结构性金融产品的定价与投资决策研究：不确定性方法

本文在不确定性框架下,利用Choquet定价和Choquet期望效用理论研究结构性金融产品的定价和投资问题．并将不确定性参数和复杂系数对产品定价和投资决策的影响进行了敏感性分析,主要结论有随着不确定性程度的提高,产品的定价水平也随之提高;复杂产品有利于分散产品的集中风险且投资者对复杂产品平均预期收益水平的估计较高,从而选择复杂产品而非简单产品,部分解释了传统文献中结构性金融产品定价过高和投资者偏好复杂产品而非简单产品的两个悖论。     

The Formation of Economic Policy: A Cognitive-Evolutionary Approach to Policy-Making

This essay proposes a cognitive-evolutionaryapproach to economic policy making where the entire process ofpolicy-formation and implementation is analyzed as a collectiveprocess of mobilization and problem-solving that extends fromthe individual level over the level of collective decision makingto the constitutional level. In the procedural view proposed,many issues or problems of economic policy are not fully solvedbecause of four main filters or barriers that filter out certainissues while letting others through. The main task for politicalentrepreneurs is to surmount these barriers. Important aspectsof the politico-economic process are cognitive processes of perceptionand interpretation by the individual; processes of interpretation,mobilization, and negotiation at the collective level; and evolutionarydynamics at the constitutional level.—This interdisciplinaryoriented approach provides a framework that suggests new categoriesfor analyzing policy-making in a systematic way by linking thebehavior and thinking of the individual with the ongoing politicalprocess at the collective and constitutional level, and leadsto conclusions for advising politicians.     

Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Convergence Approach

This paper estimates dynamic effects of public capital on output per capita. Based on an open economy growth model, I derive a version of the income convergence equation augmented with public capital. This equation is estimated using panel data of United States and Japanese regions. Sensible results are obtained when public capital is disaggregated into components. In both countries, the infrastructure component of public capital turns out to have significantly positive effects. The implied elasticity of output with respect to infrastructure is somewhere around 0.1 to 0.15. This suggests a modest contribution of infrastructure to postwar growth of the two countries.     

Banks' Inefficiency and Economic Growth: A Micro‐Macro Approach

This paper offers a methodological contribution to the empirical analysis of the relationship between banking and economic growth by suggesting a new indicator for the state of development of the banking system based on a measure of bank microeconomic efficiency. This choice helps to overcome the problem of causality and to capture the effects of banks' activity on growth. This new approach is then applied to analyse the relationship between the banking system and economic growth in the Italian regions, through a dynamic panel technique. The empirical results show the existence of an independent effect exerted by the efficiency of banks on regional growth.     

Economic Development in the Shadow of the Consensus: A Strategic Decision-Making Approach

Founded on an interpretation that is rooted in localities andtheir communities, we offer a move from the inevitability ofuneven development. Analysis of past and present theory is framedin terms of decision-making. It is argued that ‘external’decisions may constrain localities in their development, whilereflecting the agendas of outside agents, corporations and otherorganisations. A dual approach to development is suggested,that would work in the shadow of the Washington and/or post-WashingtonConsensus to build a learning process of democratic engagement,and move towards redressing the decision-making balance in favourof localities. Examples from South Africa and Nicaragua illustrateour arguments.     

Debt and Economic Growth in the European Union: A Panel Granger Causality Approach

This paper contributes to empirical investigation of the causality relationships between real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the growth of three debt categories, namely public, foreign and private debt, in the universe of the 28 European Union (EU) countries during the past decade. Using panel Granger causality estimations, we find statistically relevant bidirectional causality relationships between public debt and economic growth for the periods both before and after the outbreak of the recent financial crisis. Moreover, there is clear evidence of economic growth’s contribution to decreasing public debt.     

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Simultaneous Error Correction Approach

This paper examines the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in India, during the period from 1970–71 to 2018–19. Using a combination of Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Simultaneous Error Correction Approach, this study shows that fiscal deficit and revenue deficit have an adverse effect on economic growth both in the long run and in the short run. The empirical analysis confirms that fiscal deficit influences economic growth both directly, and indirectly through the routes of investment, interest rate, current account deficit and composition of government expenditure. Further, gross investment has a positive and inflation rate has a negative impact on economic growth. For a policy perspective, the government should control fiscal deficit and revenue deficit as suggested by the FRBM Act. The composition of government expenditure should be altered to devote more resources for the formation of productive capital in India.

     

工业化进程：煤炭利用与经济发展

煤炭是工业化进程中的重要能源之一,但随着工业化进程的不断深入,在西方国家的能源结构中,煤炭的使用量不断降低。改革开放以来,中国的煤炭资源为中国经济的腾飞及经济增长提供了能源支撑,但也带来了污染严重、开采无序、浪费严重等一系列相关问题。在重点分析了改革开放以来煤炭的产量在总能源中所占比重及变化基础上,探讨煤炭开发利用与经济增长的关联以及煤炭与中国的能源消费结构的现状与变化趋势,并提出相关的对策建议。     

城市交通拥堵的经济学分析--基于计算经济学的模拟检验

交通拥挤是我国目前大城市社会关注的一个焦点,也是一个世界性难题。文章从交通经济学的基本理论出发,探讨了控制需求、增加供给、解决交通拥挤的各种实际手段和途径。同时还使用了交通系统的模拟软件来介绍运用计算经济学的方法评估和解决实际交通问题的思想,以供交通管理的决策者和研究人员参考。     

A Quick Method for Assessing Economic Damage Caused by Natural Disasters: An Epidemiological Approach

In the aftermath of any natural disaster, a quick assessment of economic damage is called for, without which recovery planning and fiscal budgeting is impossible. What is customarily done as damage accounting is to use some aggregation by parts method, which is predisposed to commit double counting, omission, and bureaucratic inconsistencies. As an alternative, we propose to work with a social epidemiological model. First, we present a result by means of a log linear model which shows evidence of hazard factors and vulnerability factors at work. We then simplify the model by deleting the variables that are not significant in a linear formulation. Lastly, we give our estimate of economic damage for the case of the North East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 11, 2011 and alert that the true damage may well be the double of government??s estimate.     

比较经济体制研究的新方法：历史的比较制度分析

“历史的比较制度分析”(Historical and Comparative Institution Analysis, HCIA)是20世纪90年代才刚刚在西方兴起的一种崭新的理论和学说。其主要代表人物是美国斯坦福大学的阿夫纳·格雷夫(Avner Greif)教授。虽然它产生的时间不长,但其独特新颖的研究视角、富有创造性的研究方法、别具一格的理论框架、灵活实用的分析工具以及令人瞩目的研究成果,已经引起了国际学术界越来越密切的关注和重视。它的出现和发展为比较经济体制研究提供了一种全新的研究视角和分析方法,也为其开拓了更广阔的研究领域。本文,拟从方法论的角度,探讨历史的比较制度分析的学术特征与成就,并对其进行简要的评析。……