Migration and the Right to Social Security： Perceptions of Off-farm Migrants＇ Rights to Social Insurance in China＇s Jiangsu Province

In 2001 China ratified the International Covenant on Economic,Social and Cultural Rights. By so doing the national government became legally bound,"to the maximum of its available resources",to achieve "progressively" full realization of the rights specified in the Covenant. Included amongst these entitlements is the "right of everyone to social security,including social insurance". This paper uses data from Jiangsu to examine the extent to which urbanites agree that previously disenfranchised migrants have the same right to social insurance as the urban population. Many urbanites fear that their existing entitlements to social protection will be diluted if social insurance coverage is extended to include new populations. Accordingly,state agencies and the media have sought to promote acceptance of a more positive view of migrant workers than has traditionally prevailed within towns and cities. We find that younger urban residents,urban residents who already have social insurance and urban residents working in the state-owned sector are more likely to agree that migrants have the same right to social insurance as the urban population.     

Analysis of the Adjustment of China＇s Fiscal Policy in 2005

The prudent fiscal policy adopted in 2005 is the result of adopting a series of measures to strengthen macro control in recent years. The process of implementation will be gradual.During this period, pushing forward reforms is the main focus of all the measures. Tax reform, social security system reform and rural reform will need the most emphasis.     

Analysis of China＇s Overheated Economy and Macroeconomic Policy Options

Based on macroeconomic analysis since 2003, this article holds mat a trena towaras overheating has surfaced in China‘s economy. China‘s rapid economic expansion has affected the quality of its growth, with rising material and energy consumption and imbalanced economic structure as the main manifestations. Regarding macroeconomic policy options in 2004, decision-makers should shift the policy focus from control of deflation to prevention of inflation; the pace of economic growth should be properly set; a balance between consumption and investment should be strengthened by controlling excessive expansion of investment, and industrial restructuring should be conducted in a coordinated manner on the basis of properly controlling the overly rapid indastrial growth; policies should be continued to boost exports and sustainable growth of foreign investment; and more efforts should be made to accelerate the change in the mode of economic growth.     

China＇s Labor Transition and the Future of China＇s Rural Wages and Employment

This paper contributes to the assessment of China＇s rural labor markets. According to our data, the increase in off-farm employment that China experienced during the 1980s and 1990s continued during the 2000s. Our analysis shows that migration has become the most prevalent off-farm activity, although the destination of migrants is shifting from outside of one＇s province to destinations closer to home. The present paperfinds that large shares of male and female individuals, especially those under 40 years, are working off the farm. These findings represent an important contribution to the labor economics field. First, the results of the present paper reveal that the labor transition from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector for key segments of China＇s rural labor force is nearly complete. Second, although a large share of China ＂s rural labor force work in agriculture, most of these workers are older men and women （and likely would not be willing to take low-wage, labor-intensive jobs）. Third, the rising unskilled wage rate in China is partially a result of the tightening of the labor force in the young age cohorts. Finally, due to factors associated with the one child policy and other demographic transition forces, successive age cohorts will continue to fall in absolute number in the coming decade. Assuming China＇s growth continues, we expect to see further wage increases since it will take higher wages to coax more workers to work off the farm.     

China＇s Energy Reduction Policy System： Outcomes and Responses of Local Governments

The paper examines the outcomes of and responses to the policy system （the ＂obligatory indicator system＂） used by the Chinese central government to induce provincial governments to meet energy-saving targets during the llth Five Year Plan. The institutional mechanisms underlying the policy system that promotes implementation of energy saving are identified. An analytical framework is developed to identify the strategic responses of provincial governments and the factors shaping their responses. Comprehensive sets of provincial data on economic and energy performance are collected and analyzed. The findings indicate that the central government ＇s credible commitment to implement the policy system drove the initially disparate attitudes of provinces to a converged outcome. However, the outcome is significantly constrained by provinces ＇ initial energy intensity. In particular, provincial governments have applied strategies of ceremonial implementation, efficiency-oriented efforts and effectiveness-focused efforts to attain specific targets. This paper discusses the implications in comparison with the modified obligatory indicator system in the 12th Five Year Plan and offers policy suggestions accordingly.     

China＇s Regional Disparity and Its Export-oriented Policy

This paper studies the trend of change of China＇s regional disparity using Theil index and finds that the regional disparity decreases from 1978 to 1991 and increases rapidly from 1992, but the inter-regional disparities always increase. Furthermore, we show that the export-oriented policies have made important influences in China＇s regional disparity. Under the existing polices and growth pattern of China, the interior areas have little opportunity to attract FDI and the regional disparity will not decrease unless China＇s government changes its export-oriented polices.     

China＇s Regional Disparity and Its Policy Responses

The fruits of China＇s rapid economic development over the 3 decades have not been distributed fairly across different regions. Using data from a sample of 815 Chinese listed firrns during 1998-2004, our error-correction investment model showes evidence of different financial constraints on firms＇ investment in different regions. We argue that China＇s regional development policies have contributed greatly to the regional inequalities. To control the rising inequality, China has shifted its focus from the coast to the interior regions. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the government to direct the economy, as market mechanisms now have afar greater influence on the economy than the government does. The people-centered approach of the current leadership has meant that substantial attention has been placed on regional development disparities in an attempt to build a ＂harmonious society. ＂ China needs further extensive reforms if all the measures for reducing regional disparity are to be effective.     

Research on the Stock Price Transmission of China＇s Monetary Policy

With the further development of the economic reform of China, the stock price in the monetary policy transmission deserves more and more attention of the experts and the scholars. This paper studies the stock price transmission theory in the monetary policy transmission, analyzes the problems of the stock price transmission in China, and in the end, puts forward some advice on policy for the purpose of exerting effectively the influence of China＇s stock price in the monetary policy transmission.     

People‘s Bank of China Unveils Interest Rate Policy Reform

China's central bank has unveiled its market-oriented proposals on interest rate policies. The People's Bank of China said that China's interest rate market reform would give priority to foreign currencies, rather than the Chinese currency. That means the day when the fluctuation of interest rates of foreign currencies will be liberalized would come before the floating of the Renmenbi rate.     

China＇s ApprOach to Rebalancing： A Conceptual and Policy Framework

This article seeks to develop a conceptual and policy framework for understanding China’s role in the global economic imbalances.China’s contribution to these imbalances via recurrent trade and financial surpluses corresponds with a phase of deepening structural risks to China s economic growth and development.These structural challenges include:the composition of growth resulting from China’s dynamic internal transformation,China’s trade orientation,the trajectory of resource use and Commissions,welfare problems relating to distribution and international constraints.This article develops a conceptual framework for examining the relationship between the processes of long-run structural transformation in China,its economic imbalances,and the role of institutional reform in dealing with these structural challenges.As such,economic policy should extend beyond short-term macro management to pursue an institutional reform agenda to facilitate broader structural change to mitigate constraints to future growth and to improve economic welfare.     

China＇s Urban and Rural Old Age Security System： Challenges and Options

I. Introduction In the process of economic transition, China has adopted an urban-priority reform approach in establishing its old age security system, which conforms to international development experiences. China’s rapid aging of people with low-incomes, however, is unprecedented compared with other developed or developing countries. The urban-priority reform ensures a relatively high coverage in urban areas, whereas it imposes a heavy burden ofold age support on rural households. Current …     

Effectiveness of China＇s Monetary Policy and Reform of Its Foreign Exchange System

I. Introduction The background of this research is related to continued disputes between China and its trading partners, and to the resulting international pressure on China’s foreign exchange (Forex) system. As the fastest growing economy in the world, China’s foreign trade has expanded at a fantastic pace and its trade surplus with the rest of the world is huge and rising. This remarkable success has encountered increasing criticism, whether correct or not, from the countries that feel t…     

Blue Box Policy Reform in the Doha Round Negotiations： Effects and China＇s Position

This paper uses an agricultural trade policy simulation model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of Blue Box policy reform on agricultural production and trade, and further provides specific proposals regarding China ＇ s reform position. The results indicate that, if the reform could achieve a reduction in distorting supports in more developed countries, China＇ s total agricultural production would increase, accompanied by a decrease in agricultural imports and a slight increase in exports. In terms of social welfare, producers would gain significantly, consumers would lose and government would not suffer greatly, which is in accordance with current agricultural policies in China. As a core member of G20, China should approve a subsidy level as low as possible required by Blue Box to achieve ＂substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic supports＂.     

China＇s Rapid Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Its Policy Implications

In late February 2006, China surpassed Japan to become the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves. Beijing is now faced with the growing challenge of how to handle these vast reserves effectively. Although China's soaring foreign exchange reserves indicate that its overall strength has grown, they have created internal and external pressures on the balance of the economy, and introduced risks to the financial system. It is estimated in the present study that foreign exchange reserves of approximately US$ 400bn in 2005 would have been appropriate under circumstances of a managed floating exchange rate regime and capital control. China's actual reserves have far exceeded its normal demand. The objective of China is to maintain an optimal level that maximizes net benefits as a whole. Four main policy options are available for China to achieve its target: spending and investing foreign exchange reserves, gradual liberalization of the capital account, diversification of foreign exchange reserves and a switch in holders of foreign exchange reserves. Spending and investing in foreign exchange reserves can be undertaken in combination with liberalization in the capital account, given careful consideration of the risks involved. Liberalization should be extensive but gradual so that companies and individuals can adjust to changes in financial markets and manage portfolios while avoiding unnecessary risks. (Edited by Xiaoming Feng)     

Enhancing China＇s Innovation Performance： The Policy Choices

Transforming China into an innovation-driven economy has been one of the top priorities of the Chinese Government. This paper examines the policy choices involved in the extended national innovation performance framework for creating an open innovation system. Innovation capabilities, incentives and institutional frameworks are examined. The paper argues that China should continue to increase its investment in R ＆D and in education, and that there should also be an attempt to strengthen the incentive system at the macro, meso and micro levels. This strengthening may include reforms to： release the power of competition and guide resources towards innovative sectors; adopt appropriate human resource management, such as appraisal and remuneration systems; create effective policies for research funding management; and evaluate the efficiency of research to encourage the creativity of researchers, managers and employees. The paper also discusses the space for industrial policy in the 21st century.     

China＇s Foreign Trade： Achievements,Determinants and Future Policy Challenges

Over the past twenty-five years, China‘s foreign trade has achieved great success. The main determinants behind this success include market-oriented reform, appropriate trade and exchange rate policies, and the active participation of foreign-invested enterprises. However, China is far from completing the transition in trade structure, and is facing many difficult policy challenges in maintaining its export momentum into the future.     

Viability and the Development of China＇s Capital Markets

The paper analyzes the abnormal phenomena in China‘s capital markets and provides a critical review of the existing hypotheses about the phenomena. The paper argues that thelack of “viability” among most of the listed SOEs is the primary cause of the problems in China‘s capital markets. The paper also applies a consistent framework to analyze the relationship among viability, SOEs and the capital markets, and makes some policy proposals for improving China‘s capital markets.     

The NDC Model： A Way to Resolve Moral Hazard in China＇s Social Security System

Since the mid-1990s, China has adopted a partially funded pension scheme in building its social security system. However, after nearly 10 years of operations, people found that the serious moral hazard problem of contribution defaults and loss of control concerning pension payment stemmed from this partially funded pension scheme. This institutional arrangement has also resulted in the so-called “adverse selection in non-market institutions”,which in turn is capable of destroying the current system. This article argues for the introduction of the Notional Defined Contribution (NDC)scheme, because it can solve the problem of moral hazard and adverse selection. Moreover,it can solve the problem of a lack of institutional conditions for the entry of the social security fund into the stock market. It is important to note that the NDC scheme fully conforms to the initial intention of the policy-makers who designed the partially funded pension scheme in mid-1990s.     

Japan＇s Bubble,the USA＇s Bubble and China＇s Bubble

This paper compares the three recent episodes of boom and bust cycles in asset prices: Japan in the late 1980s to the 1990s; the USA since the mid‐1990s; and China during the past decade. Although we have not yet seen a collapse of Chinese property prices, their increases so far are comparable to those in the other two episodes and a careful comparative study is warranted. The present paper first examines the behavior of asset prices, of property prices in particular, in the three cases, and highlights some similarities. The paper emphasizes the role played by extremely easy monetary policy in generating bubble‐like asset price behavior in the three cases. The reason for easy monetary policies is investigated. In the US case, the monetary authority was concerned about the risk of deflation in the early to mid‐2000s. The experiences of Japan and China are quite similar in that the monetary authorities of both countries were seriously concerned about the possible deflationary effects of exchange rate appreciation on the economy. The implications of such a finding for the future of Chinese macroeconomic policy are discussed.     

China＇s Penetration of the Korean Market： Stylized Facts and Welfare Effect

China＇s penetration of the world market has been impressive. This paper uses highly disaggregated Korean import data （from 1992 to 2008） to examine China ＇s penetration of the Korean market in the context of the composition of value （the extensive and intensive margins） and the product type （homogeneous and differentiated） in trade. The increase in Chinese imports has been attributed to the rapid increase in the import of new products （the extensive margin） and of existing products （the intensive margin）. However, the growth rate of new products decelerated in the 2000s. The growth in the intensive margin was due to quantity, not price. Chinese imports to Korea did not improve over the period in terms of quality. Although Chinese products became cheaper, they were more differentiated over time. Welfare gains were realized through the expanded introduction of new products from China. However, much of the gains from Korea＇s Chinese product import boom were realized in earlier years （1992 -2000） because even though imported products became more differentiated, the increase in the extensive margin was lower in more recent years （2001- 2008）.