‘Socialization of Investment’ and ‘Euthanasia of the Rentier’: the Relevance of Keynesian policy ideas for the contemporary US Economy

This paper builds from two explicit policy ideas that Keynes introduced in the General Theory, a ‘somewhat comprehensive socialization of investment’, and ‘the euthanasia of the rentier’. The paper argues that, to a significant degree, the stagnation of the contemporary US economy can be attributed to the nature of its capital-market based, or ‘exit led’ financial system, which promotes short-termism, speculation and financial fragility, as well as excessive political power for the rentier class. In combination, these factors also diminish governments' capacity to successfully implement policies that promote egalitarian growth and full employment. In making these points, I contrast the US financial system with the bank-based or ‘voice led’ systems, such as those in Japan, France or South Korea. The paper then sketches a series of policy proposals which would address these problems. These proposals include regulatory policies which would ‘level the playing field upward’ among all financial intermediaries, and credit allocation policies that give preference to projects with high social rates of return. The proposals also aim to substantially increase the degree of democratic accountability within the financial system.     

The Stories That Economists Tell: Mainstream,Hyman Minsky,and Institutional Views of Consumer Behavior

The financial crisis of 2008 provided an informal test of mainstream and institutional views of consumer behavior. The test posed by the financial crisis assumes the form of a “story.” A successful story provides a reasonably coherent explanation of events, confirming our beliefs and justifying our policies. First, the article examines the failure of mainstream economics to present a coherent story of consumer behavior. Ignoring the relevance of assumptions, as Milton Friedman advocated, leads economists to hypostasize the model, filtering information central to the crisis. Second, Minsky’s discussion of consumer behavior and its effect on cash inflows to businesses represents an institutional explanation regarding why John Maynard Keynes’s long-run vision did not occur. The third section expands on some of the themes addressed by Minsky, which are found among the contributions of institutional economists, focusing on efforts to mold institutions to increase cash inflows to corporations and protect those inflows.     

An Ayresian View of Gandhian Economics

Economic waste stems from the abuse of power that interferes with the process of social provisioning. For Thorstein Veblen, waste stems from individual efforts to show superiority, corporate efforts to increase pecuniary returns without increasing industry, or national efforts to exert military dominance. For John Maynard Keynes, waste assumes the form of idle factories, unemployed workers, and unsold goods resulting from insufficient demand. From a broader perspective, waste results from the efforts of rentiers to increase their returns. Both dimensions of waste relate to the Fed and other central banks’ efforts to address the problem of social provisioning through the wealth effect. The ideas of Veblen and Keynes provide guidance for evaluating policy directed at enhancing the provisioning process. Based on Veblen’s ideas, policies should promote the life process and not conspicuous consumption. Based on Keynes ideas, policies should stimulate demand, increasing profits and, in turn, creating jobs.     

Work and consumption in an era of unbalanced technological advance

Keynes’s “Grandchildren” essay famously predicted both a rapid increase in productivity and a sharp shrinkage of the workweek – to 15 h – over the century from 1930. Keynes was right (so far) about output per capita, but wrong about the workweek. The key reason is that he failed to allow for changing distribution. With widening inequality, median income (and therefore the income of most families) has risen, and is now rising, much more slowly than he anticipated. The failure of the workweek to shrink as he predicted follows. Other factors, including habit formation, socially induced consumption preferences, and network effects are part of the story too. Combining the analysis of Keynes, Meade and Galbraith suggests a way forward for economic policy under the prevailing circumstances.     

Rethinking the Theory of Money,Credit, and Macroeconomics: A Review Essay

ABSTRACT

This essay presents an overview and assessment of John Smithin's 2018 book Rethinking the Theory of Money, Credit, and Macroeconomics. Smithin continues the projects of Keynes and Minsky with the aim of providing a general account what how the macroeconomy actually works. The essay evaluates Smithin's alternative monetary model of the economy in the light of several key Post-Keynesian themes.     

Creative Destruction or Regressive Stagnation? Comments on articles by Paul Davidson and James Galbraith

In considering the relevance of Keynesian economics in the late twentieth century, there are two questions to be asked: first, to what extent do ‘Keynes's insights’ help in analysing the world today; and secondly, to what extent does the ‘globalisation’ of the world economy, affect the implementation and efficacy of Keynesian economic policies. The articles by Galbraith and Davidson tackle these two questions: James Galbraith considers the relevance of Keynesian concepts in analysing the global economy of today, and Paul Davidson discusses Keynesian policies given the changes in the world economy.     

经济负债、金融稳定与明斯基周期*

我国是否逼近“明斯基时刻”成为当前经济关注的热点。本文首次基于明斯基周期核心理论“金融不稳定假说”，构建投资负债系统模型，应用面板VAR模型，从公司层面实证研究我国经济是否存在明斯基周期。研究结果表明，我国经济主体负债率在经济扩张期呈现显著的逆周期性，负债对投资的负向影响在经济扩张期表现最为显著，上述两点结论与明斯基“金融不稳定假说”的核心观点相冲突，说明根植于西方自由金融市场土壤的明斯基周期理论并不适用于我国。但值得注意的是，由于我国当前阶段也存在“金融拖拽效应”，在当前宏观经济政策中要进一步明确去杠杆的重要性。     

西斯蒙第与凯恩斯经济危机思想之比较

在西方经济学说史上,西斯蒙第和凯恩斯处于十分特殊的地位。他们既是古典经济学的继承者。又对古典经济学的根本原则提出了挑战。在经济危机问题的研究方面,他们所倡导的消费不足论,存在许多相近之处又各具特色。对二者经济思想的比较研究,不仅可以揭示危机理论发展演进的轨迹,在某种程度上也能够加深对当代西方宏观经济政策的思考。     

Neoliberal Entrenchment of North Atlantic Capital. From Corporate Self-Regulation to State Capture

After the financial crisis of 2007–8, neoliberal capitalism by all appearances has entrenched instead of being displaced. Its political–economic programme or ‘comprehensive concept of control’ continues to hold society in thrall. This was different in the crisis of 1974–5 when the corporate liberalism of the postwar years and its industry-centred class compromise were beginning to be replaced by finance-led neoliberalism and a compromise with asset-owning middle classes. Under corporate liberalism, real capital accumulation was protected from the ‘rentier’/‘money-dealing’ fraction of capital associated with speculative investment; neoliberalism has allowed its resurgence. Large corporations in the first phase of the transition (‘systemic neoliberalism’) embarked on a strategy of transnational restructuring no longer dependent on 1960s-style state support. In the process, financial group formation, here measured by dense director interlocks (≥2) amongst the largest corporations in the North Atlantic economy (where this type of corporate governance obtains), was intensified. The resurgence of money-dealing capital and rentier incomes in the 1990s led to a decline in real accumulation (‘predatory neoliberalism’), and after the crisis of 2007–8, to a demise of the financial group structure of Atlantic capital as the network of dense interlocks radically thins out and capital comes to rely on states again, this time to protect it from a democratic correction of the neoliberal regime and with state autonomy greatly reduced by public debt.     

Economic policy as expectations management: Keynes’ and Friedman's complementary approaches1

We investigate how Keynes and Friedman, respectively, address the issue of the disequilibria at stake in a monetary economy through a shared concern for the formation of expectations. We show that Keynes was interested in the coordination of long-term expectations regarding non-monetary assets prospective yields, while Friedman focused on the adaptation of short-term nominal expectations. Regarding the remedies to these disequilibria, both economists called for devices that aim to stabilise market expectations. As a direct outcome, Keynes designed policies that aim to stabilise the long-term state of expectations while Friedman basically aimed at the acceleration of the competitive adjustment process.     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Fund Demand and Corporate Investment

Using a unique set of data on fund use by China’s listed companies, this paper examines how macroeconomic uncertainty works on corporate investment. The study shows that macroeconomic uncertainty affects corporate investment behavior through the three channels of external demand, liquidity demand and long-term fund demand. However, the result is influenced by expectations and can differ across firms depending on their economic cycle, shareholder character, industrial character and the financial constraints they are exposed to. Specifically, high macroeconomic uncertainty can weaken the positive roles of these channels, especially those of external demand and liquidity demand, in driving corporate investment. During economic upturns, the effect of these channels is the most evident among state-owned firms, manufacturing firms and low cash dividend firms. The lessons from this study are that macroeconomic policies should be leveraged taking account of the channels through which economic shocks find their way, and monetary policies have to be implemented by targeting microscopic fund demand.     

Economic Institutions and the Satisfaction of Human Needs

This article examines John Kenneth Galbraith’s contributions to the field of economic development. Galbraith’s works on economic development were numerous, but they remain largely ignored by his critics and fans alike. He approached the economic development problem with a keen understanding of both the economic and political forces shaping the development debate. Galbraith’s contributions to development economics were always focused on how to get the job done. Doing so required different strategies in an exceedingly diverse community of nations. His work remains relevant. The literature is only now beginning to recognize that this holistic approach to development is a necessary alternative to single-causation theories of world poverty. Galbraith’s approach to development problems is consistent with (and perhaps inspired by) original institutional economics (OIE) in the tradition of Thorstein Veblen and Clarence Ayres.     

The Economic Contributions of Hyman Minsky: varieties of capitalism and institutional reform

The work of Hyman Minsky represents an important link between Post Keynesians and Institutionalists. This essay begins with a brief summary of Minsky's early work, including his well-known financial instability hypothesis and his policy proposals designed to reform the financial system. It then moves on to discuss other proposals that are less well known, and developed after the publication of his Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986) book. One of them in all the work of Minsky is his demand that theory be institution-specific. Because there are a variety of possible types of economies, theory must be appropriate to the specific economy under analysis. His analysis concerned an evolving, developed, big-government capitalist economy with complex and long-lived financial arrangements. His policy recommendations were designed to promote a successful, democratic form of capitalism given these financial arrangements. These policies would have to ‘constrain’ instability through creation of institutional ‘ceilings and floors’ while at the same time addressing the behavioral changes induced by reduction of instability. The policies would also have to promote rising living standards, expansion of democratic principles, and enhancement of security for the average household.     

Thorstein Veblen’s 1904 contributions to q and insider/outsider analysis

The early 20th century saw the first steps in a tradition of leading economists explaining the link between corporate finance, investment and capital valuation. The writings of Keynes, and Tobin deal with the development of an investment theory based on the financial structure. However there is no mention Veblen, whereas he made an early American analysis of corporate governance structure. Our work is based on a critical review of the literature, which is guilty of omissions, lack of accuracy and errors of formalization. So that, we focus on the reasons why Veblen’s corporate financial analysis should not be forgotten.     

International Trade Union Organizations

An attempt is made in this article to demonstrate that Alfred Marshall and John Maynard Keynes erected a number of signposts that point in the direction of a normative, institutional and policy-oriented social economics of labor. They opined that dysfunctioning institutions had thrown most members of the working class into an abyss of poverty. According to Marshall, poverty was caused by institutional neglect of education for the masses. Hence he recommended a drastic overhaul of those institutions that impinged on education. Keynes argued that the rentiers were the villains because they had intentionally reduced their funding of entrepreneurial investments. Consequently, investments dwindled and unemployment caused working-class poverty to rise above its customary levels. Keynes's solution was public investment in private enterprises, which he called socialization of investment. This would cause euthanasia of the anti-social rentiers. Because of their recommendations, Marshall and Keynes called themselves socialists.     

Does shareholder primacy lead to a decline in managerial accountability?

Shareholder primacy is increasingly considered to be the mosteffective way to foster managerial (corporate) accountability.Contrary to this now standard argument, we consider that shareholderprimacy, rather than gatekeeper failure, is directly responsiblefor the multiplication of accounting irregularities and thedramatic increase in executive compensations. To defend thisthesis, we propose a new reading of Berle and Means (1932),Galbraith (1973) and Alchian and Demsetz (1972), stressing thelogical failure of a control of the business firm provided forby stock markets: the implementation of shareholder primacyimplies a partial disconnection between access to internal knowledgeand empowerment. In turn, this disconnection favours deceptivebehaviours on the part of corporate insiders. Empirical evidencemostly based on Enron-era financial scandals illustrates ourargument.     

The Economics of Regulating Cross-border Finance: Two New Views

For much of the 20th century the dominant view in macroeconomics was that cross-border finance needed to be regulated in order to balance the ‘impossible trinity’ first sketched by John Maynard Keynes in his two books on monetary theory. The dominant view in development economics during the same period was that cross-border capital flows need to be regulated for similar reasons but also to mobilize domestic resources for economic development. The view that capital mobility was something to be constrained fell out of favor in mainstream economics by the 1980s and 1990s. The experience of numerous financial crises in the past 20 years has spawned new economic theories that reintroduce the notion that cross-border finance can cause financial instability. One strand of new theory in this realm picks up from Ragnar Nurkse, Hyman Minsky, and others, and has become popular in many emerging market capitals and in the United Nations system. Another strand of new theory comes from modern welfare economics and is gaining ground in mainstream economics, central banks, and the Bretton Woods institutions. This paper examines these new breakthroughs and traces them to their origins in economic thought. Coupled with new econometric evidence on the efficacy of capital account regulation, the regulation of capital flows is justified now more than ever.     

“明斯基时刻”之考辨

最近这场信贷危机和经济衰退之后,“明斯基时刻”作为标语在金融媒体、时事评论和学术出版物当中广泛传播。对该术语考辨后发现,源自后人发明的“明斯基时刻”尽管具有“危机拐点”和“危机过程或阶段”这两种不同含义,但它们却均是对明斯基思想的贬低乃至歪曲。该标语将明斯基的“金融不稳定性假说”简化以及曲解为单纯的“时刻”、“时段”、“融资分类法”或“非理性疯狂”,结果是,每个时期的金融危机,无论其特征如何,都可以冠之以“明斯基时刻”,而该假说所描述的动态机理却被忽视了。明斯基为我们所做出的最为重要且鼓舞人心的贡献在于“明斯基动态”,即他对现代金融化经济变得如此不稳定的内生动态机制的理解,而这种洞见如今却依然游离于主流思想之外,饱受忽视甚至压制。     

Financialization,Class Interests,and Karl Polanyi’s Protective Response

Many observers expected a stronger countermovement against neoliberalism following the Great Recession. This article argues that such a protective response failed to materialize because the financialization process has aligned the preferences of labor and rentier classes. The result has been weaker support in democracies for expansionary monetary and fiscal policies during the early stages of recessions, which further lowers aggregate spending by increasing uncertainty. Thus, reversing the culture of financialization may be a necessary condition for preventing and responding to financial crises.     

Instability and Crisis in Financial Complex Systems

This paper contrasts the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), taking into account the dynamic complexity of financial markets. This approach offers analytical tools that can account for crisis through processes endogenous to contemporary economies. Recent work, notably by J. Barkley Rosser, has suggested that complex dynamics is a strong foundations for Keynesian models and results. Group dynamics enter into the analysis in at least two ways: they provide an independent source of fundamental uncertainty which, as discussed by Keynes himself, can lead to speculative bubbles in asset markets, and they can cause overreactions in both lenders' and borrowers' attitudes toward risk. These aspects can lead to financial fragility and instability following a variety of complex dynamics. I shall argue that a financially complex system is, according to the FIH, inherently flawed and unstable: in the absence of adequate economic policy boom and bust phenomena, in financial markets which are fuelled by credit booms and busts, may generate endogenous instability and systemic crisis, such as the recent sub-prime mortgage crisis.

[O]ur economic leadership does not seem to be aware that the normal functioning of our economy leads to financial trauma and crisis, inflation, currency depreciations, unemployment, and poverty in the midst of what could be virtually universal affluence—in short, that financially complex capitalism is inherently flawed. (Minsky, 1986, p. 287; our emphasis)