An econometric analysis of demand for food quantity and quality in urban China

This article offers an analytical framework for studying consumer demand for food quality based on a theory‐consistent demand model, namely, the Exact Affine Stone Index specification. Importantly, it accounts for unobserved consumer and regional heterogeneity, and allows for arbitrary Engel curves. The empirical value of our framework is illustrated in an econometric analysis of demand for food quality in China. Evaluating possible structural changes in consumer food expenditures in China is of paramount importance, given the ever‐increasing global role of China and the implications of the structural food preference changes for the global food system. The major findings emerging from this study indicate that income is an important determinant of demand for food quality and quantity with the relatively more affluent provinces having a higher affinity for food quality.     

Structural change in the West German agricultural sector

This article explains regionally differentiated patterns of structural change based on a theoretical framework dealing with strategic interaction of farms on the land market. The main research question focuses on the causes of regionally persistent structures. An empirical Markov chain model is defined for the West German agricultural sector. The model is used to explain the probabilities of farm growth, decline, or exit in terms of the current and former regional farm size structure. Further, the impact of variables describing the regional farm structure, thereby indicating market power of the large, the potential of high competition for land within a region, and possibly high rents of the status quo in combination with sunk costs, is quantified. The results confirm the relevance of strategic interaction as a crucial determinant of persistent regional differences in the farm size structure over time.     

The impact of food price increases on caloric intake in China

World food prices have increased dramatically in recent years. We use panel data from 2006 to examine the impact of these increases on the consumption and nutrition of poor households in two Chinese provinces. We find that households in Hunan suffered no nutrition declines. Households in Gansu experienced a small decline in calories, though the decline is on par with usual seasonal effects. The overall nutritional impact of the world price increase was small because households were able to substitute to cheaper foods and because the domestic prices of staple foods remained low due to government intervention in grain markets.     

Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system

Rapid income growth and urbanisation could significantly change the composition of the food basket in many emerging economies. This study estimates a demand system, including 15 major food items in Vietnam, with multiyear household survey data. We find a large variation in the estimated price elasticities (–0.05 to –0.88) and expenditure elasticities (–0.16 to 2.56). Food types, urban status and income groups can explain this variation. We also find that the staple food, rice, is already an inferior good for rich urban households in Vietnam. Moreover, food preferences are evolving away from rice but towards animal proteins (fish, pork, chicken, eggs and milk), fruits and vegetables, irrespective of urban status and income groups. As the Vietnam economy continues to grow with a doubling of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next decade, per capita rice consumption in both urban and rural areas and across different income groups will continue to decline, whereas demand for other high‐value products will rise. Thus, government policy should focus on encouraging demand‐oriented food production. In addition, crop diversification at the farm level needs to improve substantially to meet the rising demand for these food products due to income growth and urbanisation.     

Diet transformation in Africa: the case of Ethiopia

Africa's food systems are changing fast amid rapid economic growth, emerging urbanization, and structural transformation. In this study, we use four rounds of nationally representative data from Ethiopia to document changes in household food consumption patterns over a period of unprecedented economic growth. We find that while the share of food in the total consumption basket is declining, food quantities and calorie intakes have considerably increased between 1996 and 2011. A decomposition analysis suggests that this was mostly driven by improvements in household incomes—a finding that is consistent across the calorie distribution. Also, the content of the food basket is changing with a gradual shift toward high‐value foods such as animal products, fruits and vegetables and processed foods. Overall, this diet transformation has important implications for the food security debate and for agricultural and food policy in the country.     

An assessment of the current structure of food demand in urban China

We evaluate the current structure of food demand in urban China by using household expenditure survey data from five provinces. Two complementary analyses are undertaken. First, an aggregate analysis based on a fractional logit model is used to examine how households allocate food expenditures across the food‐at‐home (FAH) and food‐away‐from‐home (FAFH) categories. This is followed by a disaggregated analysis of how households allocated their FAH expenditures across 12 commodity categories. A Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) is used. We find evidence of significant food purchase substitution and complementarity.     

The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost: some back‐of‐the‐envelope calculations

This article uses a sample of 72 developing countries to estimate the change in the cost of alleviating urban poverty brought about by the recent increase in food prices. This cost is approximated by the change in the poverty deficit (PD), that is, the variation in financial resources required to eliminate poverty under perfect targeting. The results show that, for most countries, the cost represents less than 0.2% of gross domestic product. However, in the most severely affected, it may exceed 3%. In all countries, the change in the PD is mostly due to the negative real income effect of those households that were poor before the price shock, while the cost attributable to new households falling into poverty is negligible. Thus, in countries where transfer mechanisms with effective targeting already exist, the most cost‐effective strategy would be to scale up such programs rather than designing tools to identify the new poor.     

Structural changes in the demand for food in Asia: empirical evidence from Taiwan

Many Asian countries are expected to undergo structural transformations in their economies and rapid urbanization over the next 25 years. The changes in tastes and lifestyles engendered by urban living are likely to have significant influences on food demand. Changes in marketing systems and occupational changes, closely linked with increasing GNP per capita, also may influence the demand for food. In this paper, estimates presented for Taiwan demonstrate that structural changes in food demand (as distinguished from changes due to income and price effects) have been significant factors driving the rapid changes in dietary patterns seen in East Asia over the past three decades. Because most previous demand studies have ignored the possible influence of structural shifts which are highly correlated with increases in per capita income over time, the effects of income on food demand have been overestimated.     

Unpacked and packed fluid milk consumption patterns and preferences in Turkey

The objective of this study is to investigate unpacked and packed fluid milk consumption patterns and preferences among Turkish households by using cross‐sectional survey data from 18,278 households. Based on the data, 47.8% of the households consume unpacked milk, 29.3% consume sterilized milk, and 7.9% consume pasteurized fluid milk at least once a month. Results of the multinomial logit model for fluid milk consumption behavior suggest that unpacked fluid milk preference is related positively to household size, income and age of the household head, and negatively to education level of the household head and status of the household wife. Similarly, pasteurized and sterilized fluid milk preferences are related positively to income and the education level of the household head, and negatively to household size and age of the household head. Results from these analyses are used to suggest techniques for marketing fluid milk products to specific segments of the consumer population.     

Consumer preferences for cowpea in Cameroon and Ghana

Consumer preference information is essential to targeting research. This paper reports an effort of a multi‐disciplinary team to measure the market value of cowpea characteristics. Five samples were purchased once per month in seven markets in Ghana and Cameroon starting in September 1996. In the market, price and vendor characteristics were noted. In the laboratory, size of grains, testa color, testa texture, eye color and damage levels were recorded. A hedonic pricing regression model was used. Results indicate that grain size is the most important characteristic. Consumers seem more sensitive to bruchid (Callosobruchus maculates) damage than hypothesized. Cowpeas with white testa command a clear premium only in one of the Ghanaian markets. In Ghana, black eyes sell at a premium, but in Cameroon black eyes are discounted. In general, this study indicates that quality characteristics are very important in West African food markets. Even low income consumers are willing to pay a premium for products that match their preferences, and they are vigilant in identifying products that do not meet their standards. Purchasing samples on a regular basis and hedonic pricing offers a practical way for biological scientists and economists to work together to measure these consumer preferences.     

Consumer demand for nutrition versus taste in four major food categories

This study addresses the trade‐off between nutrition and taste in expenditure on breakfast cereal, milk, bread, and soft drinks. Within each category, products have similar cost and convenience, but have markedly different flavor and nutritional content. Using annual expenditure data for a large sample of households participating in the ACNielsen Homescan system, we regress a measure of “healthiness” on household demographics and market prices, and find that households with college‐educated heads and higher incomes made significantly healthier choices in all four categories. These effects are puzzling in that the nutritional differences between products were well known to consumers, and there are no cost or convenience differences between them. The presence of children was associated with less healthy choices, especially for cereal and bread, while older households made healthier choices in all categories except milk.     

Quantifying land-use change impacts on the dynamic evolution of flood vulnerability

Recently, dramatic flood disasters have occurred incrementally in several regions of the world. Land-use change as one of the main affecting factors becomes a key component in flood risk management. This study strives to deal with quantifying how changes in land use to affect the dynamic evolution of flood vulnerability. The floodplains of Wuhan, which are located in the Yangtze River Basin, have been selected as an example. In this paper, we use GIS to gather different historical geometric data as sources of land-use information. By proposing the Simpsons-dominance index and location index to analyze the characteristics of land-use changes, and building a quantitative model to measure flood vulnerability, a series of flood vulnerability maps demonstrate differential flood vulnerability of floodplains of Wuhan in three inundation scenarios and four historical periods. Finally, the non-parametric correlation is used to reveal the interactive effect of land use and flood vulnerability. Based on this study, comprehensive flood disaster management strategies for land-use planning are proposed for government decision-makers to reduce the flood vulnerability of Wuhan in future.     

Informal government preferences and asymmetric land allocation in China

Whether governments have informal preferences toward firms when allocating land resources and the effects of such preferences on regional development remain unclear, particularly in countries with weak formal institutions. This paper investigates the government’s informal preferences in land allocations in China. Substantial evidence is found that politically connected firms are preferred to win land auctions at lower prices due to two different reasons. These preferences are informally achieved through a two-stage auction mechanism rather than formal bid preference programs, and result in the asymmetrical allocation of urban land in terms of land quality, quantity, and price, across politically and non-politically connected firms in China. The state-owned enterprises are allocated poor quality land parcels at 55% land price discounts. In comparison, the manager-based politically connected firms are allocated regular land parcels at 6% price discounts, and other firms without connections with the government are allocated regular land at higher prices.     

Determinants of food security in Southern Ethiopia at the household level

In the early 1980s, a paradigm shift occurred in the field of food security, following Amartya Sens (1981) claims that food insecurity is more of a demand concern, affecting the poor's access to food, than a supply concern, affecting availability of food at the national level. Despite the wide acceptance of Sen's thinking, many controversies including the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in causing and solving food insecurity have remained in academic and policy circles. This study develops a recursive household food security model within the framework of consumer demand and production theories following Singh et al. (1986) , and parses out the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in determining household food security in southern Ethiopia. Based on results of a test of full/reduced model and the magnitude of changes in conditional probabilities of food security, we conclude that the supply‐side variables are more powerful determinants of food security than the demand‐side variables.     

Implications of high food prices for poverty in Pakistan

The study estimates the impacts of rising world food prices on poverty in rural and urban areas of Pakistan. Household income and expenditure data for 2004/2005 is used to estimate compensated and uncompensated price and expenditure elasticities using the linear approximation of the almost ideal demand system. Taking the unexpected component of higher domestic food prices in 2007/2008, own and cross price compensated elasticities are used to derive the changes in the quantity consumed, food expenditure and impacts on poverty assuming the food crisis happened in 2004/2005. The results indicate that poverty increased by 34.8%, severely affecting the urban areas where poverty increased by 44.6% as compared to 32.5% in rural areas. The estimates show that 2.3 million people are unable to reach even one‐half of poverty line expenditures while another 13.7 million are just below and 23.9 million are just above the poverty line. In the short run, it is important to ensure food availability to these people. In the long run, the policy environment of subsidizing urban food consumers by keeping wheat prices lower than the international price, needs to be reconsidered to provide the right incentives to increase food availability.     

A cross-section analysis of household demand for food and nutrients in Tanzania

Undernutrition and malnutrition are still problems of unacceptable proportions in many developing countries. However, the debate on the roles of income and other socio-economic variables such as women’s education and household size on food and nutrient demand continues. This study examines the demand for food and nutrients amongst households in Tanzania, using recent survey data. A quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) is employed to estimate price and expenditure elasticities, as well as the impact of socio-economic variables on food demand patterns. A moment-based instrumental variable approach is then used to analyse the determinants of nutrient demand. The results show that income and other socio-economic variables exert significant effects on the demand for food and nutrients. The estimated expenditure elasticities for the nutrients range from 0.307 for iron to 1.26 for Vitamin B₁₂. The elasticities are higher for those micronutrients that are consumed through animal products and lower for those micronutrients that are mainly obtained through staple foods. These results reflect the higher expenditure elasticities for meat, fish, eggs, milk, and milk products, as well as fruits and vegetables, relative to cereals and pulses, reinforcing the assertion that the demand for Vitamins A and B₁₂, as well as calcium and zinc will increase with rising income.     

Regional obesity determinants in the United States: a model of myopic addictive behavior in food consumption

Obesity is considered one of the largest public health problems in the United States today. The premise for our study is a body of results from medical research showing that sweetened foods, i.e., an increased consumption of sugars, leads first to sugar addiction and second to carbohydrate addiction and increased consumption of fats. The latter feature is actually responsible for the increase in body mass index (BMI), but the trigger that produces cravings for extra calories is sugar and sweeteners. Based on our results, a myopic model of addictive behavior in food consumption seems to capture the food consuming habits and related outbreak of obesity among the American population. Our results indicate that lower current and past real prices of sugar contribute significantly to higher values of BMI, and increase the likelihood of becoming obese in the United States.