Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation

Although the real exchange rate-real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models, empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak. In this paper we re-investigate the RERI relationship using bilateral US real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978-2007. Instead of testing one particular model, we build on Campbell and Shiller [1987. Cointegration tests of present-value models. Journal of Political Economy 95, 1062-1088] to propose a metric of the economic significance of the relationship. Our empirical results provide robust evidence that the RERI link is economically significant and that the real interest rate differential is a reasonable approximation of the expected rate of depreciation over longer horizons.     

External debt sustainability and policy rules in a small globalized economy

The paper develops a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model which discusses the conditions that lead to an external debt crisis in a small developing economy fully integrated to global goods and financial markets. The focus is on how policy rules affect the stability of the economy. Two kinds of policy rules are discussed, namely inflation target and real exchange rate target, implemented through an interest rate operation procedure (IROP). It is argued that in both cases the evolution of the real exchange rate should be closely monitored to avoid external instability. It is also suggested that a real exchange rate target may be more effective to stabilize the economy if there is a strong tendency towards the equality of the foreign and domestic real interest rates.     

Wage–productivity differentials and Indian economic efficiency

A frontier-general equilibrium analysis with skill transformation evaluates the productivities of skilled and unskilled labor and potential of the Indian economy. We compare the wages of skilled and unskilled labor between 1994 and 2002 with their respective productivities over this period. Education is considered to be responsible for the skill formation over this period: the change in skilled labor supply is endogenous in the model. Compared to its productivity, skilled labor is underpaid in the initial period and overpaid in the second period. Unskilled labor is underpaid in both periods. A decomposition exercise shows that skilled labor gains from free trade, and stands to lose due to education and domestic competition in the second period. The annualized rate of return to education is between 7 and 10%. The economy operates below its potential in both periods, particularly in the second—due to trade limitations and the failure to capture the return to education. Service sectors are found to have potential to grow significantly.     

Globalization, the output-inflation tradeoff and inflation

This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the relation between inflation and globalization, defined here as trade and financial openness, using a large cross-section of 91 countries over the period 1985-2004. We establish two main empirical regularities: both higher trade and financial openness (i) reduce central banks’ inflation bias, yielding lower average inflation and (ii) are associated with a larger output-inflation tradeoff. This evidence is at odds with the standard Barro-Gordon framework, which would require globalization to have a negative effect on the output-inflation tradeoff to yield lower equilibrium inflation, but it is consistent with a recent strand of new Keynesian models emphasizing the role of imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Our findings also support the relevance of the time-inconsistency hypothesis, which underlies the theoretical models predicting a relation between globalization and inflation. For the OECD subsample, however, we do not find an effect of openness on inflation (the output-inflation tradeoff), suggesting that these countries have created an institutional framework for central banks that eliminates distortions due to the time-inconsistency problem.     

Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach

This paper proposes an alternative way of testing FOREX efficiency for developing countries. The FOREX market will be efficient if fully reflects all available information. If this holds, the actual exchange rate will not deviate significantly from its equilibrium rate. Moreover, the spot rate should deviate from its equilibrium rate by only transitory components (i.e. it should follow a white noise process). This test is applied to three Central and Eastern European Countries — members of the EU. Considering an LSTAR model we find no evidence of nonlinear adjustment in the misalignment series. So, linear unit root tests imply that the Poland/Euro FOREX market is efficient, the Czech/Euro FOREX market is not, while the Slovak/Euro FOREX market is quasi-efficient.     

Minimum wage, exports and growth

Using an endogenous growth model in an open economy, we study the impact of minimum wages on growth for an innovator country. We state that a minimum wage shifts efforts from production to R&D, but only in an open economy. Thus, it speeds up long-run growth in proportional to exports. Calibrations suggest the growth surplus can be significant. An empirical study on 11 OECD countries illustrates these results. The impact on welfare is ambiguous because the minimum wage induces unemployment. However, we show that in an open economy, a minimum wage associated with unemployment benefits can Pareto dominate laissez-faire.     

Optimal monetary policy for a small open economy

This paper focuses on the design of monetary policy rules for a small open economy. The model features optimizing behavior, general equilibrium and price stickiness. The real exchange rate is shown to affect the firm's real marginal cost, aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The welfare objective depends on the openness of the economy, and the optimal policy rule differs from that which obtains in a closed economy. The inflation versus output gap stabilization trade-off is caused by the real exchange rate. The implied optimal monetary policy regime is domestic inflation target coupled with controlled floating of the real exchange rate.     

Exchange Rate Unification Under Non-Credibility: The Haïtian Economy

This paper builds on three strands of literature—Early Warning Systems (EWS), parallel exchange rates, and collapsing exchange rate regimes—by addressing the issue of credibility in the context of unification of the exchange rate in the Haïtian economy. It takes the view that when policymakers are perceived as non-credible, economic agents resort to observation of the economy's performance to assess the imminence of reforms. They then readjust their own behavior, particularly in the area of asset holdings. This paper models the adjustment process using the EWS ratios. Data supports the idea that credibility of the reform mounts over time reaching 85 percent on the eve of the reform.Winston-Salem State University—U.S.A. I would like to thank Mina Baliamoune and an anonymous referee of this journal for helpful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are my responsibility.     

Inflation aversion and macroeconomic policy in a perfect foresight monetary model

This paper reexamines monetary non-superneutrality and the optimality of the optimum quantity of money in the money-in-utility Sidrauski model with endogenous fluctuations of the time preference by introducing inflation aversion. It is shown that the long-run superneutrality of the standard Sidrauski model does not hold, and Friedman's optimum quantity of money is not optimal.     

THE DYNAMICS OF LABOUR'S INCOME SHARES AND THE WAGE CURVE–PHILLIPS CURVE CONTROVERSY

Based on a re-parameterised Blanchflower–Oswald model this paper uses long macro-data from the OECD countries to discriminate between the Philips curve and the wage curve and examines whether there are any differences in wage dynamics between Europe and the United States. The evidence gives support for the Phillips curve and shows that wage dynamics are no different between the United States and Europe.     

Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America

In this paper, we study the link between real exchange rate (RER) depreciation and elections in Latin America. Our contribution is threefold. First, we employ a statistical model that takes into account the pervasive conditional heteroskedasticity found in financial data and includes a wide range of macroeconomic variables as regressors. Second, we test whether the wave of central bank reform that swept the region has had any effect on the existence or strength of the electoral cycle in exchange rates. Third, we test an additional hypothesis, namely, that financial liberalization may also be an important variable explaining changes in electoral effects on the real exchange rate. In a panel of 9 Latin American countries with available macroeconomic data and a history of exogenous election dates, we confirm the previous findings that real depreciation intensifies after elections even when modeling the significant conditional heteroskedasticity in these data. We also show, for the first time in the literature, that post-election exchange rates are significantly less predictable. We go on to test whether central bank reform has influenced the way in which elections affect the RER in Latin America. If reform has been effective at reducing political manipulation of the exchange rate, then any relationship we see between elections and the RER before central bank reform should be mitigated in the post-reform era. We find that the relationship disappears after reform and that post-reform real exchange rates are also significantly less volatile. Finally, we show that financial liberalization seems to have a stronger effect on the conditional variance of the RER than does central bank reform, but reform has a stronger impact on the conditional mean.     

Intellectual property rights, multinational firms and economic growth

This paper develops a model of North-South trade with multinational firms and economic growth in order to analyze formally the effects of stronger intellectual property rights (IPR) protection in developing countries. In the model, Northern firms invent new higher-quality products, multinational firms transfer manufacturing operations to the South and the Southern firms imitate products produced by multinational firms. It is shown that stronger IPR protection in the South (i.e., the adoption and implementation of the TRIPs agreement) leads to a permanent increase in the rate of technology transfer to the South within multinational firms, a permanent increase in R&D employment by Southern affiliates of Northern multinationals, a permanent decrease in the North-South wage gap, and a temporary increase in the Northern innovation rate.     

Globalization, rent protection institutions, and going alone in freeing trade

We construct a two-country North-South Product-cycle model of trade with endogenous growth and trade barriers. We remove the scale effects on growth by incorporating rent protection activities by Northern incumbents. We examine the effects of two forms of globalization - an expansion of the relative size of the South and unilateral trade liberalization by either country. We find that the location of rent protection institutions and the sectoral trade structure determine whether or not globalization raises steady-state economic growth. We demonstrate that for accelerating worldwide economic growth, contrary to conventional wisdom, unilateral Northern trade liberalization is preferable to bilateral trade liberalization.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PLANT DYNAMICS BY SIZE: KOREAN MANUFACTURING

A comparative analysis on Korean manufacturing plants is performed by size of plants and sources of TFP growth are decomposed into entry, exit, and survival effects of plants, focusing on the pre- and post-crisis periods. Additional survival analyses investigate internal and external determinants of the survival of plants. The results indicate that the exit of small- and medium-sized establishments (SMEs) with higher productivity is becoming problematic in the post-crisis period. The improvements in large-scale establishments (LSEs) after the crisis appeared to occur generally in high-technology industrial sectors; SMEs in low-technology industries are suffering from a sluggish market selection process.     

Is foreign trade important for regional growth? Empirical evidence from Portugal

The aim of this study is to investigate whether openness, export shares or trade balances affect regional growth in Portugal. Human capital is also considered as a conditional factor to growth, expressed by the rate of success in high school education. Thus, we analyse whether the combination of international trade and human capital is relevant to explain regional growth in Portugal and how it affects the convergence process between regions. In the empirical analysis, interaction terms are introduced to explore the existence of different performances between regions of the Littoral and the Interior. As an alternative to the traditional approach that considers the population growth rate, we include the share of sectoral employment aiming to capture labour specialisation in the main sectors of economic activity and measure its impact on regional growth.The empirical analysis estimates the conditional convergence model of the Barro's type, applied to the Portuguese NUTS3 regions for the period 1996-2005. The GMM estimation approach applied to regional panel data reveals that factors associated with external trade, human capital and sectoral labour share (especially of the industrial sector) are relevant to explain regional growth and convergence in Portugal.