地方政府竞争、土地垄断供给与城市化发展失衡

文章基于地方政府竞争和土地垄断供给的双重视角,利用中国1999—2012年的省级面板数据,对人口城市化与空间城市化的发展失衡现象及其内在机理进行了系统研究。理论研究发现,地方政府间以经济增长和财政收入增加为导向的竞争机制,为地方政府偏重推进空间城市化、忽视推进人口城市化提供了内在激励,而土地的政府垄断供给则为地方政府通过经营土地来实施这种偏重空间城市化的行为提供了手段。这两个因素叠加在一起,导致了人口城市化与空间城市化的发展失衡。实证检验发现,地方政府间竞争越激烈,土地供给数量越多,人口城市化与空间城市化发展失衡的程度就越严重。这表明,地方政府竞争和土地垄断供给对城市化发展失衡确实存在显著正向影响。推进地方政府竞争模式和土地供给制度改革,是实现中国人口城市化与空间城市化均衡发展的有效途径。     

香港科技创新发展研究--基于2018-2021年香港财政预算案

香港特别行政区第五届政府自任职以来展现出致力推动本地科技创新发展的强大决心并投入大量资源和精力。本文以本届香港特区政府发布的4份财政预算案为基础,采用定性研究方法对其进行解构分析,从特区政府角度考察香港科技创新发展政策的侧重点及当前发展趋势。研究发现,本届特区政府在支持香港有关科技创新发展政策上侧重于关注资金投入、平台建设、人才培养、企业研发及STEM教育5个方面,逐步形成以发展自身优势科研领域,打造智慧城市,争夺全球科技人才,引领经济转型升级为主的科技发展趋势。最后,针对香港目前面临的发展困局,提出了推动政策落实、融入粤港澳大湾区建设、打造国际化平台等推动科技创新长远发展的政策建议。     

中国省份营商环境评价:指标体系与量化分析

良好的营商环境,是建设现代化经济体系、促进高质量发展的重要基础。科学合理的评价体系攸关营商环境的持续优化。基于对国内外营商环境评价指标体系的梳理,本研究致力于构建中国省份营商环境的评价指标体系并对省份营商环境进行评价分析。按照“国际可比、对标世行、中国特色”的原则,本文以“十三五”规划纲要提出的“市场、政务、法律政策、人文”四个维度为一级指标,借鉴国内外营商环境评价指标体系并结合《优化营商环境条例》,确定二级指标和相应权重,构建出中国省份营商环境评价指标体系,并运用相关数据进行量化分析。结果表明,中国省份营商环境呈现出层次化特征,且在营商环境的子环境发展的均衡度上存在差异,七大区域在营商环境上的差异也非常明显。研究结论为省级政府优化营商环境、促进高质量发展提供了指引,也为后续探索宏观营商环境对微观企业行为与效应的影响奠定了基础。     

Capability and opportunism: Evidence from city officials in China

Opportunism is prevalent in political competition and public policy making. This paper investigates how opportunism is mitigated by capabilities among city leaders in China. Taking advantage of China’s institutional setup with ample bureaucratic transfers, the paper estimates leaders’ capabilities as their personal contributions to local economic growth. The paper finds strong evidence of political business cycles – a typical form of political opportunism – as manifested by a significant boost in the growth rate preceding the Communist Party’s national congress. However, more capable leaders are found to generate more modest political business cycles than less capable ones do. The findings suggest that, to the extent that political selections are associated with the long term reputation of officials, career-concerned opportunism is at least partially moderated by the selection of capable officials in China. The paper provides supportive evidence for the reputation model of political business cycles as well as enriches the study of government officials in weak institutional environments.     

地理集聚会优化商业信用环境吗？——来自浙江地级市的证据

以浙江案例为样本,运用空间计量法系统探讨地理集聚对商业信用环境影响。研究证实:(1)地理集聚对商业信用环境优化具有显著促进作用,产出集聚影响超过资本和就业集聚;(2)沿海地区由熟人社会向陌生人社会转变,伴随商业信用环境逐渐优化,非沿海地区信用环境对经济形势及资本特征较为敏感;(3)副省级城市制度门槛对地理集聚造成一定扭曲,显著降低商业信用环境;(4)资本集聚和就业集聚显著提高信用示范城市商业信用环境。     

地方政府支出有偏性、企业融资约束与经济结构失衡

文章基于地方政府视角下困扰当前中国经济增长的结构性现实问题，根据1993—2012年的中国省际年度数据，借鉴 Bernanke 等(1999)和 Fernández-Villaverde(2010)的分析思路，运用动态随机一般均衡模型，实证研究了经济结构失衡①与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加之间的内在逻辑关系。研究发现：(1)伴随着经济增长，东、中、西部的社会投资占 GDP 的比重不断地提高，而居民消费和劳动收入占 GDP 的比重则呈下降趋势，这些经济结构失衡的表现与由地方政府支出有偏性引起的政府投资增加是共存的。(2)通过对大企业模型、中小企业模型和粘性价格模型进行的模拟比较分析发现，地方政府发展经济的目的促使其支出行为表现为有偏性，引发了政府投资较大幅度的增加；基于融资约束，中小企业的投资增幅不大，而大企业投资高涨，引致了地方经济结构失衡的加剧，而在这传导机制中政府投资的正外部性、企业融资约束和金融摩擦担当重要角色。     

Technology business incubators and regional economic convergence in China

Previous researches often claim the benefits of technology business incubators (TBIs). There is, however, little systematic evidence of TBIs’ role in promoting local economic growth in China where regions are in different development stages. Furthermore, no study has examined TBIs’ contribution to economic convergence. This paper aims to answer this question, based on panel data of Chinese national technology business incubators and the host cities from 2008 to 2012. The results indicate that there exists economic convergence both nationwide and in the western regions of China and no evidence has been found in the eastern and midland regions. Initial analysis without considering the incubator’s characteristics showed that TBIs do not accelerate economic convergence nationwide. We further take the incubator’s characteristics into consideration. We find that non-state-owned TBIs and specialised TBIs can speed the converging process while state-owned TBIs and diversified TBIs have no influence on the process of regional economic convergence.     

财政分权、地方政府投资和区域经济增长——基于双固定效应模型的实证分析

改革开放后,地方政府转变为独立的经济利益主体,成为推动我国经济增长动力源之一。以中部地区为分析样本,运用双固定效应模型,实证研究了地方政府投资对经济增长的影响。研究结果显示,1994年的财政分税制改革后,中部六省的地方政府投资有力的推动了地方经济的增长,但是这种效应并不明显,这与政府投资的投资价值取向和标准有关。针对这一分析提出了优化地方政府投资行为的政策建议。     

A Philosopher's Comment on Philosophico-Economic Relations

Scottish philosophers in the eighteenth century interpreted the market economy as a “civil society,” a path toward freedom and a new morality, separate from monarchal government. They expected markets to be self regulating and expected them to function with ties to a moral life. The market was a civil order, but that vision was destroyed when corporations rose to power in succeeding centuries, and governments were enlarged to regulate markets. Today we see a concern about big corporations and government bureaucracy, and a return to the idea of a “civil society.” This article proposes that today's vision of “civil society” is advanced by an economy that returns to its principles of self (civil) regulation. Markets become civil and self regulating when government, business, and nonprofits cooperate to create systems of social accountability for the common good. A self-regulating market is constructed experimentally through civil associations with self-enforceable codes of conduct, civic-oriented partnerships, legislation, banking, investments, and corporations whose policies are based on stakeholder studies that reduce moral and financial costs. Modest steps toward a self-regulating economy offers a foundation for today's version of a “civil society.”     

社会资本对家族企业成长的影响

丰富的家族性和区域性社会资本促进了国内中小家族企业迅速发展,但也妨碍了企业融合外部优秀人才。通过制度建设,增加中观与宏观层面的社会资本,促进各种社会资本的融合,有利于企业进一步发展。     

政府引导基金本地投资对企业创新的影响

中国各地政府创业投资引导基金（以下简称政府引导基金）大多倾向于投资本地企业。通过私募通数据库搜集数据构造匹配样本,使用负二项分布模型,研究参股模式下政府引导基金本地投资对企业创新的影响。主要研究结论概括如下：①政府引导基金本地投资对企业创新的促进作用优于私人创投基金,非本地投资则与私人创投基金不存在显著差异;②政府引导基金投资本地高科技企业对创新的促进作用优于私人创投基金,投资本地非高科技企业则与私人创投基金不存显著差异;③无论投资扩张期还是成熟期的本地企业,政府引导基金对企业创新的促进作用都优于私人创投基金;④政府引导基金本地投资主要是通过选择效应（而非处理效应）促进企业创新。     

新自由主义政府观与国际金融危机

新自由主义政府观一直以"小政府、大社会"的政府观著称于世,但这种消极保守式的政治经济主张已无法适应风险社会的要求,这是国际金融危机爆发的根源之一。政府积极有为才是应对风险社会和抗击金融危机的根本之道。但在政府积极有为的过程中,需时刻防范"利维坦"的出现。     

经济政策不确定性与家族企业创新——融资约束及政府补助视角

家族企业作为社会发展的主要参与者,在促进经济增长方面发挥着不可替代的作用。家族企业若想实现长期发展,必然依靠创新。然而,我国家族企业普遍面临创新投入不足、创新产出效率低下等问题。基于2010—2018年中国上市家族企业数据,分析经济政策不确定性对于家族企业创新是否存在激励作用。结果发现,经济政策不确定性提高,会对家族企业创新研发活动投入与产出产生正向激励作用,促进家族企业创新。从融资约束与政府补助视角,分析两者在上述正向激励作用中的调节作用。结果表明,对于融资约束小以及受到政府补助的家族企业而言,其受到经济政策不确定性的正向激励作用更显著,有助于其开展创新研发活动。结论不仅验证了经济政策不确定性对于家族企业创新的激励作用,还揭示了融资约束以及政府补助的调节作用,可为政府制定相应补助政策,构建完善的金融市场提供理论支持和经验证据。     

False prosperity: Rethinking government support for farmers’ cooperatives in China

The rapid development of farmers’ cooperatives in rural China cannot be separated from government support. To ensure the growth of farmers’ cooperatives, the Chinese government uses it as a key performance indicator for its local institutions. Superficially, rural China's cooperative population and membership size witnessed rapid growth during the first decade after the Farmers’ Specialized Cooperatives Law was enacted in 2007; however, such government intervention also leads to non-standard phenomena due to market distortion. Using nationally representative survey data from 504 cooperatives in Jiangsu, Jilin, and Sichuan provinces, this paper provides a reliable estimate of the “shell cooperative” rate around 2014. The empirical study sheds further light on the role of government during the period of rapid but chaotic growth by a subset containing 241 marketing cooperatives. Results show that direct administrative intervention leads to the emergence of many shell cooperatives (approximately 37%). Further study also confirms that task-oriented policy support is only positively associated with the nominal coverage ratio but has no significant relationship with cooperatives’ function. This study provides new insights into the formation of shell cooperatives and suggests that direct administrative intervention may not be a good strategy for promoting the sustainable development of farmers’ cooperatives.     

中国经济改革:背景、机制与挑战

经过三十余年的经济改革,中国的经济取得了巨大的进步,中国这条巨龙也正在逐渐回归到她在世界经济中应有的位置。这种经济改革是如何成功的?本文认为,承接于特定的历史经济背景,中国经济中三类主要的行为主体(中央、地方、民众)根据自身的条件进行了事实上的互动式的协调分工,各自对既有的约束条件进行突破,并在互动演进的发展过程中逐步建立了新的规则,这些规则所确立的激励与约束极大地调动了各参与主体的积极性,实现了从事必躬亲到各司其职的职能转换。正是在这些过程中,中国经济逐渐得到发展并获得前所未有的成就。但我们同时强调,在经济改革的过程中,也必须认清体制的不足,积极应对新的挑战。     

知识密集型服务业发展的影响因素——基于空间面板数据模型

在界定知识密集型服务业的基础上,构建空间面板数据模型,对2005—2010年我国知识密集型服务业发展的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的知识密集型服务业发展存在明显的正向空间依赖性;区域创新环境在时间维度上具有显著的促进作用,但在空间维度上的作用不显著;教育支撑在空间维度上具有显著的促进作用,但在时间维度上的作用不显著;外部知识联系、政府行为对知识密集型服务业发展具有显著的促进作用。     

Co-creation of business models for smallholder forest farmers’ organizations: Lessons learned from rural Ethiopia and Tanzania

Forest farmers’ organizations (FFOs) have recently gained scholarly attention as a collective action instrument to upgrade value chains. However, insights into possible business models and organizational forms of FFOs remain fragmented. This study thus aimed to co-create FFO business models in order to assess the business models in the context of the regulatory framework and the value chain upgrading theory. The Input–Output scheme and the Business Model Canvas (BMC) were merged to create an analytical lens. Participatory workshops with two farmers’ organizations, each in Ethiopia and Tanzania, were conducted and triangulated with ten focus group discussions and 25 key informant interviews. The co-created business models reflected the grassroots entrepreneurial potential of smallholders to envision FFOs. The gaps requiring external support, namely the know-how in accessing microfinance, silvicultural practices, and entrepreneurship, were revealed. We argue that the transformation from a farmers’ organization to an FFO enables wood value chain upgrading. Diversifying wood with non-wood products is key for FFOs. Regardless of how the regulatory framework shapes external support, the local government plays a pivotal role in facilitating the connection between FFOs and (non-)governmental support actors. Through this research, we develop suggestions for further empirical studies and offer several recommendations for decision-makers.     

The Confidence Trap: Japan’s Past Bubble and China’s Recent Bubble

This paper explores the origin of China’s recent credit and asset boom by comparing it with the Japanese bubble economy in the late 1980s by focusing on the asymmetric pattern of financial liberalisation under high savings. It argues that (1) both cases show a ‘confidence trap’ in that policy-makers of the government shared a complacent mindset that they can achieve the optimal mix of market liberalisation and repression, while believing that their political economic system is fundamentally different from others; (2) Such complacent confidence precipitated the supply-side driven financial reforms, in which both governments tried to diversify the credit channels of bank deposits by promoting non-bank financial intermediaries; (3) Exogenous shocks played a pivotal role in enforcing the government to take aggressive monetary easing and fiscal expansionary measures. But the Chinese case is different from the Japanese case in that (1) local politics has promoted a ‘too secure to fail’ situation in which rent-seeking activities are difficult to be detected, thus aggravating the hidden systemic risks; (2) China needs to liberalise its capital account with the more strengthened macroprudential regulatory governance, as the global foreign exchange markets have drastically changed from the period of the 1980s.     

Tax competition,tax exporting and higher-government choice of tax instruments for local governments

This paper presents a theoretical model with tax exporting due to external ownership of a fraction θ of the land in each local jurisdiction. There are n local jurisdictions in a metropolitan area (n≥1) and many metropolitan areas in a world economy. The paper examines the usage of business property taxes and source-based wage taxes by local jurisdictions, first in the presence of and then in the absence of residence-based lump-sum taxes, and how this depends on θ and n. The paper then examines the choice of a world, national or state government as to whether to allow local (metropolitan or sub-metropolitan) governments to use business property taxes, wage taxes or both, assuming that the local governments choose the actual tax rates.     

企业科技成果转化的政府财税政策研究

本文基于博弈的视角,采用逆向归纳法对企业和政府各自的行为决策进行分析,研究了垄断市场下政府推动企业科技成果转化的财税政策。研究结果表明:政府采用财税政策能够激励企业科技成果转化;对生产日常必需品的企业宜采用税收优惠政策,对生产非日常必需品的企业以及奢侈品的企业宜根据产品固定成本的比例来选择补贴方式,对固定成本比例高而变动成本比例很低的企业宜采用投入补贴的方式,对固定成本比例低而变动成本比例高的企业宜采用税收优惠的方式。以上结论对政府部门科学选择补贴方式具有重要的指导意义。