrot” (incentives, say, in the form of accelerated depreciation allowances for purchase of environment-saving process equipment) as well as “stick” (in the form of stricter enforcement of water pollution control laws) are necessary for inducing adoption of the desired technological changes over time.     

Learning by exporting and high-tech capital deepening in Singapore manufacturing industries, 1974–2006

A number of fundamental factors enhance the growth of industries’ productivity. Among others, the export-led and high-tech capital deepening strategies are widely adopted by developing economies. This article attempts to empirically investigate the extent to which both industrial development policies affect the Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) in Singapore manufacturing industries during the period from 1974 to 2006. Using the panel data estimations, I find that both development strategies bring about TFPG via nonneutral technological growth, and the former more largely explains TFPG than does the latter. This study captures the measure of learning by exporting by the lagged export intensity and therefore contributes to the literature, in which only the case of whether or not firms are active in export markets is conventionally employed. Methodologically, my main contributions are a more detailed treatment of (nonneutral) technological changes, and an alternative measure of export intensity.     

Do export and technological specialisation patterns co-evolve in terms of convergence or divergence? Evidence from 19 OECD countries, 1971–1991

Several researchers looking at the development of international export specialisation patterns have shown that there is a weak tendency for OECD countries to exhibit decreased levels of specialisation. This finding is in contrast to findings made by other authors, who found increasing technological specialisation. The first aim of this paper is to investigate whether these contradictory findings are due to a `real world' phenomenon, or whether the explanation is purely technical, by comparing the development of export specialisation to specialisation in terms of US patents, using the same methodology and level of aggregation. The second aim is to analyse the extent to which countries and sectors display stable specialisation patterns over time, also both in terms of exports and in terms of technology. The paper confirms that the OECD countries tend in general to become less specialised in terms of exports. The evidence is less conclusive with regard to technological specialisation, as the results are mixed in the sense that just about half of the countries tend to exhibit increased levels of specialisation, while the other half tend to exhibit lower levels of specialisation. In terms of country and sectoral stability of specialisation patterns, it can be concluded that both trade specialisation and technological specialisation patterns are path-dependent. In comparison, however, trade specialisation patterns are more stable than are technological specialisation patterns.     

Product variety and technical change

Motivated by growth models based on the variety of capital goods, recent empirical studies have established links between productivity and several trade-based measures of product variety, carrying the implication that these measures may represent technology. We study this implication by explicitly proposing the variety of capital goods available for production as a direct measure of the state of technology. Within a simple growth and development framework, we derive a ‘conditional technological convergence’ hypothesis on how this variety should behave if it were indeed to represent the state of technology. The hypothesis is tested with highly disaggregated trade data, using tools from the income convergence literature. The results suggest that a trade-based count measure of the variety of available capital goods, allowing for product differentiation by country of origin, indeed behaves ‘as if’ it represented technology when change of technology is understood as a learning process, and that there is conditional technological convergence among our panel of mainly OECD and transition economies.     

A quantitative model for the evaluation of technological alternatives

This paper presents a quantitative model that may be of use to the national development planners, investment funding authorities, and entrepreneurs, who are confronted with the problems of choosing the appropriate technology among many available alternatives. The model provides a systematic and analyst-independent methodology for the multicriterion technology selection process, which requires consideration of socioeconomic as well as technological factors. The procedure is mathematically straightforward and has the capability of integrating both objective and subjective aspects of the evaluation process, resulting in a unified technology measure as a guide for decision making. A case study is presented to illustrate the applicability and workability of the development model.     

A measure of total factor productivity with biased technological change

The paper presents a new measure of total factor productivity (TFP) that also takes into account the effect of biased technological change. With this methodology, we can distinguish the effects resulting from the introduction of neutral or biased technological change on TFP, called neutral factor productivity and biased factor productivity (BFP), respectively. The new measure of TFP also holds in extreme cases where only the effect of neutral/biased technological change is presented. In particular, the BFP component increases (decreases) when the productivity of the cheaper (more expensive) factor increases. Moreover, the TFP holds up to the modification of both units of measure and to the costs of factors. Finally, the intensity of the BFP is independent of the direction of the technological change.     

环境规制、绿色技术进步与绿色经济发展——基于长江经济带11省市面板数据的实证研究

利用长江经济带11省市2005—2019年面板数据，构建PVAR模型，检验环境规制、绿色技术进步与绿色经济发展间的相互作用关系，并引入脉冲响应函数构建环境规制、绿色技术进步与绿色经济发展的响应模型，从静态和动态视角分析三者间的相互影响程度。研究结果表明：环境规制对绿色技术进步与绿色经济发展具有长期正向促进作用；绿色技术进步对环境规制具有长期正向促进作用，对绿色经济发展具有短期抑制作用与长期正向促进作用，且绿色技术进步对环境规制与绿色经济发展的影响较显著；绿色经济发展对环境规制与绿色经济进步具有长期正向促进作用，但是作用程度较小。     

Localized knowledge percolation processes and information networks

Summary The development of knowledge within industries is strongly influenced by the network structure of relations among firms. Firms relying on localized knowledge can implement their technological capability not only by means of research and development expenditures and internal learning but also through the systematic absorption of technological and scientific externalities available in their environment. Percolation processes have been studied in physics as the outcome of two classes of forces termed as connectivity and receptivity. The former measures the number of connections in place among the agents in the network and the latter the capability of each agent to absorb the informations received. This paper applies the methodology of percolation processes to operationalize the implications for both the economics of innovation and for technology policy of the structural characteristics of innovation networks as communication systems.     

Poverty traps in a frictionless world: The effects of learning and technology assimilation

We study an endogenous growth model of technology assimilation through an adaptive learning process defining the accumulation of technological knowledge among both workers and industrial clusters. The assimilation of new technology and the arrival rate of innovations are both based on the distance from the technological frontier to the current technological development level of the country. We illustrate how, even if technological innovations become immediately available to all countries, and absent educational and institutional frictions among countries, differences in technological development levels allow for the existence of poverty traps leading to the economic stagnation of technological laggards.     

后发企业技术学习和技术能力增长的互动模式研究

技术学习和技术能力增长实现持续互动将会推动后发企业竞争优势的动态提升。本文通过分析后发企业技术学习和技术能力增长相互作用的过程,提出了两者的互动模式:基于平台渐进发展的互动模式和基于平台跃进的互动模式。这两种模式通过持续循环实现后发企业持续不断地发展。最后结合某汽车排气系统有限公司的案例进行实证分析,以期为我国企业技术战略的制定和调整提供重要的依据。     

Dynamic technological learning trends in Turkish manufacturing industries

Efficient development of industries requires a broad range of technological capabilities which can be acquired only by a long process of learning. Continuous measuring and monitoring of the ever-changing technological learning would be useful for building technological capability and managing technological policies. Nevertheless, research on how to measure the technological learning over time at macro levels remains largely untouched. In this paper, by adding the experience curve into the multifactor productivity part of Neoclassical production function, we will develop a model which will allow one to estimate the technological learning levels over long periods. This model would allow a user to both estimate the past learning experiences and forecast its future path on a time varying basis. The model has been used and tested in the estimation of the annual technological learning values for 28 Turkish manufacturing industries from 1981 to 2000.     

Economic Consequences of Armaments Production: Institutional Perspectives of J.K. Galbraith and T.B. Veblen

J.K. Galbraith’s short book, How to Control the Military, boldly championed political and institutional reforms to curb “the military power.” Galbraith stood out among economists for his advocacy of arms reduction negotiations with the Soviet Union. He rejected the hypothesis that the Soviet Union nurtured an aggressive expansionary military policy. At the same time, he maintained that the tenor of national policy and the shaping of national priorities emanated from the Pentagon. Galbraith’s assertion that the military was the dominant force within the “military-industrial complex” was never empirically demonstrated. Nor did he adequately address the crucial role that military outlays played in advancing major technological innovations which underwrote the accumulation process. Veblen offered a more comprehensive analysis of the role of military expenditures, correctly showing that forms of “waste” are highly functional to the institutional and ideological structure of the U.S. economy. Military Keynesianism constituted the evolution of his conceptualization.     

Assessing the Effectiveness of Technology Policy--A Long-Term View

Innovation policy is increasingly concerned with mobilising a broad range of resources to support the development of firm-level technological capability. It is aimed at dealing with 'market failure', which arises when firms are confronted with technological challenges in which they lack the necessary experience or resources. Both internal agency and independent evaluation of such innovation policies are routinely undertaken but most are conducted during the lifetime of the programmes or soon after they have ended. There are few examples of such evaluations being able to take a long-term perspective. This paper explores the impacts of a UK government technology programme on the process and product application of microelectronic technologies (MAP) that ran between 1978 and 1986. Via interviews with a sample of firms who participated in scheme, the research explored their subsequent use of microelectronics, government support schemes and expert consultants. The study argues for more regular long-term reviews of technology promoting schemes as an aid to learning and capability enhancement in policy-making.     

Vacant technology forecasting using new Bayesian patent clustering

Vacant technology forecasting (VTF) is a technology forecasting approach to find technological needs for given industrial field in the future. It is important to know the future trend of developing technology for the R&D planning of a company and a country. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model for patent clustering. This is a VTF methodology based on patent data analysis. Our method is composed of Bayesian learning and ensemble method to construct the VTF model. To illustrate the practical way of the proposed methodology, we perform a case study of given technology domain using retrieved patent documents from patent databases in the world.     

诺斯制度变迁理论方法论探析:修正的新古典经济学范式

关于诺斯制度变迁理论的方法论，有观点认为它以新古典经济学的“理性人”范式为基点。笔者不同意这种观点，笔者认为它属于修正的新古典经济学范式。这主要表现在三个方面：一、修正的经济人假设；二、非零交易成本假设；三、新古典经济学分析工具的继承。     

Screening early stage ideas in technology development processes: a text mining and k-nearest neighbours approach using patent information

Applying previous idea screening approaches to large amounts of early stage ideas is recognised as challenging since they rely heavily on manual tasks and human judgments. Considering that technological factors are more important than others in early phases of technology development processes, we propose a machine learning approach to screening ideas by linking the contents of ideas implied in patented inventions and the technological value of the ideas. At the heart of the proposed approach are the text mining technique, to construct keyword vectors from patents, and the k-nearest neighbours algorithm, to capture the relationships between the keyword vectors and the numbers of forward citations of the patents. Integration of these methods makes it possible to assess large amounts of early stage ideas in terms of their potential technological value. A case study of pharmaceutical technology shows that our approach is useful for filtering out ideas of little technological value.