The Market for Quacks

A group of n "quacks" plays a price-competition game, facing a continuum of "patients" who recover with probability α , whether they acquire a quack's "treatment". If patients chose rationally, the market would be inactive. I assume, however, that patients choose according to a boundedly rational procedure, which reflects "anecdotal" reasoning. This element of bounded rationality has significant implications. The market for quacks is active, and patients suffer a welfare loss which behaves non-monotonically w.r.t. n and α . In an extended model that endogenizes the quacks' choice of "treatments", the quacks minimize the force of price competition by offering maximally differentiated treatments. The patients' welfare loss is robust to market interventions, which would crowd out low-quality firms in standard models. Thus, as long as the patients' quality of reasoning is not lifted above the anecdotal level, ordinary competition policies may be ineffective.     

制度变迁中的制度构建失灵及其解决模式--义乌小商品市场变迁的案例研究

本文指出,现有市场主导型(需求诱致性)和政府主导型(供给强制性)制度变迁理论存在许多的问题.它没有对为什么有些制度变迁是成功的而有些却是以失败告终的给出解释,也没有理清两种制度变迁模式相互作用的规律以及相互转化的条件.本文以义乌小商品市场制度变迁案例的研究为线索,试图弥补这些缺陷,并得出了以下结论:(1)单纯的市场主导型制度变迁或政府主导型制度变迁都可能以失败告终,因为单一的制度变迁引导机制无法很好克服制度变迁机制中所面临的"制度构建失灵"问题--市场力量无法提供制度变迁中所必需的公共品,政府力量无法很好解决制度变迁中的利益共融与信息冲突的问题;(2)成功的制度变迁需要通过结合诱致力量和强制力量来解决公共品提供不足以及利益冲突等问题,因此,制度变迁方式的转换以及共融利益关系的形成是制度变迁成功的核心.     

Modelling the determinants of trans-Tasman migration after World War II

"This paper identifies the economic and demographic factors responsible for migration flows between Australia and New Zealand by means of a probabilistic model of emigration in both directions. The largely uncontrolled flows between the two countries have the same determinants as those commonly found in studies of internal migration. The cost of migration (proxied by the real cost of air travel), labour market conditions and the potential earnings differential play a role, although the results are modified by the incidence of return migration and age composition."     

The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom*

This paper addresses two issues. The first is whether demographic change was plausibly responsible for the run‐up in stock prices over the last decade, and whether an attempt by the baby boom cohort to cash out of its investments in the period 2010–2030 might lead to an “asset meltdown”. The second issue is whether the rise in dependency that will accompany the retirement of the baby‐boom cohort calls for an increase in national saving. We analyze these issues using a forward‐looking macro‐demographic model, and show that they are related via the existence of installation costs for capital. If such costs are sufficiently large, then demographics do have the power to affect stock prices, but “saving for America's old age” is less optimal. However, conventional estimates of capital installation costs are not large enough to explain large stock price movements in response to actual demographic change.     

World Population Growth; Past, Present and Future

Past, current and projected future population growth is outlined. Barring a calamitous pandemic, a further increase in the world’s population from 7 to between 8.8 and 10 billion by mid-century is unavoidable. This increase is driven by high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa whose population is forecast to more than double in the next 40 years and by a modest rise of 23 % in Asia’s huge population. Beyond mid-century, the range of plausible demographic destinations widens; much depends on fertility rates in the next few decades because they will determine the number of potential reproducers in the second half of the century. Vigorous promotion of family planning, particularly in Africa, is crucial to achievement of population stabilisation. Unchanged fertility implies a global population of 25 billion by the end of the century. In the next few decades the contribution of human population growth to global environmental change is moderate, because nearly all growth will occur in poor countries where consumption and emission of greenhouse gases is low. The implications for food production, and thereby water consumption, are greater. Much of the future need for food will be driven by increased numbers rather than changing diets. Loss of bio-diversity and natural habitats, degradation of fragile eco-systems due to over-exploitation and aquifer deletion are likely consequences.     

Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power

We analyze welfare and distributional properties of a two-settlement system consisting of a spot market over a two-node network and a single energy forward contract. We formulate and analyze several models which simulate joint dispatch of energy and transmission resources coordinated by a system operator. The spot market is subject to network uncertainty, which we model as a random capacity derating of an important transmission line. Using a duopoly model, we show that even for small probabilities of congestion (derating), forward trading may be substantially reduced, and the market power mitigating effect of forward markets (as shown in Allaz and Vila 1993) may be nullified to a great extent. There is a spot transmission charge reflecting transportation costs from location of generation to a designated hub whose price is the underlying for the forward contract. This alleviates some of the incentive problems associated with the forward market in which spot-market trading is residual. We find that the reduction in forward trading is due to the segregation of the markets in the constrained state, and the absence of natural incentives for generators to commit to more aggressive behavior in the spot market (the strategic substitutes effect). In our analysis, we find that the standard assumption of no-arbitrage across forward and spot markets leads to very little contract coverage, even for the case with no congestion. We present an alternative view of the market where limited intertemporal arbitrage enables temporal price discrimination by competing duopolists. In this framework, we assume that all of the demand shows up in the forward market (or that the market is cleared against an accurate forecast of the demand), and the forward price is determined using a market clearing condition.     

Growth and equity effects of changing demographic structures in the Netherlands: simulations within a social accounting matrix

"This paper deals with the economic consequences of a changing demography in an industrialized country, namely the Netherlands. The analytical framework chosen is that of general equilibrium as statistically given by the social accounting matrix (SAM) in which we introduce households by size for the present economic demographic situation (1981) and for a future simulated situation (2010) featuring in particular a relative increase in one-person households (individualization). The income (output) multipliers of both SAMs show a positive growth bias towards three and more person households and towards mining, public utilities, trade and banking."     

国际油价在向谁叫板

2000年国际油价的剧烈变动并非是由供求关系变化引起。国际油价暴涨对发达国家和国际大资本有利。考虑到后备资源严重不足的现状，中国将可能是国际油价大幅波动的最主要受害国。中国石油进口的增长速度要远比前期估计快得多。我们需要有一支采用金融化操作方式、介入投机性运作、从事风险贸易的强大力量，一方面从市场的价格波动中博取更多国际比较收益，另一方面保证对国内需求的均衡供给。     

Market clearing and derivative pricing

Summary. We develop a method of assigning unique prices to derivative securities, including options, in the continuous-time finance model developed in Raimondo (2001). In contrast with the martingale method of valuing options, which cannot distinguish among infinitely many possible option pricing processes for a given underlying securities price process when markets are dynamically incomplete, our option prices are uniquely determined in equilibrium in closed form as a function of the underlying economic data.Received: 14 April 2003, Revised: 7 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: G13, D52.This paper is dedicated to Birgit Grodal, whose strength and character we greatly admire. We are very grateful to Darrell Duffie, Steve Evans, Botond Koszegi, Roger Purves, Jacob Sagi, Chris Shannon, Bill Zame and an anonymous refereee for very helpful discussions and comments. The work of both authors was supported by Grant SES-9710424, and Andersons work was supported by Grant SES-0214164, from the National Science Foundation.     

世界市场:社会主义市场经济的逻辑起点

对于社会主义市场经济这一邓小平理论中的基本问题，人们更多的是从计划经济与市场经济两种经济体制的横向比较中或哲学方法论的角度进行分析，从而把世界市场作为建设社会主义市场经济的外部条件。本文遵循马克思的思路，主要从世界市场、社会主义、市场经济相互关系角度探讨了社会主义市场经济的理论渊源，指出世界市场是社会主义市场经济的逻辑起点和理论源头，并认为这种分析方法有助于人们正确理解马克思主义与邓小平理论的内在联系。     

垄断型信贷市场融资担保问题分析--以民营中小企业融资为例

民营中小企业在转型经济条件下的垄断型信贷市场中很容易受到信贷歧视,商业银行对此类企业的"惜贷"乃至拒贷不仅反映出非公有制经济主体差强人意的融资地位,而且从一个侧面折射出计划金融体制对于商业银行市场化改革的种种束缚作用以及在金融改革滞后的情况下商业银行信贷行为的严重不合理性.本文试图通过建立一个垄断型信贷市场融资担保模型来分析市场垄断和利率管制对民营中小企业融资的不利影响,担保对于缓解民营中小企业融资难问题所能发挥的积极作用,以此说明改革我国金融体制、开放信贷市场和实行利率自由化的必要性.     

试论市场经济条件下生产力运行机制问题

中国从计划经济转向审场经济，生产力运行状态将发生根本性的变化，生产力经济学者有责任去研究“市场经济条件下生产力运行机制”这个新课题。本文认为，首先要研究“利益机制”，以“公民产权本位论”为准绳去构造新的产权体系和经济结构，使生产力从国有制及计划经济束缚中解放出来；进而，还要形成适合市场经济要求的“优越机制”及“调控机制”，使社会生产力在市场经济新环境中健康发展。     

A unified approach to incorporating demographic or other effects into demand systems

"A general method of introducing demographic effects into any demand system, using modifying functions, is described which permits complicated interactions of demographic variables with prices and expeditures. Theorems give properties the modifying functions must have to ensure integrability of the resulting system. Demand equations of the new system are given explicitly as functions of the original demand equations and the modifying functions. The procedure is interpreted as altering a household's technology, and is shown to encompass adult equivalent scales and related methods. Examples of modifying functions are derived and applications of the technique to uses other than demographic variation are considered."     

资本市场的发展有利于现代金融体系的建立

在经济全球化的大背景下,现代金融体系已成为现代市场经济的核心,是经济社会发展的基础。当前,要推进金融体制改革,发展各类金融市场,形成多种所有制和多种经营形式、结构合理、功能完善、高效安全的现代金融体系。资本市场是金融体系的重要一环,发展中国资本市场,正是改变现有资本市场格局、有利于建立现代金融体系的。     

Estimation of Minimum Market Threshold for Retail Commercial Sectors

Understanding the ability of a local market to support a particular type of establishment is a prerequisite to designing effective development strategies. While several factors contribute to the vitality of the local retail market, the most fundamental factor is the relative size of the market in terms of potential customers. A commonly applied technique to assess the ability of a community to support various business activities is the estimation of demand threshold using simple count data models. However, due to the presence of excessive zeros in the dependent variable, this study uses Hurdle Poisson and Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) count data models and estimates demand threshold for twelve retail commercial sectors for 2,201 counties in the U.S. The results show that the demographic characteristics of the county population and its remoteness are significant factors determining the number of establishments in a county. The results from this study may be used by local economic development practitioners and entrepreneurs to retain, promote, and attract retail commercial businesses in the local communities.     

中国股票市场的制度供给与需求分析

在中国股票市场从传统的计划经济体制向现代市场经济体制的转变过程中 ,制度短缺成为一种普遍现象。在其制度变迁中 ,政府是中国股票市场制度供给的主体 ,而股票市场市场化和国际化则是制度需求的动力。分析中国股票市场的制度供给与创新 ,有助于我们探寻一种适合中国股票市场健康成长的强制性的制度变迁模型     

Demographics and the pension system

"Italian demographic evolution closely resembles that of the other leading European countries, although with some distinctive features, such as a lower birth rate, more rapid population aging and fewer immigrants. Projections for the next two or three decades point to accelerating expansion of the aged population, especially of the very old, and a contraction of the working age population after the turn of the century. However, there are also unknowns involved in the demographic evolution of the aged population, turning on the speed of the decline in senile mortality in the decades to come and the possible effects on the health of the elderly population, hence on the demand for social services, considering among other things changing family patterns. There is broad agreement that the birth rate is now too low, that this could have serious long-run repercussions on relations between generations and on intergenerational transfers, and that there is room for social policy action to influence the reproductive choices of couples. This article examines several possible reproductive models and discusses the foundations for action and the potential policy contradictions."     

The folk theorem revisited

Summary. This paper develops a simple instant-response model of strategic behavior where players can react instantly to changing circumstances, but at the same time face some inertia after changing action. The framework is used to reconsider the folk theorem and, in particular, the role of the key condition of dimensionality. In contrast to the discounted case in discrete time, here low dimensionality may help support equilibria because it is more difficult for a potential deviator or punisher to defect beneficially.Received: 20 November 2003, Revised: 1 November 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, C73.Thanks are due to an anonymous referee for detailed comments.     

我国银行间同业拆借市场利率风险度量

本文利用1996年1月5日至2008年9月17日的我国银行间隔日同业拆借利率序列,通过GARCH模型对收益数据中的自相关和异方差现象进行了实证研究,采用MLE方法估计模型参数,再利用所得参数分别计算了不同收益率分布假设下的不同置信水平的VaR值;在此基础上,进行回测检验,比较了各种模型估计效果,并进一步分析了我国同业拆借利率市场的系统性风险历史波动趋势;最后提出了相关结论与政策建议。     

Transformations in China's population policies and demographic structure

Abstract. We use data from a 1992 national fertility survey to analyze China's changing demographic patterns between 1970 and 1989, covering marriage, childbearing, fertility and the gender composition of children. The analysis focuses on the relationship between population control policies and the behavior of successive marriage cohorts. Adopting a regression approach, we characterize a set of stylized demographic features in China over the two decades, including new results on women's average age at first marriage and first births, number of children per couple, and sex ratios among children. China's changing demographic patterns differed significantly among urban, township and rural populations.