Social security and consumer spending in an international cross section

This paper expands the base of empirical evidence on the social security aggregate private saving issue by examining the behavior of consumer expenditure in 16 industrialized countries over the 1951–60 period. The results are mixed in that time series movements of social security exhibit a positive relation to consumer spending, while the cross-sectional variations reveal a negative association. Our overall conclusion is that the cross-country evidence provides neither empirical support for the hypothesis that social security depresses private saving nor an empirical refutation of that hypothesis. We argue that this indeterminacy of results applies also to previous studies of U.S. time series and to analyses of household cross sections in the U.S.     

Grain imports and food security in an unstable international market

The paper explores a decision theoretic approach to deriving excess demand functions for grain for food deficit foreign-exchange constrained developing countries. The form of excess demand functions derived is consistent with empirically observed ones. Different strategies to improve on the country's food security are investigated using the expected value of a criterion incorporating foreign exchange and the cost of not satisfying domestic requirements. The results indicate that, besides a drive toward self-sufficiency, by reducing variability of grain requirements with the help, for example, of domestic buffer stocks and by improving the domestic crop information system, a country can go a long way toward improving its international food security position.     

Social security and demographic trends: Theory and evidence from the international experience

The worldwide problem with pay-as-you-go, defined-benefits social security systems is not just financial. Through a dynamic, overlapping-generations model where forming a family and bearing and educating children are choice variables, we show that social security taxes and benefits generate incentives to reduce both family formation and fertility, and that these effects cannot be fully neutralized by counteracting inter-temporal or intergenerational transfers within families. We implement the model using calibrated simulations as well as panel data from 57 countries over 32 years. We find that PAYG tax measures account for a non-trivial part of the downward trends in family formation and fertility worldwide, especially in OECD countries.     

Reciprocity in the shadow of threat

This paper considers a partial equilibrium model of conflict where two agents differently evaluate a contested stake. Differently from common contest models, agents have the option of choosing a second instrument to affect the outcome of the conflict. The second instrument is assumed to capture positive investments in ‘conflict management’—labeled as ‘talks’. The focus is on the asymmetry in the evaluation of the stake: whenever the asymmetry in the evaluation of the stake is large there is no room for cooperation and a conflict trap emerges; whenever the degree of asymmetry falls within a critical interval, cooperation seems to emerge only in the presence of a unilateral concession; as the evaluations of the stake converge, only reciprocal concessions can sustain cooperation. Finally the concept of entropy is applied to measure conflict and conflict management.     

Changing the way employee benefit communications are produced: outsourcing, a more efficient, less costly process

Outsourcing may offer employers an efficient, cost-effective way to produce employee benefit communications. It offers a way to utilize the latest technology to produce personalized benefit statements or to target an announcement of benefit changes to a specific group of employees.     

Development and inefficient regulation under the threat of revolution

This paper considers a model of strategic interaction between a rent-seeking elite ruling class and a disenfranchised working class, whose ability to revolt constrains the elite’s choice of economic institutions. The disenfranchised are imperfectly informed about the economy’s productive capacity, an asymmetry which the elite may exploit to implement distortionary economic regulations to create rent in excess of that which can be generated in a relatively more efficient manner. Our main result is that, the manner in which the elite will extract rent depends on the economy’s level of development. We demonstrate that below a threshold development level the elite choose relatively inefficient regulation and above the threshold development level the elite choose relatively efficient taxation.     

Profit sharing under the threat of nationalization

A multinational corporation engages in foreign direct investment for the extraction of a natural resource in a developing country. The corporation bears the initial investment and earns as a return a share of the profits. The host country provides access and guarantees conditions of operation. Since the investment is totally sunk, the corporation must account in its plan not only for uncertainty in market conditions but also for the threat of nationalization. In a real options framework, where the government holds an American call option on nationalization, we show under which conditions a Nash bargaining leads to a profit distribution maximizing the joint venture surplus. We find that the threat of nationalization does not affect the investment threshold but only the Nash bargaining solution set. Finally, we show that the optimal sharing rule results from the way the two parties may differently trade off rents with option values.     

Invention under uncertainty and the threat of ex post entry

This article proposes a theoretical framework for studying the invention of new products when demand is uncertain. In this framework, under general conditions, the threat of ex post entry by a competitor can deter invention ex ante. Asymmetric market power in the ex post market exacerbates the problem. The implications of these general results are examined in a series of examples that represent important markets in the computer industry. The first is a model that shows how an operating system monopolist, by its mere presence, can deter the invention of complements, to its own detriment as well as that of society. The implications of policies such as patent protection, price regulation, and mandatory divestiture are considered. Three additional examples consider the ability of a monopolist in one market to commit to bundling an unrelated product, a pair of horizontally differentiated firms that can add a new feature to their products, and a platform leader that can be challenged in its base market by the supplier of a complementary product.     

社会保障的新理念与中国农民扶持性社会保障体制

中国的市场化改革使广大的中国农民直接暴露在现代市场经济风险下,而家庭联产承包制的实施又使改革开放前与计划经济体制相适应的保障体制无法运转,这样,中国广大农民成为了现代市场经济中最没有保障的弱势群体。因此,建立农民社会保障体系的意义重大。中国农民社会保障体制迟迟没有建立的原因有二:其一,传统社会保障理念仅考虑到其工具价值,忽视了其目的价值;其二,农民的组织化程度低,导致他们在社会利益分割过程中没有谈判地位。从建立农民社会保障体制的双重价值出发,建立保障农民生存权和基本发展权的农民扶持性社会保障体制具有重要意义。     

Versioning of information goods under the threat of piracy

The present study investigates the effects of piracy on the quality decisions of a firm that produces two versions of an information good: that is, one version for a consumer with a high willingness to pay and a second version for a consumer with a low willingness to pay. On the assumption that there is no quality difference between the original and the illegal copy and that the cost of the copy is constant across users, we show that the presence of piracy induces the firm to choose a lower level of quality of the former and a higher level of quality of the latter relative to decisions made in the absence of piracy. We also discuss policy implications concerning the socially optimal level of copyright protection.     

Volatility states and international diversification of international stock markets

This study uses a Markov-switching technique to identify the volatility state of international stock markets. Further, we consider four possible state combinations of the individual and world stock markets to examine an interesting issue regarding the relationship between international diversification and market volatility. Last, we adopt a framework based on the state-varying correlation to establish a more efficient international investment strategy. Our empirical results are consistent with the two following notions. First, the situation of both the individual and world stock markets during high volatility states will be associated with the minimum benefit of risk-reduction from international diversification and a maximum cross-market correlation. Second, by incorporating the character of state-varying correlation into the establishment of an international portfolio, we can create a more efficient investment strategy with less risk, or greater return for a given risk.     

The impacts of advanced information and communication technologies on international actors and the international system

New infomation and communication technologies have the potential to play a significant role in changing today's major international actors and in shaping the international system that is emerging after the end of the Cold War. This paper assesses the impacts that secen different information and communication technologies may have on specific types of actors in the international system, including states international governmental organizations, non-governmental organizations and multinational corporations. The paper then assesses the impact that these technologies might be expected to have on the international system itself.     

中国金融安全问题及对策

在经济全球化的条件下,中国作为一个积极参与国际经济合作与交流的发展中大国,自然无法独善其身,不可避免的要受到各种各样的影响与冲击。就中国金融而言,中国融入国际金融体系,参与国际金融合作,所要承担的风险主要有以下几个方面:     

Institutional framing and perceptions of fairness

This paper's goal is to construct a positive theory of economic fairness. Using the theoretical schema developed by Hurwicz and others, the paper makes precise the notions of an “institution,” “fairness fraiming,” and “institutional framing.” Four fairness propositions yield an important corollary: the economic environment, the operative institution and history give meaning to the often used FORMAL PRINCIPLE OF DISTRIBUTIVE JUSTICE (“equals should be treated equally, and unequals unequellay, in proportion to relevant similarities and differences”). We support these four propositions and corollary by an analysis of laboratory, survey, and anecdotal evidence. Finally we describe a number of areas for future research. The authors would like to thank Allen Buchanan, James Buchanan, Joel Feinberg, Elizabeth Hoffman, David Schmitz, Linda Schnabel Stizer, Vernon Smith, Richard Wagner, the participants in the Aspen Institute's Conference on “Local Justice and Fair Allocation”, the members of the Industrial Organization Workshop of the Department of Economics at the University of Arizona, and panel participants at the Public Choice Society Meeting for their help and comments at various stages of this paper's preparation. Responsibility for errors is the authors' alone.     

Changing the start of the hospital workweek

Essential to the success of a project of this magnitude were: (a) having the support and input of both management and staff; (b) clarifying federal wage and hour issues; (c) allowing adequate time for the change process; (d) determining impact of change on every hospital department; (e) providing hospital departments with necessary information, resources, and support to accommodate the change; and (f) communicating the change to each hospital employee in a timely manner. Can a hospital provide budget-neutral, flexible nurse schedules necessary to recruit and retain registered nurses? Yes, they can if they know how to do it. By redefining the workweek, Saint Marys realized an annual decrease of almost $750,000 in scheduled overtime expense for full-time nurses working 12-hour weekends, every third weekend. If health care institutions want the competitive edge in recruiting nurses, they will need to provide work schedules that are not only attractive, but also help ensure a positive "bottom line."     

Graduate nurse perceptions of the work experience

Findings from a longitudinal study on the perceptions of the work environment and job satisfaction for new graduate nurses in the first 18 months of employment at a Magnet Midwestern urban academic pediatric medical center are described. The findings indicated that orientation assisted the new graduate to become confident in his/her clinical competence and work management. By 18 months, the new graduate felt satisfied with access to resources and the ability to participate in professional development opportunities. The results suggest that the new graduate nurse's career adjustment extends beyond mastering clinical skills and includes a lifestyle adjustment to a profession that requires service 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.     

Yield management and perceptions of fairness in the hotel business

For the last two decades “yield management” (also called “revenue management”) has been increasingly employed in the hospitality sector in order to improve the yield from hotel structures. What’s more, the focus is progressively more centred on the customer instead of the room inventory. However, up to now, little research has investigated the effects of these practices on the relationships between hotels and their clients. This paper firstly examines the nature and the various aspects of customer perceptions regarding yield management practices, focusing especially on perceptions of fairness. Secondly, the paper analyses the variety of actions that hotel companies may design and implement in order to properly anticipate, face and manage customer conflicts resulting from perceived unfairness due to the use of the revenue management levers. Finally, these managerial techniques adopted by the hotel companies are considered in the framework of a business ethics approach. (JEL: M19, M31) This article is based on a paper presented at the 9th “Toulon-Verona” Conference - Excellence in services, University of Paisley, Scotland, 7^th-8^th September 2006.     

Policymakers' horizon and the sustainability of international cooperation

This paper examines the impact of policymakers' horizon on the sustainability of international cooperation. We describe a prisoners' dilemma game between two infinitely-lived countries run by policymakers. We show that re-election incentives can act as a discipline device, making it easier to sustain cooperation between policymakers with finite but potentially renewable mandates than between infinitely-lived policymakers. We also show that, when voting suffers from a recency bias, policymakers may have incentives to “collude” to get re-elected and term limits may help international cooperation.