UK Economic Prospects and Policy Dilemmas

Our current forecast, largely unchanged from that published in the October 1992 Economic Outlook, is for a gradual recovery in economic activity during 1993, gathering pace in the course of the year. Unemployment continues to rise through the year, and inflation remains subdued. The main risk to the forecast lies in the possibility that a continued decline in property values may check reviving confidence and lead the banks to restrict lending.
The principal policy dilemma lies in the very high level of public sector borrowing, likely to rise to around 7.5 per cent of GDP on unchanged policies. The Government will need to signal its willingness to act to cut the PSBR by higher taxes or reduced spending plans. This will allow interest rates to remain low for longer, and offers the best prospects of maintaining a competitive pound and reducing the burgeoning current account deficit. There is room for a further cut in interest rates in the Budget to boost confidence and recovery, but rates may need to rise towards the end of the year if the higher prices resulting from the sterling devaluation start to feed into wage claims.
The Government should also consider seriously the need for reform of the institutional framework for policy making, to help restore credibility weakened by the manner of sterling's departure from the ERM. These should include greater openness about official thinking on monetary policy, and greater autonomy, within a new framework of accountability, for the Bank of England.     

The Future of Japanese Manufacturing in the UK

The expansion of Japanese FDI into the UK manufacturing sector during the 1980s and early 1990s gave rise to the debate on the Japanization of British industry. The paper argues that this debate was constructed from a Western perspective. It did not locate the strategies and structures of Japanese subsidiaries within the broader context of how Japanese multinational corporations were evolving in this period. The necessity to look at these issues from a more global perspective is reinforced by the changes which have occurred since the mid 1990s in the environment for Japanese multinationals. The global economy offers more choices to firms about their location as well as facing them with a more competitive environment. In the Japanese case, this is leading to a growing differentiation between standardized mass production (which can be located in Asia and Eastern Europe) and science–led sectors of industrial production (which necessitate location near to centres of research and development expertise in the USA and Europe). This means that Japanese firms are reconsidering the strategy and structure of their subsidiaries in the UK. Standardized mass production will only survive in the UK as long as costs can be pushed further down and productivity increased, both of which are difficult conditions to meet given possibilities elsewhere in the world for cheap mass production. The growing area of investment will be in science–based manufacturing, though here the UK will be competing against the USA and Germany for Japanese investment. Here, however, the organizational and management characteristics of Japanese subsidiaries will make the necessary connections with local managers and local networks of expertise difficult to achieve. Thus Japanese subsidiaries in the UK are in a period of prolonged uncertainty about their role in the future. These changes open up the necessity for a new agenda of research which goes beyond the Japanization approach and is concerned with the organization and management of Japanese multinationals in an era of global competition.     

Prospects for the UK Economy

The prospects for the UK economy are the brightest for some time. Growth is above trend, inflation is low, and balance-of-payments pressures are benign.     

UK Consumer Spending: Prospects for the Late 1990s

Over the last eighteen months, strong growth of personal consumption has fuelled the growth of the UK economy raising fears of a 1980s style consumer boom. The boost to consumption provided by "windfall gains" from building society conversions has added to these fears. In this article, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Andrew Sentance and Geoffrey Williams discuss the forces behind this recent pick-up in consumption and assess the prospects for consumer spending in the late 1990s.     

Medium term Prospects for the UK economy

Prospects for the economy several years ahead are even more uncertain than projections of the near future. e overnment policy is currently particularly uncertain e iven that a general election is due to occur in the next 15 months. This article presents three 'alternative scenarios', one based on Conservative Party policies, the others on the spirit of Labour Party policies.
The first case described is our central forecast. It is a continuation of current Conservative Party policies. The second and third cases are based on our interpretation of Labour Party policies. These policies are assumed to involve widespread use of government intervention, planning, wage and import controls. Monetary targets are relaxed or abandoned. We consider two possible out comes of such policies. Under one outcome the policies are relatively successjul in boosting output and employment without greatly raising inflation. Under the other out comes, output is lower than on current policies and inflationt much higher.     

关于中国制造企业供应链核心竞争力的思考

探讨了中国制造业2008年发展步伐减缓的深层原因,由此引出对中国制造企业供应链核心竞争力的相关思考,并认为构建供应链核心竞争力是中国制造业走出严冬的重要途径。     

物联网技术助推中国制造国际竞争力

制造业作为我国国民经济的支柱产业,是我国经济增长的主导部门和经济转型的基础。中国制造在国际分工和国际贸易中占有重要地位。但随着中国劳动力成本的提高,传统中国制造的竞争优势在逐渐消退。文章将从产业链的角度探究物联网技术助推中国制造国际竞争力。     

Asian Economic Problems and Prospects for Foreign Direct Investment: Local Evidence from the UK

This paper explores the implications of the Asian crises and economic problems in the Japanese economy on a UK region with a high dependence on employment in Asian manufacturing transplants. The paper examines the development of the Asian transplant sector in the case region (Wales), and maps out the economic significance of the sector on the local economy. Following a review of the potential impacts of economic problems in Asia on the local transplant sector, the paper uses local case evidence to explore recent changes in the Asian manufacturing base in Wales. Recent reversals in the transplant sector have largely been caused more by local manufacturing conditions. The paper concludes with a discussion of factors that are most likely to affect the trajectory of the Asian transplant sector in the case region in the new millennium.     

安徽省装备制造业竞争力评价与对策研究

本文对装备制造业的竞争力构建了一个相对完整的评价指标体系,采用因子分析法对全国30个省市、自治区(不包括西藏)的装备制造业及其七个子行业的产业竞争力进行测度并排序。通过安徽省与其它省份和地区的该产业竞争力现状的对比分析,从强化优势产业,增强多方合作及提高自主创新能力等角度有针对性地提出能够有效提高安徽省装备制造业竞争力的对策建议。     

Market Orientation and Performance: Objective and Subjective Empirical Evidence from UK Companies

The link between market orientation and performance has been claimed largely on the basis of the analysis of subjective measures of performance. Consequently, the aim of this study is to examine the links between market orientation and objectively measured financial performance. The paper begins with a brief examination of the definition and components of market orientation. Thereafter, extant research into the consequences of developing market orientation is reviewed critically, leading to the development of a number of research hypotheses. After detailing the research design and methodology adopted in this study, the findings of a survey of UK industry are presented. Briefly, the results indicate that when subjective measures of performance are adopted, market orientation is associated with company performance in certain environmental conditions. However, when objective measures of performance are adopted, we see a narrower range of environmental conditions where market orientation is positively associated with performance. The paper concludes with a series of implications for both theorists and practitioners.     

长江经济带电子及通信设备制造业竞争力的动态评价

选取1995-2015年全国30个省市数据为研究样本,从发展环境、发展规模、投入水平、创新能力四个方面构建指标评价体系,运用因子分析法,对全国30省市电子及通信设备制造业竞争力进行测算并排名。研究结果显示:长江经济带沿线11省市电子及通信设备制造业竞争力排名分为三个层次,第一层次包括江苏、四川、上海和浙江4个省市,电子及通信设备制造业竞争力强;第二层次包括湖北、江西、湖南和安徽4个省,拥有中等竞争力水平;第三层次包括贵州、云南和重庆3省市,电子及通信设备制造业竞争力尚显不足。11省市竞争力排名动态变化幅度整体较低,安徽省动态排名提升幅度最大。为进一步提高长江经济带电子及通信设备制造业发展水平,要优化长江经济带电子及通信设备制造业布局,加强长江经济带电子及通信设备制造业转移与承接发展,重视提高电子及通信设备制造业自主创新能力。     

中国制造业承接外包对产业国际竞争力的影响研究

文章从理论上分析了承接外包对中国制造业国际竞争力的影响机理,在此基础上分析了中国制造业承接国际外包对产业竞争力的影响。实证研究结果表明,承接外包分工对我国制造业的竞争力提升产生了积极影响,但对资本(技术)密集型行业与劳动密集型行业影响程度不同。其中,对劳动密集型产业竞争力的影响系数为1.103874,而对资本(技术)密集型产业的影响系数为3.109623。     

Korean And Taiwanese Productivity Performance: Comparisons at Matched Manufacturing Levels

We compare the productivity performances of 15 matched manufacturing sectors in Korea and Taiwan, using the Malmquist productivity indexes, based on category-wise meta frontiers, 1978–1996. Comparisons at the sector levels are made using sequential multiplicative products of the indexes. The overall productivity and technology growth rates of Taiwan were higher than those of Korea. However, at disaggregated levels, the productivity and technology growth rates of the high-tech industries of Korea were much larger than those of Taiwan, while Taiwans high overall growth rate rested mainly on its traditional and basic industries. The leading innovators of both countries are also discussed.JEL Classification: C43, D24, L16, O11, O47, O53     

The UK and EMU: Lessons from Europe

Her Majesty's Treasury is due to report in June 2003 on the economic case for the UK adopting the Euro. One criterion concerns the extent of economic convergence between the UK and the European Union countries. Differences in financial, credit and housing institutions between countries present one important subset of constraints to sustained convergence (Maclennan et al, 1998) - largely neglected in the economic literature on common currency areas. These types of differences create tension within the Eurozone. Empirical evidence supporting these concerns has emerged in signs of overheating in the Netherlands, UK and some of the fringe economies, and in the relative stagnation of Germany and Italy. The UK's buoyancy, however, is accompanied by serious economic imbalances, with consequent risks of instability. These would be exacerbated should the UK be prematurely locked into an exchange rate and interest rate regime unresponsive to domestic conditions. There is much to learn from European experience: from Germany and Italy, on the consequences of illiberal economic structures; from The Netherlands, on some of the risks of liberal credit markets; and from Denmark, with a liberal credit market but rational property taxation. In this paper, John Muellbauer argues that convergence does not have to be fully achieved, if there is a counterbalancing policy instrument to mitigate some of the effects of these slow-to-dissipate differences. Specifically in the UK, a reformed system of property taxation would contribute greatly to long-term stability and the preservation of economic balance.     

基于DEA模型的陕西省装备制造业竞争力分析

随着新一轮经济改革和发展周期的形成,作为陕西支柱产业的装备制造业,将面临更大的调整和机遇,研究和认识陕西装备制造业的发展水平将具有着重要的现实意义。本文采用数据包络分析模型对陕西省装备制造业中7大行业的产业竞争能力进行实证分析研究,探求陕西装备制造业的整体发展水平。