States and Markets: The Advantage of an Early Start

In this paper, an index of the depth of experience with state-level institutions, or state antiquity, is derived for a large set of countries. We show that state antiquity is significantly correlated with measures of political stability and institutional quality, with income per capita, and with the rate of economic growth between 1960 and 1995. State antiquity contributes significantly to the explanation of differences in growth rates, explaining half of the differences in growth rates between countries like China and Mauritania, which are located at the two ends of the spectrum. It is also a good instrument for social infrastructure, which explains cross-country differences in worker productivity.     

社会资本、金融发展与经济增长--基于中国东中西部省际数据的实证检验比较

社会资本对理解转轨情境下的当代中国金融发展与经济增长问题十分重要。采用中国东、中和西部的省际面板数据研究中国转轨时期不同制度水平下社会资本、金融发展及其联合效应对经济增长的影响。实证研究表明,正规金融的发展促进了经济增长,而社会资本对中国经济增长则具有显著的负影响。社会资本与正规金融发展的联合效应在东部和西部地区有利于经济增长,但非正规金融与社会资本的联合效应则不利于经济增长,并且制度越完善,这种负面效应越明显。因此,在深化制度改革和金融发展的同时,应注重社会资本结构优化和平衡,规范非正规金融发展。     

Institutional obstacles to African economic development: State, ethnicity, and custom

To account for the African growth tragedy and, in particular, for its causes rooted in governance problems, the institutional legacy that African countries inherited from pre-colonial and colonial times must be considered. Three aspects are examined here. First, the relationship between ethnicity and state performance is bi-directional: if strong ethno-regional identities prevent the emergence of modern citizenship, they themselves constitute an endogenous outcome of continuous state failures. Second, the persistence of informal rules and social norms causes legal dualism, which undermines the credibility of modern statutory law. Third, social customs and norms that hinder socio-economic differentiation and individual capital accumulation lower the performance of indigenous enterprises.     

To Trust or to Control: Informal Value Transfer Systems and Computational Analysis in Institutional Economics

This article illustrates the usefulness of computational methods for the investigation of institutions. As an example, we use a computational agent-based model to study the role of general trust and social control in informal value transfer systems (IVTS). We find that the terms of interaction between general trust and social control have an impact on how IVTS work, become stable, and prove highly effective. The case shows how computational models may help (i) to operationalize institutional theory and to clarify the functioning of institutions; (ii) to test the logical consistency of alternative hypotheses about institutions; and (iii) to relate institutionalist theory with other paradigms and to practice an interested pluralism.     

“政治学的诺贝尔奖”与当代比较政治学的科学追求——亚当·卓沃尔斯基关于民主与发展的研究介绍

亚当·卓沃尔斯基在研究国家经济发展水平与民主转型之间的关系方面做出了杰出贡献,因而获得2010年度约翰·斯凯特政治科学奖。主要贡献表现为以下三方面：第一,就民主体制的生成问题,他的研究打破了在研究民主转型问题上的经济决定论的迷思,并验证了民主体制在生存问题上对经济发展水平的依赖性。第二,就政治体制对经济发展的影响问题,他的研究表明在大规模的跨国比较分析中,看不出不同的政治体制（民主的或非民主的）对经济发展有什么系统的影响。第三,从根本上改变了比较研究的分析思路,把比较政治学分析从过去着重于类别比较分析,提高到重视科学检验一般性理论陈述的境界,而且强调重视选择偏差机制对样本分布的影响,从而科学地分析表象后面深层的因果关系问题。     

货币、货币化与萧条时期的货币供给——20世纪30年代中国经济走出困局回顾

近代中国货币供应结构的改变(存款比例增大)解决了现金货币供应不足的问题.文章测算了20世纪30年代中国经济的货币化程度,认为它是稳步增长的.在世界经济危机波及中国的情况下,主要依靠中国、交通两银行等核心金融机构力挺工商业的带头示范和同业合作,以及政府对中交两行接管初期的某种督促,保持了货币供给的增加,使中国市场较快走出困境;但政府统制金融的另一面则是扼杀了市场的活力,缺乏制约政府行为的配套改革,因此在取得成果的同时也埋下了非常不利的伏笔.     

The Needham puzzle,the Weber question,and China's miracle: Long-term performance since the Sung dynasty

This paper attempts a brief overview of China's economic performance since the Sung dynasty. It discusses Chinese long economic stagnation since the Sung dynasty and explores the reasons why it was quickly lagging behind western countries from the 1800s. It explains why the industrialization and modernization led by Chinese government from 1949 to 1978 failed in narrowing the gap between China and the developed countries. It examines Chinese rapid economic growth during its reform and opening up period.     

Interrelationships among banks,stock markets and economic growth: an empirical investigation

This article utilizes a simultaneous equations model to study the relationships among economic growth, banking and stock market development. In contrast to conventional instrumental variable approach, we implement the analysis via the methodology of identification through heteroscedasticity. Using Beck and Levine (2004 Beck, T. and Levine, R. (2004) Stock markets, banks and growth:panel evidence, Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 423–42.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) dataset, we find that each of the three variables interacts in important ways. While both are conducive to economic growth, banking development matters more for growth in low-income countries and stock market development is more favourable to growth in high-income or low-inflation ones. The data also reveal coexistence of a positive effect of banking development on stock market development and a negative effect of stock market development on banking development. Besides, the feedback effects of growth on both banking and stock market development are found.     

经济地理、新经济地理、产业政策与文化产业集聚:基于省级空间面板模型的分析

笔者基于新经济地理学分析框架,采用空间面板计量模型,利用1999年～2008年省级相关数据,对中国文化产业集聚影响因素及其溢出效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:沿海区位和文化资源禀赋优势促进了文化产业集聚;人力资本、交通通信、文化消费的提高也有利于文化产业集聚;政府财政支持对文化产业集聚有正面影响;文化产业集聚存在空间正溢出效应。     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries

ABSTRACT

We investigate the causal relationship between public debt ratios and economic growth rates for 31 EU and OECD countries. We estimate a panel VAR model that incorporates the long-term real interest rate on government bonds as a vehicle to transmit shocks in both the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate. We find no causal link from public debt to growth, irrespective of the levels of the public debt ratio. Rather, we find a causal relationship from growth to public debt. In high-debt countries, the direct negative impact of growth on public debt is enhanced by an increase in the long-term real interest rate, which in its turn decreases interest-sensitive demand and leads to a further increase in the public debt ratio.     

比较优势和“资源诅咒”悖论与资源富集地区经济增长路径选择——基于对中国地区间经济增长差异原因的扩展分析

中国地区经济增长差距的原因可主要归结为,由于自然地理条件、人口集聚规模、制度因素的地区差异,导致各地区在劳动力、资本、技术等生产要素集聚及要素配置方面出现差剐,"资源诅咒"并非是导致地区经济差距的原因.因此,具备自然资源比较优势的地区应该充分利用自身的资源禀赋,不断推动自然资本优势向物质资本、人力资本优势的转化,通过将资源租金用于教育、基础设施建设和推动城镇化进程,缩小地区间地理区住、人口集聚规模的差异,实现地区经济增长的渐进收敛.     

再现与传承:基于非物质文化景观的区域旅游开发——以龙镇《红灯记》文化旅游区为例

随着目前国内经济的高速发展,文化旅游以其特有的文化内涵和文化氛围受到越来越多的游客重视和青睐。作为文化旅游的重要组成部分——非物质文化景观的多样性不断遭到破坏。科学合理的开发建设对于非物质文化景观的保护与传承,以及基于非物质文化景观的区域旅游发展尤为重要。以龙镇《红灯记》文化旅游区为例,根据区域旅游资源的评价与客源市场的分析结果,结合旅游规划AVC三力理论——即吸引力(A)、生命力(V)、承载力(C),分别从开发建设理念、产品体系的打造、意境流规划、旅游服务设施规划建设等方面提出了规划的方案和实施建议,为基于非物质文化景观的区域旅游开发和可持续发展提供借鉴。     

生态文明和"两型社会"背景下人口、资源与环境相协调的途径——以长株潭城市群建设为例

人口、资源与环境之间的关系问题是建设生态文明和"两型社会"的核心议题.本文指出,立足本地实际,发展循环经济与建设生态城市并举,有机整合制度、技术、人力、资金和物质资源等要素,合理运用经济、法律和教育等手段,充分发挥市场、政府和其他部门组织等多方作用,是长株潭城市群建设进程中实现人口、资源与环境相协调,进而助推区域经济、社会健康发展的有效途径.     

Capital Mobility, Agglomeration and Corporate Tax Rates: Is the Race to the Bottom for Real?

Based on a data set for 19 OECD countries for the period 1981–2001,we estimate the impact of FDI on corporate tax rates, wherechanges in FDI are a measure for changes in capital mobility.So far the literature has been concerned with the related butrather different question as to the sensitivity of FDI to taxrates. Our article takes an opposite perspective and asks whatthe impact of capital mobility is on corporate tax rates. Indoing so, we explicitly take the role of agglomeration intoaccount. In theory, core countries can afford a higher tax ratecompared to peripheral countries. In our estimation strategy,we instrument capital mobility to deal with reverse causality.The main conclusion is that increased international capitalmobility, measured by FDI flows, implies a lower corporate taxrate. But we also find that agglomeration matters: core countrieshave a higher corporate tax rate than peripheral countries.If there is a race to the bottom, it seems that it is more realfor some countries than others. (JEL code: H25)     

Using Tradeable Permits to Achieve Sustainability in the World's Large Cities: Policy Design Issues and Efficiency Conditions for Controlling Vehicle Emissions, Congestion and Urban Decentralization with an Application to Mexico City

Many large cities in the world have serious ground level ozone problems, largely the product of vehicular emissions and thus the argued unsustainability of current urban growth patterns is frequently blamed on unrestricted private vehicle use. This article reviews Mexico City's experience with vehicle use restrictions as an emissions control program and develops the conditions for optimal quantitative restrictions on vehicle use and for complementary abatement technologies. The stochastic nature of air pollution outcomes is modelled explicitly in both the static and dynamic formulations of the control problem, in which for the first time in the literature the use of tradeable vehicle use permits is proposed as a cost-effective complement to technological abatement for mobile emissions control. This control regime gives the authorities a broader and more flexible set of instruments with which to deal more effectively with vehicle emissions, and with seasonal and stochastic variation of air quality outcomes. The market in tradeable vehicle use permits would be very competitive with low transactions costs. This control policy would have very favorable impacts on air quality, vehicle congestion and on urban form and development. Given the general political resistance to environmental taxes, this program could constitute a workable and politically palatable set of policies for controlling greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector.     

Where they go,what they do and why it matters: the importance of geographic accessibility and social class for decisions relating to higher education institution type,degree level and field of study

This article considers the impact of geographic accessibility and social class on school leavers when making decisions relating to higher education institution (HEI) type, degree level and field of study. Using a novel and comprehensive Irish data set, we consider a number of joint decisions facing school leavers in relation to where and what to study and employ a range of bivariate choice models which allows us to control for correlations in these decisions. We find that geographic accessibility and social class play an important role in determining outcomes relating to HEI type, degree level and field of study. We argue that these decisions are important in terms of future labour market and other outcomes for school leavers and that current policy in Ireland does not go far enough in mitigating the impact of distance and socio-economic barriers on these outcomes.