The Grameen Bank as Progressive Institutional Adjustment

Over the past 25 years, a variety of Neoliberal reforms were introduced. Instead of growth, stability, and the narrowing of income gaps, however, we have seen stagnation, volatility, and increased inequality. The paper examines the theory that justified these policies, describes an alternative approach, and takes a brief look at a small group of Latin American countries in the aftermath of the Mexican Crisis. It is shown that not only does the alternative view raise serious doubts about the efficacy of Neoliberalism, but that those countries that refused to follow suit were better protected against contagion after the December Mistake.     

金融市场化、配置效率与地区研发创新

研发创新是决定长期经济增长的关键因素。研究与开发结果的不确定性和收益回报周期长特点,使其高度依赖于外部融资,因而需要金融市场有效发挥要素配置功能。有效率的金融市场是影响研发的重要因素。利用中国分省企业经营环境指数和中国省级宏观数据研究金融市场化对地区自主研发创新的影响,是一个新尝试。研究结果表明,金融市场化通过改善外部融资环境有效地提高了地区研发创新水平,平均而言,正规金融融资便利化程度提高1个标准差,人均专利申请量和人均专利批准量分别提高19.23%和16.39%;民间金融便利化程度提高1个标准差,人均专利申请量和人均专利批准量分别提高25.84%和21.05%。     

International restructuring,health and the advanced industrial state

For the better part of the last century, the debate between ‘liberalisers’ and ‘interventionists’ marked thinking about the relationship between finance and development. It has by now been superseded by the emergence of the discourse of financial system development, which links economic growth to the development of the financial sector. As the risks entailed by wholesale financial reform came to the fore in the financial crises of the 1990s and early 2000s, emphasis shifted from liberalising financial markets to building institutional frameworks to accommodate investment. Arguably, the emergence of the financial-system-development discourse occurred within a wider shift in the neoliberal paradigm towards institution building. These changes are particularly pronounced in East and Southeast Asia. This paper argues that a convergence of opinions has occurred between Asian financial policy elites, previously strong supporters of the bank-based developmental state model, and the liberalisers, represented through international financial institutions such as the IMF. This consensus is geared towards the expansion of capital markets and a generally more neoliberal, market-oriented mode of economic governance. To illustrate this claim, this paper traces institutional changes in Asian financial systems since the 1997-98 financial crisis. Although local characteristics remain, a common feature is the more salient role of bond markets in the financial system. This is the result of the conscious and deliberate development of local currency debt markets by policymakers. However, the new consensus narrows down the space in which economic policymaking takes place. Yet, by re-politicising financial system development, this space could be broadened again.     

金融危机动荡下的甘肃经济稳定与发展

2008年由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机已全面蔓延,渗透到各个经济领域和经济区域,甘肃经济也同样受到金融危机的;中击。面对金融危机,首先要保持经济稳定、社会稳定,与此同时应充分利用国家政策,发挥政府在金融危机中的主导作用,甘肃经济发展的也应遵循这一原则和路径。甘肃经济在此次金融危机中挑战与机遇并存,甘肃省要充分利用金融危机中国家的相关政策,加快甘肃基础设施建设,调整产业结构,实现甘肃经济的稳定与发展。     

金融漏损、效率修正与"反哺效应"——中国转轨经济金融低效率与经济高增长研究的新视角

在我国渐进式的转轨经济过程中,在政府强控制金融与高额储蓄条件下,体制内经济体发生金融漏损并由体制外经济顺守,修正了金融初次配置效率,形成了金融低效率与经济高增长并存的结果。理论与实践表明,体制内金融的外向漏损间接支持了体制外经济的成长发展,形成了"反哺效应",构成了一个非正规的经济增长良性循环模式。文章从金融效率与经济增长角度分析了我国转轨过程中的金融漏损、效率修正与经济增长,对我国转轨经济中金融低效率与经济高增长现象进行了分析。文章认为应通过进一步推进国有企业与国有银行产权改革、加快民间金融发展等措施改进与提高我国的金融效率。     

Do Educational Attainments Influence Attitudes Toward Gender Equality in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Abstract

Although there is a plethora of literature on gender equality and women empowerment, studies on whether (and to what extent) educational attainments affect people’s attitudes toward gender equality are lacking. This is particularly true for Africa, a mostly male-dominated continent. In this article, we use data from the Wave 6 of the World Values Survey to empirically examine the relationship between educational attainments and attitudes toward gender equality among people in 5 countries in Africa–Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Our results, based on different measures of gender equality and econometric specifications, consistently reveal that the higher the level of education acquired, the more liberal and favorable the individual’s attitudes are toward gender equality.     

中国金融制度变革的地区差异研究

由于经济增长与金融成长有极强的内生关联，中国东部与中西部经济发展的地带性差异决定了金融体系的分布格局和发展层次。从面上看，随着发达地区经济的发展和金融的深化，优势要素会由区域内向区域外扩散和辐射，在一定程度上改造落后地区的经济-金融因素，区域金融的发展空间得以扩展，从而逐步形成统一的金融市场。从点上看，民营经济的快速发展和民间金融对民营经济的内在性金融支持，决定了民间金融在金融体制变革和金融市场化过程中的重要地位。     

European Banking Distress and EMU: Institutional and Macroeconomic Risks

Financial stability in Europe has received renewed attention with the advent of EMU. This paper examines whether EU country banking systems are particularly vulnerable to systemic risk. Our approach is to explore episodes of banking sector distress for a large sample of countries, highlighting the experience of the EU. We estimate multivariate probit models linking the likelihood of banking problems to a set of macroeconomic variables and institutional characteristics such as aspects of bank supervision and regulation, restrictions on bank portfolios, and development of the banking system. Given these characteristics, the model predicts a low probability of banking sector distress in EMU countries.
JEL classification : G 21; E 44; F 41     

Organized Labor and Institutional Economics

This presidential address to the Association for Evolutionary Economics was delivered at the annual meeting in San Diego, California, on January 5, 2013.     

制度变迁、金融结构与经济增长--基于中国的实证研究

本文采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,从理论上分析了制度变迁、金融结构调整与经济增长三者之间的相互作用机理;从实证上通过在金融结构与经济增长模型中引入能够综合反映制度变迁的制度变量,验证了国家制度变迁对一国金融结构与经济增长会起到促进或制约的作用.当制度供给与金融结构和经济增长对制度的需求达到均衡时,国家制度安排会优化金融结构、促进经济增长,否则便会出现规模与效率的"反比"现象,从而回答了转型国家规模与效率的悖论问题,进而给出了我国金融结构升级的选择路径及相关政策建议.     

环境规制、金融资源配置与绿色发展效率

环境规制强度的提高,是否提高了地区绿色发展效率是我国发展环境友好型经济过程中面临的重要问题。采用Super-SBM模型估计了2000—2015年中国省级行政区绿色发展效率,考察了环境规制对地区绿色发展效率的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明:我国绿色发展效率总体呈现先降后升再平稳的趋势,且东部地区绿色发展效率明显高于中部、西部地区;环境规制强度提高显著降低了地区绿色发展效率,且这一影响随着时间的推移逐渐减弱;影响机制检验表明,环境规制的加强通过促使金融资源向第二产业配置从而降低了绿色发展效率。     

“两次金融危机”产生的原因与影响及对中国经济发展的启迪

分析1997年"亚洲金融危机"和2007年"世界金融危机"产生的原因及其异同点与"两次金融危机"对世界及其中国经济发展的影响.在此基础上,探讨"两次金融危机"对中国经济发展的启迪,为中国在今后经济发展中防范和应对金融危机提供科学依据.     

金融危机背景下的金融稳定：挑战与对策

国际金融危机的不断发展,使国际金融和经济环境不断恶化,给我国的金融稳定带来了严峻挑战。我们必须充分认识我国金融稳定所面临的种种挑战,积极采取相关措施,有效维持金融稳定,保证金融功能的良好运转,尽快消除金融危机的不利影响,推动我国经济增长的快速恢复。     

A Kaleckian Perspective on Financialisation and Distribution in Three Main Eurozone Countries before and after the Crisis: France,Germany and Spain

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we examine if, and to what extent, a general Kaleckian analysis of the potential effects of financialisation on income shares in advanced capitalist economies is of relevance for the three Eurozone countries under investigation—France, Germany and Spain—in the period before the recent financial and economic crisis. Second, we study changes in the financialisation–distribution nexus that have occurred in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis. We find that the countries examined here have shown broad similarities regarding redistribution before the crisis, although there are some differences in the underlying determinants. These differences have continued during the period after the crisis and have led to different results in the development of distribution since then.     

An Alternative Approach to the Institutional Economics of the Eurozone Crisis

I argue that the Eurozone crisis is neither a crisis of European sovereigns in the sense of governmental over-borrowing, nor a crisis of sovereign debt market over-lending. Rather, it is a function of the “sovereign debt market” institution itself. Crisis, I argue, is not an occurrence, but an element fulfilling a precise technical function within this institution. It ensures the possibility of designating — in the market’s day-to-day mechanisms rather than analytical hindsight — normal (tranquil, undisturbed) market functioning. To show this, I propose an alternative view on the institutional economics of sovereign debt markets. First, I engage literature on the emergent qualities of the institutions “market” and “firm” in product markets, concluding that the point of coalescence for markets is the approximation of an optimal observation of consumer tastes. I then examine the specific institution “financial markets,” where the optimal observation of economic fundamentals is decisive. For the specific sub-institution “sovereign debt market,” I conclude that the fundamentals in question — country fundamentals — oscillate between a status of observable fundamentals outside of markets and operationalized fundamentals influenced by market movements. This, in turn, allows me to argue that the specific case of the Eurozone crisis is due to neither of the two causes mentioned above. Rather, the notion of “crisis” takes on a technical sense within the market structure, guaranteeing the separation of herd behavior and isomorphic behavior on European sovereign debt markets. By the same token, the so-called Eurozone crisis ceases to be a crisis in the conventional sense.     

Neoliberal growth models,monetary union and the Euro crisis. A post-Keynesian perspective

The paper offers an account of the Euro crisis based on post-Keynesian monetary theory and its typology of demand regimes. Neoliberalism has transformed social and financial relations in Europe but it has not given rise to a sustained profit-led growth process. Instead, growth has relied either on financial bubbles and rising household debt (‘debt-driven growth’) or on net exports (‘export-driven growth’). In Europe the financial crisis has been amplified by an economic policy architecture (the Stability and Growth Pact) that aimed at restricting the role of fiscal policy and monetary policy. This neoliberal economic policy regime in conjunction with the separation of monetary and fiscal spheres has turned the financial crisis of 2007 into a sovereign debt crisis in southern Europe.     

滞胀风险下的宏观经济调整与货币政策选择

随着金融危机向实体经济转移和扩散,我国经济增长出现下滑,已远低于潜在增长率;而由宽松货币政策所导致的广义货币供应量在不断增加,通货膨胀压力正逐步显现。在外需短期无法恢复、内需相对不足的情况下,滞胀的风险在逐步加大。VEC模型结果表明:货币流通速度、广义货币供应量增长速度共同决定我国通货膨胀率。当经济景气程度上升、货币流通速度加快时,货币供应量增长过快会引发通货膨胀。因此,现阶段应在有效监控经济景气程度和货币流通速度的基础上,对宏观经济政策进行微调,以便提高政策搭配效果,有效化解风险。     

美国经济危机原因及其影响的新解释——基于经济长波、货币供给与国际竞争的视角

美国经济危机是其新长波运行到顶后以朱格拉周期形式表现的一次调整,美国经济由此将步入缓慢增长的动荡时期。为满足长波扩张对巨额货币供给的需要,20世纪80年代美国金融体系进行了以金融创新为主要内容的重构,由此支撑了美国经济长达20多年的快速增长,并极大提升了美国的国际地位。但随着长波的演进,不仅内部的扩张动力逐渐衰竭,而且外部的相对竞争力也在快速下降,实体经济对新增货币的吸纳能力减弱,由此金融创新深化所创造的巨大货币供给就只能转向次贷和高杠杆的金融衍生产品。当实体经济与虚拟经济的背离达到一定程度时,经济危机也就不可避免。美国经济危机最终转化为世界经济危机,则是因为各主要国家之间的经济周期出现了高度的同步性,是它们之间相互叠加共振的结果。     

农村金融发展对农村经济增长的作用机理——基于内生增长理论的实证研究

基于内生增长理论的农村金融发展作用于农村经济增长的主要机理是农村金融发展通过储蓄效应、投资效应和资源配置效应推动物质资本积累、人力资本积累和技术进步,以促进农村经济增长。实证研究表明,农村金融发展通过规模促进农村经济增长的渠道是有效的;农村金融发展通过提高效率促进农村经济增长的渠道是无效的,也即当前农村金融发展效率不能促进农村经济增长。     

当前金融危机的根源及启示探析:一种马克思主义的视角

对于当前全球性金融危机产生的原因,中外学者有不同的见解;有的从技术层面或运行层面或监管层面去解释,有的从体制层面或制度层面去解释,都有各自的道理。但从深层次的根源上说,这次金融危机并未超越马克思关于经济危机的理论逻辑,其根源依然是由资本主义基本矛盾引发的。我国应对此次金融危机,首先要坚持和发展中国特色社会主义,抵制和消除新自由主义对我国的影响;其次要重视虚拟经济与实体经济的结合;再次要减少我国过高的外贸依存度;最后要防止金融与经济危机危害的继续扩大,加强对虚拟经济的有效监管。