ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES

Using 1981–2009 data for the 50 states, this article examines the relationship between economic freedom and the unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and the employment‐population ratio. After controlling for a variety of state‐level characteristics, the results from most specifications indicate that economic freedom is associated with lower unemployment and with higher labor force participation and employment‐population ratios. (JEL J68, K31, O43)     

Squandering European Labour: Social Safety Nets in Times of Economic Turbulence

This paper reviews the argument that high long‐term unemployment in Europe is caused by generous social safety nets in times of economic turbulence. We report on the empirical evidence of a more turbulent economic environment and present the theoretical arguments that establish a link between turbulence and high unemployment. We conclude that a cure to the European unemployment problem must entail a reform of the unemployment insurance system so that benefits decline over the unemployment spell. If the social consensus in Europe makes it difficult to implement declining benefits, we suggest that a complementary way of providing incentives for the unemployed would be to reduce their leisure by imposing work requirements.     

Unemployment and the shadow economy

Current research links the shadow economy (SE) and the unemployment rate either indirectly or by means of a preliminary estimate. This article establishes and empirically implements a methodology for estimating the size of the SE as a direct function of the tax and unemployment rates. This link is found to be extremely relevant in countries with high unemployment rates (such as Greece and Spain) and less relevant in countries with moderate unemployment rates (such as Germany and Italy). Unemployment’s contribution to the SE is shown to be significant, especially in the years following the economic downturn of 2008. The calculation of the variance and distribution of these estimates is another significant contribution. The common criticism that SE estimates are unreliable is addressed by calculating the variance and the distribution of the estimates, and the large size of the SE in Greece and Spain is once again confirmed.     

Layoffs,recalls and unemployment duration: evidence from Sweden

The question addressed in this paper is whether the possibility of exit from unemployment to the previous employer affects the duration of unemployment spells in Sweden. The empirical analysis is performed using an employee–employer dataset that includes a number of enterprise characteristics and provides information on individual tenure. The econometric approach employs estimation of a competing risk duration model to distinguish between exits to the previous employer and exits to a new job. The findings suggest that greater tenure raises the risk of transition to the previous employer, while high education levels increase the risk of obtaining a new job. Moreover, the impact of benefit exhaustion is observed only for transitions to new employment.     

Factors of Immobility: Why the Unemployment Rate is Slow to Adjust

During the recent recession and the continuing recovery, the national unemployment rate has maintained a level that has only been observed one other time since the Great Depression. While the initial causes of the increased unemployment rate are documented, the adjustment process and reduction of unemployment rates back toward some natural rate has not been addressed empirically. In this paper, the authors analyze labor supply side factors that may cause unemployment rates to remain high for a longer period than the typical recession. The authors focus on the impact of unemployment insurance extensions, housing market contractions and the general breadth of the economic downturn as factors that slow the labor supply adjustment process and lead to prolonged high rates of unemployment.     

《资本论》研究的新方位:经济行为理论

《资本论》研究客观过程的发展规律包含在一定关系中的主体行为的规律。主体经济行为既与客观过程的发展有区别,又紧密联系。各个主体及其行为并非完全是同质的,在经济过程中的作用也不同。各种主体相互差异的行为会直接间接地影响社会总资本的发展。经济行为理论是资本理论的进一步具体化。研究主体经济行为是唯物史观在经济研究领域的贯彻。马克思不仅考察资本家与雇佣工人之间的行为关系,而且注意考察不同资本家之间的关系。研究资本家的经济行为,一方面可从中发掘一般的经济行为规律,另一方面可以批判资本家行为的非理性。     

MONITORING THE LABOUR MARKET: A PROPOSAL FOR A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH IN OFFICIAL STATISTICS (ILLUSTRATED BY RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN FRANCE,GERMANY AND THE U.K.)1

This paper analyses the weakness in labour demand which appeared in 1973–78 in France, Germany, and the U.K. and attempts a comprehensive assessment of it. Hitherto, the situation in labour markets has usually been measured by official figures of the registered unemployed which tend to understate unemployment itself and neglect other dimensions of labour slack, such as reversal of previous migration flows or declines in labour force participation or in working hours which may contain highly significant cyclical movements cushioning unemployment. The report proposes the adoption of a more comprehensive concept for labour market monitoring, along lines already used in the annual reports of the German Institute of Employment Research. Such an approach presents advantages in economic and labour market policy analysis. A simplified form of the proposed monitoring tables is presented in Annex Tables F-1 to F-4, G-1 to G-4 and U-1 to U-4. They can be considered as a potential satellite to existing national accounts. It is also suggested that analysis of the degree to which labour potential is used be conducted on a regular basis. The possibilities of this approach are outlined in considerable detail in Section V and in the annex. The different dimensions of the use-of-potential account are summarised in Table 3. The report contains a review of the literature on the full employment rate of unemployment and its components. This is one of the major issues on which a judgement must be made in use-of-potential analysis. This review is presented in Section VI of the report. It emerges from the analysis that Germany had the biggest labour slack (8.6 percent of potential) in 1978 though its unemployment rate (3.8 percent of the labour force) was the lowest of the three countries.     

Individuality and the economic order in Hegel's Philosophy of Right

This paper examines Hegel's perspective on the market economy, paying particular attention to how the market fits into his conception of freedom. Hegel's doctrine of freedom implies that market relations realize a distinctive form of freedom; however, due to the ontological deficiencies of this freedom, it must be subsumed under a superior freedom that is realized only within the state. The paper also explains why Hegel, although an economic liberal, does not accept the basic tenets of political liberalism, and why he does not regard economic science as a tool for public policy.     

ECONOMIC FREEDOM VERSUS POLITICAL FREEDOM: CROSS‐COUNTRY INFLUENCES ON CORRUPTION*

Using a well‐known index of corruption, this paper examines the determinants of corruption for a large sample of countries. Specifically, the present study brings empirical evidence to bear on the question of whether economic freedom or political freedom serves as a deterrent to corrupt activity. In particular, does greater economic freedom or greater political freedom yield a more ‘clean’ society? Our results show that greater economic freedom seems to matter more in this regard. Examining different components of economic freedom, we find that not all these components are equally effective in reducing corruption. For instance, monetary policy seems to have a stronger influence on the level of corrupt activity in a country than fiscal policy. Robustness of these findings is checked and policy implications are discussed.     

A distributional analysis of the benefits of economic freedom

Using US state-level economic freedom measures, we investigate the extent that changes in economic freedom affect US State income growth. More importantly, we study how this effect differs across income quintiles, allowing us to address the particularly timely question of who benefits from increases in economic freedom and who does not. Our results indicate that while increases in economic freedom positively contribute to income growth, the strength of this effect differs across quintiles.     

The European Commission’s new NAIRU: Does it deliver?

The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is a key component of potential output and as such critically affects output gap estimates. In May 2014, the European Commission changed its specification of the NAIRU for several countries and lowered its NAIRU estimates – in the case of Spain from 26.6% to 20.7% for 2015. To test the dependence of the new NAIRU on unemployment versus structural factors, we run counterfactual simulations applying 1SD shocks to actual unemployment and to the structural variable – real unit labour costs. We find that the NAIRU in its new specification is still largely determined by actual unemployment. This calls in question both the interpretation of potential output estimates as barriers to more vigorous inflation-stable economic activity and the accuracy of structural deficit figures.     

A coalitional theory of unemployment insurance and employment protection

This paper examines the role of coalition formation in the empirically observed negative correlation between employment protection and unemployment benefit. We study an economy composed of four groups of agents (capitalists, unemployed people, low- and high-skilled workers), each one represented by a politician. Politicians first form political parties and then compete in a winner-takes-all election by simultaneously proposing policy bundles composed of an employment protection level and an unemployment benefit. We first show that, in the absence of parties (i.e., in a citizen-candidate model), low-skilled workers are decisive and support a maximum employment protection level together with some unemployment benefit. We then obtain that, under some conditions, allowing for party formation results in all policy equilibria belonging to the Pareto set of the coalition formed by high-skilled workers together with unemployed people. Policies in this Pareto set exhibit a negative correlation between employment protection and unemployment benefit.     

Foreign direct investment,economic freedom and economic growth: International evidence

In this paper, we investigate the systemic link between economic freedom, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in a panel of 85 countries. Our empirical results, based on the generalized method-of-moment system estimator, reveal that FDI by itself has no direct (positive) effect on output growth. Instead, the effect of FDI is contingent on the level of economic freedom in the host countries. This means the countries promote greater freedom of economic activities gain significantly from the presence of multinational corporations (MNCs).     

Volatility in productivity and the impact on unemployment

Volatility, and the uncertainty it creates, has long been recognized as a factor in economic decision making. Since hiring occurs before shocks to productivity are realized, firms’ investment in new labour is inherently risky. How large a role uncertainty in productivity has on aggregate unemployment is an empirical question that we attempt to answer. In this paper we measure the impact of higher volatility in labour productivity on the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy using a SVAR-GARCH-M model. Using the conditional standard deviation of productivity innovations from a multivariate GARCH model to measure uncertainty, we provide compelling evidence that unemployment increases with volatility. This estimated relative effect is actually larger for positive productivity shocks leading to unemployment declines only 60% as large as would have occurred using models that exclude uncertainty.     

Labor market cycles, unemployment insurance eligibility, and moral hazard

If entitlement to UI benefits must be earned with employment, generous UI is an additional benefit to working, so, by itself, it promotes job creation. If individuals are risk neutral, then there is a UI contribution scheme that eliminates any effect of UI on employment decisions. As with Ricardian Equivalence, this result should be useful to pinpoint the effects of UI to violations of its premises. Our baseline simulation shows that if the neutral contribution scheme derived in this paper were to be implemented, the average unemployment rate in the United States would fall from 5.7 to 4.7 percent. Also, the results show that with endogenous UI eligibility, one can simultaneously generate realistic productivity driven cycles and realistic responses of unemployment to changes in UI benefits.     

VOTER PREFERENCES,INSTITUTIONS, AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM

The enormous impact that economic freedom can have on economic outcomes makes an understanding of the factors or forces affecting its level paramount. To what extent do citizen preferences regarding the role of government in the economy drive the level of or changes in economic freedom? We explore this question using a new index of voting in the U.S. Congress constructed consistent with the Fraser Institute indices of economic freedom. We use voting on national legislation to examine state‐level economic freedom to clearly separate the measurement of preferences from policies that at least partly reflect these preferences. We find that Congressional votes, both from the House and Senate, are related to increases in state economic freedom, and that the result is generally statistically and economically significant, and robust to inclusion of a variety of socioeconomic control variables. (JEL D72, H10, H50)     

Marx and the Development of Critical Political Economy

Abstract

Although relevant analytical developments were provided over time by the critique of economic theory, they did not succeed in inhibiting the occurrence of a full-fledged revival of the neoclassical interpretation of capitalism. The development of critical economics and its capability of checking the influence of the dominant economic culture have been especially prejudiced by the failed integration between the analyses of Marx and Keynes. Following Keynes, once the ‘inducement to invest’ had been singled out as the central question for the explanation of output levels, one should have promptly acknowledged that on this very question Marx's analysis was significantly richer and more relevant than Keynes's—the richness and relevance of the former ultimately resting on the great attention Marx dedicated to the complex question of the influence of income distribution on the capitalists’ incentive to invest. It is argued in the article that through the study of this influence Marx succeeded in putting together the essential elements of a critical theory of effective demand, based on the principles and mechanisms that govern the distribution of income between profits and wages.     

中国总量性非自愿失业模型生成机制研究——基于凯恩斯就业理论的视角

中国失业问题主要不是结构问题,而是总量问题。运用凯恩斯就业理论中的周期性总量性失业模型。对长期总量性非自愿失业的生成机制的研究发现,应从控制人口增长、降低劳动参与率、缩短劳动时间及实行灵活的就业制度等方面扩张潜在就业规模,从而有效治理失业问题。促进社会的和谐发展。     

中国经济中的高增长与低就业——奥肯定律的中国经验检验

对于中国的高速经济增长并没有带来相应的就业增长这样一个经验事实,存在奥肯定律是否有效的问题。我们通过研究认为,单纯验证奥肯定律并不能得出其是否有效的结论。放松其他条件不变的假定,加入其他影响因素的检验结果显示,经济增长与失业率虽然呈现总体上的负向关系,但是经济增长与就业人数增长率也呈现出负向关系,这表明奥肯定律在中国是失效的。因此,我们认为之所以高速的经济增长不能带来持续的就业增长的原因可能是,劳动密集型产业的收入分配中表现出资本密集型产业的特征,而资本密集型产业的收入分配中表现出劳动密集型产业的特征。     

Entrepreneurship and Unemployment in the UK

The influence of industrial structure, more specifically of entrepreneurship, is investigated on the level of unemployment in the UK. The question is to what extent entrepreneurship, i.e., business ownership can reduce the level of unemployment. The alleged differences between the managed and the entrepreneurial economy will be discussed as well as the links between entrepreneurship and unemployment. It will be concluded that the UK is a relative outlier when using a simple model of the relationship between unemployment and the rate of business ownership. The model is calibrated using recent data of some 23 OECD countries. It underestimates the decrease in unemployment in the UK in the period 1982–1990. Some arguments are brought forward why this might be the case.