Mergers in Regulated Industries: the Uses and Abuses of Event Studies

Merging utilities are frequently required to share the economic benefits of a merger with ratepayers. These benefits are often measured using stock price movements at the time of the merger announcement. While event studies of this sort can be a powerful and appropriate tool, improper application and interpretation can lead to misleading conclusions. In this paper, we review the basic event study approach to merger evaluation and discuss some of the complicating factors. We describe both flawed and correctly done event studies submitted in the merger application of SBC Communications and Pacific Telesis and some additional case studies.     

Data Survey: Developing the Statistical Longitudinal Census Dataset and Identifying Its Potential Uses

A number of longitudinal surveys have been run in Australia since the 1990s. Recognising the increasing community demand for longitudinal data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics embarked on the creation of a longitudinal dataset, based on the Australian Census of Population and Housing. The key feature of this project is to link a 5 per cent sample of the 2006 Census to subsequent Censuses using a combination of variables available on the Census, thus forming a Statistical Longitudinal Census Dataset (SLCD). This article aims to provide the research community with an overview of the SLCD.     

Technometrics: Origins, historical evolution and new directions

This paper analyses the origins and historical evolution of technometrics, a discipline that measures and evaluates technological change with important policy implications. Technometric approaches, initiated in the 1950s, with the pioneering researches carried out by the scholars of The RAND Corporation staff. In the second half of the twentieth century, technometrics becomes a distinct field of investigation, characterised by the coming together of several disciplines, such as econometrics, engineering and applied mathematics, mathematical and multivariate statistics, and so on. This survey presents the main techniques of technometrics, developed over the course of time, showing their potential and methodological difficulties. Some concluding remarks and lessons learned complete the research.     

Scenario building: Uses and abuses

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.     

Regional Accounts of India: Methods,New Estimates,and Their Uses

For large economies with substantial regional variation, it is of great importance for policymakers and economic analysis that macro‐economic statistics are broken down by region. This paper reviews the regional accounts in India, discusses their role in Indian federal and state policies, and provides new estimates to cover major data gaps. Statistics on domestic product by Indian state, broken down by industry, are regularly published. But despite demands and recommendations by various commissions and policymakers, a comprehensive system of regional accounts is yet to be developed. New estimates for the period 1993–2010 are presented for saving and the macro‐economic expenditure by Indian states, like final consumption, capital formation, and trade balance. They show, for example, that some of the fastest growing Indian states have increased their saving and investment rates to 50 percent of their domestic product.     

我国开征环境税:源起、机理与模式

经济增长与环境质量存在依存关系,即经济增长初期会造成环境质量恶化,但到达一个转折点后,经济增长又会引致环境污染状况的改善.由于环境污染具有"负的外部性"特征,因此,治理环境污染需要政府规制,而开征环境税是一种最具效率和公平的规制手段.目前我国经济仍处于增长时期,整个国家税制体系尚不完善,比较适合采取融入性的环境税模式.而在社会经济利益关系已经理顺,整体税制体系比较完善,税收管理水平较高的条件下可以选择独立性环境税模式.     

资源错配的行业根源及其对全要素生产率的影响

基于涵括全部行业的中国经济行业生产率数据库,Jorgenson增长核算模型被运用于测算中国全要素生产率(TFP)的增长率,资本和劳动投入的重新配置效应被纳入核算框架以考察其对TFP的影响.随后,资本和劳动重新配置效应被分解为要素投入增长率与服务价格两项以探索其行业来源及其成因.测度结果显示,1978-2018年,中国TFP年均增长率为0.90％,其中0.32％来自资本和劳动重新配置的净效应,后者贡献了 36％的中国TFP增长率.将资本和劳动重新配置效应分解至行业层面,结果显示,中国资本市场存在错配现象主要是因为大量资本流入回报率较低的服务业部门,劳动配置效率较高的主要原因是大部分劳动从回报率较低的农业部门流入回报率较高的工业和服务业部门.     

矿产资源型地区生态系统服务功能:缘起、理论及最新进展

生态系统服务功能是指生态系统与生态过程所形成及所维持的人类赖以生存的自然环境条件与效用.我国矿产资源型地区生态系统服务功能因受到矿产资源开发的严重威胁正在不断恶化,建立该区域生态系统服务功能科学调控与可持续管理的长效机制至关重要.文章对矿产资源型地区生态系统服务功能的思想渊源和相关理论进行了系统梳理,总结该领域研究的最新进展,以此作为深入探讨生态系统服务功能与矿产资源统筹协调发展的切入点.     

红富豪,黑富豪

在印度新德里，富人家的豪宅与贫民窟往往只有几百米之隔，彼此长久相安无事；而在俄罗斯，老百姓看到富人及其保镖招摇过市时，都会冒出一句：“看着，又一个暴发户!”[编者按]