Non‐Linear Pricing and Price Indexes: Evidence and Implications from Scanner Data

Non‐linear pricing, the fact that prices do not necessarily change in proportion to size, is a ubiquitous phenomenon. However, it has been neither particularly well understood nor well measured. Non‐linear pricing is of practical importance for statistical agencies who, in constructing price indexes, are often required to compare the relative price of a product‐variety of two different sizes. It is usually assumed that prices change one‐for‐one with package and pack size (e.g. a 1‐liter cola costs half as much as a 2‐liter bottle). We question the wisdom of such an assumption and outline a model to flexibly estimate the price‐size function. Applying our model to a large U.S. scanner dataset for carbonated beverages, at a disaggregated level, we find very significant discounts for larger‐sized products. This highlights the need to pursue methods such as those advocated in this paper.     

Factor Price Equality and Biased Technical Change in a Two-Cone Trade Model

We reconsider the effects of long‐run economic growth on relative factor prices across cones of specialization. We model economic growth as exogenous technical change. Allowing for capital biased technical change with a sector bias and for endogenous commodity prices, we find that economic growth may increase or decrease factor price differences across cones. For a neutral demand side and capital biased growth in the most capital intensive sector, we find that economic growth encourages less factor price diversity across cones.     

The impact of China's millennium labour restructuring program on firm performance and employee earnings1

Around the turn of the century, China experienced perhaps the largest labour restructuring program in the world. This paper uses a new dataset of Chinese industrial enterprises to examine what leads to downsizing, and tries to understand the effects of labour downsizing on firms’ technical efficiency, financial performance and employee wages. We find that downsizing is more prevalent in state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), and is more likely when enterprises are older, larger and have higher excess capacity. For both SOEs and private firms, downsizing is more likely when the prices of their products drop, but private firms respond more dramatically. Moreover, downsizing has serious short‐term costs in terms of total factor productivity (TFP). For mild downsizing, private firms suffer more deterioration in productivity. The distribution of surplus after downsizing is more favourable to labour in SOEs. For severe downsizing, both SOEs and private firms exhibit lower TFP growth with similar magnitudes. Our findings imply that private firms emphasize profit goals, while SOEs place a greater weight on labour protection.     

DEFINING RELEVANT MARKETS FOR PHARMACEUTICALS

To identify the relevant product markets for Swedish pharmaceuticals, a spatial econometrics approach is employed. First, we calculate Moran's Is for different market definitions and then we use a spatial Durbin model to determine the effect of price changes on quantity sold of own and competing products. As expected, the results show that competition is strongest between close substitutes; however, the relevant product markets for Swedish pharmaceuticals extend beyond close substitutes down to products included in the same class on the four‐digit level of the Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical system as defined by the World Health Organization. The spatial regression model further indicates that increases in the price of a product significantly lower quantity sold of that product and in the same time increase the quantity sold of competing products. For close substitutes (products belonging to the same class on the seven‐digit level of the Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical system), as well as for products that, without being close substitutes, belong to the same therapeutic/pharmacological/chemical subgroup (the same class on the five‐digit level of the Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical system), increased competition is also visible after 1 July 2009 when the latest policy changes with regards to pharmaceuticals have been implemented in Sweden.     

Strategic Choice of the Price Structure and Entry Deterrence Under Price Cap Regulation

This paper shows that a price‐capped firm under the threat of entry in some of the markets it serves can strategically manipulate its price structure to deter entry. In doing so, the regulated firm uses the price cap constraint as a commitment device to an aggressive pricing behaviour in case of entry. A (dynamic) price cap generally entails that the prices allowed today are a function of the previous‐period prices and that the tighter is the constraint on each price, the larger is the quantity sold of this good in the previous period. Hence, the regulated firm may strategically choose its price structure before entry to place a tighter regulatory control on the prices set in the (potentially) competitive markets and to make it optimal to charge in these markets – in case of entry – prices so low that entry is unprofitable.     

PRICE DISPERSION AND DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. SCANNER DATA

I use the Prescott (1975) hotels model to explain variations in price dispersion across items sold by supermarkets in Chicago. The effect of uncertainty about aggregate demand on price dispersion is highly significant and quantitatively important: My estimates suggest that more than 40% of the cross‐sectional standard deviation of log prices is due to demand uncertainty. I also find that price dispersion measures are negatively correlated with the average price but are not negatively correlated with the revenues from selling the good (across stores and weeks) and with the number of stores that sell the good.     

Product line pricing in a vertically differentiated oligopoly

Abstract This paper examines the joint pricing decision of products in a firm’s product line. When products are distinguished by a vertical characteristic, those with higher values of that characteristic will command higher prices. We investigate whether, holding the value of the characteristic constant, there is an additional price premium for products on the industry and/or the firm frontier, that is, for the products with the highest value of the characteristic in the market or in a firm’s product line. We also investigate the existence of price premia for lower‐ranked products and other product line pricing questions. Using personal computer price data, we show that prices decline with the distance from the industry and firm frontiers, even after holding absolute quality constant. We find evidence that consumer tastes for brands is stronger for the consumers of frontier products (and thus competition between firms weaker in the top end of the market). There is also evidence that a product’s price is higher if a firm offers products with the immediately faster and immediately slower computer chip (holding the total number of a firm’s offerings constant), possibly as an attempt to reduce cannibalization. Finally, a product’s price declines with the time it is offered by a firm, suggesting intertemporal price discrimination.     

THE MORPHOLOGY OF PRICE DISPERSION

This article is a study of the shape and structure of the distribution of prices at which an identical good is sold in a given market and time period. We find that the typical price distribution is symmetric and leptokurtic, with a standard deviation between 19% and 36%. Only 10% of the variance of prices is due to variation in the expensiveness of the stores at which a good is sold, whereas the remaining 90% is due, in approximately equal parts, to differences in the average price of a good across equally expensive stores and to differences in the price of a good across transactions at the same store. We show that the distribution of prices that households pay for the same bundle of goods is approximately Normal, with a standard deviation between 9% and 14%. Half of this dispersion is due to differences in the expensiveness of the stores where households shop, whereas the other half is mostly due to differences in households' choices of which goods to purchase at which stores. We find that households with fewer employed members pay lower prices and do so by visiting a larger number of stores instead of by shopping more frequently.     

The Informational Role of Prices*

We consider a dominant firm with a competitive fringe in order to investigate the informational role of prices. The fringe is necessary for the existence of a unique, fully revealing equilibrium, in which the price reveals the quality of the good to uninformed buyers. A higher price triggers more sales on the part of the competitive fringe, reducing both residual demand and profits. We find that a larger share of uninformed buyers increases the price and reduces the quantity sold by the dominant firm, but increases the quantity sold by the competitive fringe. This, in turn, reduces consumer surplus and welfare.     

The empirical relevance of the Mises-Hayek theory of the trade cycle

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), as espoused by Mises (1912, 1949) and Hayek (1935), predicts changes in the economy’s structure of production following an unexpected change in monetary policy. In particular, following a credit expansion the theory predicts that: previously idle resources are drawn into the market, previously employed resources are used more intensively, and prices and quantities of goods in the intermediate stages of production decline relative to the prices and quantities of goods in other stages. To test the theory’s implications we employ stage of process data which classify goods by their distance to final consumption. Using this data we run structural vector autoregressions and isolate each variable’s response to a monetary shock. Consistent with the theory, we find that resource use expands on the intensive and extensive margin. On the other hand, we find little evidence of the relative price and quantity effects predicted by ABCT. Since the relative price effects are the distinguishing aspect of ABCT, we conclude that evidence in favor of the theory is, at best, mixed.     

The Canadian border and the US dollar: The impact of exchange rate changes on US retailers

This paper provides a micro‐level investigation into the impact of changes in the US–Canada nominal exchange rate on retailers in US regions lying close to the US–Canada border. Using a large data set on product‐level retail prices and sales in the United States over a nine year period, we explore the links between changes in exchange rates, cross‐border travel and the price and quantity responses of US retailers. This allows us to assess the importance of geography and distance in affecting the pass‐through of exchange rate changes into prices and quantities at the level of the consumer. We develop a two‐stage theoretical model of cross‐border travel and industry equilibrium for retail sales at the border. Our empirical results accord well with the implications of the model.     

Market power in distribution and pass‐through for consumers and producers

We examine the differential pass‐through of import prices into consumer and producer prices. We develop a framework with distribution costs and distribution market power. We then examine pass‐through from import prices to consumer and producer prices in the euro area using the U.S. import price as instrument. We find that pass‐through rates to producer prices are more sensitive to changes in distribution margins than pass‐through to consumer prices. Furthermore, only a portion of import price changes translate into domestic price changes limiting potential consumer benefits from tariff liberalization, with market power in distribution services being one important factor reducing pass‐through.     

Price and Quantity Competition in a Differentiated Duopoly With Network Compatibility Effects

We consider the efficiency of price and quantity competition in a network products market, where we observe product compatibility with network externalities (hereafter, network compatibility effects). In particular, if network compatibility effects between firms are sufficiently asymmetric, the Cournot equilibrium is more efficient than the Bertrand equilibrium in terms of larger consumer, producer and total surpluses. Then, we consider an endogenous choice of the strategic variables, price and quantity. If the degree of network compatibility effects of the rival firm is larger (smaller) than the degree of product substitutability, then choosing prices (quantities) is a dominant strategy for the firm. Thus, if the network compatibility effects of both firms are larger (smaller), the Bertrand (Cournot) equilibrium arises. Furthermore, if the network compatibility effects between the firms are sufficiently asymmetric, the firm with a larger (smaller) network compatibility effect than a certain level of product substitutability chooses quantities (prices). In this case, the Cournot–Bertrand equilibrium arises, which is less (more) efficient than the Cournot equilibrium in terms of consumer (producer) surplus.     

EFFICIENCY AND PRICES OF REGULATION‐EXEMPT CONSUMER‐OWNED NATURAL MONOPOLIES: A FIRST LOOK AT ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTORS IN NEW ZEALAND

Following the New Zealand Electricity Industry Reform Act in 1998 integrated electricity distribution and retail companies were forced to unbundle at ownership level, creating line companies and retailers. Electricity line companies that meet the ‘consumer‐owned’ criteria as set out in the Commerce Act are exempt from price‐quality regulation as of 2009. In this study, we examine the effects on variable costs and unit prices of the exemption by comparing exempt line companies and line companies that fall under the price‐quality regulation. The findings suggest that exempt line companies did not charge higher prices than non‐exempt line companies, and that they experienced a larger decline in their variable costs compared to non‐exempt line companies, following the exemption.     

PRODUCTION FUNCTION ESTIMATION WITH UNOBSERVED INPUT PRICE DISPERSION

We propose a method to consistently estimate production functions in the presence of input price dispersion when intermediate input quantities are not observed. We find that the traditional approach to dealing with unobserved input quantities—using deflated expenditure as a proxy—substantially biases the production estimates. In contrast, our method controls for heterogeneous input prices by exploiting the first‐order conditions of the firm's profit maximization problem and consistently recovers the production function parameters. Using our preferred method, we provide empirical evidence of significant input price dispersion and even wider productivity dispersion than is estimated using proxy methods.     

Competition and petrol pricing in the smartphone era: Evidence from Singapore

This paper examines how pre-tax petrol and diesel prices in Singapore respond to changes in crude oil prices using an asymmetric error correction model. We pay particular attention to the effect increased use of smartphones may have had in altering the pattern of price adjustment as consumers become more informed about fuel prices and as search costs decline. The results suggest that increases in the use of smartphones and tablets have increased the estimated short-term response rate but only for the adjustment of retail prices to decreases in crude oil prices. We find no evidence of a smartphone effect for wholesale prices indicative of the different roles played by consumers in competition.     

The relationship among enterprise clustering,prices, and productivity in Ethiopia’s manufacturing sector

We use census panel data on Ethiopian manufacturing firms to analyze how enterprise clustering in local markets covaries with firm‐level output prices and physical productivity. We find a negative and statistically significant relationship between the density of firms that produce a given product in a given location and the local price of that product. We also find a positive and statistically significant relationship between the density of firms that produce a given product in a location and the physical productivity of same‐product firms in the location. These results are consistent with the notion that increased clustering of firms generates higher competitive pressure and positive externalities. Across firms that produce different products, we find no statistically significant relationship between enterprise clustering and firm‐level output prices and productivity. We also find no clustering effects across towns. Our results suggest that while clustering can impact firm performance, the advantages are narrow in scope.     

Effect of Short‐sale Constraints on Stock Price Manipulation

This paper examines the effect of short‐sale constraints on the stock price manipulation of an insider, who is subject to mandatory disclosure rules. We show that the privately informed insider may manipulate by trading against his or her information when short selling is banned. We find that stock price movement is asymmetric in the sense that prices fall by a larger percentage than they rise. In addition, we prove that removing short‐sale constraints increases price volatility. Finally, we explore the welfare implications of short‐sale constraints.     

RESIDENTIAL PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY SYSTEMS IN CALIFORNIA: THE EFFECT ON HOME SALES PRICES

Relatively little research exists estimating the marginal impacts of photovoltaic (PV) energy systems on home sale prices. Using a large data set of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid‐2009, we find strong evidence, despite a variety of robustness checks, that existing homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without PV systems, implying a near full return on investment. Premiums for new homes are found to be considerably lower than those for existing homes, implying, potentially, a trade‐off between price and sales velocity. The results have significant implications for homeowners, builders, appraisers, lenders, and policymakers. (JEL R31, D12, C33)     

Prices and Information Under Imperfect Competition

Imperfectly competitive product markets cannot be informationally efficient as private information has strategic implications interfering with price adjustment. This is illustrated in a duopoly model with sequential price setting where private information either leads to prices not being adjusted to all available information or to adjusted but biased prices.