产权、法律与公司治理

近年来针对公司治理的实证研究发现,产权、法律、市场以及企业组织形式等对公司治理机制具有重要影响.一个国家的产权和法律制度决定着其公司治理结构的演进路径和特征.在我国新兴加转轨的资本市场上,由于缺乏对投资者的有效司法保护,其他外部市场机制如何替代司法保护不足以促进公司治理改革和完善,将成为未来研究的重要课题之一.     

Forecasts of the managed futures market – an empirical analysis

Alternative investments, including managed futures, are primarily intended for institutional investors and for very wealthy individual investors. It therefore seems logical to assume, that the increase of wealth on a global scale can be a factor impacting the value of transactions in individual segments of the alternative-investment market. The purpose of this article is to indicate the factors affecting growth of managed futures transactions. Another research goal is to answer the question: Does the increase of wealth on a global scale affect the value of the managed futures transactions? The article will also present short-term forecasts of the transactions on the managed futures market for the years 2015–2017. The forecasts which will be constructed are meant to present possible scenarios of the market’s further development. Evolution of the alternative investment segment leads to development of those categories, which fulfil the expectations of market participants and meet the requirement and expiration of the remaining investments which do not attract investors and are no longer accepted by them.     

如何运用“软资源”─—企业无形资产策略谈

由商标品牌、技术专利、商业秘密、商誉、专营特许权等组成的企业无形资产，可视作企业运行的“软资源”。无形资严“软资源”在企业经营中正发挥着愈来愈重要的作用。无形资产的开发策略有：营造规范、塑造形象、购实专利等。无形资产的运用策略有：用足牌子、扩大市场、输出管理等。无形资产的维护策略有：全员维护、法律维护、及时维护等。     

Internet searches and transactions on the Dutch housing market

We use Google searches of the word ‘mortgage’ to explain monthly housing transactions in the Netherlands in the period from 2004 until 2015. Our estimates indicate that Google searches of the previous months are significantly positively associated with housing transactions in the current month. This shows evidence that Internet search data can provide information about real market behaviour.     

A stylized model of home buyers’ and bankers’ behaviours during the 2007-2009 US subprime mortgage crisis: a predatory perspective

We examine the behaviour of market agents during the years leading to the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis using a stylized capital asset pricing model model. In our study, an average investor eager to make money by flipping houses meets a banker who offers him subprime mortgage deals. We refer to recent research that shows the mechanics of the psychological and behavioural components of these two market agents. In particular, much in line with the famous Stanford experiment, it is assumed that investors adopt a predator or a prey position. Our analysis shows that, given a historical tendency towards financial predatory acts on the part of market agents (including buyers), government regulations should be adapted and strengthened to face this dooming reality.     

美国次级房贷危机对中国房贷和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

美国次级房货危机对中国房货和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

当前全球性金融危机的来由和发展趋势研究

由次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机,其背后更深层次的原因是牙买加国际货币体系的天然缺陷以及美国持续的内外失衡造成的.从目前的发展形势来看,当前金融危机不仅造成了全球金融市场的剧烈动荡和恐慌、信贷市场的急剧萎缩,严重打击了全球投资者和消费者的信心,延缓了全球实体经济增长的速度,而且提出了改革当前国际货币金融体系、增加国际金融组织在维护全球金融体系稳定的责任等重要课题.     

The Emergence of Concentrated Ownership Structures in East Germany: the implications for enterprise restructuring ∗

In the transitional economies of East and Central Europe, privatization is widely considered essential for transforming the large state-owned enterprises. However, eager to expose the public enterprises to ‘hard budget constraints’, economists have neglected the importance of who the owners are. Studies of ownership structures and post-privatization restructuring in east Germany provide evidence that ownership matters for transformation success. The adoption of west German institutions in the east and the sale of state industrial property in concentrated shares to ‘insider’ investors seem to have created good conditions for the long-term committed investments essential for the rebuilding of tangible and intangible assets in east German enterprises. However, the control structures of a sample of enterprises reveal a wide range of investment strategies between types of corporate investors. Just as legal and financial institutions set constraints on ownership structure, the ownership structure sets constraints on the range of investment choices. Whether committed investments occur will depend on constrained strategic decisions of the new private owners.     

浅析网上无形市场与传统专业市场的替代性与互补性

网上无形市场和传统专业市场的互替与互补取决于交易主体的理性选择。买卖双方会通过对网上交易的内生交易成本与两种市场交易方式的外生交易成本进行博弈比较来选择最优的流通方式,从而使不同交易制度间呈现出互替与互补状态。网上交易的内生交易成本量则由当该内生交易成本和降低其发生所造成的外生交易成本这两者的总和达到最低时的资源配置量所决定。     

The main determinants of subprime securitization in the Spanish RMBS securities

This article is a model to identify the determinants of subprime securitizations. In several countries, there is no classification of the underlying assets. Consequently, investors have fewer tools to identify which securitizations are subprime. Using a sample of mortgage securitization transactions issued in Spain from 1998 until the first half of 2009, we analyse the effects of a great securitization expansion. According to previous literature, we identify main determinants of residential mortgage-backed security default rate and construct a prediction model of default rate. By means of different probit models, our results show the importance of loan to value and seasoning, among other determinants, as predictive indicators of default rates. The results obtained point to more relaxed lending standards due to higher securitization levels. Our findings help to gain a more accurate perspective of the true effects of the mortgage securitization process and reinforce the role of certain determinants as default predictors in a context without a classification of underlying assets.     

军民协同创新中知识产权归属问题研究

军民协同创新活动中,知识产权归属问题是影响协同创新成效的重要因素。据此,提出计划主导、计划市场共同作用和市场主导3种军民协同创新模式,分析了军民协同创新知识产权归属的主要问题。计划主导、计划市场共同作用、市场主导3种模式下的知识产权归属应分别坚持“平衡利益、鼓励创新”、“注重效率、侧重长远”、“经济效率优先”原则,相应地采取“法律规范、兼顾合约”、“章程式契约”、“尊重市场、契约优先”的思路进行制度设计。同时,还要从军民融合深度发展战略、知识产权保护环境、配套政策举措、法律制度等方面提供外部环境保障和激励。     

我国自然文化遗产景区门票价格持续上涨的产权分析

价格是市场交易的体现,市场交易的实质是产权的交易。因此,什么样的产权制度就决定什么样的市场交易,并最终决定交易的价格。我国自然文化遗产景区门票价格持续上涨的根本原因在于遗产景区现有的产权制度安排及其衍生的管理模式。只有改革现有的产权制度及管理模式,才能从根本上遏制遗产景区门票价格持续上涨的趋势。     

农民住房财产权抵押能否激发农村金融市场*——基于银行贷款数据的实证分析

扩展抵押品范围是缓解农村金融困境的重要途径。在这一思路下，农民住房财产权抵押被寄予厚望，成为近年来农村政策改革的重要方向。本文使用2010—2016年1 024家农信社和农商行的数据，利用2015年12月国务院在天津市蓟州区等59个试点县（市、区）开展为期两年的农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点这一“准自然实验”，对农民住房财产权抵押对涉农贷款供给的影响进行了检验。本文认为，现阶段农民住房面临着价值评估难、抵押物处置难的问题，抵押效果不佳。实证结果显示，农民住房财产权抵押没有显著增加涉农贷款供给，对农村金融的供给作用有限。本文在考虑了农民住房财产权抵押对其他担保方式的替代作用、农地经营权抵押和“三块地”改革的影响之后，上述结果依然稳健。本文的政策启示是，政府应着力做好农房抵押贷款改革的配套措施，推动宅基地制度改革，探索扩大农民住房财产权的受让范围，充分挖掘住房财产权的价值潜力，缓解抵押物处置难问题。     

Do the GSEs expand the supply of mortgage credit? New evidence of crowd out in the secondary mortgage market

The dramatic government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September, 2008 was motivated in part by a desire to ensure a continued flow of credit to the mortgage market. This study examines a closely related issue: the extent to which GSE activity crowds out mortgage purchases by private secondary market intermediaries. Evidence of substantial crowd out suggests that government support for the GSEs may be less warranted, whereas the absence of crowd out implies that GSE loan purchases enhance liquidity.Using 1994–2008 HMDA data for conventional, conforming sized loans, three distinct periods with regard to GSE crowd out are apparent. From 1994 to 2003, the share of loans sold to the secondary market increased from 60 to over 90%, private sector and GSE market shares of loan purchases were roughly similar for most market segments, and IV estimates indicate relatively little GSE crowd out of private secondary market purchases. From 2004 to 2006, private loan purchases boomed and dominated those of the GSEs, while IV estimates indicate crowd out jumped to 50% at the peak of the boom. This is especially true in the market for home purchase as opposed to refinance loans. With the crash in housing and mortgage markets in 2007, private sector intermediaries pulled back, the GSEs regained market share, and evidence of GSE crowd out disappeared in both the home purchase loan and refinance markets. These patterns suggest that the degree of GSE crowd out varies with market conditions and that the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac likely served to enhance liquidity to the mortgage market during the 2007–2009 financial crisis.     

浅谈商业银行房地产抵押贷款风险防范

商业银行房地产抵押贷款风险主要有：以设定抵押后建的设施扩大贷款、以划拨土地抵押贷款、以预售商品房和在建工程抵押贷款和以亏损企业财产贷款。防范此类贷款风险的措施主要有：明确抵押物的法定范围、规范土地使用权抵押操作等。     

农民住房财产权抵押能否激发农村金融市场*——基于银行贷款数据的实证分析

扩展抵押品范围是缓解农村金融困境的重要途径。在这一思路下，农民住房财产权抵押被寄予厚望，成为近年来农村政策改革的重要方向。本文使用2010—2016年1 024家农信社和农商行的数据，利用2015年12月国务院在天津市蓟州区等59个试点县（市、区）开展为期两年的农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点这一“准自然实验”，对农民住房财产权抵押对涉农贷款供给的影响进行了检验。本文认为，现阶段农民住房面临着价值评估难、抵押物处置难的问题，抵押效果不佳。实证结果显示，农民住房财产权抵押没有显著增加涉农贷款供给，对农村金融的供给作用有限。本文在考虑了农民住房财产权抵押对其他担保方式的替代作用、农地经营权抵押和“三块地”改革的影响之后，上述结果依然稳健。本文的政策启示是，政府应着力做好农房抵押贷款改革的配套措施，推动宅基地制度改革，探索扩大农民住房财产权的受让范围，充分挖掘住房财产权的价值潜力，缓解抵押物处置难问题。     

The Positive Externalities of Chapter 13 “Cramdowns” Could Prevent the Next Foreclosure Crisis

Revision of Bankruptcy Code 11 U.S.C. § 1322(b)(2) would permit “cramdowns” wherein bankruptcy judges would administer the modification of residential mortgages only when mortgage-lending abuses were most rampant (a real estate bubble). Foreclosure spill-over effects systemically worsened the housing crisis and were not evenly diffused throughout the broader housing market. Throughout 2003–2006, an oversupply of underpriced mortgage finance emanating from lax underwriting standards bid up residential prices. Relaxation of underwriting protocols came about from the mortgage market’s institutional swing from regulated agency securitization (predominantly government-sponsored enterprises “GSEs”) to unregulated securitization (shadow banking). This resulted in an untenable residential-price bubble as synthetically inexpensive credit from investors’ mispricing amplified mortgage demand, while greater mortgage quantity nudged up housing prices. The result was a self-referential cycle of waning residential prices supporting and perpetuating nigh incessant foreclosures: the bubble had burst. Cramdowns would incentivize lenders to be less inclined to loosen underwriting standards, or when done, to include this factor in the risk premium of the cost of credit. Enhancing Chapter 13 with the muscle to alter residential mortgages would ameliorate an institutionally structural issue endemic to the past (and upcoming?) foreclosure crisis.     

土地承包经营权抵押的可行性分析

土地承包经营权抵押是农村产权流转改革的必要组成部分,现实中存在着发展的需求与可行性。但目前中国《物权法》、《担保法》、《土地承包法》等相关法律对土地承包经营权抵押有着相当程度的限制,实践中还有农民失地风险、土地用途改变风险、抵押权变现风险和金融风险等多方面潜在因素的影响,导致目前土地承包经营权抵押不能得到大范围推广。但这些潜在风险都可以通过配套法律制度的完善得到防范,建议通过修改法律规定、建立农村土地承包经营权流转服务中心、引进专业中介机构服务、出台金融扶持政策等多种渠道达到促进合法流转、保障农民权益的目标。     

上市公司财务舞弊现象透析

20世纪90年代以来,中国乃至世界范围上市公司的财务舞弊行为日益活跃,给投资者及相关财务信息使用者带来了严重损失,也给资本市场带来很大冲击。应从多视角透视上市公司财务舞弊现象,总结其舞弊手段,制止并减少财务舞弊行为。