Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?

We urge macroeconomists to abandon the 'natural rate' as an analytical device on the ground that it has become a source of great and growing confusion. But we press them to recognise that it has great potential as a policy tool provided we grasp the central idea of a hypothetical unemployment rate, which can be compared with the actual unemployment rate. We integrate three hypothetical unemployment rates with the help of an exploratory macro model and then present a quarterly series for each for Australia for the period 1986(2) to 1997(2). We explain how such series could help in policy-making.     

评资产化与资源化管理

自然资源具有资产和资源的两重性，资产化管理和资源化管理就成为自然资源管理的两种基本方式。本文在分析两种管理方式的各自优越性和局限性的基础上，借鉴国际上两种管理方式有效组合的经验，对改革我国现行的资源管理体制作一些探讨。     

长春堤上的樱花

从少年到青年,青年到中年,每当鼋头渚长春堤上的樱花盛开时,总是要赶着去看看的。因为。在我的心思里,总认为,樱花盛开时的那种美．是一种极致的美,一种难言的美。可是,回过头去．凝神细想,看了几十年的樱花,真正能够充分地领略到那种花开正当时的极致美,难言美．恐怕也就只有两三回吧。这又是何故呢？     

市场定价模式对汇率制度选择影响研究述评

汇率制度选择讨论一直以来都是开放宏观经济学的核心.而研究汇率制度选择的角度也是多方面的,但是从定价模式这个角度来探讨最优汇率制度则是近年来的事情.国内外经济学家在这方面倾注了许多努力,获得了丰硕的研究成果.本文以时间为脉络,全过程追溯了定价方式对汇率制度选择的影响以及其最新的拓展方向,本文也对经典文献中的观点作了点评.这些对于我国的汇率政策的制定有着重要的借鉴意义,这也是写作本文的初衷.     

国债期货与我国利率市场化推进——兼评国债期货仿真合约的功能发挥

随着我国金融体制改革进程的不断深入,利率市场化成为当前亟待解决的重难点问题.当前,国债期货重新推出条件成熟,国债期货的推出不仅有助于发现基准利率,更有助于规避利率风险,对我国利率市场化改革多有裨益.通过对国债期货仿真交易时期合约功能发挥的实证研究,发现国债期货与现货价格存在均衡关系,且初步表现出一定的风险规避功能.     

The Role of the Natural Rate of Interest in Monetary Policy

This paper examines the role of the natural rate of interestin the conduct of monetary policy. The natural rate figuresprominently in many theories of the business cycle and of inflationfluctuations, and therefore has the potential to play a keyrole in monetary policy given the current mandates of many centralbanks. However, the presence of financial imperfections andmeasurement uncertainty draw into question whether estimatesof the natural rate can be reliable indicators of excess demandpressures. Natural rate-based theories may, nonetheless, provideuseful guidance in the formulation of desirable monetary policies.(JELE21, E31, E43, E58)     

The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Australia: Estimates From a Structural Var

The concept of the natural rate of unemployment is widely used in the analysis and discussion of macroeconomic policy. It is, however, unobservable so that estimates of the natural rate are necessarily based on a particular theory of unemployment. Hence, measures of the natural rate, whether constant or time-varying, are necessarily model-dependent. Various series based on specific models have recently become available for Australia. We set out to compute a series for the natural rate based on a minimal theoretical structure captured by a two-variable structural vector-autoregressive (SVAR) model estimated using quarterly Australian data for the period 1978–1997. We assess the robustness of our estimates by varying both the theoretical restriction imposed on the model and the two variables included in the model. We find that the computed natural rate is quite sensitive to model specification, both in terms of the level and of the cyclical behaviour of the natural rate. We argue, however, that a particular variant of our model is strongly preferred to the others investigated. It produces an estimates natural rate series the behaviour of which is broadly consistent with that of series produced by others from more restrictive models.     

泰勒规则与我国货币政策反应函数——基于潜在产出、自然利率与均衡汇率的研究

潜在产出、自然利率和均衡汇率是货币政策决策和效果评价的重要参考基准。通过状态空间模型对我国潜在产出、自然利率和均衡汇率水平进行联合估计,并在此基础上通过建立一个包含汇率因素的"混合型"泰勒规则对我国货币政策反应函数进行估计,结果显示,我国货币政策行为对通货膨胀、产出缺口和汇率波动作出了较为及时和稳定的反应,但货币政策的前瞻性有待提高。     

自然失业率的机理与实证分析——基于资本构成理论的研究

依据马克思主义的资本构成、资本积累和资本循环理论,设计模型对自然失业率直接测量,从分析可知,自然失业率取决于人均资本量、资本构成、平均工资等变量。对我国1991～2009年自然失业率的实证分析显示,我国自然失业率稳定上升。提出应通过深化经济结构调整、调节收入分配两极分化等措施降低自然失业率。     

Endogenous Money,Fiscal Policy,Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate Regime: A Comment on Palley,Tymoigne and Wray

One of the main collective contributions of the various heterodox schools of monetary thought, such as circuit theory, Post Keynesian theory, modern money theory (MMT) and others, has been to stress the importance of the endogeneity of money via bank credit creation. It is necessary to stress the notion of a collective contribution because of the various claims and counter-claims to academic priority made in the literature. The recent exchange between T.I. Palley and E. Tymoigne and L.R. Wray in this journal provides a clear example of this. This response examines the differences between these writers in some detail.     

自然利率与中国宏观政策选择

本文讨论的核心是如何准确认识和理解自然利率,并尝试建立以自然利率为基础的宏观经济分析和政策决策框架。为此,本文首先在一个简单理论架构下对影响自然利率变化的因素及其作用机制进行归纳分析,之后分别利用半结构化模型、宏观计量模型和DSGE模型估计中国的自然利率。在此基础上,针对当前中国宏观经济运行中面临的突出问题和主要矛盾,探讨分析基于自然利率的宏观政策选择,以期为政策决策提供参考。主要结论如下:(1)整体而言,中国自然利率水平近年呈现出逐步下降特征,实际利率仍高于自然利率平均水平。(2)长期内,自然利率变化主要受潜在产出增速下降、TFP增长放缓以及人口结构变化等因素影响。短期内,受政策和经济预期不确定性影响较大。此外,投资专有技术进步增速降低、资本形成效率下降、政府支出不足、去杠杆政策等多种因素都会对自然利率产生影响。(3)在平衡好短期需求与中长期改革目标基础上,应以结构性改革为导向,避免追求名义扩张,促进以提升自然利率和潜在产出为目标的实际扩张。应加强宏观政策协调,促进全要素生产率提升;更加注重优化投资质量和投资结构,提高投资专有技术进步水平;更加重视稳定经济预期,降低宏观经济不确定性带来的负面影响。