Corporate Power and the Scope of Economic Analysis

This paper examines how consumer debt impacts middle-class households. Interest payments on this debt reduce spendable income and household living standards. We argue that it is necessary to account for interest payments on consumer debt when measuring income inequality and the size of the middle class, and then estimate the impact of doing this using the Survey of Consumer Finances datasets since the 1980s. We find that both greater income inequality and rising interest payments on past debt are squeezing the middle class, with interest becoming more important in the 2000s. We conclude with some policy proposals to aid middle-class households.     

Relative State Autonomy and National Economic Planning

Economic security is the protection from hardship causing economic losses. Such losses can occur due to unemployment, medical emergencies, and other unforeseen events. To measure how well prepared families are for these events, we calculate a series of middle class security indicators, specifically the share of families who have enough financial wealth to weather an unemployment spell, those who can cover a medical emergency, those can handle both unemployment and a medical emergency and those who can sustain an emergency that requires three months of income. Based on data from the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, we find that economic security steadily improved in the 1990s, but sharply declined after 2000. Within 2-3 years, all gains of the 1990s were erased due to a debt boom fuelled by weak income growth and sharp price increases.     

收入不平等对经济增长影响的实证研究

采用联立方程分析方法,实证分析了收入不平等对经济增长影响的三种机制,探讨了收入不平等如何通过影响物质资本投资、人力资本投资和居民消费来作用于经济增长。结果表明,从长期看收入不平等的扩大会刺激物质资本投资,但不利于人力资本投资和居民消费增长,收入不平等对经济增长的长期影响为负。因此,从经济发展的角度政府不应容忍收入不平等的过分扩大。     

经济增长与收入分配相关性研究重点转移带来的政策启示

从有关经济增长与收入分配相关性的研究内容入手,分析经济增长和收入分配研究从功能性分配向规模化分配的理论转变过程,提出了针对此种演变带给我们的政策启示:在经济增长过程中,应同时关注收入差距问题。     

土地政策调整对经济发展和社会福利的影响

构建了一个土地对社会福利影响的分析模型,并用天津市的数据进行检验。研究结果表明：（1）政府对于土地供应量的控制减少了均衡资本量;（2）严格的土地政策会使单位资本产生的福利量减少;（3）土地政策的适时调整能使经济发展沿着社会福利最大化的路径发展。因此,土地政策的制定应该以社会需求为导向,并通过适时调整以实现社会福利最大化。     

中国经济增长与收入差距关系的经验研究

经济增长与收入差距的关系是一个古老而又充满活力的问题。研究发现,尽管全国总量时序数据的Granger因果关系检验表明,中国的经济增长与收入差距不存在任何方向的因果关系,但以各省GDP增长率和城乡收入比为观测点的面板数据检验结果显示:不论是在短期还是在长期,收入差距的扩大都是引起经济增长的Granger原因;经济增长在短期会引起收入差距的扩大,但从长期看,有助于收入差距的缩小。     

基于经济指标构建的社会稳定风险评估研究

本文选用人均GDP、 GDP增速、基尼系数、物价指数和失业率等5项经济指标对社会稳定风险进行了评估,结果表明：国际横向比较,我国社会稳定程度目前处于中等偏上水平,主要得分在高速的GDP增长、较低的物价指数和失业率方面;自身纵向比较,我国社会稳定风险近年呈加大趋势,主要失分在贫富差距扩大和通货膨胀压力上升方面。笔者的分析结果显示,确保在贫富分化项上不再失分甚至有所加分,即确保贫富差距不再扩大并力争有所缩小,对于保持社会稳定极其重要。     

The Image of Australia. Perceptions of the Australian Economy from the Eighteenth to the Twentieth Century

Recent institutionalist and post-Keynesian work on business cycles continues with the traditional institutionalist supposition that financial bubbles drive cycles; however there has been a growing sense in the literature that household consumption, not business investment, has become the key variable. This paper will show how this is a change from historical institutional theory and it will then discuss how this change pushes income distribution toward a more central role in explaining current cycle dynamics. Specifically, this paper argues that much of the economic growth over the last two decades can be attributed to the top two quintiles borrowing more and the current slow growth can be attributed to high quintile households increasing their consumption while middle income households are continuing to deleverage.     

社会资本、人力资本与经济增长

笔者采用截面数据回归分析法及时间序列数据协整分析法对中国社会资本的不同维度——信任和民间组织与人力资本、经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,我国社会资本通过影响人力资本而影响经济增长,人力资本是我国社会资本作用于经济增长的机制之一。     

经济转型期我国社会保险与经济增长关系的实证分析

随着社会保障制度在世界范围内的建立和实施,对社会保险与经济增长之间关系的研究也成为颇具争议的焦点问题。本文基于新的经济环境视角,采用经典回归模型进行分析的结果表明,社会保险基金支出和经济增长之间长期存在双向正向的关系,通过不断完善社会保险制度有利于提高社会保险制度对经济增长的正向激励效应。     

社会资本在经济增长中的贡献——以黑河流域张掖市为例

从社会资本概念出发,将社会资本分为结构型和认知型。利用调查问卷形式定量测度了黑河流域10县区的社会资本,构建了包含社会资本要素在内的经济增长模型,考察了黑河流域2004年10县区经济增长和社会资本之间的关系,以及2002～2004年张掖市5县区社会资本对经济增长贡献率的变化,定量测算了社会资本在经济增长中的贡献。这对定量验证社会资本在经济增长过程中的作用具有重要意义。     

收入不平等对经济增长的倒U型影响:理论和实证

文章致力于从理论和实证两个维度,探讨收入不平等对长期经济增长"先促进后阻碍"的"倒U型"影响.文章首先基于一个拉姆齐模型,从理论上证明这一"倒U型"关系的存在;其次是构建实证模型,根据跨国横截面数据,分别运用OLS和GMM估计方法从实证的角度检验这一"倒U型"关系的存在.实证结果显示:GMM估计方法要优于OLS估计方法,在其他条件不变情况下,收入不平等有一个合理区间,如果以基尼系数衡量不平等程度,这一数值处于0.37-0.40之间.当一国初始收入不平等程度低于最优值时,可以通过提高收入不平等程度来加快经济增长的速度;反之,则应通过降低收入不平等程度来促进经济的增长.     

社会资本、金融发展与经济增长--基于中国东中西部省际数据的实证检验比较

社会资本对理解转轨情境下的当代中国金融发展与经济增长问题十分重要。采用中国东、中和西部的省际面板数据研究中国转轨时期不同制度水平下社会资本、金融发展及其联合效应对经济增长的影响。实证研究表明,正规金融的发展促进了经济增长,而社会资本对中国经济增长则具有显著的负影响。社会资本与正规金融发展的联合效应在东部和西部地区有利于经济增长,但非正规金融与社会资本的联合效应则不利于经济增长,并且制度越完善,这种负面效应越明显。因此,在深化制度改革和金融发展的同时,应注重社会资本结构优化和平衡,规范非正规金融发展。     

Relative consumption, economic growth, and taxation

This paper studies the influence of consumption externalities in the Ramsey model. In contrast to the recent literature, a quite general specification of preferences is used and the concept of the effective intertemporal elasticity of substitution is introduced. We give conditions for the observational equivalence between economies with consumption externalities and externality-free economies. An additional key result is that there exist several types of instantaneous utility functions in which the decentralized solution coincides with the socially planned one in spite of the presence of consumption externalities. The conditions for optimal taxation are also derived.     

浙江省社会经济水循环及水资源管理创新研究

水资源水质型短缺是浙江省可持续发展面临的一个战略瓶颈。社会经济水循环将传统水资源问题扩展到社会经济系统中,通过社会经济水循环研究,寻找解决水资源问题的根本途径,实现水资源管理创新。文章从社会经济水循环概念出发,剖析社会经济水循环及与水资源管理关系,在此基础上提出浙江省社会经济水循环研究框架,进而解析水资源管理创新内涵,总结提出相应的管理调控手段,从而推动浙江省水资源管理研究。     

Conspicuous consumption, economic growth, and taxation

Commodities do not only serve the purpose of satisfying direct needs in the production and consumption process. Some of them are also used to display social status and to affect the position of an individual in society. The paper looks at status-seeking activities in an economic-growth context. Two questions are asked. Does status-seeking behavior accelerate economic growth? And: should capital accumulation be subsidized to correct for the status externality? The answers to both questions are ambiguous.     

我国居民消费需求与社会保障水平的动态分析——基于中国19902009年经验数据

文章利用我国1990-2009年居民人均消费支出PCS和社会保障支出PPS数据,采用协整检验和误差修正模型等计量技术,检验社会保障水平对于居民消费的影响。在计量分析的基础上,认为拉动居民消费需求的关键在于完善社会保障制度、实现国民收入水平的持续稳定增加,增强国民的消费信心;同时还要扩宽社会保障基金的筹资渠道,加快重大民生工程建设,改善人们的消费预期,引导和促进居民扩大消费需求。     

中国电力周期与经济周期的协同性——基于Markov区制转移模型

采用1978—2015年中国电力消费和国内生产总值的年度数据,基于"三区制"马尔科夫区制转移模型,研究了电力消费和经济增长的动态转变过程,识别和划分了改革开放后中国电力周期和经济周期的阶段,并分析了两者在不同阶段的协同性。结果表明:电力周期和经济周期均具有低速增长期、稳定增长期和高速增长期三个区制转移特征;电力消费在低速增长期和高速增长期的波动性明显高于GDP,而在稳定增长期的波动性则显著小于GDP;20世纪80年代中期以前,是电力周期和经济周期的静态协同期;20世纪80年代中后期,两者处于非协同期;之后,两者处于显著的跨区制动态协同期,且处于协同期的电力周期与经济周期在时间上表现出较高的一致性。     

The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development

A middle class consensus is defined as a high share of income for the middle class and a low degree of ethnic divisons. The paper links a middle class consensus to resource endowments, along the lines of the provocative thesis of Engerman and Sokoloff (1997 and 2000). This paper exploits this association using tropical resource endowments as instruments for inequality. A higher share of income for the middle class and lower ethnic divisions are associated with higher income and higher growth, as well as with more education, better health, better infrastructure, better economic policies, less political instability, less civil war and ethnic minorities at risk, more social modernization and more democracy.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries

ABSTRACT

We investigate the causal relationship between public debt ratios and economic growth rates for 31 EU and OECD countries. We estimate a panel VAR model that incorporates the long-term real interest rate on government bonds as a vehicle to transmit shocks in both the public debt to GDP ratio and the economic growth rate. We find no causal link from public debt to growth, irrespective of the levels of the public debt ratio. Rather, we find a causal relationship from growth to public debt. In high-debt countries, the direct negative impact of growth on public debt is enhanced by an increase in the long-term real interest rate, which in its turn decreases interest-sensitive demand and leads to a further increase in the public debt ratio.