Television Advertising and Beef Demand: An Econometric Analysis of "Split-Cable" Household Panel Scanner Data

The Beef Promotion and Research Act of 1985 led to significant increases in the generic promotion of beef in the United States. Widely familiar television advertising campaigns. distributed throlgh national television networks, have been among the most visible outgrowths of this vigorous promotional effort. This study reports the results of econometric analysis of fresh beef consumption data for households participating in a controlled, experimental investigation of the television advertising's effects on beef demand. While factors such as price, income and household demographics are shown to be significant determinants of fresh beef purchases, the advertising campaigns apparently did not increase, and may even have decreased, the panelists' demand for beef.
La Loi américaine sur la promotion et sur la recherche sur la viande bovine (1985) a entrainé un accroissement significatif de la promotion du boeuf aux États-Unis. Des campagnes télévisées de publicité très suivies, réparties sur les grands réseaux de télévision du pays, ont été I'un des aspects les plus visibles de ces vigoureux programmes de promotion. L'étude fait rapport sur les résultats d'une analyse économétrique de la consommation de boeuf frais chez les ménages participant à une enqueCte expérimentale, controClée, sur les effets de la publicité télévisée sur la demande de boeuf. Alors que des facteurs comme le prix, les revenus et la structure des ménages se réevèlent comme des déterminants importants des achats de viande de boeuf, les campagnes publicitaires ne semblent pas avoir accrula demande chez les foyers participants; ils l'auraient meCme dans certains cas diminuée.     

Open Economy and Processor Oligopoly Power Effects of Beef Advertising in Canada

A North American beef industry model incorporating a hypothesized relationship between beef advertising and processor oligopoly power was estimated and used to evaluate various advertising options faced by Canadian cattle producers. Generic and branded advertising significantly increased Canadian and U.S. beef demand. As well, historic generic beef advertising expenditure in Canada returned a net profit to Canadian producers. However, additional Canadian producer investment in generic beef advertising in Canada lowered producer profits, while investment in Canadian or U.S. brand advertis- ing or U.S. generic advertising generated positive net returns.
Nous avons construit un modèle mathématique pour le secteur nord-américain de la viande de boeuf, incorporant un rapport hypothétique entre la publicité du produit et le pouvoir oligopolistique au niveau du secteur de la préparation-transformation. Nous avons utilisé le modéle pour évaluer diverses options de publicité auxquelles font face les producteurs de bavins canadiens. La publicité générique et la publicité de marque ont procuré un accroissement de la demande de viande bovine tant au Canada qu'aux États-Unis. De plus, les dépenses engagées au cours des années au chapitre de la publicité générique de la viande bovine au Canada ont valu aux producteurs canadiens un bénéfice net. En revanche tout accroissement des investissements consacrés à la publicité générique par ces producteurs s'est soldé par une baisse des profits à la production, alors qu'aux États-Unis il se révélait en général rentable. Par aileurs, l'intensification de la publicité de marque s'est montrée rentable dans les deux pays.     

Bayesian Model Averaging in Consumer Demand Systems with Inequality Constraints

Share equations for the translog and almost ideal demand systems are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. A common prior on the elasticities and budget shares evaluated at average prices and income is used for both models. It includes equality restrictions (homogeneity, adding up and symmetry) and inequality restrictions (monotonicity and concavity). Posterior densities on the elasticities and shares are obtained; the problem of choosing between the results from the two alternative functional forms is resolved by using Bayesian model averaging. The application is to USDA data for beef, pork and poultry. Estimation of elasticities and shares, evaluated at mean prices and expenditure, is insensitive to model choice. At points away from the means, the estimates are sensitive, and model averaging has an impact. On estime les équations de partage des systèmes translog et de demande quasi idéale par la méthode de Monte Carlo en chaînes de Markov. Ces deux modèles reposent sur une prémisse commune, celle de l'évaluation des élasticités et des pans du budget à des prix et à des revenus moyens. Les analyses supposent certaines restrictions au niveau de l'égalité (homogénéité, addition et symétrie) et de l'inégalité (monotonie et concavité). On établit la densité des élasticités et des pans a posteriori. Le calcul de la moyenne par le modèle bayesien rend le choix entre les résultats de l'une ou l'autre fonction plus facile. L'auteur a appliqué cette méthode aux données de l'USDA sur le b?uf, le porc et la volaille. L'estimation des parts et des élasticités selon des dépenses et des prix moyens est insensible au modéle utilisé. Néanmoins, elle devient sensible quand on s'éloigne des valeurs moyennes, auquel cas, le modèle employé pour calculer la moyenne a une incidence sur les résultats.     

Optimal Generic Advertising with a Rationed Related Good: The Case of Canadian Beef and Chicken Markets

An optimal advertising rule is derived for a good sold in an open market (beef) when a related substitute good (chicken) is production rationed and whose imports are subject to trade restrictions. Such a rule is developed using a multi-market equilibrium displacement model that reflects demand interrelatedness, open trade of the advertised good (beef), with rationed production and restricted trade of the related good (chicken). The optimal rule nests earlier optimal advertising rules under a variety of conditions. Results underscore the importance of accounting for cross-product advertising effects. When these effects are present (absent), the optimal generic beef advertising intensity in Canada is shown to fall (rise) with elimination of supply management in Canada's chicken sector.
L'auteur dérive une règie sur l'optimisation de la publicité pour un produit vendu sur un marché libre (bœuf) en présence d'un produit de substitution rationné dont on restreint les importations. Pour parvenir à une telle règie, l'auteur a utilisé un modèle de déplacement du point d'équilibre sur un marché multiple illustrant les liens entre la demande des produits concernés, le libre-échange du produit faisant l'objet de la publicité (bœuf) et la restriction de la production et des importations du produit apparenté (poulet). La règie d'optimisation englobe les règles antérieures sur l'optimisation de la publicité dans diverses situations. Les résultats soulignent qu'il est important de prendre en compte les retombées de la publicité sur les autres produits. Au Canada, en présence (absence) de telles retombées, le degré optimal de publicité générique sur le bœuf diminue (augmente) avec l'abolition de la gestion de l'offre de poulet.     

An Ordered Tobit Model of Market Participation: Evidence from Kenya and Ethiopia

Do rural households in developing countries make market participation and volume decisions simultaneously or sequentially? This article develops a two-stage econometric method to test between these two competing hypotheses regarding household-level marketing behavior. The first stage models the household's choice of whether to be a net buyer, autarkic, or a net seller in the market. The second stage models the quantity bought (sold) for net buyers (sellers) based on observable household characteristics. Using household data from Kenyan and Ethiopian livestock markets, we find evidence in favor of sequential decision making, the welfare implications of which we discuss.     

Getting Something from Nothing: An Investigation of Beef Demand Expansion and Substitution

A relative increase in demand for one type of beef can have one of two potentially countervailing effects: it can cause substitution of one type for another and/or it might expand overall demand. The results of a random parameters logit analysis indicate that regardless of whether USDA Choice or upgraded steak demand increases, the expansion effect dominates the substitution effect. We also show that, for our sample of consumers, the introduction of a new "natural" steak causes a greater reduction in market share for USDA Choice beef than ungraded beef. Despite this result, however, overall steak demand increases.     

Demand for meat and dairy products by Turkish households: a Bayesian censored system approach

We extend the Tobit (censored) linear equation system procedure to utility‐theoretic demand functions, along with a mapping mechanism to impose the adding‐up restriction implied by consumer utility maximization theory—a theoretical restriction very often ignored in previous empirical studies with censored demand systems. In this context, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is applied to the censored linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) for 12 food products, using data from the Turkish Household Expenditure Survey. All own‐price elasticities are negative and expenditure elasticities positive. Uncompensated own‐price elasticities for rural households are generally much higher than those for their urban peers, though demand for most food products are own‐price elastic for both types of households. The differential patterns in demand elasticities between urban and rural households become even more evident (almost twice) as relatively more expensive foodstuffs are consumed, showing that accessibilities to alternative products have made rural Turkish households more cognizant toward price changes in foods. Household characteristics play a key role in food expenditures, notably so in urban areas, and regional and seasonal differences are also present.     

Deriving a Flexible Mixed Demand System: The Normalized Quadratic Model

This article deals with the specification of a locally flexible and theory-consistent system of mixed demand functions, a framework that allows for a rich set of possibilities about what is assumed as exogenous in a demand model. A coherent mixed demand system is derived by using the restricted expenditure function typically studied in the related area of rationed demands. The method is implemented by a new normalized quadratic (NQ) parameterization of the restricted expenditure function. The resulting NQ mixed demand system is illustrated with an application to a nine-good model of the Italian demand for vegetables.     

Measuring the Effects of Generic Dairy Advertising in a Multi-Market Equilibrium

We develop a multi-market equilibrium displacement model that allows demand linkages across downstream product markets, and supply linkages through the common use of a raw commodity as the key input. Applying the model to the dairy sector, we find that the effectiveness of producer-funded advertising depends on the demand relationships across dairy product markets (cross-price and cross-advertising elasticities) as well as the reallocation of milk toward the advertised market. We show that the previous literature, which ignores the horizontal linkages highlighted here, tends to overstate the effectiveness of generic commodity promotion for dairy, and thus results in too much advertising.     

四川省耕地生产效率及影响因素分析——基于DEA方法和Tobit模型的运用

运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法,对1999—2008年四川省耕地的生产效率进行测算,并运用Tobit模型分析影响耕地生产效率的主要因素。研究表明:10年来四川省耕地生产效率平均值为0.807,成都市历年来耕地生产效率有效值均为1;耕地生产效率较高的地区要注重规模效率的提高,而耕地生产效率较低的地区应加大技术投入力度;人均GDP、有效灌溉面积、劳动投入强度和耕地复种指数对耕地生产效率都具有不同方向和不同强度的影响。     

An Econometric Analysis of Total (Domestic) and Import Demand for Beef in Hong Kong

This paper presents an applied econometric analysis of total (domestic and import) demand for beef in Hong Kong for the period 1970 to 1988. The estimates are in logarithmic form and provide elasticity estimates for beef demand (domestic and import) in Hong Kong. Variables in the estimated domestic demand models (per capita and aggregate) include own price, prices of a substitute (pork) and a complement (rice) and income. Variables in the estimated import demand model include demand side variables (price of beef, price of pork, price of rice and income) and the price of imported live cattle as a supply shifting variable. The elasticities were inelastic for the domestic demand models while most of those for the import demand model were elastic.     

粮食调入省区粮食供求预测模型与分析

一、我国粮食供求能力的前景与粮食调入省区的界定我国近五年来粮食产量均保持在 5亿吨左右。 1 999年为 5 .0 8亿吨 ,较 1 998年略有减少。近1 0年来粮食供求基本平衡 ,略有结余。如从 1 989年到 1 996年粮食供求余额分别为 5 2 4.89万吨、2 962 .67万吨、1 2 3 9.82万吨、2 3 92 .86万吨、2 2 0 7.89万吨、1 70 0 .48万吨、5 3 81 .0 9万吨、5 894.7万吨。而进入“十五”以后 ,一方面 ,由于人口增长、膳食结构改善、饲料用粮、工业用粮等的影响 ,粮食需求增加 ;另一方面 ,西部地区由于生态环境建设的需要将推行退耕还林、还牧 (草 ) ,减少…     

Effective dimensionality and factors affecting crop-livestock integration in West African savannas: a combination of principal component analysis and Tobit approaches

Crop‐livestock integration (CLI) to improve natural resource management for increased productivity is evolving in Nigeria and West Africa. Processes in the evolution and factors that influence it still need to be well understood. This article proposes and tests a new framework for measuring the multiple dimensionality of CLI. The framework derives a CLI index using the principal components of its most common single measures; it develops geographic information systems (GIS)‐based village‐level ecological and market factors; and it estimates parameters of factors affecting CLI using the derived index as the dependent variable in a Tobit model. The framework is tested using empirical data from 634 farm households in 11 geo‐referenced villages in the Sudan savanna (SS) and northern Guinea savanna (NGS), Nigeria. Along a north–south (SS to NGS) axis, CLI initially increases, peaking around 11.2°N, and then declines. This latitude probably identifies the boundary below which disease challenge constrains traditional livestock production and CLI. This polynomial pattern of CLI is contrary to an expected linear increase along lines of perceived potentials for rain‐fed crop production. Household resources, GIS‐derived village‐level market factors, and institutional factors also significantly affect CLI. Ecological and institutional factors have most impact on the probability of adoption and use intensities of CLI. The incorporation of GIS‐derived market factors with household and institutional variables in an econometric model offers new opportunities for assessing patterns of evolution of CLI, comparing results across sites, and targeting recommendation domains objectively. A comparison with results from more common methods of running independent models for individual indicators of CLI shows that this new framework is an effective way of reducing the multiple dimensionality of CLI to gain quicker, well‐focused knowledge of the processes of agricultural intensification.     

Technology characteristics,farmers' perceptions and adoption decisions: A Tobit model application in Sierra Leone

The objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that farmer perceptions of technology-specific characteristics significantly condition technology adoption decisions. Earlier adoption studies have not considered this in the analysis of the determinants of adoption decisions. The omission of farmers' evaluation of technology-specific attributes may bias the results of factors conditioning adoption choices. A Tobit model was used to test this hypothesis using a stratified random sample of 124 mangrove swamp rice farmers in Sierra Leone. The issue investigated is the adoption of improved mangrove swamp rice varieties. The estimated model results show that farmer perceptions of the technology-specific attributes of the varieties are the major factors determining adoption and use intensities. Indicators of adoption determinants traditionally used in adoption-diffusion studies were found not to be important in driving adoption decisions. Therefore, there is need for adoption studies to consider farmers' perceptions of technology-specific attributes in the assessment of technology adoption decisions.     

结构方程模型森林康养消费需求因素分析

以计划行为理论为基础进行设计问卷,结合实地调研与在线问卷调查数据,运用结构方程模型研究现阶段中国居民森林康养消费需求的影响机制。结果表明:中国森林康养产业普及程度较浅,深度的森林康养内容认知与发展进展很浅薄;森林康养消费需求会促使居民的消费行为,而态度、知觉控制会显著正向影响居民的消费需求,态度、规范与知觉控制之间影响显著。因此,应设计多层次森林康养产品,鼓励森林康养养老,助力脱贫攻坚;提升居民参与森林康养的客观能力,奠定消费战略的基础;研究康养理论,推行康养理念,设计康养服务产品;政企协力推进,构建政-企-森-居-社会协调发展新模式,以便促进森林康养良好发展。     

Participation, Trip Frequency and Site Choice: A Multinomial-Poisson Hurdle Model of Recreation Demand

Data used in recreation demand modeling are characterized by the facts that trip frequencies are non-negative integers and that consumers are often faced with alternative destinations. This paper considers these features by estimating a multivariate recreation demand model that accounts for trip frequency and choice among alternative recreation sites using a mixed multinomial-Poisson hurdle distribution. The specification of the Poisson hurdle distribution at the aggregate level accounts for participation and trip frequency, and avoids the restrictive mean-variance property of the basic Poisson model. The model is estimated using data from Bighorn sheep hunters in Alberta, Canada. Simulation results suggest that changing price and quality variables cause substitution among sites. The welfare implications of changes in these variables are also examined.     

Labeling Context and Reference Point Effects in Models of Food Attribute Demand

There is considerable interest in the effect of labels on food product demand. Labeling statements may convey new information about attributes and place consumers in different choice contexts; consumers' assessment of information in labels may be affected by reference points. We examine labeling context relating to genetically modified (GM) food as a factor in the stochastic component of a random utility model and assess reference points over a set of observable characteristics of consumers. We find that labeling context effects are present, although relatively small, while reference dependence is a very important factor that varies over observable characteristics of the sampled consumers.