产权、金融稳定政策与中央银行独立性

本文从产权角度出发,建立中央银行和金融机构的微观行为模型,通过分析和考察理论模型和现实情况,认为在中国当前金融稳定政策的框架下,由于中央银行与微观金融机构事实上的产权关系,其货币稳定和金融稳定职能均受制于微观金融机构,独立性受到损害.为了保持中央银行的独立性,必须切断其与微观金融机构的产权关系.     

The Effectiveness of Incomes Policies, in Australia Bargaining and Inflation Targetting Enterprise

This paper updates earlier estimates that show the existence of a range of equilibrium rates of unemployment in Australia. Within the range of equilibria framework, the paper goes on to test the effectiveness of incomes policies, enterprise bargaining and inflation-target based monetary policy for influencing the rate of inflation in Australia in the period 1965 to 2001. Incomes policies, especially the Accord, and enterprise bargaining are shown to have caused permanent reductions in the rate of inflation. The inflation-target based monetary policy is shown to be associated with, but is not shown to have caused, a reduced impact on inflation of changes in the level of activity.     

Economic Stabilization and Inflation

The climate change issue imposes us not only to change the way we produce and convert energy but also to modify current energy consumption patterns. A substantial body of literature has shown that our behavior is often guided by habits. The existence of habits - not fully conscious forms of behavior - is important as it contradicts rational choice theory. Their presence thus calls for the setting of new instruments as it is difficult to expect consumers to be capable of exercising control over their consumption of energy in reaction to given incentives. This is further increased in our perspective where the current carbon-based Socio-Technical System constrains and shapes consumers' choices through structural, cultural, social and institutional forces. Habits being potentially "counterintentional," can be considered as a form of behavioral lock-in that may explain continued increase of energy consumption. Policies should thus specifically address the performance context of habits.     

城市化、城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距

基于 1 987— 2 0 0 1年间省级面板数据的估计结果显示 ,城市化对降低统计上的城乡收入差距有显著的作用。而地区间人口户籍转换、经济开放、非国有化和政府对经济活动的参与都是拉开城乡收入差距的因素。政府财政支出的结构也对城乡收入差距有显著的影响。研究结果表明 ,中国持续扩大的城乡收入差距与地方政府实施的带有城市倾向的经济政策有关。     

Do Incomes Policies Restrain Wage Inflation? Some Evidence From Australia,Canada, and the United States*

The purpose of this paper is to reassess the impact of incomes policies on wages in Australia, Canada and the United States. These countries differ in institutional arrangements as well as in the form and timing of incomes policies adopted. Three methods of assessing the effect of incomes policies have been used: the simulation approach, the intercept-shift dummy variable approach, and the rotation approach. The results indicate that incomes policies exhibited considerable diversity in the effectiveness among the three countries. The results also show a consistent restraining influence of labour market variables on wage inflation.     

利益群体、制度和区域特点--中国地方经济政策的解释

如何解释中国各省区在投资环境上表现出来的差异?有三个主要原因是值得重视的：当地经济利益群体的规模和特点的差异、中央政府政策中的地位以及改革前的区域特征和传统。前两个原因，可以从统计资料得到支持，而中央政策变动的影响却缺乏相应的证据。因此，为了更好地理解利益群体压力和地区特征的综合影响作用，要做进一步的统计检验和案例研究。     

沉淀成本、跨国公司与政府经济政策选择

如果跨国公司投资没有沉淀成本，无论东道国实行什么样的经济政策，跨国公司都会很自由地进出该国；但如果跨国公司投资有沉淀成本，尽管东道国实行硬经济政策获取大部分经济剩余，但跨国公司就会将产品的生产与销售转移到软经济政策的国家。在现实生活中，由于跨国公司的投资具有沉淀性，此时，国家之间为了吸引跨国公司的投资在经济政策方面的竞争将会促进跨国公司的发展，从而带来整个世界经济福利水平的提高。     

发展方式、经济脆弱性与宏观政策

一、当前发展方式的基本特征 要从发展方式的视角来观察当前的经济形势,有必要简单地勾画一下当前我国发展方式的基本特征.我国经济发展方式是粗放的,"广种薄收",靠高投入、高消耗来维持总产出的高增长,是一种低效的发展方式.     

Some notes on inflation and employment: Incomes policy and the perspective of the European Monetary Union

In recent times, a new notion of incomes policy as an instrument aiming both at the control of inflation and at the defense of employment has come to supplant the original conception of incomes policy as the set of conditions which could make the growth of the economy compatible with price stability. The aim of the paper is to emphasize that the theoretical background of the former notion appears profoundly different from—and far less solid than—the one of the latter conception. The second aim is to emphasize that factual experience appears to confirm the role assigned to incomes policy in its original meaning. Wage moderation, important as it may be for the control of inflation, is not sufficient for the defense of employment. The third aim of the paper is to emphasize that the perspective of the European Monetary Union has made the defense of employment even more complex, thus calling for a careful reconsideration of a widely advertised relationship between "Maastricht" and employment. A procedural suggestion addressed to each one of the 15 members of the European Union concludes the paper. This article is published posthumously. His death is a great loss to the economic community.     

Economic Planning and Intersectoral Fiscal Policies

The paper contrasts viewpoints of neoclassical and traditional institutionalism on the prospects of state capture. It argues that state capture is a profit-seeking capital investment activity, which is determined by a historically prevailing and continuously evolving institutional environment, and, thus, it is an open-ended evolutionary phenomenon. Therefore the methodological framework of original institutionalism that emphasizes uncertainty and non-equilibrium processes is considered to be a better device for realistic study of state capture. Kaleckian analysis of non-equilibrium dynamics that links together capital accumulation and open-ended path of institutional change is recommended as a prospective method for further quantitative explorations in this field.     

Post-Keynesian Economic Policies: The Case of Sweden

This paper attempts to present the basic features that would define a model of behavior suited to an institutional and post-Keynesian approach. To facilitate explanation, human behavior is divided into three phases: motivation, cognition and reasoning and decision-making. Motivation appears as a process directed toward the satisfaction of a complex structure of various needs and wants. The role of emotions and the social and cognitive aspects of motivation are recognized. Moreover, it is also recognized that human beings have limited cognitive and rational capacities, and it is accepted that they are potentially creative. Partly as a consequence of that, cognition becomes a social act and knowledge of reality is subject to fundamental uncertainty. Finally, human rationality (or intelligence) is associated with a search for good solutions, and it includes elements of procedural rationality, creativity and emotional rationality. The role of habits and institutions in all these phases is stressed.     

Price Levels and Economic Growth: Making Sense of Revisions to Data on Real Incomes

The price surveys from the 2005 International Comparison Program (ICP) imply substantially lower levels of GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) for many developing countries than prior estimates. While some observers have questioned the data, this paper argues that the pattern of changes in PPPs between ICP rounds makes economic sense. Consistently with the original Balassa–Samuelson model, more rapidly growing economies experienced steeper increases in their PPPs relative to official exchange rates. This effect was even stronger for poor countries. Taking account of this effect would reduce the need for such large data revisions when new ICP data become available.     

交通运输与经济增长:美国的经验及启示

交通运输在国民经济中占有重要的地位,但新古典经济学和现代经济增长理论并没有将其纳入研究的范畴之中。对于滞后于现实的经济理论而言,经济发展的历史经验往往能提供许多有益的启示,文章拟从美国19世纪交通运输发展与经济增长的史实出发,总结和揭示交通运输与经济增长之间的关系,从而为我国交通运输发展、经济增长和缩小地区经济差距提供有意义的建议和对策。